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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good moves Monday: AMZN; AVID; BEV; DKS; CY; EBAY; NSM; PWER; TSCO; UTSI; VRTS
Weekend play results:
CY: Huge breakout on volume.
FARO: Continuing the bounce on strong volume.
MPS: Volume jumped higher as MPS hled steady on the 10 day MVA in a tight range.
ASTSF: Starting off the 10 day MVA on rising though still below average volume.
New Plays for Tuesday:
Play Date: 08/18/2003
SINA (Sina.com--$31.1; +2.1; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Test the 50 day MVA. The Chinese nets made us some money through July in the big run, and we are looking at making a little more here with SINA. It is not totally out of the woods after peaking in late July. The pattern is a bit toppish with the mid-July interim top at 31.58 before the run to the July high at 38.68. It is still under accumulation, and the Monday move was on solid upside volume. On a strong move over the July interim high we will move in with some positions.
Volume: 7.071M Avg Volume: 7.094M
BUY POINT: $31.94 Volume=10M Target=$38 Stop=$29.78
POSITION: NOQ LF - Dec. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sina.html
Play Date: 08/18/2003
GEMS (Glenayre Technologies--$1.64; +0.16; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gems.html
STATUS: Double bottom. GEMS is moving through a nine week base, blasting higher Monday on the best volume in weeks, breaking over the middle 'hump' in the pattern (1.58). Accumulation is outstanding in the small base at 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow to boot, and relative strength is making a breakout move as well, a good indication of how solid the move is. This base follows the breakout from a 7 month base from December to June. Looking to take some positions on a further break higher.
Volume: 323.77K Avg Volume: 213.954K
BUY POINT: $1.74 Volume=300K Target=$2.22 Stop=$1.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gems.html
Continuing that still look good:
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ASPT (Aspect Communications--$7.99; +0.46; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aspt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ASPT has moved laterally the past 4 weeks on excellent money flow and relative strength. This move follows an explosive breakout in July. Monday ASPT tested back to 7 on the intraday low and then stormed back on a big volume jump. Looks ready to continued the breakout move.
Volume: 1.378M Avg Volume: 565.909K
BUY POINT: $8.06 Volume=791K Target=$10.12 Stop=$7.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aspt.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
MLHR (Herman Miller--$22.6; +0.62; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mlhr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. MLHR was off and running Monday on some rising, above average volume. It cleared the buy point and backed off of the high (22.89) on the close. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on the continued breakout move.
Volume: 305.699K Avg Volume: 290.045K
BUY POINT: New: $22.75 (orig. $21.72) Volume=325K Target=$27.12 Stop=$21.04
POSITION: MHQ KD - Nov. $20c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mlhr.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
AVID 08/09 Test 18 47.62 +2.51 0 0 405K 0 0
Up off the 18 day MVA on some rising though still below average volume. It has been a huge run for AVID and it needs a bit of rest, but an above average volume break higher here is worth a few positions.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.73 +0.29 29.06 35 690K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on risng volume, but still volume below average. LPNT is set up to make the move as it holds the 10 day MVA. Just need to see the break on stronger volume.
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: BEV; BEAS; MPS; PCOR; PWN
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABRX 08/14 A Wedge 23.35 -1.16 24.87 29.88 511K 600K 23.13
Buy Not Issued. Moved down to test the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday.
AMZN 05/03 BO 43.02 +2.92 30.3 35.45 11M 12M 39.05
Current. Excellent bounce off the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.2 -0.12 3.43 4.22 151K 350K 3.19
Current. Moved down to close on the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 34.24 +0.08 33.05 40 68K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on higher volume, but still well below average. Volume was not there so we did not enter the play.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.1 +0.06 2.26 2.72 325K 1M 1.98
Buy Not Issued. Doji up on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Volume is still not there.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 7.99 +0.46 8.06 10.12 1.4M 791K 7.38
Current. Opened on the 18 day MVA and had a good move up on strong volume. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.55 +0.3 6.5 8.25 222K 500K 6.98
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 47.62 +2.51 0 0 405K 0 0
AVNX 08/14 Flat 4.76 +0.05 4.68 5.92 1.4M 2M 4.26
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Letting the stock work for us.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 24.48 +0.29 19.58 23.25 224K 376K 22.02
Current. Moved up on higher volume.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.95 +0.37 13.88 16.65 6.5M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.95 +0.37 13.37 16.22 6.5M 16M 12.69
Current. Moved up on higher volume.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.89 +0.24 5.54 6.94 1.1M 1.4M 5.38
Current. Nice bounce off the 10 day MVA on higher volume.
BLI 08/14 Cup hdl 16.94 +0.04 17.18 20.38 630K 750K 15.84
Current. Closed below the opening price but up on higher volume.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.14 -0.11 8.98 6.95 1.3M 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit. Moved down on higher volume. Stock needs to rally before we enter the play.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.01 -0.16 3.22 4.05 851K 822K 2.99
Current. Moved down on higher volume to test the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.14 +0.09 5.3 6.68 96K 200K 5.52
Current. Moved up on higher volume.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 12.35 +0.1 9.73 11.75 1M 1.4M 11.04
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Let the stock work for us.
CY 08/16 A Wedge 15.92 +1.62 15.68 18.78 4.7M 3M 14.22
Current. Nice volume breakout from the ascending triangle.
