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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 08/09/2003
PFG (Principal Financial--$32.09; +0.24; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfg.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in June and then double topped in July at 34. It tanked through the 50 day MVA (32.32) in early August and has now made the lower volume bounce to test that level. Friday PFG tapped the 50 day on the high and fell back on low volume. Under distribution and money flow is tanking ahead of price. Looking for the rollover here.
Volume: 537.8K Avg Volume: 1.009M
BUY POINT: $31.96 Volume=1M Target=$30 Stop=$32.48
POSITION: PFG VG - Oct. $35p (-78 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pfg.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
$SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$368.69; -11.84; optionable): Chip index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$sox.html
STATUS: Put. Chips had been holding up well, forming a nice triangle after a cup with handle from December through May. A market that is in a pullback mode, however, can wear down even good patterns, and that is what happened to chip stocks. NVDA disappointed the chip market and led to open season on semiconductors Friday. SOX did not gap through the 50 day MVA (376.80), but just eroded all session as bounce attempts were tossed aside all session long. It closed just off the session low, and after such a fall we anticipate a test of the breakdown before a substantially lower drop. Looking for a move up toward the 50 day to stall and then roll over. Again, this failed test is our preferred entry point as we catch the stock as it fails and rolls over.
BUY POINT: $372 Target=$354 Stop=$377
POSITION: SOY UO - Sept. $375p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/$sox.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$49.48; -0.88; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ZMH exploded out of a 5 month cup with handle base Wednesday on a huge volume explosion. The move was precipitated by ZMH's apparent frontrunner status in acquiring Centerpulse. Whatever the trigger, ZMH was already in a solid base with 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume versus 3 down weeks on rising volume). ZMH was one of our big winners in 2002 to early 2003, and this is the exact thing it needed: a good, solid base where it consolidates the move, shakes out the sellers, and clears the way for the next move. Thursday and Friday it tested back on lower volume, heading back toward the breakout point at 49. Looking for the test to complete this week with a test of 49 and a move back up on rising volume. Nice pattern.
Volume: 1.791M Avg Volume: 1.985M
BUY POINT: $50.62 Volume=3M Target=$59 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: ZMH LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zmh.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
CB (Chubb--$65.52; +0.12; optionable): P&I Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CB is moving in a nice tight handle to a 9 week base showing excellent 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume versus 1 down price week on rising volume). An excellent pattern with solid money flow nad relative strength. Very nice as some insureres are looking to benefit from rising interest rates.
Volume: 1.522M Avg Volume: 1.833M
BUY POINT: $66.06 Volume=2.7M Target=$75.97 Stop=$63.04
POSITION: CB JM - Oct. $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cb.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ASPT (Aspect Communications--$7.79; +0.05; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aspt.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Telecom remains solid even as the rest of the market pulls back. ASPT broke from a 6 month flat base in July and quickly doubled. Accumulation in the base was outstanding at 9 to 2 (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows there was solid net accumulation in the stock during the base, and it paid off with that huge break higher in July. It is now moving laterally, holding above the 10 day MVA (7.51) for the past three weeks. These lateral moves in stocks showing such strong accumulation and breakouts are typically just lateral way stations befreo the next break higher.
Volume: 637.648K Avg Volume: 527.218K
BUY POINT: $8.06 Volume=791K Target=$10.12 Stop=$7.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aspt.html
Continuing plays that look ready:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$13.73; -0.02; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a very nice breakout test with another tight doji right at the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Beautiful 4 to 1 accumulation in the 10 week base, strong money flow, and relative strength ready to breakout.
Volume: 139.615K Avg Volume: 700.014K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tklc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/05/2003
MIL (Millipore--$41.88; -0.53; optionable): Scientific & technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mil.html
STATUS: Put. MIL tested up to the 50 day MVA (43) Friday as expected, and started to roll over. We entered some positions even though volume was lower. It looks ready to make a bigger drop here but we want to see more volume for new positions.
Volume: 192.6K Avg Volume: 397.264K
BUY POINT: New: $41.72 (orig. $42.02) Volume=500K Target=$39.15 Stop=$43.14
POSITION: MIL UI - Sept. 45p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mil.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Still look good: IMA; MMSI
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 08/09 Put 368.69 -11.84 372 354 0 0 377
New.
ADI 08/04 Cup 36.03 -1.24 40.43 47.65 4.6M 5M 37.62
Buy Not Hit. Broke the 50 day. Dropping.
ADVP 08/07 H&S 37.92 +1.4 36.75 32.22 1.8M 1.8M 38.45
Buy Not Hit. Gapped back over the 50 day MVA in one move. We were
looking for a test though much stronger move than anticipated.
Will see if it stumbles here on volume.
