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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 2
We apologize for the omitting the plays from part 2. The following is a corrected part 2.
THE PLAYS
Tuesday play results:
CMTL: Dropped but then managed to rally back to test. Still below the 50 day and looking for a further fall.
ESA: Still in the handle but moved below the 18 day MVA on some rising volume.
PWN: Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Still looks solid.
New Plays for Thursday:
Downside:
Play Date: 08/06/2003
ITRI (Itron--$19.69; -0.41; optionable): Scientific & Technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Another stock that broke out of a nice cup with handle base and rallied only to roll over with a big gap down in mid-July. Bounced up off the 200 day MVA (19.81) but failed at the 50 day and is right back down. It cracked the 200 day Wednesday, and with the heavy distribution and tanking money flow we are looking for ITRI to follow them below the 200 day MVA.
Volume: 154.156K Avg Volume: 185.954K
BUY POINT: $19.57 Volume=200K Target=$17 Stop=$20.55
POSITION: IUP ID - Sept. $20p (-51 delta) or IUP WD - Nov. $20p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/itri.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/06/2003
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$6.5; +0.55; no options): Medical Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
STATUS: Breakout. PMTI is making its move out of its 3 month cup with ragged handle base showing excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down weeks on rising volume). Outstanding money flow and a relative strength breakout on a second strong volume surge Wednesday. Looking to pick up some positions on a further move and then more on the test of the break higher.
Volume: 574.989K Avg Volume: 114.5K
BUY POINT: $6.59 Volume=200K Target=$7.91 Stop=$5.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pmti.html
Continuing that still look excellent:
Play Date: 08/04/2003
ADI (Analog Devices--$38.25; +0.06; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Cup. ADI continues to hold up well in its 9 week base, selling back Tuesday, but holding the 18 day MVA on the Wednesday low (37.65) and rebounding. Excellent money flow and relative strength. Looks to be biding its time until the current turbulence is over. It needs to show us the strong move, not just sliding past the buy point on lukewarm volume.
Volume: 2.821M Avg Volume: 3.815M
BUY POINT: $40.43 Volume=5M Target=$47.65 Stop=$37.62
POSITION: ADI LH - Dec. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
VRSN (Verisign--$12.51; -0.47; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
STATUS: Put. Tuesday VRSN bounced up from the Monday selling, tapped the 50 day MVA on the high (13.35) and fell back to the close. Wednesday it was selling again though still on below average volume. Need to see the volume spike higher on a move through the buy point.
Volume: 3.371M Avg Volume: 4.457M
BUY POINT: $12.45 Volume=4.4M Target=$10.65 Stop=$13.45
POSITION: QVR UW - Sept. $15p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vrsn.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: It is time to revamp the subsciber portfolio. The way we do it is have you vote on your favorite stocks for us to cover. Then when we get 8 or so with a majority we compile them.
Compiling all of the responses to release the new portfolio later this week.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: MERX; TSCO; NTN
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADI 08/04 Cup 38.25 +0.06 40.43 47.65 2.8M 5M 37.62
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 05/03 BO 38.94 +0.27 30.3 35.45 9.2M 12M 38.25
Current. Trying to move through the short term MVA on rising volume but fell back below them on the close.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 32 -0.46 33.05 40 58K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Down to the 18 day MVA on continued low volume.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7 -0.26 6.5 8.25 292K 500K 6.47
Current. Gapped higher but then fell right back to the 10 day giving back most of the Tuesday move.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 11.27 -0.41 9.7 11.88 4.8M 2.4M 11.38
Exited.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 19.28 +0.2 19.58 23.25 510K 376K 18.21
Current. Gapped higher but gave it back. Excellent volume and it would have been nice if it held the move. Still in good shape.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.89 -0.22 13.88 16.65 4.6M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.89 -0.22 13.37 16.22 4.6M 16M 12.69
Current. Back to the 18 day MVA on very low volume as it continues to work on the handle.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.54 -0.07 5.54 6.94 1.1M 1.4M 5.24
Current. Still holding over the 10 day MVA, trying to gain some momentum.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 2.98 -0.07 2.43 3.12 1.7M 822K 2.18
Buy Not Issued.
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.82 +0.42 16.24 14.12 553K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.4 -0.13 5.3 6.68 27K 200K 4.93
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on very low volume as it works laterally here.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 11.04 -0.06 9.73 11.75 796K 1.4M 9.94
Current. Tested all the way back to the 10 day but rebounded. Giving it some room here but won't let it tank on us.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 36.06 +0.04 23.81 28.42 184K 225K 35.94
Current. Another doji over the 50 day MVA on low volume.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 36.06 +0.04 22.75 27.35 184K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 101.48 -0.74 69.45 92 9.4M 12M 105.55
Current. Another doji below the 50 day.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 101.48 -0.74 62.45 92 9.4M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.25 +0.09 1.88 2.45 743K 210K 1.95
Current. Nice move on volume as it continues up the 10 day MVA.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.38 -0.3 15.34 18.45 216K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 14.53 -0.61 10.55 12.75 316K 195K 14.42
Current. Testing back toward support. Needs to hold and rebound or we shut it down.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 14.53 -0.61 9.2 10.96 316K 195K 14.42
Current.
