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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Friday good movers: DADE; GPRO; JCOM
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/16/2003
AMT (American Tower--$9.98; +0.05; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming the handle to a short, nice 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). This is the first real base since it started this excellent run from November. A breakout from this base puts it at another 52 week high; we really like it when stocks break past resistance as they then have some room to run for us. Solid money flow and relative strength ready for the next breakout.
Volume: 421.5K Avg Volume: 1.878M
BUY POINT: $10.42 Volume=2.8M Target=$12.55 Stop=$9.67
POSITION: AMT JB - Oct. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amt.html
Play Date: 08/16/2003
ANAD (Anadigics--$3.71; +0.03; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anad.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through an 8.5 month base, now in the fourth week of the handle, the lower volume test lower where the last sellers are 'frustrated' out of a stock: they saw it rally up to the old high but then start to fade again. The sell to get out for fear of another selloff. Once they are gone the supply is gone and demand pushes it higher to the breakout. Accumulation in the base is a solid 9 to 4, setting the foundation for a breakout. Money flow is moving up and relative strength is ready to breakout, a sign that the stock is a better performer than most of the market. At the end of the week ANAD moved up off the 50 day MVA (3.37) on some rising volume. We are just going to be patient and let it finish the handle and provide the strong volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 245.6K Avg Volume: 447.636K
BUY POINT: $4.04 Volume=625K Target=$5.05 Stop=$3.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anad.html
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 08/16/2003
COH (Coach--$54.91; +0.98; optionable): High end handbags, etc. Splits 2:1 on 10-2-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Pre-split 50 day MVA test. COH was at the 50 day MVA (51.79) when it announced its split. It has enjoyed a nice though hesitant move up since then. Last week it cleared the 18 day MVA (53.46) and then moved laterally over that level to close the week. This area provides a good launch point for the stock to begin its pre-split move. Indeed, volume was up Wednesday to average as COH was starting higher. It edged higher after a 10 day MVA test Friday, and it looks ready to make its move. Just want to see some rising volume through the buy point.
Volume: 403.7K Avg Volume: 904.789K
BUY POINT: $55.32 Volume=950K Target=$63.75 Stop=$53.34
POSITION: COH KK - Nov. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/12/2003
BHE (Benchmark Electronics--$41; -0.5; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhe.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Edged up toward the end of the week but on continued below average volume. Friday BHE gave back some of th atmove, still holding the 3 week pattern that follow son the heels of the breakout from the 6 month cup with handle base sporting outstanding 8 to 3 accumulation (8 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). It may try to test back to the 10 day MVA (40.14) before it continues the move, and that would be the better action as it could fall back and then get a running start on volume as it moves through the breakout point. Still a very nice pattern regardless.
Volume: 148.7K Avg Volume: 459.472K
BUY POINT: From here: $41.78. Test of 40: $41.12 on the way back up. Volume=550K Target=$47.25 Stop=$38.24
POSITION: BHE JH - Oct. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bhe.html
Play Date: 08/13/2003
CCMP (Cabot Microelectronics--$62.05; 0.00; optionable): Chip making chemical slurries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccmp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a breakout from a 3 month base sporting outstanding 12 to 6 accumulation (12 up weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow remains strong and relative strength is ready for the breakout as well, an indication of the stock's strength even as the rest of the mrarket struggles to hang on.
Volume: 102.2K Avg Volume: 874.318K
BUY POINT: $63.25 Volume=1.2M Target=$72.55 Stop=$59.95
POSITION: UKR JL - Oct. $60c (61 delta) or UKR JM - Oct. $65c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ccmp.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$8.26; -0.22; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong move Thursday on volume was given back Friday on no volume. Basically this just gives the stock a better runway to the breakout. It is showing very nie action in the handle of its 7.5 month base. Accumulation is excellent at 9 to 3. Huge money flow is leading higher. Ready for the move.
Volume: 31.478K Avg Volume: 194.356K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=400K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 08/11/2003
ERICY (LM Ericsson Telephone--$14.29; -0.06; optionable): Telecom equipment (phones)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ericy.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Still working in the handle of a solid 8 month cup with handle. Accumulation was a strong 8 to 3 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). It broke out in July, rallied, and is now testing back on very low, below average volume. Friday ERICY tested back to the 10 day MVA (14.17) on continued low volume, showing a nice tight doji at that level. Strong money flow and relative strength to match the accumulation.
