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us stock market, stock tip
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Downside:
Play Date: 08/09/2003
PFG (Principal Financial--$32.09; +0.24; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfg.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in June and then double topped in July at 34. It tanked through the 50 day MVA (32.32) in early August and has now made the lower volume bounce to test that level. Friday PFG tapped the 50 day on the high and fell back on low volume. Under distribution and money flow is tanking ahead of price. Looking for the rollover here.
Volume: 537.8K Avg Volume: 1.009M
BUY POINT: $31.96 Volume=1M Target=$30 Stop=$32.48
POSITION: PFG VG - Oct. $35p (-78 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfg.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
$SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$368.69; -11.84; optionable): Chip index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$sox.html
STATUS: Put. Chips had been holding up well, forming a nice triangle after a cup with handle from December through May. A market that is in a pullback mode, however, can wear down even good patterns, and that is what happened to chip stocks. NVDA disappointed the chip market and led to open season on semiconductors Friday. SOX did not gap through the 50 day MVA (376.80), but just eroded all session as bounce attempts were tossed aside all session long. It closed just off the session low, and after such a fall we anticipate a test of the breakdown before a substantially lower drop. Looking for a move up toward the 50 day to stall and then roll over. Again, this failed test is our preferred entry point as we catch the stock as it fails and rolls over.
BUY POINT: $372 Target=$354 Stop=$377
POSITION: SOY UO - Sept. $375p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/$sox.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/09/2003
IT (Gartner Group--$9.84; +0.05; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/it.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IT is working on an 8 month base showing solid 9 to 7 accumulation (9 up weeks on rising volume to 7 down weeks on rising volume). IT exploded higher as the month started, reporting good earnings, guiding much higher, and getting a slew of upgrades. It has now moved laterally on low volume, holding the gain and moving in a very tight range. Looking for a breakout on volume to follow the strong money flow.
Volume: 130.3K Avg Volume: 280.541K
BUY POINT: $10.05 Volume=421K Target=$12.85 Stop=$9.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/it.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$49.48; -0.88; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ZMH exploded out of a 5 month cup with handle base Wednesday on a huge volume explosion. The move was precipitated by ZMH's apparent frontrunner status in acquiring Centerpulse. Whatever the trigger, ZMH was already in a solid base with 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume versus 3 down weeks on rising volume). ZMH was one of our big winners in 2002 to early 2003, and this is the exact thing it needed: a good, solid base where it consolidates the move, shakes out the sellers, and clears the way for the next move. Thursday and Friday it tested back on lower volume, heading back toward the breakout point at 49. Looking for the test to complete this week with a test of 49 and a move back up on rising volume. Nice pattern.
Volume: 1.791M Avg Volume: 1.985M
BUY POINT: $50.62 Volume=3M Target=$59 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: ZMH LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/28/2003
CHRD (Chordiant Software--$3.11; +0.03; no options): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice hold at support at 3 after the strong gap higher. It is starting to edge higher and now just need some volume. Excellent accumulation, money flow and relative strength breaking out even as the stock tests.
Volume: 480.055K Avg Volume: 723.806K
BUY POINT: $3.22 Volume=822K Target=$4.05 Stop=$2.99
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chrd.html
Play Date: 07/08/2003
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$25.28; +0.39; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Flat. Making the move out of its first base since it was issued in February, a nice 3 month saucer. Volume is not there, however, and we want to see a bit more. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation coupled with strong money flow and relative strength. Love these moves out of first bases.
Volume: 112.238K Avg Volume: 336.441K
BUY POINT: New: 25.32 (orig. $24.92) Volume=435K Target=$29.94 Stop=$24.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 07/24/2003
FRNT (Frontier Airlines--$14.06; +1.29; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FRNT is breaking out of a 15 month base, moving the past week on a noticeable increase in trade. Friday the stock jumped on a solid surge of above average volume. Money flow is leading the way and relative strength is making a breakout. Looks solid.
Volume: 589.7K Avg Volume: 495.221K
BUY POINT: $14.18 Volume=686K Target=$16.98 Stop=$13.08
POSITION: FUO KV - Sept. $12.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frnt.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$13.73; -0.02; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a very nice breakout test with another tight doji right at the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Beautiful 4 to 1 accumulation in the 10 week base, strong money flow, and relative strength ready to breakout.
