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yahoo stock, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
THE PLAYS:
For a review of frequently asked questions, please use the link below:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm
THE PLAYS:
All prices reflect prices at the close on Wednesday.
BEST PLAYS:
Best Plays:
1) MMM: Doji on a pullback, and at support.
2) OCLR: Still waiting for volume as it consolidates.
3) COLM: In a position to bounce.
4) HOTT: Up after hours on earnings.
5) DGX: Looks great here.
6) SNPS: Getting ready to test and move back up.
7) QQQ, OEX: At support on lower volume.
READY TO BREAK TO A NEW HIGH (or just did):
OO (Oakley--$25.33; -1.14; optionable (OO): Sporting Goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oo.html
STATUS: Popped up after the Monday pullback to a new closing high (26.47), but the stock retraced the move today. Volume was lower (441,600; avg. 329,500), but still above average. Look for a pullback to the 10 day MVA (24.63), or 24 at the lowest; that is the resistance the stock broke last week after it successfully tested the breakout. It is also just above the 18 day MVA. Target on a move back up: $31 for the first level.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from 24-25 on rising volume. Stop: 22.32.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $22.50 calls to buy (OO HX).
TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT: Some of these stocks are moving back on low volume to test the breakout. We often take profits on option plays when they start to pullback on the breakout move and then get back in when the stock bounces up off of the breakout point. This second move is where some of the biggest gains are made.
New Play (from the weekend):
MMM (Minnesota Mining--$120.64; -0.36; optionable (MMM): Conglomerates
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
STATUS: MMM dropped back below the buy point of 122.05, and below the 10 day MVA (120.88), but the stock is showing a tight doji as volume dropped back to 1.4 million (avg. 2.4 million). The action suggests a move back up; the stock's low of 120.11 tested support from some earlier prices this month, and the April high at 119.75. The 18 day MVA is just below at 119.37. so support looks firm in that range. Looking for a strong move back up in a rally. Target: $140-146, over the high at 127.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 122 on strong volume in a rally. Stop: 113.46 (below the 50 day MVA at 114.97).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $115 calls to buy (MMM GC; delta is 0.698).
Continued Plays:
LTR (Loews--$69.32; -1.03; optionable (LTR): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltr.html
STATUS: Dropped over the last three days to close Wednesday above the 18 day MVA (68.97) on rising volume (643,000; avg. 650,181). Looking for support hold here, but it may be ready for further correction, indicated by the stronger volume. Still below average, but watch for the break of support. Otherwise, we want to see a strong bounce back. The stock needs to take out the high at 72.50. Still huge money flow and good buying. Target on that move: $77-78.
BUY POINT: Breakout: Over 72.50, on volume of 868,000 or better. Stop: 67.43 (18 day MVA is at 68.97).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $65 calls to buy (LTR IM).
DVA (Davita--$18.60; +0.45; optionable (DVA): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Unable to recover as yet after selling off Monday and dropping out of its run up after testing the breakout. Tested the 50 day MVA (17.60) Tuesday for a move back over the 18 day MVA (18.47) today, but we won't take positions until we see a strong breakout over the high of 20.30. Volume was lower at 479,000 (avg. 527,363). Initial target: $24.
BUY POINT: Over 20.30 on volume of 650,000 or better. Stop: 18.49 (at or near the 18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $15 or $17.50 calls to buy (DVA GC or GW).
OCLR (Ocular Sciences--$21.93; -0.35; optionable (QLO): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oclr.html
STATUS: Still consolidating in its test of the breakout as volume drops off (53,400; avg. 124,227) and the low tested support at the 10 day MVA (21.30). The stock can retest that support, or hang here at the 22 level, waiting for volume to push it back up. That's what we're waiting for tests of breakouts often result in continued strong gains. New target over 23.87: $26-28. Still showing great money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: New high: Over 24 on average or better volume. Stop: 22.32 (or the 10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $17.50 or $20 calls to buy (QLO GW or GD).
