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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: HL; BDY
Friday play results:
BMRN: Turned lower with no real bounce as it cointinues its move lower.
GENZ: Not much volume, but starte dto sell down again in its 50 day MVA breakdown.
TIWI: Tried to move upon some better volume but ended the session flat.
AOS: Still a nice hold at the 18 day MVA on the breakout test.
New Plays for Monday:
Downside:
Play Date: 08/09/2003
WTW (Weight Watchers--$42.29; +0.39; optionable): Weight loss products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wtw.html
STATUS: Put. WTW was already weak, making lower highs and below the 200 day MVA (44.42) even before earnings were released where WTW trimmed its 2003 forecast. That sent an already weak, 4 month descending triangle gapping lowerto 40. It rebounded intraday on 8-6, but stalled out the next two sessions. WTW has been under distribution all during this pattern. It is still above the bottom of the pattern at 41, but after another test toward the 10 day MVA (43.19) on continued low volume will most likely stall and send it back down in the pattern. That is our preferred entry point, but we also note that WTW has stalled at 42.70 two of the past three sessions; thus it could have already made its bounce attempt and will fall from here. Either way we will be ready to mump on positions.
Volume: 394.9K Avg Volume: 762.141K
BUY POINT: From here: $42.24 Test 43, then 42.72 on the way back down. Volume=800K Target=$39.68 Stop=$43.28
POSITION: WTW VI - Oct. $45p (-73 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wtw.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
$SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$368.69; -11.84; optionable): Chip index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$sox.html
STATUS: Put. Chips had been holding up well, forming a nice triangle after a cup with handle from December through May. A market that is in a pullback mode, however, can wear down even good patterns, and that is what happened to chip stocks. NVDA disappointed the chip market and led to open season on semiconductors Friday. SOX did not gap through the 50 day MVA (376.80), but just eroded all session as bounce attempts were tossed aside all session long. It closed just off the session low, and after such a fall we anticipate a test of the breakdown before a substantially lower drop. Looking for a move up toward the 50 day to stall and then roll over. Again, this failed test is our preferred entry point as we catch the stock as it fails and rolls over.
BUY POINT: $372 Target=$354 Stop=$377
POSITION: SOY UO - Sept. $375p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$sox.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ASPT (Aspect Communications--$7.79; +0.05; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aspt.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Telecom remains solid even as the rest of the market pulls back. ASPT broke from a 6 month flat base in July and quickly doubled. Accumulation in the base was outstanding at 9 to 2 (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows there was solid net accumulation in the stock during the base, and it paid off with that huge break higher in July. It is now moving laterally, holding above the 10 day MVA (7.51) for the past three weeks. These lateral moves in stocks showing such strong accumulation and breakouts are typically just lateral way stations befreo the next break higher.
Volume: 637.648K Avg Volume: 527.218K
BUY POINT: $8.06 Volume=791K Target=$10.12 Stop=$7.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aspt.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
MLHR (Herman Miller--$21.52; +0.27; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mlhr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MLHR broke out of an 8 month cup with handle base in late July, surging over 22 on some strong volume. Accumulation in the base was a solid 8 to 5, building the foundation for the breakout move. It tapped the 18 day MVA (21.09) on the Thursday low and started to rebound on rising, above average volume. Big money flow and a relative strength breakout along with the price breakout. Very solid stock, and an excellent point to pick it up off of a breakout test that 'proves up' the breakout.
Volume: 339.12K Avg Volume: 296.012K
BUY POINT: $21.72 Volume=325K Target=$26.12 Stop=$21.04
POSITION: MHQ KD - Nov. $20c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mlhr.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move in.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 44.22 +1.22 44.88 54 594K 1M 41.74
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready to make the breakout on the move off the
18 day MVA.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.1 +0.38 29.06 35 620K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Nice test of the breakout from the 6 month base where
it gapped over the 200 day and has held that move.
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: BEV; ESA
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 08/09 Put 368.69 -11.84 372 354 0 0 377
New.