AMEV 07/26 A Wedge 6.1 +0.04 5.75 6.88 20K 200K 5.68
Current.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 6.1 +0.04 4.75 6 20K 102K 5.68
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA after a high volume tanke on
Tuesday. Showed some guts by hanging in there.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 7.79 +0.05 8.06 10.12 638K 791K 7.45
New.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 20.65 +1.32 19.58 23.25 354K 376K 18.88
Current. Finally getting some traction, moving off the 10 day
MVA on volume.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 21.4 +0.1 20.9 24.95 138K 321K 21.62
Current. Continues to form a nice, quiet hadnel to the long base.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.44 -0.33 8.98 6.95 559K 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit. Did not rally back up further but started the next
leg lower. Looks solid on a further move lower.
CB 08/09 Cup hdl 65.52 +0.12 66.06 75.97 1.5M 2.7M 63.04
New.
CCMP 07/07 Cup hdl 59.09 -0.46 61.05 71 781K 1.3M 59.25
Exited. Broke the 18 day and we bailed but it managed to recover
some lost ground in the last few minutes to end with
a doji.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 24.95 +0.18 19.25 23.25 283K 225K 24.35
Current. Gapped lower but was coming back all session so we
hung with it. Needs to clear 26 this week.
CHS 07/23 Test BO 27.19 +0.2 27.05 31.25 536K 2.2M 25.98
Current. Struggling to get going afte the good start on the
breakout. Solid stock so letting it work.
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.61 +0.18 16.24 14.12 92K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued. Trying to hold up over 16, but no volume supporting
it and we look for it to fall this week.
CMVT 08/02 Dbl Top 13.48 -0.14 13.85 11.85 1.2M 3.5M 14.24
Current. Still workign down the 18 day MVA.
COHU 07/24 Rv H&S 18.24 -0.46 19.85 23.88 73K 155K 19.12
Exited.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.35 +0.05 5.3 6.68 37K 200K 5.08
Current. Trying to get off the dime after the break higher pulled
back. Holding the 18 day on the intraday lows.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 10.56 -0.34 9.73 11.75 1.1M 1.4M 9.94
Current. Tapped all the way down to the 18 day MVA and rebounded
to hold the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
CSC 08/04 DB hdl 41.63 -0.43 42.88 48.45 1.2M 2.4M 39.88
Buy Not Issued. Looks solid still as CSC pulls back to test the 10
day MVA in the handle.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38 +1.23 23.81 28.42 169K 225K 35.94
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38 +1.23 22.75 27.35 169K 225K 35.94
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA. Low volume but no complaints.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 21.06 -0.87 22.62 26 731K 1.7M 21.04
Buy Not Issued. Not the move we wanted to see as the bounce up off
the 50 day failed. Will continue to watch it off the
50 day again but dropping for now.
EBKR 08/04 BO 17.2 +0.15 19.55 23.48 64K 200K 18.09
Buy Not Hit. Did not make the continuation move, falling below the
18 day MVA. Dropping for now.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 7.21 -0.27 8.75 10.48 85K 400K 8.14
Buy Not Issued. Fell below the 50 day MVA. Dropping .
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 14.65 -0.31 10.55 12.75 352K 195K 14.42
Current. Tougher week, falling back to the 18 day MVA but holdint
that level and showing a high volume doji Friday.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 14.65 -0.31 9.2 10.96 352K 195K 14.42
Current.
GNTA 08/06 H&S 11.69 -0.04 11.64 9.45 627K 1.1M 12.35
Buy Not Hit. Tapped toward 12 and showed a doji on slightly rising
volume. Looks ready to fall.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 54 +1.78 41.75 48 282K 766K 52.35
Current. Up off support at 50 though on low volume.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 54 +1.78 26.5 30.75 282K 521K 53.25
Current.
IDT 07/12 Cup hdl 17.79 -0.15 18.48 21.95 72K 200K 17.44
Buy Not Issued. Trying our patience but just keeping an eye on it.
IMA 07/28 A Wedge 20.6 -0.3 21.42 25.72 63K 115K 20.38
Buy Not Hit. Still holding in the nice base with volume falling
off as it tests the 18 day.
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 5.49 +0.07 5.52 7 1.1M 244K 5.13
Current. Holding the break higher.
Breaking below the 18 day on rising volume. Dropping
for now.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 23.58 -0.41 25.56 30.65 58M 75M 24
Buy Not Hit.
INTU 06/26 Put 42.3 -0.46 41.8 38.05 2.1M 6M 43.68
Current. Continues working laterally under the 50 day MVA on
low volume. Letting it work more in the market weakness.
ITRI 08/06 H&S 18.5 -0.47 19.57 17 518K 200K 20.55
Buy Not Hit. Nice further deop on volume. A good play. We were
waiting for more of a rebound,b ut it was not giving it.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 48.04 -1.72 52.25 60 9.5M 14M 50.12
Exited. Broke the 50 day MVA on volume.
KLIC 08/02 Test BO 8.18 -0.46 9.32 11.75 698K 1.5M 8.48
Exited. Broke the 18 day MVA.
