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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Downside:
Play Date: 08/07/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$36.52; +0.95; optionable): Pharmacy benefits management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. As did many stocks, ADVP peaked in mid-July. It fell back and tried to rally off 38, but failed at the 40 where the short term MVA were (10 and 18 day MVA). It broke below the 50 day MVA (37.64) last Friday and then fell to near 34 on the Wednesday low. Thursday it started back up to test the breakdown, but volume was lower and below average as it did. We are looking for a classic test of the breakdown, rallying back to test 37.50ish on lower volume. Then we look for a turnover at that level on rising volume again.
Volume: 1.448M Avg Volume: 1.621M
BUY POINT: Test 37.50 and then on a move through $36.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$32.22 Stop=$38.45
POSITION: QVD UH - Sept. $40p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/advp.html
Play Date: 08/07/2003
WYE (Wyeth--$44.28; +1.63; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wye.html
STATUS: Double top. WYE double topped in June and July, peaking at 50. It broke down at that point and fell through the 50 day MVA (45.52) to start the month. There is some support at 44, and it broke right through that Tuesday. It is now coming back up to test the breakdown on lower, below average volume. We will let it continue the test up toward the 50 day, and then pick it up on the way back down. Now it may just turn over from here and if it does we will look at some positions from here.
Volume: 4.416M Avg Volume: 5.082M
BUY POINT: Test 45.52 on lower volume, then $44.94 on the way down. From here: $43.94 Volume=6M Target=$40.38 Stop=$45.25
POSITION: WYE UI - Sept. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wye.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/07/2003
LAVA (Magma Design Automation--$20.85; +1.21; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lava.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. LAVA is breaking out of a short 6 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). Solid accumulation and relative strength is breaking out as well, a good sign of strength on the breakout.
Volume: 3.025M Avg Volume: 831.272K
BUY POINT: $20.96 Volume=1.2M Target=$25.15 Stop=$19.49
POSITION: UPB JD - Oct. $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lava.html
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/07/2003
RNT (Aaron Rents--$28.62; +0.45; no options): Rental & leasing. Splits 3:2 on 8-18
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnt.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. RNT has formed a nice little 5 week ascending triangle right at the end of a long 15 month cup base. The pattern has formed right at the point where the base started, i.e., where it started to fall after a strong run to that point in early 2002. Now an ascending triangle is not the best handle to a base as it does not shake out all of the sellers because the stock keeps rising, making higher lows. For a pre-split, however, that is not all that bad because we are looking for those explosive runs that occur after a split is announced and before the actual split occurs. Accumulation in the small pattern is a solid 2 to 0, and price/volume action and relative strength look solid. We will look to jump on it quick if we get the breakout.
Volume: 82.2K Avg Volume: 97.5K
BUY POINT: $29.04 Volume=140K Target=$33.45 Stop=$27.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rnt.html
New Pre-Split Play
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/28/2003
CHRD (Chordiant Software--$3.08; +0.1; no options): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CHRD gapped up sharply Tuesday, and is coming back to test, that move, holding some old support at 3. This just looks solid across the board with excellent accumulation, money flow and relative strength breaking out even as the stock tests.
Volume: 596.835K Avg Volume: 728.409K
BUY POINT: 3.18 (orig. $2.43) Volume=822K Target=$3.98 Stop=$2.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chrd.html
Play Date: 07/08/2003
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$24.89; +0.56; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Flat. DADE continues to work laterally in its flat base, holding the 18 day MVA (24.37) on very low, below average volume. Very solid, and we love the first base on new issues (issued in February). Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation coupled with strong money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 99.888K Avg Volume: 326.363K
BUY POINT: New: 25.32 (orig. $24.92) Volume=435K Target=$29.94 Stop=$23.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
LSI (LSI Logic--$9.05; -0.19; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lsi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. LSI broke out from a 8 month base in July, but as the market started to consolidate, LSI started to do so as well, but it has held up remarkably. It is holding easily over the 18 day MVA (8.91) on lower, below average volume. This is a very nice pullback, and while it probably won't make headlines on its own, if there is some more strength in the semiconductors LSI is well-poised to make the next leg higher.