Volume: 139.615K Avg Volume: 700.014K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tklc.html
Play Date: 07/30/2003
TSAI (Transaction Sys Architects--$11.9; -0.16; optionable): Scientific & technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still in the excellent breakout test, holding easily over the 10 day MVA (11.51) as volume backs off to very low, below average levels. Again, excellent across the board with strong accumulation, money flow and relative strength. Nice low volume pullback and now we need to see a nice high volume jump higher.
Volume: 106.126K Avg Volume: 197.44K
BUY POINT: New: $12.35 (orig. $11.75) Volume=240K Target=$13.88 Stop=$11.12
POSITION: TQR IB - Sept. $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsai.html
Play Date: 07/28/2003
XOMA (Xoma LTD--$8.09; -0.01; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xoma.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. XOMA gave the breakout on strong volume, and has now made the low volume test, tapping at the 10 day MVA (7.80) Thursday and starting to move higher Friday. Needs some volume, but very nice. Super accumulation with money flow rallying and relative strength making the breakout.
Volume: 537.339K Avg Volume: 1.187M
BUY POINT: $8.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$10.22 Stop=$7.67
POSITION: MBU KU - Nov. $7.50c (45 delta) &/or Stock)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xoma.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/17/2003
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$37.65; +0.12; optionable): Medical instruments & supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Put. BDX was selling Friday and we moved into a partial position just to see it rise up to test the 50 day MVA (37.75) yet again. It still looks ripe for the fall as this is the tip of the downtrend. On a drop from here on rising volume we will move in for more positions.
Volume: 833.5K Avg Volume: 1.123M
BUY POINT: $37.25 Volume=900K Target=$34.25 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: BDX UH - Sept. $40p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
BGEN (Biogen--$36.77; -0.08; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped higher to tap toward the 10 day MVA (37.59), giving the test we wanted, and then fell back down. Volume was not there Friday, but we are looking for it to increase this week as BGEN continues to sell.
Volume: 1.153M Avg Volume: 4.384M
BUY POINT: $36.42 Volume=4M Target=$33.25 Stop=$38.15
POSITION: BGQ UH - Sept. $40p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bgen.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$16.61; +0.18; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CMTL broke the 50 day MVA (17.46) Tuesday, tanked Wednesday but rebounded sharply. It has spent the last two sessions moving laterally beow the 50 day on very low volume, tapping at that resistance on the intraday highs. Looking for a sharp drop on jumping volume after this test.
olume: 92.459K Avg Volume: 252.319K
BUY POINT: $16.24 Volume=450K Target=$14.12 Stop=$17.56
POSITION: CQH UW - Sept. $17.50p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 08/07/2003
WYE (Wyeth--$44.46; +0.18; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wye.html
STATUS: Double top. Making the test of the breakdown from the 50 day MVA (45.52), WYE showed a tight doji at the 10 day MVA Friday on lower, below average volume. Looks as if the test of the double top breakdown is complete, and now we just look for WYE to fall on some rising volume.
Volume: 3.476M Avg Volume: 5.156M
BUY POINT: $43.94 Volume=6M Target=$40.38 Stop=$45.25
POSITION: WYE UI - Sept. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wye.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
ACV: Still researching a split date. Trying to hold the 10 day and then continue the move. Support at 55.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Holding the 50 day MVA on continued low, below average volume.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Edging below the 50 day MVA as it forms a more serious consolidation after the long run.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings.
CPWM: Forecast to announce a split 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Not doing it as it sinks below the 50 day MVA.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Still trying to get some traction off the 18 day MVA.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Continuing the decent move up off the 50 day, but needs
to clear 85 to keep us in after this bounce back up.
FOSL: New. Forecast 8-12-03 before the market opens.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings. Looking for a new date but looks awfully good.
HAR: Forecast 8-11 in conjunction with earnings. Hugging the 50 day MVA as it fell back late in the week. It has been a long run and now HAR is starting to consolidate.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Working up the 10 day MVA but no real volume. Just letting it work.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. Working up off the 50 day MVA but not a lot of volume on the bounce. Indicates not a lot of buyers jumping back in at that level.
NDN: Forecast 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Holding the 50 day MVA on very low volume.
PIXR: No split with earnings Thursday night. Sold to the 50 day MVA but rebounded on a huge volume surge.
ROST: New. Forecast 8-20-03 during the market.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16, but that did not stop it. Trying to keep the bounce alive, but stalling some at the 18 day MVA.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Up over the short term MVA but no volume yet so it is at rise up to 57.50.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
FOSL (Fossil--$26.05; +0.46; options): Watches and other fashion accessories. Forecast to announce a split on 8-12-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ROST broke from an 8 month base in early July and rallied sharply. It has spent the last 4 weeks testing that breakout as the market got a bit choppier. It held support at 25 on the pullback and has started higher on rising though still below average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout as FOSL moves up for the next breakout.