LAVA 08/07 DB hdl 20.39 -0.46 20.96 25.15 2M 1.2M 19.49
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher and ran, but we waited to see if it would
hold. It hit 22.40 on the high but could not hold the
move so we waited.
LLTC 07/23 Rv H&S 35.13 -0.68 37.35 44.85 4.8M 9M 35.55
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA. Did not break it so we let it
ride another day.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 68.64 +0.38 58.5 67.78 258K 610K 68.15
Current. Working up off the 50 day MVA but not a lot of volume
on the bounce. Indicates not a lot of buyers jumping
back in at that level.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11.21 +0.21 10.52 12.75 154K 248K 10.14
Current. Managed its own gain on volume Friday despite the market.
MIL 08/05 Put 41.88 -0.53 42.02 39.15 193K 500K 43.14
Current. Tapped the 50 day and then rolled over.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 20.51 -0.47 22.25 27.95 297K 488K 21.68
Current.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 20.51 -0.47 22.8 27.95 297K 488K 21.68
Current. Held the 50 day MVA on some rising volume so we let
it run another day.
MMSI 08/05 Test BO 25.82 +0.12 26.72 32 76K 183K 25.55
Buy Not Hit. Still testing the 18 day MVA on low volume and a tight
range.
MRVL 08/02 Cup hdl 32.58 -1.63 36.28 43.55 3.7M 4.9M 33.74
Buy Not Hit. Breaking down below the 50 day. Dropping.
NENG 08/04 Test BO 4.53 -0.09 5.12 6.35 332K 232K 4.66
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on low volume. Has to make the
bounce here or we exit.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.4 +0.05 3 3.75 617K 900K 3.18
Current. Solid bounce up off the 50 day MVA, moving Friday on
rising volume. It tapped resistance at 3.50 on the
high and fell back. That is the point to clear.
PFG 08/09 Put 32.09 +0.24 31.96 30 538K 1M 32.48
New.
PG 08/02 H&S 89.08 +0.88 86.54 83 2M 4M 87.88
Buy Not Issued. Moved up to the 50 day MVA on low, below average volume.
Will see if turns over here in the head and shoulders.
PMTI 08/06 BO 7 +0.1 6.59 7.91 195K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up Thursday on volume then stalled some Friday
though did not give back the gain. Will look for a
test toward 6 that holds as the next entry point.
RIMM 07/31 Cup hdl 24.61 -0.19 25.58 29.35 1.2M 2.5M 23.79
Buy Not Issued. The takeover excitement has died down so we will let
it move laterally and give another break higher on
volume over 25.50.
SIE 07/30 Test BO 23.25 -0.27 27.12 32.55 210K 700K 25.22
Buy Not Hit. Too deep of a test. Dropping for now but will continue
to watch.
SRA 08/04 Cup hdl 15.4 -0.21 16.74 20.12 68K 247K 15.57
Buy Not Hit. Still testing back, falling toward the 50 day MVA.
Not as great a pattern.
SWIR 07/07 Test BO 8.71 -0.79 7.38 8.96 560K 355K 8.96
Exited. Broke the 18 day MVA so we took the gain.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.8 0 4.06 5.65 205K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Still looking good as it moves laterally over the 10
day MVA.
TKLC 08/02 Test BO 13.73 -0.02 14.78 17.75 140K 1M 13.75
Buy Not Hit. Nice tight doji at the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TSAI 07/30 Cup hdl 11.9 -0.16 11.75 13.88 106K 240K 11.12
Current. Still a nice test of the breakout, holding over the
10 day MVA.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 53.45 -0.76 46.85 55.25 208K 603K 53.25
Current. Tapped support at 52.50 and rebounded to hold the 18
day MVA.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 53.45 -0.76 43.75 52 208K 603K 53.25
Current.
TUES 08/06 Cup hdl 27.45 -0.19 28.88 34.65 172K 309K 26.94
Buy Not Hit. Still holding the handle to the base.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 9.78 -0.14 12.22 14.96 34K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit. Dropping as it broke the 50 day and could not recover.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 29.03 -0.27 19.76 20 6.1M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA and rebounded.
VSEA 07/12 Test BO 30.76 -1.89 34.5 40.95 903K 1.4M 32.08
Exited. Slid below the 50 day MVA on more volume so closed it.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.56 -0.12 16.95 20.45 102K 250K 16.14
Current. Doji at the 10 day MVA on low volume. Letting it work
but getting a bit choppy in this market.
XICO 07/02 A Wedge 8.85 -0.1 7.25 8.65 395K 172K 8.38
Current. Decent week, moving up to 9, but that is the level
it has to punch through. Big volume surge Friday so
it looks to be getting ready.
XOMA 07/28 Test BO 8.09 -0.01 8.25 10.22 537K 1.5M 7.67
Buy Not Issued. Now it is making the test, holding the 10 day MVA and
starting to bounce.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 49.48 -0.88 50.62 59 1.8M 3M 47.88
New.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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