Volume: 3.328M Avg Volume: 5.038M
BUY POINT: New: 9.62 (orig. $9.50) Volume=7.2M Target=$11.48 Stop=$8.84
POSITION: LSI JU - Oct. $7.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lsi.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$13.75; -0.11; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Showing a nice hammer doji at the 10 day MVA (13.79) on lower and lower below average volume after the nice break higher. This is actually a very nice handle forming to the nice little 9 week base showing solid accumulation and excellent money flow. Just letting the pattern work through and give us a strong breakout. Looks very nice as telecoms are still holding up and are going to be the leaders again on the way back up.
Volume: 196.315K Avg Volume: 693.318K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tklc.html
Play Date: 07/30/2003
TSAI (Transaction Sys Architects--$12.06; +0.22; optionable): Scientific & technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Very nice test underway with TSAI tapping the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounding for a gain Thursday. Volume was not there, but the stock is still in a pullback mode. Excellent across the board with strong accumulation, money flow and relative strength. Looking for volume to surge higher as TSAI starts the next move.
Volume: 108.026K Avg Volume: 194.272K
BUY POINT: New: $12.35 (orig. $11.75) Volume=240K Target=$13.88 Stop=$10.96
POSITION: TQR IB - Sept. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsai.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/17/2003
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$37.53; +0.1; optionable): Medical instruments & supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Put. BDX has edged back up to the 50 day MVA (37.76), moving Thursday on lower, below average volume. This is where it has failed in the downtrend that started in early July, so we are looking for it to fall from here through the buy point on rising volume.
Volume: 996.8K Avg Volume: 1.105M
BUY POINT: $36.92 Volume=900K Target=$34.25 Stop=$38.25
POSITION: BDX UH - Sept. $40p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
BGEN (Biogen--$36.85; +0.67; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Put. BGEN looks ready to bounce up to test the 10 day MVA (37.77) after falling Tuesday and Wednesday on low, below average volume. After a test up to that level we will look to enter on the way back down.
Volume: 2.112M Avg Volume: 4.438M
BUY POINT: Test 37.75, then 37.25 on the way back down. From here: $36.42 Volume=4M Target=$33.25 Stop=$38.15
POSITION: BGQ UH - Sept. $40p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bgen.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$16.43; -0.39; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CMTL broke the 50 day MVA (17.46) Tuesday, tanked Wednesday but rebounded sharply. Thursday it made a weak, low volume test of the 50 day MVA and fell back to 16. It looks ready to make the fall now after that test.
Volume: 168.632K Avg Volume: 436.909K
BUY POINT: $16.24 Volume=450K Target=$14.12 Stop=$17.56
POSITION: CQH UW - Sept. $17.50p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 08/06/2003
GNTA (Genta, Inc.--$11.73; +0.06; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnta.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. GNTA is trying to hang on just below the neckline to the 2 month base at 23. It looks as if it might make one more test of the 50 day MVA (12.32) before rolling back down. Under distribution and the money flow is falling ahead of the stock.
Volume: 581.3K Avg Volume: 1.222M
BUY POINT: Test toward 12.30, then $11.94 on the way back down. Volume=1.1M Target=$9.76 Stop=$12.45
POSITION: GJU UV - Sept. $12.50c (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gnta.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
COH announced a stock split after the close!
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
ACV: Still researching a split date.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Still testing the 50 day MVA, showing a doji at that level.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Edging below the 50 day MVA as it forms a more serious consolidation after the long run.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings.
COH: Held the 50 day MVA after undercutting and announced a split after hours!
CPWM: Forecast to announce a split 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Not doing it for now.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Still trying to work off the 50 day MVA.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings. Nice jump off the 50 day Wednesday. Could be getting ready but we want to see more..
HAR: Forecast 8-11 in conjunction with earnings. Dropped to the 50 day MVA, but has held for now. Will see if it can form up again.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Nice fade back toward the 10 day MVA on low volume.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. As with many stocks, LM is testing the 50 day MVA.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Has rolled over. Dropping for now.
