|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: BDY; CHRD; COLT; CRAY; ONNN; UNTD
Wednesday night play results:
NSM: Lower volume so it could not push higher, but still very solid.
PCOR: Still in a very tight and flat handle.
GPT: Bounced up to the 50 day MVA on lower volume.
New Plays for Friday:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVNX (Avanex--$4.36; +0.36; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avnx.html
STATUS: Flat base. AVNX is moving up on swelling to strong volume the past two sessions as it works toward a breakout of its 2.5 month base. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 0 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock.
Volume: 2.143M Avg Volume: 1.492M
BUY POINT: $4.65 Volume=2M Target=$5.88 Stop=$4.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/avnx.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
ABRX (Able Labs--$23.4; -0.2; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abrx.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. ABRX is working in a 2 month base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation as it works up the 50 day MVA on the lows (21.66) with a constant high at 24 to 24.75. After a test of the 50 day last week ABRX made a strong move up to the breakout point Tuesday. It has hedged back on very low volume, showing a nice doji with tail over the 18 day MVA (23.02) Thursday. Excellent money flow and relative strength to go along with the accumulation. This higher low here looks good for a breakout. Drug stocks tend to go their own way regardless of the market.
Volume: 161.246K Avg Volume: 443.227K
BUY POINT: $24.87 Volume=600K Target=$29.88 Stop=$23.13
POSITION: QAF LE - Dec. $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/abrx.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
BLI (Big Lots--$16.69; +0.6; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bli.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. BLI is breaking out of an 8.5 month base, blasting Thursday on strong, strong volume. Accumulation in the base is very solid at 10 to 6. This stock made us some great money in 2002, and it looks ready to start back after this big consolidation of that prior move.
Volume: 1.149M Avg Volume: 526.5K
BUY POINT: $16.78 Volume=750K Target=$20 Stop=$15.61
POSITION: BLI JC - Oct. $15c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bli.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
GTRC 08/09 BO 32.24 -0.46 34.12 41 344K 725K 31.73
Buy Not Hit. Continues to fall on lower vol. Needs to pull back to the 18 day MVA on low vol. Then rise on higher vol to be a viable play.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.4 -0.57 29.06 35 570K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on lower vol. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Look for move up to buy point on higher vol before we enter the play.
TGT 08/09 Flat 37.7 -2.24 40.12 48 11M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Fell on strong vol to rest on the 50 day MVA. News on earnings contributed to the fall.
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: ANSR; ASPT; BEV; EAS; FLSH; HL; NSM; SBUX; WTW
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMZN 05/03 BO 40.3 +0.09 30.3 35.45 4.9M 12M 38.25
Current. Continue to move up but on lower vol. Continue to let the stock work for us.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.36 -0.02 3.43 4.22 83K 350K 3.19
Current. Still in good shape. Pulling back on lower vol.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 34 +0.49 33.05 40 47K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Did not enter because the vol was not there. Still a viable play if moves up on higher vol.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.08 -0.04 2.18 2.62 468K 1M 1.98
Buy Not Issued. Pulling back on lower vol. Touched the 10 day MVA
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 7.9 +0.11 8.06 10.12 352K 791K 7.45
Current. Still in good shape. Tested 7.50 intraday moving up on lower vol
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.33 -0.06 6.5 8.25 149K 500K 6.68
Current. Doji lower on slightly higher vol. Broke through 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 45.38 -0.92 0 0 310K 0 0
Pull back to the 10 day MVA on slightly higher vol
BDY 07/16 Test BO 24.94 +1.74 19.58 23.25 384K 376K 18.88
Current. Still in good shape. Recovered yesterday's pullback but on lower vol. Letting the stock work for us
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.64 +0.05 13.88 16.65 7.3M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit. Moving up on slightly lower vol. Need the stock to move up to buy point on stronger vol before we will enter the play.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.64 +0.05 13.37 16.22 7.3M 16M 12.69
Current.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.71 +0.08 5.54 6.94 1.6M 1.4M 5.24
Current. Nice move up on strong vol.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.07 -0.49 8.98 6.95 1.4M 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit. Tanking but never rallied to buy point before rolling over on strong vol. On a break below 8 is an aggressive play down to 6 on continued strong vol
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.2 +0.2 3.22 4.05 1.5M 822K 2.95
Current. Great move up on strong vol
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.29 -0.32 16.24 14.12 100K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued. Moving down on higher vol but still the vol is not there.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.05 +0.45 5.3 6.68 201K 200K 5.08
Current. Gapped higher on strong vol
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 11.98 +0.96 9.73 11.75 2.1M 1.4M 9.94
Current. Took half the gain off the table on this solid move.
DIS 08/09 Test 18 22.56 +0.06 0 0 6.3M 0 0
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38 +0.2 23.81 28.42 113K 225K 35.94
Current. Still in good shape. Bounce off 18 day MVA but on lower vol
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38 +0.2 22.75 27.35 113K 225K 35.94
Current.
