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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Downside:
Play Date: 08/05/2003
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$16.4; -1.11; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Put. CMTL rallied hard this year and then peaked out in July. It formed a head and shoudlers with a weak right shoulder, a sigin of a bit extra weakness. It made the breakodown Tuesday, dropping through the 50 day MVA (17.53) as volume rose. Still below average but rising. Under heavy distribution with tanking money flow. It may try to test higher back toward the 50 day before resuming the fall, but there is a lot of downside momentum here and we are loking at capturing some of it as it continues lower.
Volume: 312.297K Avg Volume: 428.318K
BUY POINT: $16.24 Volume=450K Target=$14.12 Stop=$17.56
POSITION: CQH UW - Sept. $17.50p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
BGEN (Biogen--$36.63; -1.46; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Put. BGEN is fading, breaking through the 200 day MVA after a 3 month head and shoulders pattern. It broke the 200 day (39.01), tested that level, and then rolled back over. Tuesday it fell sharply, though not on high volume. The move broke the neckline of the pattern and while we would like to see more volume the pattern speaks for itself with distribution and diving money flow. Looking at positoisn on a further move down from here.
Volume: 2.129M Avg Volume: 4.445M
BUY POINT: $36.42 Volume=4M Target=$33.25 Stop=$38.15
POSITION: BGQ UH - Sept. $40p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bgen.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/05/2003
IDNX (Identix--$6.86; -0.08; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idnx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on an 8 month base showing excellent 12 to 3 accumulation (12 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume) and outstanding money flow. IDNX has settled back to the 10 day MVA (6.82) on very low, below average volume, showing a doji at that level. This is a very nice pattern, but in this market we want to see it surging on volume. It has the foundation to do just that.
Volume: 254.053K Avg Volume: 532.772K
BUY POINT: $7.28 Volume=799K Target=$8.85 Stop=$6.77
POSITION: IDX LU - Dec. $7.50c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idnx.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
DCEL (Dobson Communications--$6.72; -0.06; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcel.html
STATUS: Flat base. Blasted out of a 3 month base in May, moved laterally in June, and then broke higher again. It has spent the past month moveing laterally again, holding the 18 day MVA (6.57) as it does. Excellent accumualation and surging money flow. Relative strength has broken out and is ready to do so again on the next move. Tuesday DCEL tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounded, holding up very well in a weak market. One of those stocks that looks as if it can make its own way.
Volume: 480.926K Avg Volume: 484.181K
BUY POINT: $7.06 Volume=726K Target=$8.48 Stop=$6.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcel.html
New Pre-Split Play
Play Date: 08/05/2003
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$26.12; -0.48; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 4:3 on 8-15-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MMSI broke out of a 10 month cup with handle base two weeks back and then added some fuel to the fire with a split announcement. The stock rallied from 23 to 28 and is now in a modest pullback to test the move, holding the 10 day MVA (25.05). Huge money flow and a relative strength breakout. This stock is moving well and we are looking to pick it up off the bounce on strong volume.
Volume: 132.169K Avg Volume: 122K
BUY POINT: $26.72 Volume=183K Target=$32 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: RMQ JE - Oct. $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mmsi.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/29/2003
CHINA (Chinadotcom--$11.92; +0.24; optionable): Chinese internet provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/china.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Slipped below the 18 day MVA (11.96) Monday, but then recovered some ground Tuesday, showing a tight doji right at that level. We will let the stock make the move for us and signal that it is the right time to enter with a high volume move back up.
Volume: 8.594M Avg Volume: 7.725M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $12.95; Next: $13.88 Volume=15M Target=$17.35 Stop=$12.88
POSITION: UIH LC - Dec. $15c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/china.html
Play Date: 07/08/2003
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$25; 0; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Flat. Still in a very nice pattern, edging back up to the top of the range, getting started Friday on a strong volume move. A bit wild Tuesday, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low (24.35) and rebounding. An excellent 3 month base showing solid 4 to 1 accumulation. Strong money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 194.3K Avg Volume: 337.318K
BUY POINT: New: 25.32 (orig. $24.92) Volume=435K Target=$29.94 Stop=$23.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$14.36; -0.15; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a very nice test of the breakout, forming a very nice handle here as it holds 14 on the low on lower, below average volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation, excellent money flow, and relative strength moving back up for the next breakout. Very nice pattern.
