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Begin part 2 of 2
Full reports issue Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.
THE PLAYS
Monday good movers: AMT; CCMP; CECO; CELL; COCO; EBAY; FOSL; GPRO; IT; JCOM; JWN; RIMM; TSCO; TUES; XOMA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/18/2003
SINA (Sina.com--$31.1; +2.1; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Test the 50 day MVA. The Chinese nets made us some money through July in the big run, and we are looking at making a little more here with SINA. It is not totally out of the woods after peaking in late July. The pattern is a bit toppish with the mid-July interim top at 31.58 before the run to the July high at 38.68. It is still under accumulation, and the Monday move was on solid upside volume. On a strong move over the July interim high we will move in with some positions.
Volume: 7.071M Avg Volume: 7.094M
BUY POINT: $31.94 Volume=10M Target=$38 Stop=$29.78
POSITION: NOQ LF - Dec. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sina.html
Play Date: 08/18/2003
GS (Goldman Sachs--$88.27; +0.51; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Moving through a 2 month base showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). It is approaching the breakout point in the pattern, riding on some good money flow. Volume was back up Monday but we want to see a surge of average or better volume on the breakout move.
Volume: 2.899M Avg Volume: 4.15M
BUY POINT: $89.12 Volume=4M Target=$100 Stop=$86.38
POSITION: GS JR - Oct. $90c (42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gs.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/16/2003
ANAD (Anadigics--$3.98; +0.27; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anad.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Surging toward a breakout from its 8.5 month base, moving higher again Monday on rising, average volume. Accumulation in the base is a solid 9 to 4, setting the foundation for a breakout. Money flow is moving up and relative strength is ready to breakout, a sign that the stock is a better performer than most of the market.
Volume: 414.777K Avg Volume: 446.045K
BUY POINT: $4.04 Volume=625K Target=$5.05 Stop=$3.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anad.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$8.32; +0.06; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. EMBT is hesitating at the breakout point, stallingon Friday and fading back from that point Monday, again on very low volume. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation in the 7.5 month base with very strong money flow. Just waiting for the move.
Volume: 64.894K Avg Volume: 195.681K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=400K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$48.87; +0.17; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Testing the breakout to a 5 month base, ZMH is forming another handle with this pullback, holding the 18 day MVA (48.40) on the move back and then starting higher Monday on rising, above average volume. Accumulation is a solid 7 to 3 in the base. Excellent money flow supporting the move. Looking for a high volume move to deliver the breakout.
Volume: 2.265M Avg Volume: 2.015M
BUY POINT: $50.62 Volume=3M Target=$59 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: ZMH LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Play Date: 08/16/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$41.4; +0.87; optionable): Home furnishings. Forecast to announce a split on 9-24-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $39. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Cup. Ready to hit the buy, rising Monday but still on low volume. It is moving up in its 2.5 month cup base, coming off the lows near 38 the pat two weeks. It needs more trade as it moves through the buy point, and if we get it we will start a position and then look to add positions as it rallies higher and forms a handle to the base.
Volume: 1.959M Avg Volume: 3.434M
BUY POINT: $41.88 Volume=5.2M Target=$48 Stop=$39.28
POSITION: BHQ KH - Nov. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/16/2003
COH (Coach--$54.8; -0.11; optionable): High end handbags, etc. Splits 2:1 on 10-2-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Pre-split 50 day MVA test. Did not participate in the Monday move, but held over the short term MVA as volume started to rise. It is being pushed up against resistance at 55, and we are looking for that to break it higher on a good volume surge.
Volume: 596.2K Avg Volume: 910.636K
BUY POINT: $55.32 Volume=950K Target=$63.75 Stop=$53.34
POSITION: COH KK - Nov. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACV 08/04 Test 18 56.65 -0.11 56.45 65.85 176K 400K 52.5
Buy Not Issued.
ACV 07/19 BO 56.65 -0.11 54.8 65.85 176K 400K 55.55
Current.
AMEV 07/26 A Wedge 6.5 +0.03 5.75 6.88 8K 200K 5.89
Current.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 6.5 +0.03 4.75 6 8K 102K 5.89
Current.
AMSWA 07/29 Cup hdl 5.2 -0.22 6.04 7.55 57K 197K 5.62
Buy Not Issued. Not doing it. Dropping for now.
AMT 08/16 Cup hdl 10.71 +0.73 10.64 12.77 2.3M 2.8M 9.85
Current.
ANAD 08/16 Cup hdl 3.98 +0.27 4.04 5.05 415K 625K 3.74
Buy Not Hit. On the verge.