Volume: 163.607K Avg Volume: 241.606K
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=362K Target=$31.88 Stop=$25.22
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
ROST (Ross Stores--$45.19; -0.67; optionable): Discount apparel. Forecast to announce a split on 8-20-03 during the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $42.32.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Cup. Working through a7 month base, nearing the December and January highs, using the 18 day MVA (44.77) as support on the move. The past week volume has swelled as the stock moves up toward that breakout point. Retailers are looking solid and a breakout is where we want to get in on this stock.
Volume: 1.134M Avg Volume: 1.076M
BUY POINT: $46.58 Volume=1.6M Target=$54.45 Stop=$43.32
POSITION: REQ KI - Nov. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$55.87; +0.26; optionable): Personal products (beauty aids, etc.). No date pinpointed yet, but a good buy point.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still trying to make the next move, but volume is not coming in. 56 is the point to break on volume for then next buy point.
Volume: 165.1K Avg Volume: 275.121K
BUY POINT: New: $56.25 (orig. $54.80) Volume=400K Target=$65.85 Stop=$54.54
POSITION: ACV IK - Sept. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$54.16; +0.37; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 8-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. On this bounce COCO has held the 18 day MVA (52.88) and is making the bounce, but just not getting any volume. Still very solid and when it runs it can fly. Looking for volume on the move up.
Volume: 364.097K Avg Volume: 722.454K
BUY POINT: New: $55.65 (orig. $54.15) Volume=1.2M Target=$64.75 Stop=$52
POSITION: UCS KJ - Nov. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
GDW (Golden West Financial--$84.89; +0.89; optionable): Savings & Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. GDW has formed up well again, using the 50 day MVA (81.83) as support, rallying up off of that level as it shows solid price/volume action. Excellent money flow and showing positive 3 to 2 accumulation in this 2 month base. Looking very solid from this perennial leader.
Volume: 664.2K Avg Volume: 615.504K
BUY POINT: $85.78 Volume=923K Target=$100 Stop=$83.12
POSITION: GDW KQ - Nov. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gdw.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$64.23; +1.2; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1, date not set.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Thought Friday was the day with BSX moving higher with a good price move off of the 10 day MVA (63.02). Volume was not there, however, but it looks ready to make the move. Looks excellent.
Volume: 1.956M Avg Volume: 3.765M
BUY POINT: $64.81 Volume=5M Target=$74.55 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: BSX IL - Sept. $60c (74 delta) or BSX KM - Nov. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CECO (Career Education--$83.99; +0.49; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 8-25-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CECO continues to look great, moving up off the 18 day MVA (80.78) Wednesday and Thursday but still on low trade. Still waiting for it to break from this lateral pattern on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 506.386K Avg Volume: 847.154K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=1M Target=$95.25 Stop=$79.28
POSITION: CUY JQ - Oct. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 08/05/2003
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$25.82; +0.12; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 4:3 on 8-15-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a nice breakout test, holding the 18 day MVA (25.27) on the intraday lows and rebounding on the close. There is some resistance at 26, and we want to see MMSI smash through that on volume. MMSI broke out of a 10 month cup with handle base two weeks back and then added some fuel to the fire with a split announcement. The stock rallied from 23 to 28 and is now in a modest pullback to test the move. Huge money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 76.45K Avg Volume: 122.25K
BUY POINT: $26.72 Volume=183K Target=$32 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: RMQ JE - Oct. $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mmsi.html
Play Date: 08/07/2003
RNT (Aaron Rents--$28.76; +0.14; no options): Rental & leasing. Splits 3:2 on 8-18
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rnt.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Friday RNT started to make the breakout, gapping higher, but unable to advance the ball as volume remained well below average. Still working on the breakout from a nice little 5 week ascending triangle right at the end of a long 15 month cup base. The pattern has formed right at the point where the base started, i.e., where it started to fall after a strong run to that point in early 2002. Accumulation in the small pattern is a solid 2 to 0, and price/volume action and relative strength look solid. We were ready to move but the volume never showed up. Still solid and looking for another move on some more trade.
Volume: 80.1K Avg Volume: 94.998K
BUY POINT: $29.04 Volume=140K Target=$33.45 Stop=$27.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rnt.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock tip
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