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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Thursday good movers: ADI; ANAD; ASPT; CDIC; LF; MKSI; MXIM; MYL; ONNN; QRSI; RIMM; SNWL
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/21/2003
HDTV (Spatialight--$3.75; +0.35; no options): Microdisplays for high res imaging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdtv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HDTV is making the breakout move from a 7 month base sporting excellent 10 to 4 accumulation (10 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). After a nice low volume pullback to form the handle, HDTV shot higher Thursday on a massive volume surge. Excellent money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 380.436K Avg Volume: 77.818K
BUY POINT: $3.88 Volume=125K Target=$4.85 Stop=$3.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hdtv.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
PFSW (PFSweb--$1.6; +0.18; no options): Outsourcing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfsw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PFSW has made a series of steps up the short term MVA and has pulled back to test the 10 day MVA (1.42) and tehn shot back up Thursday on rising volume. This is a momentum play with strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 396.994K Avg Volume: 152.318K
BUY POINT: $1.68 Volume=228K Target=$2.25 Stop=$1.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pfsw.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$38.64; 0; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. We have been watching QCOM form up for awhile now as it tries to work back to the December high at 42. It tried a breakout in July but then fell back to form the current 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. The past two weeks it has rallied from 35 to 39 and then pulled back to test the 10 day MVA (38.01) the past three sessions, forming a short handle. It may take another session or two to snug up to the 10 day MVA more on the close, but it looks ready to try a breakout in the near future.
Volume: 8.504M Avg Volume: 25.921M
BUY POINT: $39.58 Volume=12M Target=$47.55 Stop=$37.58
POSITION: AAW AH - Jan. $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qcom.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$4.21; +0.3; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout test. SPIL is rebounding from a very nice, orderly breakout test. It formed a 17 month base and blasted higher just two weeks back. It rallied to 4.20 and then made the current pullback 5 sessions on mostly lower volume. It tapped the 18 day MVA (3.85) on the low of the pullback and then jumped higher Thursday on a big jump in above average volume. Great money flow and relative strength is ready for the breakout.
Volume: 1.279M Avg Volume: 602.363K
BUY POINT: $4.33 Volume=904K Target=$5.41 Stop=$3.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spil.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
TXN (Texas Instruments--$22.15; +1.35; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. TXN is making the breakout move from a nice 12 week base sporting solid 5 to 1 accumulation, moving through the breakout point Thursday on a very nice volume surge. Relative strength brokeout along with the stock price, a good sign of a solid breakout. Ready to pick up positions as it continues its breakout move.
Volume: 18.963M Avg Volume: 13.158M
BUY POINT: $22.28 Volume=15M Target=$26.72 Stop=$20.32
POSITION: TXN AT - Jan. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/txn.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Still look good: EMBT; MWD; CASY; MIPS; ZMH
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADI 08/04 Cup 40.5 +1.66 40.43 47.65 4.6M 5M 37.89
Current. Kept an eye on it, and when it made the high volume
breakout we issued the alert.
AMEV 07/26 A Wedge 6.89 +0.11 5.75 6.88 55K 200K 5.89
Current. Continue to move up on higher volume.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 6.89 +0.11 4.75 6 55K 102K 5.89
Current.
AMSC 08/19 Test BO 11.45 +0.26 12.06 14.48 522K 900K 10.98
Buy Not Hit. Tight doji that held over the gap up point as volume held off. Setting up for next move.
AMT 08/16 Cup hdl 10.82 +0.12 10.64 12.77 1.5M 2.8M 9.85
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on higher volume.
ANAD 08/16 Cup hdl 4.39 +0.07 4.27 5.32 505K 625K 3.88
Current. Gapped up at the open on higher volume. Gave some of the gain back but still closed up for the day.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.18 +0.05 3.43 4.22 63K 350K 3.19
Current. Moved up to close just below the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.37 +0.05 2.26 2.72 1.2M 1M 2.05
Current. Continue the rally but then gave back most of the gain on continued strong volume. Still in good shape.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 8.71 +0.59 8.06 10.12 1.6M 791K 7.38
Current. Great move on strong volume.
AVNX 08/14 Flat 4.89 +0.18 4.68 5.92 651K 2M 4.26
Current. Moved up on higher volume.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 25.11 +0.25 19.58 23.25 152K 376K 22.02
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on higher volume.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 21.59 -0.33 20.9 24.95 98K 321K 21.62
Current. Moved down on higher volume but still well below average. Still holding the pattern.
BHE 08/12 FlyPlat 43.5 +0.7 42.95 49 232K 550K 39.94
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
BMRN 08/07 Put 9 +0.82 8.98 6.95 1.3M 1.3M 9.75
Buy Not Hit. Rallied up on lower volume, but still above average. Will drop this stock because it is showing strength.