ADI 08/04 Cup 36.03 -1.24 40.43 47.65 4.6M 5M 37.62
Buy Not Hit. Broke the 50 day. Dropping.
AMZN 05/03 BO 39.15 +0.14 30.3 35.45 4.8M 12M 38.25
Current. Still quietly moving along the 18 day MVA on low volume.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 32.05 -0.05 33.05 40 51K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Will keep watching but looks as if it needs to test
the 50 day and then regroup.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 7.79 +0.05 8.06 10.12 638K 791K 7.45
New.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.04 -0.2 6.5 8.25 337K 500K 6.68
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA though on low volume.
Still solid.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 43.95 +0.55 0 0 319K 0 0
BDY 07/16 Test BO 20.65 +1.32 19.58 23.25 354K 376K 18.88
Current. Finally getting some traction, moving off the 10 day
MVA on volume.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.6 -0.16 13.88 16.65 6.1M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle but starting to test a bit deeper.
It needs to hold up in this area for the handle, but
looks as if it will test the 50 day. Not a disaster
even at that.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.6 -0.16 13.37 16.22 6.1M 16M 12.69
Current.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.48 -0.01 5.54 6.94 608K 1.4M 5.24
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA with a nice tight doji on low
volume.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.44 -0.33 8.98 6.95 559K 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit. Did not rally back up further but started the next
leg lower. Looks solid on a further move lower.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.11 +0.03 3.22 4.05 480K 822K 2.99
Buy Not Issued. Holding at 3 and trying to make the move. Just needs
some volume.
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.61 +0.18 16.24 14.12 92K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued. Trying to hold up over 16, but no volume supporting
it and we look for it to fall this week.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.35 +0.05 5.3 6.68 37K 200K 5.08
Current. Trying to get off the dime after the break higher pulled
back. Holding the 18 day on the intraday lows.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 10.56 -0.34 9.73 11.75 1.1M 1.4M 9.94
Current. Tapped all the way down to the 18 day MVA and rebounded
to hold the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38 +1.23 23.81 28.42 169K 225K 35.94
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38 +1.23 22.75 27.35 169K 225K 35.94
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA. Low volume but no complaints.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 100.5 -0.96 69.45 92 7.6M 12M 105.55
Current. Holding support at 110 for now. Tried to bounce but
fell back.
DIS 08/09 Test 18 21.84 +0.19 0 0 5.9M 0 0
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 100.5 -0.96 62.45 92 7.6M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.16 +0.03 1.88 2.45 369K 210K 2.03
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA on some solid volume.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.59 -0.23 15.34 18.45 106K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit. Looked like it was ready to breakout Thursday but eased
back Friday on low volume.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 14.65 -0.31 10.55 12.75 352K 195K 14.42
Current. Tougher week, falling back to the 18 day MVA but holdint
that level and showing a high volume doji Friday.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 14.65 -0.31 9.2 10.96 352K 195K 14.42
Current.
FTUS 08/02 Test BO 5.92 +0.22 8.05 10.45 222K 350K 7.45
Buy Not Hit. Tanked on the retail sales. Dropping.
GENZ 08/07 Put 43.38 -0.86 44.05 40 2.5M 4M 46
Buy Not Issued. Did not test all the way back up over 45 before turning
over. Can take some positions on a further fall.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.14 -0.06 12.14 14.45 29K 218K 11.55
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA after the nice break higher.
GTRC 08/09 BO 33.73 +0.22 34.12 41 360K 725K 31.73
Buy Not Hit.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.15 +0.46 6.07 7.28 4M 1.7M 5.62
Current. Nice breakout on a strong volume push and a relative
strength breakout as well.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 23.58 -0.41 25.56 30.65 58M 75M 24
Buy Not Hit.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 11.55 0 13.48 16.25 146K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued. Testing the 50 day. Not the move we wanted, but will
watch it this week and see if it can recover.