DIS 08/09 Test 18 22.4 -0.05 0 0 7.2M 0 0
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 41.43 +2.94 23.81 28.42 1.1M 225K 35.94
Current. Great move up on strong volume.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 41.43 +2.94 22.75 27.35 1.1M 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 108.26 +5.19 69.45 92 7.4M 12M 105.55
Current. Excellent breakout through the simple 50 day MVA on strong volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 108.26 +5.19 62.45 92 7.4M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.27 -0.01 1.88 2.45 356K 210K 2.12
Current. Gapped down at the open but closed higher although still slightly down from the previous day. Volume was strong. Still in good shape
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 14.92 +0.22 15.34 18.45 298K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 18 day MVA on higher volume. Watching for the move up on higher volume to enter the play.
FARO 08/16 Test 50 10.36 +0.89 9.58 11.52 254K 220K 8.94
Buy Not Hit. Continued the nice volume move off the 50 day MVA.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 16.2 +0.11 10.55 12.75 195K 195K 14.92
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 16.2 +0.11 9.2 10.96 195K 195K 14.92
Current.
GENZ 08/07 Put 46.39 +1.04 44.05 40 2M 4M 46
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on higher volume, but still well below average. Needs to tank below the exponential 50 day MVA on higher volume to be a viable play.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.1 +0.05 12.14 14.45 111K 218K 11.75
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on higher volume.
GPT 08/13 H&S 51.5 +0.07 50.02 47.48 472K 600K 51.66
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher then closed on the simple 50 day MVA on higher volume.
GTRC 08/09 BO 32.43 +0.4 34.12 41 511K 725K 31.73
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on higher volume. Needs to break through the 10 day MVA on higher volume.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.07 -0.18 6.07 7.28 1.3M 1.7M 5.92
Current. Gapped down to test the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Still in good shape.
INTC 08/18 FlyPlt 26.19 +1.14 25.88 30.95 5.9M 75M 24.55
Current. Kept an eye on it and issued alert when it hit buy point.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 49.37 +0.47 45.08 54.25 1.2M 1M 44.48
Current. Continued to move higher on strong volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.73 +0.29 29.06 35 690K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on higher volume, but still volume below average.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 12.03 +0.63 10.52 12.75 123K 248K 10.52
Current. Good move up on higher volume. Letting the stock continue to work for us.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 23.85 +1.37 22.25 27.95 255K 488K 21.68
Current. Great move on higher volume.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 23.85 +1.37 22.8 27.95 255K 488K 21.67
Current.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 22.6 +0.62 21.72 26.12 305K 325K 21.04
Buy Not Issued. May live to regret this one as it moved up on average
volume.
MPS 08/16 Cup hdl 8.98 +0.02 9.75 11.68 1.1M 677K 9.07
Buy Not Hit. Moved slightly up on strong volume. Could be the bounce we are looking for off of the 10 day MVA.
NSM 08/13 Cup hdl 25.12 +1.01 24.94 29.94 3M 5.3M 23.19
Current. Excellent move up on strong volume.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.7 -0.25 0 0 852K 0 0
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.75 +0.05 3 3.75 252K 900K 3.18
Current. Continued to move up on slightly higher volume. Letting the stock work for us.
PCOR 08/13 Cup hdl 2.2 0 2.46 3.12 112K 225K 2.18
Buy Not Hit. Doji on the 18 day MVA. Still holding the 18 day MVA. Still in good pattern. Waiting for the break out move.
PMTI 08/06 BO 6.35 -0.25 6.59 7.91 170K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Broke through the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Broke through the 18 day MVA intraday.
PWER 08/12 Test BO 11.65 +0.78 11 13.45 734K 675K 10.02
Current. Good move up on strong volume.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.3 0 17.75 21.35 58K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. Doji just below the 18 day MVA on higher volume. Still nice handle formation.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 27.23 +0.34 27.55 33 1.7M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher up on higher volume, but still below average volume.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 27.23 +0.34 26.3 30.94 1.7M 6M 26.45
Current.
TGT 08/09 Flat 38.72 +0.9 40.12 48 3.4M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up on higher volume. Needs to break throught the 10 day MVA on higher volume to be a viable play.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.59 -0.09 4.06 5.65 84K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Moved down on higher volume. Continue to watch the stock.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 61.95 +3.7 56.12 62.88 526K 494K 54.94
Current. Great move up on strong volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 61.95 +3.7 46.85 55.25 526K 603K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 61.95 +3.7 43.75 52 526K 603K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 61.95 +3.7 38.6 44.38 526K 577K 54.94
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.15 +0.12 7.7 9.45 101K 200K 6.96
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Pushed through the 10 day MVA intraday.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 35.11 +0.82 28.8 34.12 1.6M 2.1M 31.62
Current. Continue to move up on higher volume. Enjoying the run.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 35.11 +0.82 23.45 28 1.6M 2M 31.62
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 43.79 +1.97 41.72 50 2.4M 4.5M 39.95
Current. Good move on higher volume.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 32.2 +0.85 19.76 20 5.5M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Great move on higher volume.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 17 +0.08 16.95 20.45 188K 250K 16.39
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA with higher volume.
WTW 08/09 Put 43.55 +0.2 42.24 39.68 406K 800K 43.28
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on higher volume. Needs to tank below the 10 day MVA on higher volume to be a viable play.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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