|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Wednesday: ARTG; ASTSF; BLI; FLSH; GMR; HL
Tuesday night play results:
AMSC: Unable to make the move yet, falling back down to 11 on lower volume.
IUSA: Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
GTRC: Still hugging the 18 day MVA on rising though still below average volume.
New Plays for Thursday:
Play Date: 08/20/2003
NTOP (Net2phone--$5.66; +0.47; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntop.html
STATUS: Breakout. NTOP is breaking out of a 15 month cup with handle base, the last 3 months working up the 50 day MVA (4.90). Accumulation in that 3 month handle is 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is strong and relative strength is making the breakout as well, a good signal of the strength of the move. Looks ready to fly from here.
Volume: 359.816K Avg Volume: 221.681K
BUY POINT: $5.74 Volume=300K Target=$6.88 Stop=$5.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ntop.html
Play Date: 08/20/2003
QRSI (QRS Corp.--$8.14; +0.84; no options): Information delivery software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qrsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. QRSI is exploding out of a 7.5 month base, blasting off the 18 day MVA (7.03) on excellent volume. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 9 to 4. Money flow is huge and relative strength is breaking out. A strong move and we are looking to get on board as it continues its breakout run.
Volume: 451.52K Avg Volume: 122.681K
BUY POINT: $8.25 Volume=184K Target=$10.32 Stop=$7.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qrsi.html
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 08/20/2003
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$15.39; +0.68; optionable): PC netowrking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Ascending Triangle. We had kept an eye on JNPR, and as it made a low at the 50 day MVA (13.62) and started up we were watching closely. Wednesday it make a breakout move on very strong volume. With the 2 to 1 accumulation in the 10 week base, surging money flow, and a relative strength breakout we decided it was a go and issued the alert. It backed off some on the close, so it is still a buy on a further move higher.
Volume: 20.176M Avg Volume: 12.401M
BUY POINT: $15.45 Volume=15M Target=$18.68 Stop=$14.18
POSITION: JUX AC - January $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jnpr.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
PWN (Cash America--$16.95; +0.5; no options): Rent to own, pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a 4 week lateral move over 16 that caem after a strong breakout in early July, PWN started up Wednesday on a strong shot of above average volume. It showed a volume spike a week back as it continued to move laterally on lower volume. It ahs been telling us to get ready. It looks as if it is ready to make the move. We can wait for a new high, but we are also looking at aggressive positions on a strong move over 17 and then completing the buy on a move through the buy point.
Volume: 200.1K Avg Volume: 166.5K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $17.08; breakout: $17.75 Volume=240K Target=$21.35 Stop=$16.51
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pwn.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: ASPG; BEAS; CHRD
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABRX 08/14 A Wedge 22.74 -0.29 24.87 29.88 162K 600K 23.13
Buy Not Issued. Moved down on lower volume.
AMSC 08/19 Test BO 11.19 -0.58 12.06 14.48 772K 900K 10.98
Buy Not Hit. Moved down on lower volume.
AMZN 05/03 BO 43.76 +0.19 30.3 35.45 6.7M 12M 39.05
Current. Gapped down at the open to close positive on lower volume.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.13 +0.06 3.43 4.22 101K 350K 3.19
Current. Doji slightly up on lower volume. Broke through the 18 day MVA and touched 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.32 +0.16 2.26 2.72 1.2M 1M 2.05
Current. Excellent move on strong volume.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 8.12 +0.12 8.06 10.12 791K 791K 7.38
Current. Moved up on lower volume.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 8.06 +0.15 6.5 8.25 1.1M 500K 6.98
Current. Good move up on strong volume.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 49.55 +0.11 0 0 457K 0 0
AVNX 08/14 Flat 4.71 -0.15 4.68 5.92 871K 2M 4.26
Current. Moved down on lower volume.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 24.86 -0.64 19.58 23.25 135K 376K 22.02
Current. Opened higher but closed down on lower volume.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.75 +0.01 13.88 16.65 4.3M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit. Moved up to rest just under the 18 day MVA on lower volume.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.75 +0.01 13.37 16.22 4.3M 16M 12.69
Current.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 6.16 -0.01 5.54 6.94 912K 1.4M 5.38
Current. Closed higher than the open but still slightly negative on lower volume.
BLI 08/14 Cup hdl 17.52 +0.52 17.18 20.38 1.8M 750K 15.84
Current. Gapped up and continued to rise on an excellent volume surge.
BMRN 08/07 Put 8.18 +0.18 8.98 6.95 1.5M 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on higher volume. Needs to rally up on lower volume to be a viable play.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.17 +0.11 3.22 4.05 641K 822K 2.99
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on higher volume, but still below average.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.09 -0.21 5.3 6.68 52K 200K 5.52
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 12.67 -0.05 9.73 11.75 1.8M 1.4M 11.04
Current. Doji slightly down on higher volume. Touched 13.25 intraday.
CY 08/16 A Wedge 16.04 -0.06 15.68 18.78 1.8M 3M 14.22
Current. Continued to hold Monday's gain. Down slightly on lower volume.
DIS 08/09 Test 18 21.98 -0.25 0 0 7.1M 0 0
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 40.5 -0.58 23.81 28.42 353K 225K 35.94
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Touched 41.78 intraday.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 40.5 -0.58 22.75 27.35 353K 225K 35.94
Current.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 24.79 +0.51 24.18 27.48 818K 1.7M 22.08
Current. Continued the move up but on lower volume.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 110.36 +0.13 69.45 92 5.9M 12M 105.55
Current. Moved up on lower volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 110.36 +0.13 62.45 92 5.9M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.34 +0.02 1.88 2.45 494K 210K 2.12
Current. Doji up on strong volume.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 15.23 +0.01 15.34 18.45 141K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Hit. Moved up slightly on lower volume.