COLM (Columbia Sportswr--$69.82; -3.18; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Dropped back to support (10 day MVA, 69.60) on low volume of 147,100 (avg. 199,454). The stock on Monday tried to hold a high at 75.15, but lost momentum and dropped back, not helped by lower volume. However, the stock has a good chance of holding support because of it, so we are looking for a move back up when the market rallies. The stock will need to break over the high on strong volume. Huge money flow and great buying. Target: $78-82.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move up on strong volume in a rally. Watch 73.50 for resistance. Stop: 64.93.
POSITION: Stock.
HOTT (Hot Topic--$34.26; -3.03; ; optionable (UHO): Textiles: Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: The stock hit a Tuesday high at 38.20 and today completely retraced the promising move of the last 2 days. Volume was still high at 1.2 million (avg. 667,000). The company after hours reported earnings that beat by a penny, and the stock was trading up after hours. At support at the 10 day MVA at the close of regular trading, the stock looked ready to head lower for the 18 day MVA (33.32). Look for a bounce on stronger volume. Target: $40.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from the 18 day MVA on stronger volume. Stop: 30.99 (or the 50 day MVA at 30.53). On a gap higher in the morning, look for a test of the opening price, or 34.26, then a move back up. New high: Over 38.20 on strong volume. Stop: 35.53.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $30 calls to buy (UHO HF).
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
New Plays (from the weekend): Watchlist: FMX because of its good move.
TWAV (Therma-Wave--$16.96; -1.69; optionable (TQB): Scientific & Tech Instr
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twav.html
STATUS: Dropped out of the ascending wedge and its attempt at a breakout, closing below the 18 day MVA (17.28). The low was 16.50, so the stock pulled back up, but we want a move back over 19 for looking at positions. Volume was higher (269,800; avg. 391,545) but still below average, so the stock may pull it off..
BUY POINT: Over 19.10 on volume of 365,000 or better.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $17.50 calls to buy (TQB GW).
PRGN (Peregrine Sys--$30.15; -1.19; optionable (GQP): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prgn.html
STATUS: Added to the ascending wedge breakout on stronger volume Tuesday, but the stock began a pullback today, volume dropping back to 4.7 million (avg. 3 million). The stock hit the down trendline (31.50) Tuesday on the breakout high of 31.45 and turned back down, but it did take out the first down trendline (30) on the breakout. Look for a test of the buy point of 28.85, if the first trendline (where the stock closed) does not hold. Initial target after the test (breakout high is 31.45): $35-36.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from 28.85 (or higher) on rising volume. Stop: 26.83 (below the 18 day MVA at 27.12).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (GQP GP).
TXN (Texas Instr--$39.58; -1.73; optionable (TXN): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Retraced the wedge breakout and closed on the 10 day MVA today as volume dropped back appropriately (6 million; avg. 11.5 million). The buy point was 41.13, and we don't like the move below that, but will look for the stock to hold here. If the market pulls back further, TXN can test the 18 day MVA (38.56) before it moves back up. Target on the breakout is $45-47.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a bounce back over 41.13 on volume of 8 million or better. Stop: 39.48 (or at or near the 10 day MVA at 39.44).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (TXN GG).
Continued Plays:
BVF (Biovail--$38.88; -0.67; optionable (BVF): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvf.html
STATUS: Dropped back to test the 50 day MVA today on the low of 37.80 after failing to break out of its ascending wedge. The stock showed a tight doji on the close below the 10 day MVA (38.96), near the top of its trading range. Volume was stronger at average levels (799,000; avg. 913,000); the stock may move back up from here, but it will have to break over 41 (breakout high is 40.90). Previous target: $50.
BUY POINT: Over 41 on volume of 1.2 million or better. Stop: 38.13 (below 18 day MVA at 38.55).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (BVF GG).
BASING/TRADING RANGES: Lots of stocks pulling back to support. Make sure of the breakout (watch volumes) and then set stops just below the pivot point. Follow gains up with trailing stops.
