|
|
us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Wednesday night play results:
ITRI: Started the fall on high volume. Managed to recoup som of the losses but a good start to the play.
PMTI: Surging higher with a gap on the open. We missed the test of the prior close at 6.50, but it was a good buy point.
ADI: Slid below the 18 day MVA on some risign volume. Still in the pattern but not the action we wanted.
VRSN: Tapped the 10 day MVA on the high and then fell back.
New Plays for Thursday:
Downside:
Play Date: 08/07/2003
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$8.77; +0.58; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
STATUS: Put. In serious trouble, BMRN peaked in June near 13 and then plunged to the 200 day MVA (9.73). It has bounced up along that level for the past 6 weeks until this week when it rolled over and plunged through that support. A break of the 200 day MVA tends to get worse; this is the last point big money moves in to support their stocks. If they abandon it, bad news. Thursday BMRN started back up on lower, below average volume. We are looking for it to make another move up to some resistance at 9 to the 10 day MVA at 9.40 and then another rollover after the test.
Volume: 803.301K Avg Volume: 893.5K
BUY POINT: Test 9 to 9.40, then $8.98 on the way back down. Volume=1.3M Target=$6.95 Stop=$9.75
POSITION: NUR VB - Oct. $10p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bmrn.html
Play Date: 08/07/2003
GENZ (Genzyme--$44.24; +0.75; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Put. GENZ peaked in late July and has been falling this week on on strong volume. It fell below the 50 day MVA (45.75) Tuesday and Wednesday. GENZ bounced some Thursday on lower though still slightly above average volume. We expect it to move back up to test the 50 day MVA before it rolls back over. We will be happy to move into positions on a fall from here, but we will also watch for that test and rollover.
Volume: 3.655M Avg Volume: 3.566M
BUY POINT: From here: $44.05. Test of 45.75: $45.38 on the way back down.Volume=4M Target=$40 Stop=$46
POSITION: GZQ UI - Sept. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/genz.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/07/2003
TIWI (Telesystem Intl. Wireless--$3.8; 0; no options): Foreign wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tiwi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Tightening up very nicely in a 7 week pattern, moving the past 5 weeks on very low, below average volume. This pattern follows the breakout from a 6 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in that base was solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. This pattern also follows a 1 for 5 stock split in June. We will get to see if the reverse split plays any roll in the stock's further move. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 133.9K Avg Volume: 459.227K
BUY POINT: $4.06 Volume=689K Target=$5.65 Stop=$3.75
POSITION: - Stocks (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tiwi.html
Continuing that still look excellent:
Play Date: 07/24/2003
AOS (A.O. Smith--$32.1; +0.1; no options): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aos.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AOS broke from a short cup with handle in late July, that base forming right after a 13 month cup base. Excellent money flow and accumulation , and we really like that tight doji right on the 18 day MVA (31.98).
Volume: 109.6K Avg Volume: 104.318K
BUY POINT: $33.05 Volume=175K Target=$40 Stop=$30.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aos.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: It is time to revamp the subsciber portfolio. The way we do it is have you vote on your favorite stocks for us to cover. Then when we get 8 or so with a majority we compile them.
Compiling all of the responses to release the new portfolio later this week.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: BEV; ESA; GMR; HL
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADI 08/04 Cup 37.27 -0.98 40.43 47.65 3.4M 5M 37.62
Buy Not Hit.
AMZN 05/03 BO 39.01 +0.07 30.3 35.45 6.4M 12M 38.25
Current. Still holding just below the 18 day MVA.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 32.1 +0.1 33.05 40 110K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.24 +0.24 6.5 8.25 452K 500K 6.47
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 19.33 +0.05 19.58 23.25 271K 376K 18.21
Current. Trying to get off the dime on as it works over the 10 day MVA.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.76 -0.13 13.88 16.65 3.8M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle to the nice base.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.76 -0.13 13.37 16.22 3.8M 16M 12.69
Current.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.49 -0.05 5.54 6.94 916K 1.4M 5.24
Current. Nice test of the 10 day MVA.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.77 +0.58 8.98 6.95 803K 1.3M 9.75
New.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.08 +0.1 2.43 3.12 597K 822K 2.18
Buy Not Issued. Making a nice test of what is starting to be some support
at 3.
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.43 -0.39 16.24 14.12 169K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.3 -0.09 5.3 6.68 59K 200K 4.93
Current. Nice below average volume test of the 18 day MVA.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 10.9 -0.14 9.73 11.75 793K 1.4M 9.94
Current. Still testing back on low volume holding most of the gains.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 36.77 +0.71 23.81 28.42 142K 225K 35.94
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA but still not garnering any trade.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 36.77 +0.71 22.75 27.35 142K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 101.46 -0.02 69.45 92 6.5M 12M 105.55
Current. Holding at some support at 100.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 101.46 -0.02 62.45 92 6.5M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.13 -0.12 1.88 2.45 626K 210K 1.95
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounded to recoup most of the losses.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.82 +0.44 15.34 18.45 588K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 14.96 +0.43 10.55 12.75 201K 195K 14.42
Current. Starting the bounce up off the 18 day MVA.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 14.96 +0.43 9.2 10.96 201K 195K 14.42
Current.