APOL 08/14 Test 50 65.53 +2.69 63.72 73.28 1.6M 2M 61.75
Buy Not Issued. Up off the 50 day MVA on better volume though lower
than targeted. we may regret this one as well.
AVP 08/14 Test 50 63.67 +0.22 64.78 74.5 461K 1.7M 62.75
Buy Not Hit.
AVP 03/29 BO 63.67 +0.22 57.58 65.88 461K 1.7M 62.92
Current.
BBBY 08/16 Cup 41.4 +0.87 41.88 48 1.9M 5.2M 39.28
Buy Not Hit.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 21.73 -0.1 20.9 24.95 183K 321K 21.62
Current.
BGEN 08/05 Put 38.5 +0.76 36.42 33.25 1.5M 4M 38.15
Buy Not Issued.
BHE 08/12 FlyPlat 42.43 +1.43 41.12 47.25 404K 550K 38.24
Buy Not Issued. Needs more volume.
BSX 07/31 Cup hdl 64.17 +0.92 64.81 74.55 1.7M 5M 60.55
Buy Not Issued.
CBK 07/31 Flat 41.9 +0.55 40.15 46 265K 450K 38.94
Current.
CCMP 08/13 Cup hdl 65.44 +3.39 65.5 74.88 1.2M 1.2M 62
Current.
CECO 07/31 FlyPlat 91.55 +3.35 85.72 95.25 806K 1M 83.61
Current.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 91.55 +3.35 75.74 86.55 806K 1.2M 83.61
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 91.55 +3.35 62.55 73.45 806K 1M 83.61
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 31.6 +3.15 19.25 23.25 1M 225K 24.94
Current.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.01 -0.16 3.22 4.05 851K 822K 2.99
Current.
CHS 07/23 Test BO 28.05 +0.7 27.05 31.25 640K 2.2M 26.56
Current.
CLE 08/16 Cup hdl 31.57 +0.72 31.32 37.62 381K 884K 29.45
Buy Not Issued. Not enough volume and needed more of a handle to form.
COCO 07/19 Test 50 58.99 +3.25 54.15 64.75 763K 1.2M 53.84
Current.
COH 08/16 PreSplt 54.8 -0.11 55.32 63.75 591K 950K 53.34
Buy Not Hit.
COH 07/10 BO 54.8 -0.11 55.79 65 591K 1.4M 53.34
Current.
COLM 08/14 Flat 52.95 +0.44 54.12 64.95 141K 475K 51.85
Buy Not Hit.
CPWM 07/31 Test 50 38.99 +1.97 40.06 48 331K 375K 37.94
Buy Not Hit.
DADE 07/08 Flat 27.55 +0.2 24.92 29.94 214K 435K 25.42
Current.
DCEL 08/05 Flat 7.11 +0.01 7.22 8.68 315K 726K 6.61
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 19.4 +0.03 19.85 23.88 1.2M 2.9M 18.46
Buy Not Hit.
DHR 08/07 DB hdl 76.6 +0.89 74.63 85.75 903K 1.6M 72.55
Current.
DSPG 07/19 A Wedge 26.5 +0.44 25.96 31.45 135K 536K 25.28
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 108.26 +5.19 107.55 120 7.4M 9M 104.58
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 108.26 +5.19 80.08 92 7.4M 8M 105.55
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 8.32 +0.06 8.75 10.48 64K 400K 8.14
Buy Not Hit.
ERICY 08/11 Test 18 14.87 +0.58 14.82 17.74 1.9M 5M 13.82
Current.
ETN 05/31 Cup hdl 89.93 +0.68 86 100 576K 650K 84.98
Current.
FOSL 08/09 Test BO 28.26 +1.22 27.58 32.95 397K 362K 26.25
Current.
FRNT 07/24 Cup hdl 15.68 +0.49 14.88 17.78 409K 686K 13.84
Current.
GDW 08/09 A Wedge 84.99 0 85.78 100 477K 923K 83.12
Buy Not Hit.
GNTA 08/06 H&S 13.2 +0.71 11.64 9.45 1.5M 1.1M 12.35
Buy Not Hit. Dropping.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 62.08 +2.13 41.75 48 341K 766K 54.98
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 62.08 +2.13 26.5 30.75 341K 521K 54.98
Current.
GPT 08/13 H&S 51.5 +0.07 50.02 47.48 472K 600K 51.66
Buy Not Hit.
HAR 07/31 BO 85.6 -0.51 85.25 98 250K 420K 81.25
Buy Not Issued.