New Plays (from the weekend):
LTBG (Lightbridge--$15.34; -0.51; optionable (LKQ): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltbg.html
STATUS: The stock came close to hitting our target of $17 on the breakout high (16.25), then pulled back and tested 15 on the low, before bouncing back up slightly to close. Volume was sharply down on the pullback (199,400; avg. 281,500), and we just might see a hold at this support, which is reinforced by prices from last fall and January and February. The 10 day MVA is at 13.95. Initial target over the high: $18-19.
BUY POINT: Over 16.25 after a pullback to test the 14-15 range. Stop: 14.18 (or at or near the 10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $12.50 calls to buy (LKQ GV).
MIL (Millipore--$58.55; -1.21; optionable (MIL): Scientific & Tech Instr
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mil.html
STATUS: Held just above Friday's breakout Monday and Tuesday, showing 2 tight lateral dojis, but fell out of that today on a drop to test the 10 day MVA (57.72) on the low of 58.01. The stock bounced back up as volume dropped lower to 327,800 (avg. 499,272). That's the right price/volume action; and before the market heads back up the stock can retest the support. Looking for a strong move over Monday's high (60.50) for a breakout from the cup with handle. Target: $70.
BUY POINT: 60.63, on volume of 750,000 or better. Stop: 56.39 (below the 18 day MVA at 56.79).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (MIL GK).
XOM (Exxon Mobil--$87.27; -1.54; optionable (XOM): Energy
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xom.html
STATUS: Fell out of the wedge-type pattern it formed in the middle right side of its base. Volume was higher as the stock sold back (on the news of a class action suit against the company), almost to average at 6.18 million. No new positions.
Continued Plays:
Back on:
SNPS (Synopsys--$60.00; -2.07; optionable (YPQ): Computer Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
STATUS: Pulling back from the new closing high of 62.07 it reached as the stock climbed up the right side and broke out of its short cup with handle base yesterday. The low tested the 10 day MVA at 59.18 as volume dropped back to 1.2 million (avg. 1.6 million). The company after hours reported strong earnings and an unaltered forecast, which sent the stock up slightly in after hours trading. Look for a bounce from the 10 day MVA unless the stock holds at 60, where it has potential support. Target: $68-71.
BUY POINT: Over 62.34 on average or better volume. Stop: 57.98.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (YPQ IK).
Continued Plays:
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$122.30; -0.59; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Closed just above support (10 day MVA) and showing a tight doji. Volume was lower, too, at 198,900 (avg. 353,000), so this pullback has all the classic signs that point to a move back up. DGX tried to make a strong break out of its cup with handle last week, but entered a pullback before it could get going. We will see what it can pull
together from here. Target: $144-150.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on strong volume in a rally. Stop: 113.74.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $120 calls to buy (DGX HD; delta 0.603).
GLGC (Gene Logic--$23.42; -1.23; optionable (CYV): Diversified services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glgc.html
STATUS: After its strong run to Monday's high of 26, the stock has pulled back and on the low today tested support (10 day MVA, 23). Volume was higher on the move, and still above average, at 403,200. We'll look for another test of the moving average before the stock can head back up. It has tested that level for 2 days now, our targeted support.
GLGC in in a 7-month ranging pattern, and if it does not head south again, can make another go at breaking out.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from the 10 day (23 range). Stop: 21.39 (below the 18 day MVA at 21.89).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $17.50 or $20 calls to buy (CYV HW or HD)
ZIGO (Zygo--$33.91; -1.94; optionable (UZY): Scientific & Tech Instr
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zigo.html
STATUS: Two tries couldn't get it out of the cup with handle, but the stock continues to shake out holders as volume dropped again (184,800; avg. 392,000). The stock closed just below its 18 day MVA (34.13), however, so the stock may test once again the 50 day MVA (30.91). High in the former handle is 41, and the 200 day MVA is at 43.40. Target on a breakout: $47-49.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on average or better volume. Stop: 31.54 )r the 50 day at the 31 range). Breakout: 41.13, on volume of 588,000. Stop: 38.25.