Volume: 816.848K Avg Volume: 3.811M
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=5M Target=$17.74 Stop=$13.65
POSITION: RQC JV - Oct. $12.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ericy.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
HBIO (Harvard Bioscience--$5.11; +0.05; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hbio.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Friday HBIO was jumping ahead, hitting 5.38 on the high. It was unable to hold that move, but we were somewhat impressed with the action, so as the session started to wind down we started a position just to be ready for the coming week. HBIO jumped out of a 2.5 month ascending triangle last Tuesday, making the move on a strong shot of above average volume. Accumulation in the base was excellent, showing a solid 4 to 0 ratio (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). This is a very nice test of the breakout, tapping at the 10 day MVA (5.38) on the intraday lows and bouncing higher. Looking for more this week on rising volume.
Volume: 39.331K Avg Volume: 104.978K
BUY POINT: $5.10 (orig. 5.22) Volume=153K Target=$6.54 Stop=$4.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hbio.html
Play Date: 07/30/2003
MATK (Martek Biosciences--$47.55; +0.45; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/matk.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. This may be the week for MATK as it works through its 8 week base, making a series of higher lowas below 50. Last week it bounced up off of a test of the 50 day MVA (44.25) and then spent three sessions moving laterally over the 18 day MVA (46.58), gathering itself for the next move. Need to see a strong surge form here to start some positions and then take more when it clears 50.
Volume: 99.236K Avg Volume: 550.591K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $48.58; Breakout: $50.25 Volume=799K Target=$57.85 Stop=$46.73
POSITION: KQT LF - Dec. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/matk.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
TSYS (Telecomunications Sys.--$3.05; +0.04; no options): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsys.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Friday TSYS was moving again, up to 3.19 on the high, but it was very volatile, unable to hold onto that move heading to the close. Given that action we decided to hold off from entering positions. We thought hard about it, but decided there would be amplet time to get in on a continued move given where it was heading into the close. TSYS formed a nice 7 month saucer or shallow cup base and then broke out sharply in early July, rallying to 3.45. That base sported excellent 10 to 3 accumulation. TSYS has spent the past 4 weeks pulling back this month on below average volume. Thursday when volume exploded to a level not seen since late 2000. No news we could find to give rise to this. It has tested and looks ready to move. Super money flow and strong relative strength.
Volume: 122.6K Avg Volume: 107.047K
BUY POINT: $3.15 Volume=120K Target=$4 Stop=$2.93
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsys.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
ACV: Still researching a split date. Another low volume move up the 10 day MVA, not right at the July high at 58. Will need volume to clear that level.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings.
BBBY: New! Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings.
CLE: New! Forecast to announce a split 8-21 before the market with earnings.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings. Continues the low volume 10 day MVA ascent.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: Forecast to announce a split 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Testing back to the 18 day MVA on low volume. If it can bounce from here on volume we will be back on the play.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Doji Friday after the strong week. Nice moves.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Took a break Friday after a very strong week.
FOSL: Forecast 8-12-03 before the market opens. Nice low volume test of the 10 day MVA.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings.
HAR: Researching a date but making the move.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Still moving laterally, holding the solid gains..
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. Holding steady at the prior high just over 70.
NDN: Forecast 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. No change, still at the 50 day MVA on below average volume.
PIXR: No split with earnings. Trying to hold the fort at support at 66.
ROST: Forecast 8-20-03 during the market. Up again Friday on very low volume. Volume simply was not there last week on the move, making it hard to get in on the play with a clear sense of direction.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Still a modest move up the 10 day MVA.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/16/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$40.53; +0.05; optionable): Home furnishings. Forecast to announce a split on 9-24-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $39. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Cup. BBBY is in the process of forming a 2.5 month cup base, coming off the lows near 38 the pat two weeks. Last week it made a solid move up over some resistance at 40, then paused Friday, showing a doji at that level. Accumulation at this juncture in the base is 2 to 2, a ratio that will improve as the stock moves up toward 44 to complete the cup. From there it will most likely form a handle and then make the break higher. We like this stoke a lot, however, and we are looking to take a position as it moves up from here on a solid shot of volume. That way we get in on a solid stock a bit early, and when it makes its subsequent move we are averaging up into a winner.
Volume: 1.006M Avg Volume: 3.5M
BUY POINT: $41.88 Volume=5.2M Target=$48 Stop=$39.28
POSITION: BHQ KH - Nov. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
Play Date: 08/16/2003
CLE (Claires Stores--$30.85; -0.2; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split on 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 8-14-96 at a stock price of $30. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CLE is another one of the retailers setting up a fine pattern in preparation of a further move higher. It is just starting to form the handle to an 8 week cup base. Accumulation is positive at 2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 in the short base. We anticipate that CLE is going to work laterally this week on continued below average volume in preparation for a breakout. Strong relative strength supporting any move. We want to see CLE make the strong breakout on volume.