Volume: 434.176K Avg Volume: 696.045K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tklc.html
Play Date: 07/16/2003
XMSR (XM Satellite Radio--$14.05; +0.33; optionable): Satellite radio (these are really cool)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xmsr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. XMSR was making the move Tuesday, rising on stronger volume to a new 52-week high, but it could not hold the move. It is at the tail end of a 19 month base, forming a small cup with handle here at the end on very low volume to shake out the rest of the sellers. It is trying to make the move, now we will see if it can follow through.
Volume: 9.986M Avg Volume: 6.236M
BUY POINT: $14.25 Volume=11M Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.12
POSITION: QSY JC - Oct. $15c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xmsr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$13.81; -0.62; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Double top. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the high (14.68) and then thudded lower on rising though still below average volume. It double topped in June and July and tumbled below the 50 day MVA It tested the 50 day one last time and broke through some near support at 14. Ready for more.
Volume: 2.491M Avg Volume: 3.451M
BUY POINT: New: $13.76 (orig. $13.85) Volume=3.5M Target=$11.85 Stop=$14.78
POSITION: CQV UC - Sept. $15p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
ACV: No date yet. Started up but was not ready.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Testing the 50 day MVA on low volume for another test.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Still riding the 50 day MVA. Waiting for a strong move over 63.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings.
COH: No split announced on 7-29 with earnings. Again holding support over 52.50, just over the 50 day MVA.
CPWM: Forecast to announce a split 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Below the 50 day MVA with a doji. Will see if it can recover.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Thudded to the 50 day MVA but on lower volume.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings. Going back to test the 50 day MVA.
HAR: Forecast 8-11 in conjunction with earnings. Continues its lateral move that is tapping the 18 day MVA on the low. Not ready yet.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Good move Monday but gave some back today on very low volume. Relative strength is solid.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. Heading down for a 50 day MVA test. After 4 runs up the short term MVA this is not totally out of line. After this test it should be ready.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Gave way and tanked below the 50 day MVA.
NDN: Forecast 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting.
PIXR: No date yet. Still looking for the next date.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16, but that did not stop it. Still testing the move, falling to support at 74.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Fell through the 18 day MVA. Exited Monday so will let it test and then try again.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$55.41; -0.07; optionable): Personal products (beauty aids, etc.). No date pinpointed yet, but a good buy point.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice test of the 18 day MVA (54.78) Monday and was rallying higher Tuesday on some good volume. It got caught up in the selling and gave back the move, but ACV is holding up very well in the selling. Just being patient, and if it provides the strong move and holds it toward the close we will work into some more positions.
Volume: 320.3K Avg Volume: 270.818K
BUY POINT: New: $55.77 (orig. $54.80) Volume=400K Target=$65.85 Stop=$54.54
POSITION: ACV IK - Sept. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$53.32; -0.35; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 8-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. COCO has made a very nice, low volume test of the 18 day MVA (52.54), tapping that level on the Tuesday low. It rebounded to hold the 10 day, showing a nice doji. A nice pullback and showing solid relative strength. Looking for a strong move higher.
Volume: 462.005K Avg Volume: 732.636K
BUY POINT: New: $55.65 (orig. $54.15) Volume=1.2M Target=$64.75 Stop=$52
POSITION: UCS KJ - Nov. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$34.01; -0.24; optionable): Discount variety retail. Forecast to announce a split on 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 stock split on 3-12-02 at a stock price of $34.76. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Flat base. NDN is working through a two month flat base after the May breakout from a year long double bottom with handle. It got a bit wild in mid-July, but calmed right back down as it continues to work laterally along the 18 day MVA (34.08). Holding up very well, but we want to see a strong volume breakout hold into the close before we move in.
Volume: 357.5K Avg Volume: 539.681K
BUY POINT: $35.12 Volume=800K Target=$42.25 Stop=$4.08
POSITION: NDN LG - Dec. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndn.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$64.1; -0.12; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1, date not set.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BSX continues to hold up very well in the handle, showing an even tighter range Tuesday on very low, below. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. Very nice.
Volume: 2.239M Avg Volume: 3.741M
BUY POINT: $64.81 Volume=5M Target=$74.55 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: BSX IL - Sept. $60c (74 delta) or BSX KM - Nov. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CECO (Career Education--$82.73; -1.25; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 8-25-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still working in the lateral pattern on very low, below average volume. It is tapping the 10 day MVA (82.22) on the lows and then rebounding. Excellent money flow and relative strength. Again, this stock can fly.
Volume: 458.877K Avg Volume: 850.954K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=1M Target=$95.25 Stop=$79.28
POSITION: CUY JQ - Oct. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
top stock pick
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