FTUS 08/02 Test BO 6.72 -0.25 8.05 10.45 151K 350K 7.45
Buy Not Hit.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.05 -0.34 12.14 14.45 138K 218K 11.22
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounded to close. Low volume.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 5.7 +0.09 6.06 7.28 1.1M 1.7M 5.64
Buy Not Hit. Still forming up very well.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 6.36 -0.2 7.22 8.95 1000 541K 6.68
Exited.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 6.36 -0.2 6.7 8.38 1000 541K 6.68
Exited.
IBM 06/14 Put 79.75 +0.06 0 0 7.5M 0 0
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 24.14 -0.13 25.56 30.65 58M 75M 24
Buy Not Hit.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 11.8 -0.59 13.48 16.25 282K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued.
ITRI 08/06 H&S 19.69 -0.41 19.57 17 154K 200K 20.55
New.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 50.29 -0.29 52.25 60 8M 14M 50.12
Current. Holding some support at 50.
KLIC 08/02 Test BO 9.22 +0.16 9.32 11.75 1.2M 1.5M 8.48
Current. Holding well at 9.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.04 -0.01 6.58 8.05 424K 400K 5.98
Exited.
MCTR 07/28 Test BO 2.95 0 2.55 3.35 905K 367K 2.28
Buy Not Issued.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11.1 -0.05 10.52 12.75 253K 248K 9.78
Current. Gapped to the 10 day MVA but rebounded. Good finish.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 21.17 -0.49 22.25 27.95 211K 488K 21.68
Current. Below the 18 day MVA still, forming something of another handle here.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 21.17 -0.49 22.8 27.95 211K 488K 21.68
Current.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 13.77 -0.46 15.4 18.35 11M 16M 14.32
Current. Rebounded off the low. Seeing if it will clear the 18 day at 14.30.
NTN 07/26 FlyPlat 2.35 -0.1 2.44 3.32 177K 200K 2.18
Current. Held the 10 day. Looks nice.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.17 -0.03 3 3.75 145K 900K 3.18
Current. Still making the comeback.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.68 +0.01 2.9 3.75 139K 150K 2.68
Exited.
PMTI 08/06 BO 6.5 +0.55 6.59 7.91 575K 200K 5.96
New.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.49 -0.18 17.75 21.35 128K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.13 -0.17 27.55 33 2.9M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.13 -0.17 26.3 30.94 2.9M 6M 26.45
Current. Continues to hold some support at 26.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 31.98 -0.47 17.71 21.25 10M 4M 30.52
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 32.27 -1.84 29.9 35.88 4.3M 2.5M 36.55
Exited.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 53.69 -1.68 0 0 3M 5M 53.75
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 53.74 -0.08 55.75 62.45 203K 494K 51.85
Buy Not Hit. Tight doji on the 18 day MVA.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 53.74 -0.08 46.85 55.25 203K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 53.74 -0.08 43.75 52 203K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 53.74 -0.08 38.6 44.38 203K 577K 53.25
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7 -0.36 7.7 9.45 172K 200K 7.21
Current. Holding some support at 7. Needs to bounce here.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 4 -0.1 4.12 5.15 716K 920K 3.74
Current.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 10.47 -0.3 12.22 14.96 66K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 33.8 +0.43 28.8 34.12 929K 2.1M 30
Current. Still holding the uptrend.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 33.8 +0.43 23.45 28 929K 2M 30
Current.
VRSN 08/02 Dbl Top 12.51 -0.47 12.45 10.65 3.4M 4.4M 13.45
Current.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 29.91 -0.24 19.76 20 8.6M 8.5M 29.06
Current.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 17.25 +0.19 16.95 20.45 231K 250K 15.86
Current. Still making the move up the 10 day MVA
WMT 02/05 Put 55.74 +0.44 0 0 6.3M 8.2M 0
Moving along the 50 day MVA.
WWCA 07/23 BO 13.8 -0.62 14.48 17.45 829K 824K 14
Current. Fell below the 18 day MVA but was rallying back off the close.
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.8 -0.62 11.42 13.85 829K 824K 14
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 29.46 -0.36 17.32 25 16M 20M 32.15
Current. Sold down but rallied back to show a doji.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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