stock split, stock recommendation

Begin part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS

Monday good movers: PFG; BEBE; DSPG; DADE; GPRO; JBLU; JWN; RNT; UNTD; XOMA

In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.

NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.

Upside:

Play Date: 08/11/2003
ERICY (LM Ericsson Telephone--$13.83; -0.2; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ericy.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. We honestly never thought we would look at ERICY again after its meltdown, but it put together a solid 8 month cup with handle as it came off its bottom. Accumulation was a strong 8 to 3 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). It broke out in July, rallied, and is now testing back on very low, below average volume. It is holding just over the 18 day MVA (13.51) on the test with strong money flow and relative strength to match the accumulation. Big doji Monday, and it looks as if ERICY is going to tray a move soon. Just going to let it make the move if it will then move in.
Volume: 1.435M Avg Volume: 4.01M
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=5M Target=$17.74 Stop=$13.65
POSITION: RQC JV - Oct. $12.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ericy.html

Play Date: 08/11/2003
PRLS (Peerless Sys.--$3.17; +0.04; no options): Wholesale computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prls.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout PRLS broke out of a 2.5 month cup with handle base in June and rallied up the short term MVA to 3.20. for the past month it has been consolidating that move with a low volume ascending triangle. That often leads to another break higher. Huge money flow and a relative strength breakout show the strength of the pattern. Super 6 to 0 accumulation in the prior base and 2 to 0 accumulation in the short triangle. Looks solid.
Volume: 12.907K Avg Volume: 85.454K
BUY POINT: $3.29 Volume=110K Target=$4.12 Stop=$3.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prls.html

CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS

Play Date: 07/08/2003
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$25.55; +0.27; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Flat. Nice. Making the higher volume move we were looking for with volume moving up to average. A new issue in February, and it is breaking out of its first base. Our favorite time to buy. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation coupled with strong money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 285.864K Avg Volume: 326.545K
BUY POINT: New: 25.65 (orig. $24.92) Volume=435K Target=$29.94 Stop=$24.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html

Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$14.14; +0.41; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Moving up off the 18 day MVA test on some rising though still below average volume. Very nice action coupled with excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the 10 week base. Strong money flow, and relative strength ready to breakout.
Volume: 412.631K Avg Volume: 678.545K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tklc.html

Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$49.12; -0.36; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues the test of the huge move out of a 5 month cup with handle base Wednesday. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume versus 3 down weeks on rising volume). A winner from 2001 to 2002 looks ready to go again.
Volume: 1.25M Avg Volume: 1.99M
BUY POINT: $50.62 Volume=3M Target=$59 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: ZMH LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html

Downside:

Play Date: 08/09/2003
$SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$377.02; 8.33; optionable): Chip index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$sox.html
STATUS: Put. Like clockwork SOX has given a test of the Friday break lower, bouncing up to the 50 day MVA on the close. It traded over that level, but came back to close right at that level. So far it is going according to script. Now we wait and see if it makes the next breakdown. Aggressive can move in a bit earlier if it does drop. ZRAN warned after hours but it was based on acquisition costs of OAKT so it may not impact chips. That is best. It is better to see if they fall of their own weight.
BUY POINT: $372 Target=$354 Stop=$377
POSITION: SOY UO - Sept. $375p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/$sox.html

Play Date: 08/07/2003
WYE (Wyeth--$44.55; +0.32; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wye.html
STATUS: Double top. One more test of the 10 day MVA on the Monday high (44.75) as volume backed off even further below average. This move is the test of its breakdown from the 50 day MVA (45.52), the move dominated by low volume on the recent rise. Again, looks as if the test of the double top breakdown is complete.
Volume: 2.852M Avg Volume: 5.03M
BUY POINT: $43.94 Volume=6M Target=$40.38 Stop=$45.25
POSITION: WYE UI - Sept. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wye.html

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS

We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.

Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:

Play Date: 08/09/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$26.17; +0.12; optionable): Watches and other fashion accessories. Forecast to announce a split on 8-12-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FOSL started higher Monday on a good shot of above average volume, but after hitting 26.80 on the high it could not make the move stick and faded. It is showing a lot of life in this month-long test of the breakout from its 8 month base in early July. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout as FOSL moves up for the next breakout.
Volume: 277.038K Avg Volume: 235.909K
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=362K Target=$31.88 Stop=$25.22
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html

PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:

Play Date: 07/31/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$65.14; +0.91; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1, date not set.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Approaching the breakout of its 2 month base, BSX has looked ready that past two sessions, but volume has not been there. Volume edged higher Monday but was still well below average. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is already making the next breakout, a bullish sign.
Volume: 2.306M Avg Volume: 3.676M
BUY POINT: New: $65.28 (orig. $64.81) Volume=5M Target=$74.55 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: BSX IL - Sept. $60c (74 delta) or BSX KM - Nov. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html

Play Date: 07/31/2003
CECO (Career Education--$85.02; +1.03; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 8-25-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Edging higher toward the breakout, CECO tapped the 10 day MVA on the low Monday and bounced, but still could not attract any serious trade. Excellent pattern and we are waiting patiently for the move.
Volume: 501.894K Avg Volume: 839.318K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=1M Target=$95.25 Stop=$79.28
POSITION: CUY JQ - Oct. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html

WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING

LEGEND

DATE: date play first appeared on report.

PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);

PIVOT=Buy point

Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.

Vol=Volume for the most recent session.

TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.

Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

$SOX 08/09 Put 377.02 +8.33 372 354 0 0 377
Buy Not Issued.

ACV 08/04 Test 18 55.84 -0.03 56.45 65.85 131K 400K 52.5
Buy Not Issued.

ACV 07/19 BO 55.84 -0.03 54.8 65.85 131K 400K 54.85
Current.

ADVP 08/07 H&S 38.68 +0.76 36.75 32.22 1.3M 1.8M 38.45
Buy Not Hit.

AMEV 07/26 A Wedge 5.92 -0.18 5.75 6.88 25K 200K 5.68
Current.

AMEV 06/07 Test BO 5.92 -0.18 4.75 6 25K 102K 5.68
Current.

AMSWA 07/29 Cup hdl 5.52 +0.12 6.04 7.55 34K 197K 5.62
Buy Not Issued.

AVP 03/29 BO 62.89 +0.26 57.58 65.88 602K 1.7M 61.68
Current.

BCR 07/03 Test 50 68.9 +0.1 72.94 84 372K 600K 70.85
Buy Not Hit.

BDX 07/17 Put 37.72 +0.07 37.25 34.25 590K 900K 37.94
Current.

BEBE 07/01 Test BO 21.99 +0.59 20.9 24.95 172K 321K 21.62
Current.

BGEN 08/05 Put 36.65 -0.12 36.42 33.25 1.8M 4M 38.15
Buy Not Issued.

BSX 07/31 Cup hdl 65.14 +0.91 64.81 74.55 2.3M 5M 60.55
Buy Not Issued.

CBK 07/31 Flat 39.55 +0.97 40.06 46 167K 450K 37.26
Buy Not Hit.

CECO 07/31 FlyPlat 85.02 +1.03 85.25 95.25 502K 1M 79.28
Buy Not Hit.

CECO 07/19 Test 18 85.02 +1.03 75.74 86.55 502K 1.2M 78.72
Current.

CECO 05/29 Test 50 85.02 +1.03 62.55 73.45 502K 1M 80.35
Current.

CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 25.28 +0.33 19.25 23.25 300K 225K 24.35
Current.

CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.12 +0.01 3.22 4.05 615K 822K 2.99
Buy Not Issued.

CHS 07/23 Test BO 27.09 -0.1 27.05 31.25 504K 2.2M 25.98
Current.

CMTL 08/05 Put 16.75 +0.14 16.24 14.12 82K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued.

CMVT 08/02 Dbl Top 13.41 -0.07 13.85 11.85 2.2M 3.5M 14.24
Current.

COCO 07/19 Test 50 54.96 +0.8 54.15 64.75 308K 1.2M 52.82
Current.

COH 07/10 BO 52.86 -0.82 55.79 65 909K 1.4M 51.88
Current.

CPWM 07/31 Test 50 35.16 +0.72 40.06 48 242K 375K 37.94
Buy Not Hit.

DADE 07/08 Flat 25.55 +0.27 24.92 29.94 286K 435K 24.38
Current.

DHR 08/07 DB hdl 72.62 +0.07 73.52 84.55 616K 1.6M 70.72
Buy Not Hit.

DSPG 07/19 A Wedge 25.39 +0.92 25.96 31.45 150K 536K 24.88
Current.

EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 101.86 +1.36 102.25 108.25 5.8M 9M 99.95
Buy Not Hit.

EBAY 03/08 BO 101.86 +1.36 80.08 92 5.8M 8M 105.55
Current.

ERICY 08/11 Test 18 13.83 -0.2 14.78 17.74 1.4M 5M 13.65
New.

ETN 05/31 Cup hdl 84.61 +1.01 86 100 639K 650K 83.94
Current.

FOSL 08/09 Test BO 26.17 +0.12 26.55 31.88 277K 362K 25.22
Buy Not Issued.

FRNT 07/24 Cup hdl 14.12 +0.06 14.18 16.98 325K 686K 13.08
Buy Not Issued.

GDW 08/09 A Wedge 84.99 +0.1 85.78 100 786K 923K 83.12
New.

GNTA 08/06 H&S 12.09 +0.4 11.64 9.45 797K 1.1M 12.35
Buy Not Hit.

GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 55.48 +1.48 41.75 48 310K 766K 52.35
Current.

GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 55.48 +1.48 26.5 30.75 310K 521K 53.25
Current.

HAR 07/31 BO 79.91 0 85.25 98 167K 420K 81.25
Buy Not Hit.

IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 5.23 -0.26 5.52 7 793K 244K 5.13
Current.

INTU 06/26 Put 42.97 +0.67 41.8 38.05 2M 6M 43.68
Current.

IT 08/09 Cup hdl 9.63 -0.21 10.05 12.85 205K 421K 9.35
Buy Not Hit.

JBHT 07/26 FlyPlat 46.39 +1.18 47.74 54.94 299K 750K 44.65
Buy Not Hit.

JBLU 07/26 BO 48.04 +1.22 46.32 55.64 918K 1.5M 45.06
Current.

JWN 08/04 Cup hdl 22.45 +0.43 22.48 27 1.2M 1.4M 21.35
Current.

KSWS 07/12 Test 50 35.96 0 37.12 44.65 80K 312K 34.65
Buy Not Issued.

KSWS 04/21 FlyPlat 35.96 0 30.66 35.75 80K 304K 36.94

LAVA 08/07 DB hdl 20.43 +0.04 20.96 25.15 450K 1.2M 19.49
Buy Not Issued.

LIN 07/26 Saucer 25.85 -0.45 27.24 32.65 395K 942K 25.42
Buy Not Hit.

LM 07/12 Test 18 68.55 -0.09 70.88 80 182K 700K 65.92
Buy Not Issued.

LM 05/06 Cup hdl 68.55 -0.09 58.5 67.78 182K 610K 68.15
Current.

MATK 07/30 A Wedge 46.32 +1.47 50.25 57.85 298K 799K 46.73
Buy Not Hit.

MMSI 08/05 Test BO 25.7 -0.12 26.72 32 68K 183K 25.55
Buy Not Hit.

NDN 08/02 DB hdl 33.35 -0.34 35.12 42.25 315K 800K 4.08
Buy Not Hit.

PFG 08/09 Put 31.53 -0.56 31.88 30 895K 1M 32.35
Current.

PRLS 08/11 A Wedge 3.17 +0.04 3.29 4.12 13K 110K 3.04
New.

RIMM 07/31 Cup hdl 24.88 +0.27 25.58 29.35 544K 2.5M 23.79
Buy Not Issued.

RNT 08/07 A Wedge 29.7 +0.94 29.62 34 157K 140K 28.18
Current.

ROST 08/09 Cup 45 -0.19 46.58 54.45 641K 1.6M 43.32
Buy Not Hit.

SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.41 +0.23 27.55 33 2.2M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.

SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.41 +0.23 26.3 30.94 2.2M 6M 26.45
Current.

SLM 06/24 Test 18 41.2 -0.17 42.88 49.25 1.1M 3.5M 41
Buy Not Hit.

SRA 08/04 Cup hdl 15.65 +0.25 16.74 20.12 229K 247K 15.57
Buy Not Hit.

SYK 08/03 Test BO 75.52 +1.32 76.88 88.45 586K 1.1M 75.12
Buy Not Hit.

TKLC 08/02 Test BO 14.14 +0.41 14.78 17.75 413K 1M 13.75
Buy Not Hit.

TSAI 07/30 Cup hdl 10.88 -1.02 11.75 13.88 669K 240K 11.12
Exited. Gapped lower, used the bounce off the low to exit.

TSCO 07/29 Test BO 54.79 +1.34 55.75 62.45 184K 494K 51.85
Buy Not Hit.

TSCO 07/05 Test 50 54.79 +1.34 51.25 60 184K 500K 53.25
Current.

TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 54.79 +1.34 46.85 55.25 184K 603K 53.25
Current.

TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 54.79 +1.34 43.75 52 184K 603K 53.25
Current.

TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 54.79 +1.34 38.6 44.38 184K 577K 53.25
Current.

TUES 08/06 Cup hdl 28.02 +0.57 28.88 34.65 222K 309K 26.94
Buy Not Hit.

UNTD 07/12 Test BO 31.61 +1.57 28.8 34.12 1.3M 2.1M 30
Current.

UNTD 05/29 Flat 31.61 +1.57 23.45 28 1.3M 2M 30
Current.

WSH 07/12 Put 28.47 -0.22 28.65 26 1M 1.4M 29.85
Current.

WYE 08/07 Dbl Top 44.55 +0.32 43.94 40.38 2.9M 6M 45.25
Buy Not Hit.

XOMA 07/28 Test BO 8.4 +0.31 8.35 10.24 849K 1.5M 7.85
Current.

ZMH 08/09 Test BO 49.12 -0.36 50.62 59 1.2M 3M 47.88
Buy Not Hit.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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