NDN: Forecast 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Still testing the breakout, testing the 50 day MVA.
PIXR: Broke below the 18 day MVA so we closed positions with a trailing stop. Will look for the next entry point.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16, but that did not stop it.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Holding some support at 55 on low volume.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/07/2003
DHR (Danaher--$72.31; +0.46; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-16-98 at a stock price of $75.30. The annual shareholder meeting ws on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Double bottom. DHR is pulling back to test the 18 day MVA (70.83) in its 13 week base that has formed at the end of a 17 month base. Accumulation in the double bottom is 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow, and we are looking for a break to a new high to move into positions.
Volume: 780.5K Avg Volume: 1.1M
BUY POINT: $73.52 Volume=1.6M Target=$84.55 Stop=$70.72
POSITION: DHR LO - Dec. $75c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dhr.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$55.61; -0.21; optionable): Personal products (beauty aids, etc.). No date pinpointed yet, but a good buy point.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ACV has tried to make the move off of support at 55 this week, and it was really flying Wednesday but then gave the move back. Thursday it basically held flat on low volume. It is holding up very well vis- -vis the rest of the market, and we are going to stay with it and on the next strong volume move that is holding up in the session we will move in.
Volume: 233.2K Avg Volume: 274.59K
BUY POINT: New: $56.25 (orig. $54.80) Volume=400K Target=$65.85 Stop=$54.54
POSITION: ACV IK - Sept. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$53.79; +0.59; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 8-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. COCO is still in the low volume test of the break higher, holding over the flying plateau that formed in July. It is holding the 10 day MVA (53.37), and relative strength is holding up as well. Can fly but want to see the volume surge when it makes its move.
Volume: 364.097K Avg Volume: 722.454K
BUY POINT: New: $55.65 (orig. $54.15) Volume=1.2M Target=$64.75 Stop=$52
POSITION: UCS KJ - Nov. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$63.03; -0.17; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1, date not set.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice doji right on top of the 10 day MVA (62.76) as BSX continues that nice, below average volume handle. It is holding up very well as the rest of the market languishes, a sign of its strength. Waiting for that strong break higher.
Volume: 2.342M Avg Volume: 3.699M
BUY POINT: $64.81 Volume=5M Target=$74.55 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: BSX IL - Sept. $60c (74 delta) or BSX KM - Nov. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CECO (Career Education--$83.5; +1.45; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 8-25-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Reached down to test the 18 day MVA on the Thursday low (80.79) and rallied back for a nice gain. Just no volume as it made the move. That is not always a prerequisite on pre-splits, but with the market as it is we want to see stronger trade. Solid across the board.
Volume: 593.282K Avg Volume: 844.045K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=1M Target=$95.25 Stop=$79.28
POSITION: CUY JQ - Oct. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$25.7; -0.26; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 4:3 on 8-15-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Excellent test of the breakout, holding over the 18 day MVA (25.21) and showing a nice, tight doji on lower, below average volume. MMSI broke out of a 10 month cup with handle base two weeks back and then added some fuel to the fire with a split announcement. The stock rallied from 23 to 28 and is now in a modest pullback to test the move. Huge money flow and a relative strength breakout. A very nice test and now we look for the move back up to step in.
Volume: 74.6K Avg Volume: 123.181K
BUY POINT: $26.72 Volume=183K Target=$32 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: RMQ JE - Oct. $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mmsi.html
Play Date: 07/29/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$54.21; +0.47; optionable): Ranch supplies. Splits 2:1, 8-22-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TSCO continued a very nice, low volume test of the breakout, holding the 18 day MVA (53.61) as it tests back. It was up slightly Thursday but volume was lower. One of our favorite stocks, but we are not going to let that cloud our vision. We want to see a strong move higher on volume.
Volume: 173.132K Avg Volume: 320.09K
BUY POINT: $55.75 Volume=494K Target=$62.45 Stop=$51.85
POSITION: QTF JK - Oct. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
top stock pick
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