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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: DRL (early move down); CRAY; ONNN; KKD; AVNC; BLI
Thursday night play results:
AVNX: Nice volume move Friday despite a slow market.
ABRX: Moving toward the breakout on low volume.
BLI: Another break higher on solid volume but showed a doji.
New Plays for Monday:
Play Date: 08/16/2003
CY (Cypress Semiconductor--$14.3; -0.13; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cy.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. CY is moving thorugh a seven week pattern making higher and higher lows along the 50 day MVA (12.82) as it bangs its head against a constant top at 14.80. We really like these patterns as they build pressure from below while having that contstant top holding it back. Much as rates shot higher after the Fed lost control of them after tying to hold them lower, these stocks tend to explode higher on their breakouts. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). It is just below the breakout point, showing a doji Friday. It may come back again on one more test lower before it tries the breakout. A hold at the 18 day MVA (13.70) would be a good place to start a breakout move. Excellent relative strength, solid money flow.
Volume: 394.3K Avg Volume: 2.66M
BUY POINT: $14.88 Volume=3M Target=$17.92 Stop=$13.84
POSITION: CY LC - Dec. $15c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cy.html
Play Date: 08/16/2003
FARO (Faro Technologies--$9.47; +0.32; no options): 3-D measuring instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/faro.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. FARO exploded higher in late March and started a great 4 month rally to the upside, topping out at 10.98 in the last part of July. After the breakout and 4 runs up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA), it is testing back to the 50 day MVA (8.30). This is typical action for a strong stock: breakout, running up the short term MVA, and then testing back to the 50 day to take a breather. This is the level where the big money comes in to take positions at a better price. If they do the stock starts back up on stronger volume. Friday, in a slow, low volume market, FARO was jumping higher and past the 10 and 18 day MVA (9.30, 9.28) on very strong volume. Excellent action and we are looking to pick it up off of this nice test.
Volume: 379.5K Avg Volume: 145.099K
BUY POINT: $9.58 Volume=220K Target=$11.52 Stop=$8.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/faro.html
Play Date: 08/16/2003
MPS (Modis Professional Svc.--$8.96; -0.04; no options): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mps.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Provides staffing and office solutions for ITS, accounting, law, and other professions. As we have reported the past few weeks, the pace of temporary hiring is stronger than it was in the early stages of the 1992 recovery. MPS is showing that in its accumulation during its long 16.5 month base with a solid 17 to 12 readign (17 up weeks on rising volume to 12 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow and relative strength round out the pattern. MPS has spent the past two weeks moving laterally and slightly lower, holding the 10 day MVA (8.95) on the lows. Volume was up the last two sessions of the week when overall volume was down. Very solid pattern and in the right sector for this improving economy.
Volume: 511.8K Avg Volume: 451.239K
BUY POINT: $9.75 Volume=677K Target=$11.68 Stop=$9.07
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mps.html
Continuing that still look good:
Play Date: 07/12/2003
ASTSF (Ase Test Limited--$7.25; -0.08; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/astsf.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. After breaking past the buy point and rallying well, ASTSF is making a very orderly, low volume pullback to test the 10 day MVA (7.23), showign two tight dojis at that level to end the week. Super money flow and relative strength, ASTSF has held up very, very well in the market consolidation. We are looking at adding positions (and a good place to start new ones) as it comes off of this test on a volume surge.
Volume: 93.3K Avg Volume: 414.169K
BUY POINT: New: $7.55 (orig. $6.50) Volume=500K Target=New positions: $9.15 (orig. positions $8.25) Stop=$6.98
POSITION: QDQ KA - Nov. $5c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/astsf.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
GTRC 08/09 BO 32.03 -0.21 34.12 41 234K 725K 31.73
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday. Will watch for a bounce off the 18 day MVA on higher volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.44 +0.04 29.06 35 133K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday. Will watch for a bounce on higher volume off the 10 day MVA.
TGT 08/09 Flat 37.89 +0.19 40.12 48 3.2M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume. Will watch stock to see if it recovers from Thursday's drop for it to be a viable play.
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: ABRX; ASTSF; BEAS; BEV; CHRD; NSM
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABRX 08/14 A Wedge 24.51 +1.11 24.87 29.88 171K 600K 23.13
Buy Not Hit. Nice move up on higher volume. The volume is still below average.
AMZN 05/03 BO 40.1 -0.2 30.3 35.45 2.5M 12M 39.05
Current. Doji down on low volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
Continue to let the stock run.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.32 -0.03 3.43 4.22 17K 350K 3.19
Current. Moves slightly down on lower volume.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 34.16 +0.16 33.05 40 22K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on lower volume. We did not enter the play because the volume is not there.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.04 -0.04 2.26 2.72 166K 1M 1.98
Buy Not Issued. Moves down on lower volume. Touches the 18 day MVA intraday. Waiting for bounce with higher volume.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 7.53 -0.37 8.06 10.12 196K 791K 7.38
Current. Broke through the 10 day MVA on lower volume to touch the 18 day MVA. Still in good shape.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.25 -0.08 6.5 8.25 93K 500K 6.98
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Closed on the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 45.11 -0.27 0 0 118K 0 0
AVNX 08/14 Flat 4.71 +0.35 4.68 5.92 1.5M 2M 4.26
Current. Great move up on above average volume despite the slow market.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 24.19 -0.75 19.58 23.25 134K 376K 22.02
Current. Moves down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.58 -0.06 13.88 16.65 4.7M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit. Gaps down on low volume but closes slightly lower than Thursday. Touched both the 18 day MVA and the exponential 50 day MVA intraday.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.58 -0.06 13.37 16.22 4.7M 16M 12.69
Current.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.65 -0.06 5.54 6.94 670K 1.4M 5.38
Current. Moved slightly down on low volume. Still in good shape.