FTUS 08/02 Test BO 5.7 -1.02 8.05 10.45 596K 350K 7.45
Buy Not Hit.
GENZ 08/07 Put 44.24 +0.75 44.05 40 3.7M 4M 46
New.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.2 +0.15 12.14 14.45 150K 218K 11.22
Current. Nice test and move up off the 10 day MVA.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 5.69 -0.01 6.06 7.28 1.4M 1.7M 5.64
Buy Not Hit. Still a nice base and handle.
IBM 06/14 Put 80.69 +0.94 0 0 5.3M 0 0
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 23.99 -0.15 25.56 30.65 49M 75M 24
Buy Not Hit.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 11.55 -0.25 13.48 16.25 189K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued.
ITRI 08/06 H&S 18.97 -0.72 19.57 17 616K 200K 20.55
Buy Not Hit. Sold on high volume but managed to rebound and recoup
much of the loss. Will let it test toward the 200
day again given the bounce back. Good action and worth
moving in today.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 49.76 -0.53 52.25 60 7.2M 14M 50.12
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA on the low and started to rebound so we left it alone. Needs to get some volume.
KLIC 08/02 Test BO 8.64 -0.58 9.32 11.75 1.3M 1.5M 8.48
Current. Turned down harder to the 18 day MVA on rising volume. It has used this level to bounce and it needs to do it now.
MCTR 07/28 Test BO 2.96 0 2.55 3.35 723K 367K 2.28
Buy Not Issued. Has done all it will do given the takeover so time to exit.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11 -0.1 10.52 12.75 119K 248K 9.78
Current. Still looking solid.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 20.98 -0.19 22.25 27.95 259K 488K 21.68
Current. Touched near the 50 day MVA and started up on volume, so we let it ride another day.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 20.98 -0.19 22.8 27.95 259K 488K 21.68
Current.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 13.6 -0.17 15.4 18.35 7.3M 16M 14.32
Current. Debated shutting it down. Giving it another chance to bounce off the 50 day MVA.
NTN 07/26 FlyPlat 2.18 -0.17 2.44 3.32 171K 200K 2.18
Exited.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.35 +0.18 3 3.75 255K 900K 3.18
Current. What a nice recovery.
PMTI 08/06 BO 6.9 +0.4 6.59 7.91 664K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Continued the move on strong volume, gapping higher.
We missed the test intraday so decided to wati for
another test lower to enter rather than chase it at
its highs. Good action.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.4 -0.09 17.75 21.35 105K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.12 -0.01 27.55 33 2.4M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.12 -0.01 26.3 30.94 2.4M 6M 26.45
Current. Nice hammer doji at support at 26.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 28.68 -3.3 17.71 21.25 12M 4M 30.52
Exited. Broke below the 18 day MVA on strong volume so exited.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 54.84 +1.15 0 0 2.8M 5M 53.75
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.8 0 4.06 5.65 134K 689K 3.75
New.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 54.21 +0.47 55.75 62.45 173K 494K 51.85
Buy Not Hit. Nice hold of the 18 day MVA. Just waiting for the bounce.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 54.21 +0.47 46.85 55.25 173K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 54.21 +0.47 43.75 52 173K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 54.21 +0.47 38.6 44.38 173K 577K 53.25
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.01 +0.01 7.7 9.45 145K 200K 7.21
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the low and regained all the lost ground.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 3.88 -0.12 4.12 5.15 330K 920K 3.74
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA with a nice doji.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 9.92 -0.55 12.22 14.96 137K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 31.45 -2.35 28.8 34.12 2.5M 2.1M 30
Current. Bad day, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounding. Needs to recover quick or we close it.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 31.45 -2.35 23.45 28 2.5M 2M 30
Current.
VRSN 08/02 Dbl Top 12.41 -0.1 12.45 10.65 2.8M 4.4M 13.45
Current. Tapping at the 10 day MVA and falling back down. Ready to resume the downtrend.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 29.3 -0.61 19.76 20 7.7M 8.5M 29.06
Current.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.68 -0.57 16.95 20.45 135K 250K 15.86
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
WMT 02/05 Put 57 +1.26 0 0 13M 8.2M 0
Reported solid July sales and raised guidance. Investors raised its stock price, but it could not hold the break over the July high. We will see what it has here.
WWCA 07/23 BO 13.71 -0.09 14.48 17.45 592K 824K 14
Exited.
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.71 -0.09 11.42 13.85 592K 824K 14
Exited. Used a trailing stop to take the money off the table.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 28.87 -0.59 17.32 25 11M 20M 32.15
Exited. Unable to make any headway back toward the 50 day so
took the rest off the table.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock watch
|