HBIO 08/14 Test BO 5.1 -0.01 5.1 6.54 79K 153K 4.74
Current.
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 6.13 +0.1 5.52 7 952K 244K 5.48
Current.
IT 08/09 Cup hdl 10.52 +0.49 10.13 12.95 332K 421K 9.42
Current.
JBHT 07/26 FlyPlat 46.79 +0.45 47.74 54.94 227K 750K 44.65
Buy Not Hit.
JBLU 07/26 BO 49.03 +0.04 46.32 55.64 542K 1.5M 46.64
Current.
JCOM 08/12 PreSplt 57.21 +2.56 51.95 58 584K 1.4M 51.28
Current.
JWN 08/04 Cup hdl 23.75 +0.33 22.48 27 538K 1.4M 22.18
Current.
KSWS 07/12 Test 50 37.9 +0.6 37.85 44.95 157K 312K 36.28
Current.
KSWS 04/21 FlyPlat 37.9 +0.6 30.66 35.75 157K 304K 36.94
LAVA 08/07 DB hdl 21.89 +0.12 21.85 26.25 325K 1.2M 20.32
Current.
LIN 07/26 Saucer 25.7 +0.21 27.24 32.65 663K 942K 25.42
Buy Not Hit.
LM 07/12 Test 18 71.28 +0.62 70.88 80 287K 700K 65.92
Buy Not Issued.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 71.28 +0.62 58.5 67.78 287K 610K 68.88
Current.
MATK 07/30 A Wedge 48.15 +0.6 50.25 57.85 245K 799K 46.73
Buy Not Hit.
MMSI 08/05 Test BO 21 +0.23 20.44 24.33 244K 183K 20.04
Current.
NDN 08/02 DB hdl 34.03 +0.42 35.12 42.25 308K 800K 4.08
Buy Not Hit.
PFG 08/09 Put 32.53 +0.17 31.88 30 542K 1M 32.35
Current.
PRLS 08/11 A Wedge 3.1 -0.15 3.29 4.12 79K 110K 3.04
Buy Not Issued.
RIMM 07/31 Cup hdl 27.52 +1.55 27.52 31.25 2M 2.5M 25.55
Current. Upgraded and posted a good volume move.
RNT 08/07 A Wedge 20.23 -0.59 19.85 22.78 212K 140K 19.44
Current.
ROST 08/09 Cup 48.17 +0.75 46.58 54.45 819K 1.6M 43.32
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 27.23 +0.34 27.55 33 1.7M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 27.23 +0.34 26.3 30.94 1.7M 6M 26.45
Current.
SIE 08/12 Test BO 23.98 -0.02 24.38 29.44 254K 709K 22.67
Buy Not Issued.
SLM 06/24 Test 18 41.08 +0.23 42.88 49.25 675K 3.5M 41
Buy Not Hit.
SRA 08/04 Cup hdl 15.86 +0.03 16.74 20.12 96K 247K 15.57
Buy Not Hit.
SYK 08/03 Test BO 76.04 +0.09 76.88 88.45 392K 1.1M 75.12
Buy Not Hit.
TKLC 08/02 Test BO 15.6 +0.14 15.96 18.95 590K 1M 14.74
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 61.95 +3.7 56.12 62.88 526K 494K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 61.95 +3.7 51.25 60 526K 500K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 61.95 +3.7 46.85 55.25 526K 603K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 61.95 +3.7 43.75 52 526K 603K 54.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 61.95 +3.7 38.6 44.38 526K 577K 54.94
Current.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 2.95 -0.1 3.15 4 51K 120K 2.93
Buy Not Issued.
TTI 08/14 Test BO 35.15 +0.59 35.88 41.25 138K 119K 33.94
Buy Not Hit.
TUES 08/06 Cup hdl 31.04 +1.66 30.68 36.78 578K 309K 28.53
Current. Excellent volume breakout.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 35.11 +0.82 28.8 34.12 1.6M 2.1M 31.62
Current.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 35.11 +0.82 23.45 28 1.6M 2M 31.62
Current.
UOPX 08/14 BO 61.86 +1.95 60.28 72 260K 300K 56.41
Buy Not Issued. May regret not entering today. Volume was not at the
buy point but was moving well.
WYE 08/07 Dbl Top 43.76 +0.02 43.94 40.38 2.3M 6M 45.25
Buy Not Issued.
XOMA 07/28 Test BO 8.93 +0.61 8.35 10.24 1.1M 1.5M 7.85
Current.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 48.87 +0.17 50.62 59 2.3M 3M 47.88
Buy Not Hit.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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