CASY 08/19 DB hdl 15.2 +0.06 15.57 18.75 124K 218K 14.89
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume. Volume will need to increase to enter the play.
CB 08/09 Cup hdl 68.85 +0.88 66.06 75.97 1.6M 2.7M 63.04
Buy Not Issued. This stock made one of those low volume ascents that makes it impossible to get into without associated risks. Will drop for now and keep eye on it until it sets up again.
CCMP 08/13 Cup hdl 65.99 -0.55 65.5 74.88 786K 1.2M 62
Current. Gapped down at the open but closed higher but still slightly down. Volume was lower. Still in good shape.
CDIC 08/20 Cup hdl 4.58 +0.38 4.55 5.55 1.6M 271K 4.02
Current. Great move up on strong volume.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 31.5 +0.06 19.25 23.25 285K 225K 24.94
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Still held the gap up point. Still in good shape.
CHS 07/23 Test BO 28.27 -0.03 27.05 31.25 567K 2.2M 26.56
Current. Moved slightly down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.13 +0.04 5.3 6.68 45K 200K 5.52
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower volume. In good shape.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 12.33 -0.34 9.73 11.75 1.2M 1.4M 11.04
Current. Gapped up at the open but lost its gain to close down for the day on lower volume. Still in good shape.
CSC 08/04 DB hdl 43.46 +0.56 43.42 48.45 1.4M 2.4M 40.92
Current. Gapped up at the open on higher volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 37.26 -3.24 23.81 28.42 1.8M 225K 35.94
Current. Gapped down to hold at the exponential 50 day MVA. The stock had run up in anticipation of earnings. Big money came in when stock held at the 50 day MVA. Still in good shape.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 37.26 -3.24 22.75 27.35 1.8M 225K 35.94
Current.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 25.13 +0.34 24.18 27.48 886K 1.7M 22.08
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 8.47 +0.07 8.75 10.48 97K 400K 8.14
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday.
ERICY 08/11 Test 18 15.56 +0.41 14.82 17.74 2.4M 5M 13.82
Current. Moved up on slightly lower volume. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday. Letting the stock work for us.
FARO 08/16 Test 50 10.3 +0.08 10.35 12.12 61K 220K 9.45
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave back some of the gain to still close up for the day. Volume was lower. Tapped the 10 day MVA intraday. Continue to let stock work for us.
FFIV 08/18 Flat 19.61 +0.07 19.58 23.48 716K 745K 18.15
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Wide swings up and down intraday to close near the middle.
FINL 08/16 Test BO 25.04 -0.94 26.25 31.54 848K 625K 24.38
Buy Not Issued. Fell back to hold at the 10 day MVA on strong volume. Big money came in to hold the stock at the 10 day MVA.Still in good shape.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 17.19 +0.1 10.55 12.75 238K 195K 14.92
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 17.19 +0.1 9.2 10.96 238K 195K 14.92
Current.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 62.09 -0.81 41.75 48 1M 766K 54.98
Current. Gapped down at the open but moved up closed higher but still slightly down for the day. Touched through the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 62.09 -0.81 26.5 30.75 1M 521K 54.98
Current.
HBIO 08/14 Test BO 5.05 -0.18 5.1 6.54 73K 153K 4.74
Current. Moved down but held at the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Still in good shape.
HYC 08/20 Flat 4.85 -0.13 5.21 6.55 169K 225K 4.72
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on lower volume. Held the gain from Friday. Still in good shape.
IMA 07/28 A Wedge 20.56 +0.36 21.42 25.72 47K 115K 20.38
Buy Not Hit. Bounce off the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to increase volume before we will enter the play.
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 6.25 -0.05 5.52 7 307K 244K 5.48
Current. Slight pull back on lower volume.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 26.39 +0.03 25.88 30.95 66M 75M 24.55
Current. Gapped up at the open to give back most of the gain on higher volume. Still in good shape.
JNPR 08/20 Flat 15.6 +0.21 15.45 18.68 14M 15M 14.18
Current. Continue to move up but on lower volume.
LAVA 08/07 DB hdl 21.27 -0.23 21.85 26.25 468K 1.2M 20.32
Current. Pulled back to hold at the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday.
LF 08/20 Cup hdl 35.3 +1.29 35.34 42 1.2M 845K 32.45
Current. Entered the play. Gapped up to make a great move on excellent volume.
LFG 08/13 H&S 47.14 +0.51 45.48 42 115K 200K 46.74
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on lower volume. We have not entered the play because the stock is showing signs of strength. We will drop the stock for now and continue to watch.
LLTC 07/23 Rv H&S 39.9 +0.55 37.35 44.85 4.8M 9M 36.22
Current. Gapped up on higher volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 71.85 +1.15 58.5 67.78 471K 610K 68.88
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 12.18 +0.27 10.52 12.75 70K 248K 10.52
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on higher volume.