Volume: 145K Avg Volume: 589.079K
BUY POINT: $31.32 Volume=884K Target=$37.62 Stop=$29.45
POSITION: CLE KF - Nov. $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$62.84; -0.35; optionable): Education and training. Did not announce a split with July earnings, but is setting up well again.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Thursday APOL was moving off the 50 day MVA (61.98) on some rising though still below average volume. Friday it tested below the 50 day MVA intraday but then rallied back to hold at the short term MVA. It has held the 50 day and support at 62, moving laterally over that level for over a week. This stock can run like the wind when it starts to move, and Thursday it was showing signs of that move. Money flow is turning back up ahead of the stock, and if it can get some more volume we will be ready to move in. Again, this stock can race when it goes, and we want to be ready.
Volume: 480.822K Avg Volume: 1.994M
BUY POINT: $63.72 Volume=2M Target=$73.28 Stop=$61.75
POSITION: OAQ KL - Nov. $60c (72 delta) or OAQ KM - Nov. $65c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$63.45; -0.41; optionable): Makeup, etc. No split with earnings in July. Looking for a new date, but it looks ready.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Similar APOL, AVP was up Thursday on rising volume, starting a move off the short term MVA after a test of the 50 day MVA (62.25) the prior week. Friday it was lower, but hit the same high as Thursday (64.21). AVP is a market leader that ran well up to the July top and has spent the past 2 months working laterally on mostly lower, below average volume. Price/volume action has improved as it moves up toward resistance at 64. Money flow is excellent as AVP turns back up off the 50 day. This is a level where big money comes in to support strong stocks, and if it moves in here we will do the same.
Volume: 337.4K Avg Volume: 1.142M
BUY POINT: $64.78 Volume=1.7M Target=$74.50 Stop=$62.75
POSITION: AVP JL - Oct. $60c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$52.51; +0.19; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 at stock price of $21.84. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working through a 2.5 month flat base that is holding roughly over 50 (50 day MVA at 50.75) as it shows a series of dojis on a former support level at 52. This base shows positive 2 to 1 accumulation and follows the breakout from a 5 month cup with handle base in May. COLM is another one of the retail stocks that is forming up well for the next move. Volume has dried up to very low, below average levels this month, particularly the past week as COLM works in a very tight range. Looking for a high volume break upward this week.
Volume: 16.7K Avg Volume: 310.885K
BUY POINT: $54.12 Volume=475K Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.85
POSITION: TQQ JK - Oct. $55c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 08/12/2003
DG (Dollar General--$19.37; +0.04; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 8-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 4-25-00 at a stock price of $23. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-2-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DG continues forming the handle of its long, 13 month base. The handle is now 10 weeks long, holding over the 50 day MVA (18.19) and 19.25. Volume started higher Wednesday as DG broke over 19. It moved laterally to end the week on declining volume. Accumulation in the base is a solid 16 to 9. Money flow is excellent as is relative strength. DG looks as if it is ready to make the move.
Volume: 378.5K Avg Volume: 1.898M
BUY POINT: $19.85 Volume=2.9M Target=$23.88 Stop=$18.46
POSITION: DG KW - Nov. $17.50c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dg.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
GDW (Golden West Financial--$84.99; -0.07; optionable): Savings & Loans
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 1 split on 11-2-99 at a stock price of $114.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Looks so good, holding just over the 10 day MVA (84.57) in a very orderly and slight pullback just below the breakout point. A very nice 3 month base with volume starting to swell the past week. Excellent money flow and showing positive 4 to 2 accumulation in this 2 month base. It is getting ready to make the move.
Volume: 280.4K Avg Volume: 623.43K
BUY POINT: $85.78 Volume=923K Target=$100 Stop=$83.12
POSITION: GDW KQ - Nov. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gdw.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$86.11; +1.97; optionable): Electronic equipment. Researching he next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2000 at a price of $65. This is the first time HAR has been back at that level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. HAR has made the 50 day MVA (79.36) test and is rallying off that level on sharp volume. It broke to a new high Friday though on no volume. Given the move up last week we are looking for the stock to test back toward 85, a support level from the July high. If it holds there and starts back up on better volume that is where we enter.
Volume: 67.3K Avg Volume: 248.214K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=420K Target=$98 Stop=$81.25
POSITION: HAR JQ - Oct. $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$59.91; +0.16; optionable): Online education & training. Forecast to announce a split in September with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Breakout. After a 5 week lateral move below 58 while making higher lows, UOPX broke higher Thursday, clearing 50 on a strong, above average volume surge. Friday it took a breather, showing a doji and holding onto its gains. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout on the Thursday move. This is another stock that can fly like the wind, and though it did not announce a split in July, we are looking to enter and hold positions as long as it makes us gains while we pinpoint the next date.
Volume: 132.485K Avg Volume: 217.78K
BUY POINT: $60.28 Volume=300K Target=$72 Stop=$56.41
POSITION: UBY LL - Dec. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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