DRL 08/11 Put 40.02 -0.69 43.2 40 784K 550K 44.44
Current. Gapped down on strong vol. Nice Move
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 102.7 +1.41 69.45 92 4.1M 12M 105.55
Current. Moving up on lower vol. Still in good shape.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 102.7 +1.41 62.45 92 4.1M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.26 +0.01 1.88 2.45 348K 210K 2.03
Current. Moved up on higher vol, but gave back some of its move. Touched lower intraday. Still in good shape.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.92 -0.08 15.34 18.45 64K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit. Doji down on lower vol. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Needs to move up to buy point on higher vol
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 16.18 +0.43 10.55 12.75 361K 195K 14.42
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 16.18 +0.43 9.2 10.96 361K 195K 14.42
Current. Moving up on strong vol. Nice Move
GENZ 08/07 Put 45.12 -0.22 44.05 40 2.5M 4M 46
Buy Not Issued. Moved down on lower vol. Touched 44.31 intraday. Needs to move lower to buy point on stronger vol before we enter.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 11.93 -0.14 12.14 14.45 63K 218K 11.55
Current. Slightly down on lower vol. Still in good shape.
GPT 08/13 H&S 50.88 +0.68 50.02 47.48 440K 600K 51.66
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower vol. Needs to fall to buy point on higher vol
GTRC 08/09 BO 32.24 -0.46 34.12 41 344K 725K 31.73
Buy Not Hit. Continues to fall on lower vol. Needs to pull back to the 18 day MVA on low vol. Then rise on higher vol to be a viable play.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.23 0 6.07 7.28 1.4M 1.7M 5.62
Current. Doji on lower vol. Still in great shape
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 11.94 -0.04 13.48 16.25 112K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued. Closed higher but still down on lower vol. Touched the 50 day MVA intraday.
ITRI 08/06 H&S 18.34 -0.29 19.57 17 429K 200K 20.55
Buy Not Hit. Tanking on higher vol. Needs to rally on lower vol to buy point to be a viable play.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 47.68 +2.65 45.08 54.25 3.8M 1M 43.32
Current. Great move on strong vol
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.4 -0.57 29.06 35 570K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on lower vol. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Look for move up to buy point on higher vol before we enter the play.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11.26 +0.01 10.52 12.75 21K 248K 10.14
Current. Doji higher on lower vol. Still in good shape.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 22.33 -0.17 22.25 27.95 271K 488K 21.68
Current. Doji lower on higher vol. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 22.33 -0.17 22.8 27.95 271K 488K 21.68
Current.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 21.87 -0.11 21.72 26.12 129K 325K 21.04
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on lower vol. Did not enter the play because the vol is not there. Still a viable play if vol increases.
NSM 08/13 Cup hdl 23.98 -0.1 24.75 29.68 2.7M 5.3M 22.42
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on lower vol. Still a viable play if buy point is hit on higher vol.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.98 +0.95 0 0 1.2M 0 0
Move up on strong volume.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.6 +0.16 3 3.75 351K 900K 3.18
Current. Nice moved up on higher vol.
PCOR 08/13 Cup hdl 2.19 -0.01 2.46 3.12 173K 225K 2.18
Buy Not Hit. Doji down on lower vol. Needs to break out on higher vol
PMTI 08/06 BO 6.41 -0.59 6.59 7.91 105K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Down on higher vol. Almost touched the 18 day MVA intraday. If holds at 18 day MVA may still be a good play.
PWER 08/12 Test BO 10.61 -0.34 11 13.45 469K 675K 9.91
Current. Pull back on lower vol. Still in great shape
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.43 +0.18 17.75 21.35 187K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. Move up on higher vol. Needs to continue to move up on higher vol to buy point
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.95 +0.44 27.55 33 2.3M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued. Opened on the 10 day MVA and continued to move up on higher vol. Still in good shape
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.95 +0.44 26.3 30.94 2.3M 6M 26.45
Current.
TGT 08/09 Flat 37.7 -2.24 40.12 48 11M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Fell on strong vol to rest on the 50 day MVA. News on earnings contributed to the fall.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.6 -0.1 4.06 5.65 58K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Broke through the 18 day MVA on slightly higher vol. Vol was still well below average.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 58.01 +0.4 56.12 62.88 258K 494K 53.82
Current. Doji slightly higher on lower vol. Continue letting the stock run.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 58.01 +0.4 46.85 55.25 258K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 58.01 +0.4 43.75 52 258K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 58.01 +0.4 38.6 44.38 258K 577K 53.25
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.49 +0.09 7.7 9.45 35K 200K 7.21
Current. Moves up on higher vol, but vol still below average. Still in good shape.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 33.98 +1.23 28.8 34.12 1.7M 2.1M 30
Current. Good move on strong vol
UNTD 05/29 Flat 33.98 +1.23 23.45 28 1.7M 2M 30
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 42.05 +0.39 41.72 50 1.8M 4.5M 38.82
Current. Moves up on lower, but closes lower than the open. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape
VRTS 08/19 CCall 31 +0.46 19.76 20 5.1M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Moving up on lower vol. Continue to let the stock run.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.85 +0.03 16.95 20.45 59K 250K 16.14
Current. Doji on the 10 day MVA on lower vol. Still looks good
WTW 08/09 Put 42.83 +0.05 42.24 39.68 240K 800K 43.28
Buy Not Issued. Doji up on lower vol. Will enter play when stock moves down to buy point on higher vol.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