MIPS 08/13 Cup hdl 3.55 -0.06 3.69 4.65 72K 275K 3.28
Buy Not Hit. Moved down on lower volume. Wide swings up and down intraday to close in the middle. Still in good shape.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 24.77 +0.85 22.25 27.95 305K 488K 21.68
Current.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 24.77 +0.85 22.8 27.95 305K 488K 21.67
Current. Nice move up on slightly lower volume.
MMSI 08/05 Test BO 21.07 -0.12 20.44 24.33 68K 183K 20.04
Current. Slight pull back on low volume.
MRBA 08/14 Cup hdl 3.75 -0.19 3.85 4.85 123K 215K 3.54
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open to give back all of the gain and then some on lower volume. Held Tuesday's gap up.
MRVL 08/02 Cup hdl 38.36 -0.03 38.5 46 6.1M 4.9M 36.12
Current. Gapped slightly up to give back the gain and then a little bit more on higher volume. Stock is still in good shape.
MWD 08/12 A Wedge 49.28 +0.21 49.54 55 3.8M 5.8M 47.28
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on higher volume. Gapped up to give back some of the gain, but still closed up for the day. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
MXIM 08/18 Rv H&S 43.65 +1.17 42.6 50 6.8M 9M 39.66
Current. Excellent move up on higher volume. Letting the stock work for us.
MYL 08/19 Rv H&S 37.45 +1.5 36.71 43.74 2.2M 1.5M 34.69
Current. Excellent move up on strong volume.
NENG 08/04 Test BO 5.65 -0.08 5.12 6.35 1.3M 232K 4.66
Current. Gapped up at the open to close slightly down for the day. on higher volume. Still in good shape.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 4.15 +0.43 3 3.75 762K 900K 3.18
Current. Break out off the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
PFG 08/09 Put 31.77 -0.14 31.88 30 958K 1M 32.35
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Giving the stock chance to continue to fall.
PMTI 08/06 BO 6.68 +0.25 6.59 7.91 86K 200K 5.96
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on lower volume. Did not enter the play because the volume was not there. Will wait to see if stock comes back down to test so that we can enter the play.
QRSI 08/20 Cup hdl 8.63 +0.48 8.6 10.72 516K 184K 7.88
Current. Entered the play. Excellent move up on strong volume.
RIMM 07/31 Cup hdl 29.53 +1.89 27.52 31.25 2.5M 2.5M 25.55
Current. Great move up on strong volume.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 33.11 -0.16 32.2 38.25 9.7M 10M 30.75
Current. Closed slightly down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
SNIC 08/11 Test BO 12.48 +0.7 12.15 14.55 1.1M 900K 11.34
Current. Gapped up but gave back some to hold Wednesday's gain. Volume was lower. Stock is in good shape.
SNWL 08/19 Test 50 6.2 +0.26 5.85 7.12 1.4M 800K 5.28
Current. Nice move up on good volume.
SRA 08/04 Cup hdl 15.39 -0.09 16.74 20.12 127K 247K 15.57
Buy Not Hit. Held above the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume. Tested the exponential 50 day MVA intraday. Will see if stock holds here and then breaks out on higher volume.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.65 +0.07 4.06 5.65 59K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume to close just below the 18 day MVA. Stock needs to rise on higher volume before we will enter the play.
TKLC 08/02 Test BO 15.82 +0.5 15.96 18.95 283K 1M 14.74
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Still in good shape.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 64.77 +0.18 46.85 55.25 302K 603K 54.94
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 64.77 +0.18 43.75 52 302K 603K 54.94
Current.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 2.92 +0.01 3.15 4 55K 120K 2.93
Buy Not Issued. Tight doji below the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to move up on higher volume before this will be a viable play.
TUES 08/06 Cup hdl 33.45 +0.09 30.68 36.78 458K 309K 28.53
Current. Moved up slightly on strong volume. Letting the stock work for us.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 33.28 -0.04 19.76 20 6.5M 8.5M 29.06
Current. Slight pull back on slightly higher volume, but still well below average. Still in good shape.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.35 -0.5 16.95 20.45 271K 250K 16.39
Current. Gapped down at the open but closed higher, but still down for the day on lower volume. Still in good shape.
XICO 07/02 A Wedge 9.71 -0.02 7.25 8.65 42K 172K 8.59
Current.
XOMA 07/28 Test BO 9.82 +0.15 8.35 10.24 1.9M 1.5M 7.85
Current. Slight pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 49.07 +0.8 50.62 59 5.2M 3M 47.88
Buy Not Hit. Nice move up from the 18 day MVA on strong volume. If action continues looking to enter the play at the buy point.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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