ITRI 08/06 H&S 18.5 -0.47 19.57 17 518K 200K 20.55
Buy Not Hit. Nice further deop on volume. A good play. We were
waiting for more of a rebound,b ut it was not giving it.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 44.22 +1.22 44.88 54 594K 1M 41.74
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready to make the breakout on the move off the
18 day MVA.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 48.04 -1.72 52.25 60 9.5M 14M 50.12
Exited. Broke the 50 day MVA on volume.
KLIC 08/02 Test BO 8.18 -0.46 9.32 11.75 698K 1.5M 8.48
Exited. Broke the 18 day MVA.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.1 +0.38 29.06 35 620K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Nice test of the breakout from the 6 month base where
it gapped over the 200 day and has held that move.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11.21 +0.21 10.52 12.75 154K 248K 10.14
Current. Managed its own gain on volume Friday despite the market.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 20.51 -0.47 22.25 27.95 297K 488K 21.68
Current.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 20.51 -0.47 22.8 27.95 297K 488K 21.68
Current. Held the 50 day MVA on some rising volume so we let
it run another day.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 21.52 +0.27 21.72 26.12 339K 325K 21.04
New.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 12.96 -0.64 15.4 18.35 17M 16M 14.32
Exited. Broke the 50 day on rising volume.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.64 +0.09 0 0 300K 0 0
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.4 +0.05 3 3.75 617K 900K 3.18
Current. Solid bounce up off the 50 day MVA, moving Friday on
rising volume. It tapped resistance at 3.50 on the
high and fell back. That is the point to clear.
PMTI 08/06 BO 7 +0.1 6.59 7.91 195K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up Thursday on volume then stalled some Friday
though did not give back the gain. Will look for a
test toward 6 that holds as the next entry point.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.46 +0.06 17.75 21.35 99K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.18 +0.06 27.55 33 2.1M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.18 +0.06 26.3 30.94 2.1M 6M 26.45
Current. Holding that support at 26.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 55.07 +0.31 0 0 1.6M 5M 53.75
TGT 08/09 Cup hdl 38.91 +0.91 40.12 48 2.2M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Still in a nice lateral move, testing the 50 day MVA
and trying to break from a 12 month base.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.8 0 4.06 5.65 205K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Still looking good as it moves laterally over the 10
day MVA.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 53.45 -0.76 55.75 62.45 208K 494K 51.85
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 53.45 -0.76 46.85 55.25 208K 603K 53.25
Current. Tapped support at 52.50 and rebounded to hold the 18
day MVA.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 53.45 -0.76 43.75 52 208K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 53.45 -0.76 38.6 44.38 208K 577K 53.25
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.08 +0.07 7.7 9.45 58K 200K 7.21
Current. A nice breakout and now struggling, tapping the 50
day on Thursday but unable to move over the 18 day.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 3.68 -0.2 4.12 5.15 814K 920K 3.74
Exited. Selling below the 18 day on volume so closed it out.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 9.78 -0.14 12.22 14.96 34K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit. Dropping as it broke the 50 day and could not recover.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 30.04 -1.41 28.8 34.12 1.7M 2.1M 30
Current. Rallied back to hold 30 at the close so let it ride,
but wont let it go an further.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 30.04 -1.41 23.45 28 1.7M 2M 30
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 38.82 -0.85 0 0 1.8M 0 0
VRSN 08/02 Dbl Top 12.49 +0.08 12.45 10.65 1.8M 4.4M 12.15
Current. Still working down the 10 day MVA as volume contineus
to drop off.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 29.03 -0.27 19.76 20 6.1M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA and rebounded.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.56 -0.12 16.95 20.45 102K 250K 16.14
Current. Doji at the 10 day MVA on low volume. Letting it work
but getting a bit choppy in this market.
WMT 02/05 Put 57.77 +0.77 0 0 6.7M 8.2M 0
Another nice move higher, breaking the resistance at 57.
WTW 08/09 Put 42.29 +0.39 42.24 39.68 395K 800K 43.28
New.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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