POSITION: Both positions: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (UZY GF; low open interest).
UNFI (United Natural Foods--$17.50; -0.10; no options): Food Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unfi.html
STATUS: Showing its third doji since Monday after moving up from the handle's base, the stock unable to take out the pivot point of 18.25. Volume rose the last two days, reaching 228,000 today (avg. 145,000). The lows continue to test support of the rising 10 day MVA (17.15) as price squeezes down. If it doesn't pop out from here, it will likely make the drop to the moving average or lower (18 day MVA is at 16.65). Buying and money flow continue to look good. Target: $21-22.
BUY POINT: 18.25, on volume of 218,000 or better. Stop: 16.71 (just under the 10 day at 17.15).
POSITION: Stock.
HD (Home Depot--$52.62; -0.37; optionable (HD): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hd.html
STATUS: Has had a good run, and the last 2 days pulled back from 53.73 on decreasing volume (today down to 4.8 million; avg. 7.2 million). The low tested support at the 10 day MVA (51.56) as the stock showed another doji. We are looking for a continued pullback, perhaps to 52 if not the 10 day, as the stock continues to regroup and test the recent breakout. HD is in a 14-month base, this recent breakout from a smaller, 4-month cup with handle. Target after the test: $59-62.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from the 51-52 range. Stop: 47.30 (50 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $45 or $50 calls to buy (HD HI or HJ).
Trading plays:
Continued Plays:
STT (State Street--$112.50; -2.18; optionable (STT): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Hit a high of 115.73 yesterday, and pulled back to sit on the 200 day MVA. Volume was higher and just under average at 985,000 as the low tested 111.40. The stock can hold here if the stronger volume doesn't take it down to the 10 day MVA (110.38). If it doesn't, look for a bounce back up or a hold until the market rallies.
Target: $125-131.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on above average and rising volume. Stop: 104.63 (50 day MVA is a 103.80).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $110 calls to buy (STT HB; delta is 0.618).
QCOM (Qualcomm--$68.11; -1.80; optionable (AAO): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Sold back below the 200 day MVA (69.44) on stronger volume of 12.4 million (avg. 18.2 million). Look for a test of the 10 day MVA (65.35), or the April high of 66.50. Don't like the move back below the support/resistance (200 day). We are looking at a new target of $76-80 after the stock broke over that level Monday on stronger volume, but the market inhibited the move up. Buying and money flow still look good.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from 65-66 on rising volume. Stop: 60.45 (below the 50 day MVA at 61.11).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (AAO GL).
INDEX PLAYS: Look ready for a rally.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$48.65; -2.25; optionable (QQQ):
STATUS: Pulling back to support (10 day MVA, 48.16) on lower volume (65.5 million; avg. 75 million). The index is showing the typical pattern of most tech stocks on the report, pulling back for the second day from Monday's strong move (in this case, off Tuesday's high of 51.96). We will look for a bounce back from the 10 day MVA in a rally, or from the 18 day MVA (47.16) if the 10 day doesn't hold before a rally.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from 47-48 on stronger volume in a rally, for a target of 58. Stop: 43.71.
POSITION: Stock and/or July or September $45 calls to buy (QQQ GS or IS). Please check with your broker for deltas, as they are not listed at the time of this writing.
OEX (Standard & Poors 100--$665.19; -10.87; optionable (OEY):
STATUS: Dropped back on lower volume (1.14 million; avg. 1.2 million). The index closed right above support (10 day MVA, 663.72). We'd like to see it hold there; if not, support looks good at 658-659 (from early May). Initial target: 200 day MVA at 701.55.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on rising volume. Stop: 618.63.
POSITION: June $660 (OEY GL) calls to buy. Please check with your broker in the morning for deltas.
Good Investing!
Your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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