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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Correction: ASPT buy was issued Monday.
Good moves Monday: ASTSF; BDY; FLSH; HL UNTD
Weekend play results:
WTW: Made the 10 day MVA test and started to fall. Just needs more volume.
SOX: Made the 50 day MVA test and now is ready.
ASPT: Shot higher on volume but ended up giving much of the move back.
MLHR: Continued the bounce but volume trailed way off pace.
New Plays for Tuesday:
Downside:
Play Date: 08/11/2003
DRL (Doral Financial--$43.53; +0.16; optionable): Doral Financial
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drl.html
STATUS: Put. DRL broke through the 50 day MVA (44.24) 8 sessions back, gapped lower, and then bounced the past week on lower volume. Monday DRL gapped higher to the 50 day and then rolled lower on rising volume. It managed a gain but the stock is under distribution and money flow is leading lower. Looks ready to roll back down.
Volume: 615K Avg Volume: 496.636K
BUY POINT: $43.33 Volume=550K Target=$40 Stop=$44.44
POSITION: DRL WI - Nov. $45p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/drl.html
Upside:
Play Date: 08/11/2003
ANSR (Answerthink--$3.18; +0.18; no options): ITS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in an 8.5 month base showing solid 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). That is some solid accumulation in a nice, rounded cup base. ANSR has edged back on very low volume the past week, tapping the 18 day MVA (2.91) and moving up. Volume was low as ANSR jumped Monday, but we will see if it can regain that solid surge it showed as it moved up to complete the base and provide us a strong breakout.
Volume: 79.745K Avg Volume: 233.59K
BUY POINT: $3.45 Volume=350K Target=$4.22 Stop=$3.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ansr.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
Play Date: 08/09/2003
TGT (Target--$39.15; +0.24; optionable): Discount variety
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TGT is in a 2.5 month handle to a long, 18 month base. There have been smaller bases within this base, but this big cup is the overriding pattern. During the handle (which is basically a flat base) accumulation is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. After a quick test down to the 50 day MVA (37.52) last week TGT has rallied on some solid volume and is approachign the breakout point.
Volume: 3.103M Avg Volume: 3.699M
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=5.7M Target=$48 Stop=$37.31
POSITION: TGT JH - Oct. $40c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tgt.html
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: $SOX is at the 50 day; ASTSF looks ready to make its next move; ASPT still looks good; BEV; COLT is showing a nice test; KKD; PWN; WYE looks super.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 08/09 Put 377.02 +8.33 372 354 0 0 377
Buy Not Issued. Has made the 50 day MVA and now we see if it will make the roll back down.
AMZN 05/03 BO 38.93 -0.22 30.3 35.45 5.3M 12M 38.25
Current. Still working laterally along the 18 day MVA on low volume.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.18 +0.18 3.45 4.22 80K 350K 3.18
New.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 32.57 +0.52 33.05 40 47K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 8 +0.21 8.06 10.12 1.5M 791K 7.45
Current. Raced higher on volume but could not hold the high at 8.49. Still look solid.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.52 +0.48 6.5 8.25 520K 500K 6.68
Current. Great volume move up off the 10 day MVA back to the 7.50 level. Next buy point: 7.75
AVID 08/09 Test 18 45.83 +1.88 0 0 618K 0 0
Up off the 18 day MVA on rising though still below average volume.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 22.68 +2.03 19.58 23.25 907K 376K 18.88
Current. Excellent move on outstanding volume.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.5 -0.1 13.88 16.65 5.2M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.5 -0.1 13.37 16.22 5.2M 16M 12.69
Current. Still holding at 12.50 in the new handle.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.45 -0.03 5.54 6.94 682K 1.4M 5.24
Current. Lazy test back to the 18 day MVA. Setting up for the next jump.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.42 -0.02 8.98 6.95 642K 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.12 +0.01 3.22 4.05 615K 822K 2.99
Buy Not Issued. Still holding support at 3. Want it over 3.25.
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.75 +0.14 16.24 14.12 82K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.28 -0.07 5.3 6.68 5.7K 200K 5.08
Current.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 10.67 +0.11 9.73 11.75 644K 1.4M 9.94
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA as it continues the test on low volume.