FARO 08/16 Test 50 10.22 -0.19 10.35 12.12 74K 220K 9.45
Current. Doji slightly down on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 17.09 +0.57 10.55 12.75 532K 195K 14.92
Current. Gapped up on higher volume. Wide swing up and down intraday.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 17.09 +0.57 9.2 10.96 532K 195K 14.92
Current.
GEMS 08/18 Dbl btm 1.68 +0.03 1.74 2.22 189K 300K 1.54
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume. Volume needs to increase before we will enter the play.
GENZ 08/07 Put 46.06 -0.15 44.05 40 1.5M 4M 46
Buy Not Issued. Pull back to rest on the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Touched the exponential 50 day MVA intraday.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.34 +0.34 12.14 14.45 251K 218K 11.75
Current. Nice move up on higher volume.
GPT 08/13 H&S 51.34 +0.2 50.02 47.48 311K 600K 51.66
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 18 day MVA on lower volume. We did not enter the play because the volume is not there.
GTRC 08/09 Test 18 32.15 -0.1 33.06 41 421K 700K 31.75
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to test the 18 day MVA on higher volume.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.63 +0.22 6.07 7.28 2.2M 1.7M 5.92
Current. Good move up on higher volume.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 26.36 -0.11 25.88 30.95 47M 75M 24.55
Current. Closed higher than the opening, but still in negative territory on lower volume.
IUSA 08/19 Flat 9.05 -0.16 9.54 11.48 147K 283K 8.86
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to rest on the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday.
JNPR 08/20 Flat 15.39 +0.68 15.45 18.68 20M 15M 14.18
Current. Entered the play. Great move on strong volume.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 48.92 -0.28 45.08 54.25 1.1M 1M 44.48
Current. Slight pull back on higher volume. Still in good shape.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.46 -0.54 29.06 35 407K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 11.91 -0.09 10.52 12.75 29K 248K 10.52
Current. Doji slightly down on lower volume.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 23.92 -0.08 22.25 27.95 316K 488K 21.68
Current. Gapped down at the open to close higher but still in negative territory on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 23.92 -0.08 22.8 27.95 316K 488K 21.67
Current.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 22.92 +0.1 22.95 27.42 127K 325K 21.69
Current. Doji up on lower volume.
MPS 08/16 Cup hdl 9.07 -0.01 9.75 11.68 473K 677K 9.07
Buy Not Hit. Doji slightly down on lower volume. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday. Looking for the bounce on higher volume before enter the play.
NSM 08/13 Cup hdl 26.42 -0.31 24.94 29.94 3.1M 5.3M 23.19
Current. Gapped down to close higher but still negative for the day on lower volume. Moved up to yesterday's close intraday.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.76 -0.04 0 0 312K 0 0
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.72 +0.02 3 3.75 165K 900K 3.18
Current. Gapped down at the open to close positive on lower volume. Needs stronger volume to enter the play.
PCOR 08/13 Cup hdl 2.25 +0.03 2.46 3.12 153K 225K 2.18
Buy Not Hit. Move up on higher volume. Needs stronger volume before we will enter the play.
PMTI 08/06 BO 6.43 +0.26 6.59 7.91 93K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on higher volume. Needs to have stronger volume to enter the play.
PWER 08/12 Test BO 11.66 -0.09 11 13.45 496K 675K 10.02
Current. Closed higher than the open, but still down for the day on lower volume.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.95 +0.5 17.75 21.35 200K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 27.13 +0.1 27.55 33 1.8M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on slightly lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 27.13 +0.1 26.3 30.94 1.8M 6M 26.45
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 33.27 +1.79 32.2 38.25 11M 10M 30.75
Current. Entered the play. Gapped down at the open, surged through the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
TGT 08/09 Flat 38.8 -0.09 40.12 48 2.7M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to doji on the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Touched 39.35 intraday.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.58 +0.03 4.06 5.65 100K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the exponential 50 day MVA on higher volume, but still well below the average.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 64.59 -0.01 56.12 62.88 808K 494K 54.94
Target Hit. Took part of the gain (166%) on the options.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 64.59 -0.01 46.85 55.25 808K 603K 54.94
Target Hit. Took the remaining option gain (245%) while letting
the stock run.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 64.59 -0.01 43.75 52 808K 603K 54.94
Target Hit. Took the rest of the option gain for a 300% gain.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 64.59 -0.01 38.6 44.38 808K 577K 54.94
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.53 +0.03 7.7 9.45 28K 200K 6.96
Current. Moved up on low volume. Touched the 10 day MVA and the buy point but did not enter the play because the volume was not there.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 35.35 -0.8 28.8 34.12 985K 2.1M 31.62
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 35.35 -0.8 23.45 28 985K 2M 31.62
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 43.19 -0.65 41.72 50 2.1M 4.5M 39.95
Current. Moved down on higher volume, but still well below average. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 33.32 +0.21 19.76 20 6.5M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Move up on lower volume. Letting the stock work for us.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.84 -0.2 16.95 20.45 285K 250K 16.39
Current. Pulled back to rest on the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Broke through the 10 day MVA intraday.
WTW 08/09 Put 43.95 +0.44 42.24 39.68 146K 800K 43.28
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on lower volume. Needs to pull back on higher volume before it will be a viable play.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|