BLI 08/14 Cup hdl 16.9 +0.21 17.18 20.38 473K 750K 15.84
Current. Buy point hit. Gapped up on average volume despite a slow market, a good sign.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.25 +0.18 8.98 6.95 801K 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit. Moves up on lower volume. Waiting for another bounce with lower volume. Setting up nicely.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.17 -0.03 3.22 4.05 433K 822K 2.99
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
CMTL 08/05 Put 16.25 -0.04 16.24 14.12 54K 450K 17.56
Buy Not Issued. Moving laterally over 16, not making the fall. Dropping.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.05 0 5.3 6.68 38K 200K 5.52
Current. Gapped up on higher volume on Thursday. Held the gain today.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 12.25 +0.27 9.73 11.75 604K 1.4M 11.04
Current. Moved higher on low volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
DIS 08/09 Test 18 22.45 -0.11 0 0 3M 0 0
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38.49 +0.49 23.81 28.42 97K 225K 35.94
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Continue to let the stock work for us.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38.49 +0.49 22.75 27.35 97K 225K 35.94
Current.
DRL 08/11 Put 41.11 +1.09 43.2 40 305K 550K 44.44
Target Hit. Tank early and we took the gain. As it bounced we are glad we did.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 103.07 +0.37 69.45 92 2.4M 12M 105.55
Current. Moved up on low volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 103.07 +0.37 62.45 92 2.4M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.28 +0.02 1.88 2.45 52K 210K 2.12
Current. Moved up on low volume. Still in good shape.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.7 -0.22 15.34 18.45 78K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit. Moved down on higher volume to touch the 18 day MVA. Will wait for a bounce on higher volume.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 16.09 -0.09 10.55 12.75 104K 195K 14.92
Current. Slight move down on lower volume.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 16.09 -0.09 9.2 10.96 104K 195K 14.92
Current.
GENZ 08/07 Put 45.35 +0.23 44.05 40 797K 4M 46
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on low volume. Setting up nicely to move down on higher volume.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.05 +0.12 12.14 14.45 29K 218K 11.75
Current. Moved up on low volume. Still in good shape.
GPT 08/13 H&S 51.43 +0.55 50.02 47.48 255K 600K 51.66
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher to touch the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume.
GTRC 08/09 BO 32.03 -0.21 34.12 41 234K 725K 31.73
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday. Will watch for a bounce off the 18 day MVA on higher volume.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.25 +0.02 6.07 7.28 539K 1.7M 5.92
Current. Continues to move laterally this week holding the strong move last Friday. Continue to let the stock work for us.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 11.94 0 13.48 16.25 53K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued. Dropping.
ITRI 08/06 H&S 20 +1.66 19.57 17 637K 200K 20.55
Buy Not Hit. Up on rising volume without tanking, so dropping.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 48.9 +1.22 45.08 54.25 1.1M 1M 44.48
Current. Moved up on above average volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.44 +0.04 29.06 35 133K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday. Will watch for a bounce on higher volume off the 10 day MVA.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11.4 +0.14 10.52 12.75 15K 248K 10.52
Current. Moved up on low volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Continue to let the stock work for us.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 22.48 +0.14 22.25 27.95 57K 488K 21.68
Current. Moved up on low volume. Continue to let stock work for us.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 22.48 +0.14 22.8 27.95 57K 488K 21.67
Current.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 21.98 +0.11 21.72 26.12 131K 325K 21.04
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on lower volume. We did not enter the play because the volume was not there.
NSM 08/13 Cup hdl 24.11 +0.13 24.75 29.68 964K 5.3M 22.42
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.95 -0.03 0 0 245K 0 0
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.7 +0.1 3 3.75 237K 900K 3.18
Current. Nice move up, but on lower volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
PCOR 08/13 Cup hdl 2.2 +0.01 2.46 3.12 22K 225K 2.18
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume. Closed on the 18 day MVA. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday.
PMTI 08/06 BO 6.6 +0.19 6.59 7.91 35K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on low volume. Stock will need to recover on higher volume to become a viable play.
PWER 08/12 Test BO 10.87 +0.26 11 13.45 289K 675K 10.02
Current. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Closed up on lower volume. Holding the gain from Wednesday.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.3 -0.13 17.75 21.35 34K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. Moved down on lower volume. Will watch stock to see if bounces off the 18 day MVA on higher volume.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.89 -0.06 27.55 33 1M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued. Doji slightly down on low volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.89 -0.06 26.3 30.94 1M 6M 26.45
Current.
TGT 08/09 Flat 37.89 +0.19 40.12 48 3.2M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume. Will watch stock to see if it recovers from Thursday's drop for it to be a viable play.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.68 +0.08 4.06 5.65 67K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Bounced up from the simple 50 day MVA to close under the 10 day MVA. The volume was higher but still well below average.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 58.2 +0.19 56.12 62.88 95K 494K 54.94
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 58.2 +0.19 46.85 55.25 95K 603K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 58.2 +0.19 43.75 52 95K 603K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 58.2 +0.19 38.6 44.38 95K 577K 54.94
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.03 -0.46 7.7 9.45 36K 200K 6.96
Current. Broke through the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Still in good shape.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 34.25 +0.27 28.8 34.12 401K 2.1M 31.62
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 34.25 +0.27 23.45 28 401K 2M 31.62
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 41.82 -0.23 41.72 50 449K 4.5M 39.95
Current. Moved slightly down on low volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 31.35 +0.35 19.76 20 4.1M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.92 +0.07 16.95 20.45 29K 250K 16.39
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
WTW 08/09 Put 43.35 +0.52 42.24 39.68 109K 800K 43.28
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on lower volume. Needs to move down on higher volume before it becomes a viable play.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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