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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Monday play results:
ADI: Turned back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
HL: Still working in the very nice handle to the cup w/handle base.
BEAS: Despite the tech selling BEAS is holding up very well. It was ready to give the breakout but the market was not.
New Plays for Wednesday:
Downside:
Play Date: 08/05/2003
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$16.4; -1.11; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Put. CMTL rallied hard this year and then peaked out in July. It formed a head and shoudlers with a weak right shoulder, a sigin of a bit extra weakness. It made the breakodown Tuesday, dropping through the 50 day MVA (17.53) as volume rose. Still below average but rising. Under heavy distribution with tanking money flow. It may try to test higher back toward the 50 day before resuming the fall, but there is a lot of downside momentum here and we are loking at capturing some of it as it continues lower.
Volume: 312.297K Avg Volume: 428.318K
BUY POINT: $16.24 Volume=450K Target=$14.12 Stop=$17.56
POSITION: CQH UW - Sept. $17.50p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cmtl.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/05/2003
ESA (Extended Stay America--$14.68; -0.18; optionable): Lodging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ESA is moving in a 7 month base, forming the handle the past two weeks as it has moved back to test the 18 day MVA (14.62) on much lower, below average volume. Accumulation in the base is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is rising as the stock moves laterally and lower. This is a stock that is quietly building a solid pattern in the consumer/business arena while there is a lot of fretting over whether the economy is going to stall with higher rates, etc.
Volume: 150.1K Avg Volume: 270.318K
BUY POINT: $15.34 Volume=405K Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.44
POSITION: ESA LC - Dec. $15c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/esa.html
Continuing that still look excellent:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
PWN (Cash America--$16.67; -0.23; no options): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwn.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. PWN broke out in March and surged higher in early July. It has spent the past three weeks consolidating that move, holding over the 18 day MVA (16.54) in a tight range. Pretty much aces across the board with solid money flow, accumulation and relative strength. Tuesday it gapped a bit lower but showed a doji with tail over the 18 day. Looking for another break higher to take it out of this range.
Volume: 146.4K Avg Volume: 167.772K
BUY POINT: $17.75 Volume=240K Target=$21.35 Stop=$16.51
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pwn.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: It is time to revamp the subsciber portfolio. The way we do it is have you vote on your favorite stocks for us to cover. Then when we get 8 or so with a majority we compile them.
Compiling all of the responses to release the new portfolio later this week.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: AOS; BEAS; HL; FLSH; VRSN still looks ready to fall.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADI 08/04 Cup 38.19 -1.54 40.43 47.65 3.1M 5M 37.62
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 05/03 BO 38.67 -0.98 30.3 35.45 6.8M 12M 38.25
Current. Moved below the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 32.46 -0.04 33.05 40 115K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Nice doji on the 10 day MVA as AOS tests last week's move higher. Holding up well. Very well. Looking for a move higher to continue the move if the market will let it.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.26 +0.33 6.5 8.25 313K 500K 6.47
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 11.68 -1.2 9.7 11.88 7.2M 2.4M 10.44
Current. Gapped down to the 18 day MVA. Needs to hold here.
AVCI 07/30 Cup 6.5 -0.45 7.35 9 68K 129K 6.84
Buy Not Hit. Tanked below the 18 day. Dropping for now.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 19.08 +0.07 19.58 23.25 126K 376K 18.21
Current. Trying to hold the line, moving laterally over the 10 day MVA.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 13.11 +0.1 13.88 16.65 9.9M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit. Looks very solid.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 13.11 +0.1 13.37 16.22 9.9M 16M 12.69
Current.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.61 +0.15 5.54 6.94 2.8M 1.4M 5.24
Current. Rallied hard on volume but gave most of the move back.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.05 +0.35 2.43 3.12 3.1M 822K 2.18
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher and then fell back to close the session. It held much of the gain. On a bit further test and reversal it is a buy.
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.4 -1.11 16.24 14.12 312K 450K 17.56
New.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.53 0 5.3 6.68 38K 200K 4.93
Current. Holding up well.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 11.1 -0.3 9.73 11.75 1.3M 1.4M 9.94
Current. Coming back some. May need to take the gains as it has stalled at 11.50.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 36.02 +0.29 23.81 28.42 194K 225K 35.94
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA. Tried to rally but turned back. Letting this one have some room.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 36.02 +0.29 22.75 27.35 194K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 102.22 -1.14 69.45 92 7.6M 12M 105.55
Current. Tried to rally but the late selling pushed it back. It has done much of its selling so we will see if it can tackle 106. On a test of that level that fails we will close it.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 102.22 -1.14 62.45 92 7.6M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.16 +0.06 1.88 2.45 272K 210K 1.95
Current. Nice volume move up the 10 day MVA continues.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.68 -0.18 15.34 18.45 150K 405K 14.44
New.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 15.14 -0.18 10.55 12.75 155K 195K 14.42
Current. Nice doji over the 10 day MVA as it continues its solid uptrend.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 15.14 -0.18 9.2 10.96 155K 195K 14.42
Current.