DIS 08/09 Test 18 22.05 +0.21 0 0 6.6M 0 0
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38.7 +0.7 23.81 28.42 421K 225K 35.94
Current. Gapped higher again and on strong volume.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38.7 +0.7 22.75 27.35 421K 225K 35.94
Current.
DRL 08/11 Put 43.53 +0.16 43.33 40 615K 550K 44.44
New.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 101.86 +1.36 69.45 92 5.8M 12M 105.55
Current. Up off support at 110 but not much trade.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 101.86 +1.36 62.45 92 5.8M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.24 +0.08 1.88 2.45 555K 210K 2.03
Current. Gapping higher as it continues up the 10 day MVA.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.77 +0.18 15.34 18.45 184K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 15.17 +0.52 10.55 12.75 286K 195K 14.42
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA test on above average volume.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 15.17 +0.52 9.2 10.96 286K 195K 14.42
Current.
GENZ 08/07 Put 45.14 +1.76 44.05 40 2.9M 4M 46
Buy Not Issued.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.2 +0.06 12.14 14.45 79K 218K 11.55
Current. Lateral move over the 10 day MVA.
GTRC 08/09 BO 33.25 -0.48 34.12 41 979K 725K 31.73
Buy Not Hit.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.33 +0.18 6.07 7.28 2.6M 1.7M 5.62
Current. Still moving higher on solid volume.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 12.04 +0.49 13.48 16.25 417K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued.
ITRI 08/06 H&S 18.9 +0.4 19.57 17 191K 200K 20.55
Buy Not Hit.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 44.8 +0.58 44.88 54 925K 1M 41.74
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher on rising volume. Thought about moving in but was pulling back. On a test of 44 that holds and rebounds, that is a good entry point. Otherwise a move from here on continued volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.41 +0.31 29.06 35 585K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 10.99 -0.21 10.52 12.75 99K 248K 10.14
Current. Moving laterally over the 10 day on low volume. Hanging onto the small gain thus far.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 21.05 +0.54 22.25 27.95 252K 488K 21.68
Current. Held the 50 day and started back up.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 21.05 +0.54 22.8 27.95 252K 488K 21.68
Current.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 21.78 +0.26 21.72 26.12 282K 325K 21.04
Buy Not Issued.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.49 -0.15 0 0 482K 0 0
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.46 +0.06 3 3.75 130K 900K 3.18
Current. Up again on the 50 day MVA rebound though volume fell off as it approached 3.50 again. This is the critical level.
PMTI 08/06 BO 7.19 +0.19 6.59 7.91 213K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.42 -0.04 17.75 21.35 90K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. Nice tight low volume move.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.41 +0.23 27.55 33 2.2M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.41 +0.23 26.3 30.94 2.2M 6M 26.45
Current. Held support at 26 but cannot get over the short term MVA at 26.50.
TGT 08/09 Flat 39.15 +0.24 40.12 48 3.1M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.55 -0.25 4.06 5.65 108K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 54.79 +1.34 55.75 62.45 184K 494K 51.85
Buy Not Hit. Starting up off the 18 day but needs some volume as it makes the breakout move.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 54.79 +1.34 46.85 55.25 184K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 54.79 +1.34 43.75 52 184K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 54.79 +1.34 38.6 44.38 184K 577K 53.25
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.33 +0.25 7.7 9.45 22K 200K 7.21
Current. Up off 7 on no volume.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 31.61 +1.57 28.8 34.12 1.3M 2.1M 30
Current. Bounced up off support at 30. A start, now it needs to continue the move.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 31.61 +1.57 23.45 28 1.3M 2M 30
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 37.97 -0.85 0 0 2.7M 0 0
VRSN 08/02 Dbl Top 12.88 +0.39 12.45 10.65 1.7M 4.4M 12.15
Current. Up to test the 18 day MVA at 30 but on still very low volume. Needs to fail soon.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 29.85 +0.82 19.76 20 7M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Recovering off the 50 day on volume.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.51 -0.05 16.95 20.45 90K 250K 16.14
Current.
WTW 08/09 Put 42.39 +0.1 42.24 39.68 351K 800K 43.28
Buy Not Issued. Made the tap of the 10 day MVA on the high and fell back. It looks ready.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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