FTUS 08/02 Test BO 6.97 -0.47 8.05 10.45 161K 350K 7.45
Buy Not Hit.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.39 -0.2 12.14 14.45 228K 218K 11.22
Current.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 5.61 +0.04 6.06 7.28 1.3M 1.7M 5.64
Buy Not Hit. Very nice still.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 6.56 -0.04 7.22 8.95 277K 541K 6.68
Current. It rallied toward the close so we let it run another session. Won't let it backslide form here.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 6.56 -0.04 6.7 8.38 277K 541K 6.68
Current.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 36.48 -3.02 42.28 48.85 25M 12M 39.32
Exited.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 36.48 -3.02 29.12 33.55 25M 8.3M 39
Exited. Great earnings but broke the 50 day on volume and could
not recover so took the gain off the table.
IBM 06/14 Put 79.85 -1.28 0 0 7M 0 0
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 24.27 -0.84 25.56 30.65 52M 75M 24
Buy Not Hit.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 12.39 +0.33 13.48 16.25 256K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 9.37 -0.63 9.05 10.95 116K 130K 9.52
Exited. Used a trailing stop to take a modest gain off the table.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 50.58 -1.99 52.25 60 7.1M 14M 50.12
Current. Slid below the 18 day MVA. Needs to hold 50.
KLIC 08/02 Test BO 9.06 -0.31 9.32 11.75 1.2M 1.5M 8.48
Current. Reversed part of the Monday gain but on lower volume.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.05 -0.05 6.58 8.05 245K 400K 5.98
Current. Managed to recover to hold the 18 day MVA. This is where it holds or is sold.
MCTR 07/28 Test BO 2.96 +0.01 2.55 3.35 2.3M 367K 2.28
Buy Not Issued.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11.15 +0.15 10.52 12.75 326K 248K 9.78
Current. Ignoring the market.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 21.66 -0.63 22.25 27.95 179K 488K 21.68
Current. Struggling at the 18 day MVA. It needs to rally or we close it.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 21.66 -0.63 22.8 27.95 179K 488K 21.68
Current.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 14.23 -0.59 15.4 18.35 8.9M 16M 14.32
Current. No major breakdown, but fell to the 18 day MVA on slightly higher volume.
NTN 07/26 FlyPlat 2.45 +0.11 2.44 3.32 88K 200K 2.18
Current. Nice move up off the 10 day MVA.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.2 +0.14 3 3.75 400K 900K 3.18
Current. Still moving up off the 50 day MVA in a rebound move. Letting it rebound as far as it will.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.67 -0.18 2.9 3.75 251K 150K 2.68
Current. Fell below the 18 day MVA. It was a victim of some late selling that pushed it lower.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.67 -0.23 17.75 21.35 146K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit.
RTEC 07/31 Cup hdl 18.24 -2.12 21.06 25.28 1.1M 522K 19.59
Buy Not Hit. Gapped lower. Looked good until today. Dropping.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.3 -0.65 27.55 33 3.5M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.3 -0.65 26.3 30.94 3.5M 6M 26.45
Current.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 32.45 +0.52 17.71 21.25 12M 4M 30.52
Current. Another doji at the 18 day MVA.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 34.11 -0.54 29.9 35.88 3.5M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA still.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 55.37 -1.11 0 0 2.3M 5M 53.75
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 53.82 -0.98 46.85 55.25 224K 603K 53.25
Current. Down to the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 53.82 -0.98 43.75 52 224K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 53.82 -0.98 38.6 44.38 224K 577K 53.25
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.36 -0.11 7.7 9.45 64K 200K 7.21
Current. Testing down to the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 4.1 +0.42 4.12 5.15 545K 920K 3.74
Current. Up off support at 3.50 on strong volume. Good recovery.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 10.77 -0.03 12.22 14.96 44K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 33.37 -0.33 28.8 34.12 914K 2.1M 30
Current. Holding up well on very low volume.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 33.37 -0.33 23.45 28 914K 2M 30
Current.
VRSN 08/02 Dbl Top 12.98 +0.37 12.45 10.65 3.7M 4.4M 13.45
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the high and fell back. Still looking for the breakdown.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 30.15 -0.73 19.76 20 4.7M 8.5M 29.06
Current.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 17.06 +0.04 16.95 20.45 263K 250K 15.86
Current. Still holding its move up the 10 day MVA on some good volume.
WMT 02/05 Put 55.3 -0.53 0 0 7.4M 8.2M 0
WWCA 07/23 BO 14.42 -0.3 14.48 17.45 1.4M 824K 14
Current. Second session of gapping higher and then failing. Being careful here to protect the uptrend.
WWCA 05/22 BO 14.42 -0.3 11.42 13.85 1.4M 824K 14
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 29.82 -0.96 17.32 25 8.4M 20M 32.15
Current. Closed below the 50 day MVA, holding some support at 30. Needs to make the rebound here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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