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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Thursday good movers: ANAD; BSX; CHIR; CHRD; EBAY; ETN; GDW; JBLU; PIXR; RIMM; SNWL; UNTD
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/21/2003
HDTV (Spatialight--$3.75; +0.35; no options): Microdisplays for high res imaging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdtv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HDTV is making the breakout move from a 7 month base sporting excellent 10 to 4 accumulation (10 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). After a nice low volume pullback to form the handle, HDTV shot higher Thursday on a massive volume surge. Excellent money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 380.436K Avg Volume: 77.818K
BUY POINT: $3.88 Volume=125K Target=$4.85 Stop=$3.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdtv.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
LPSN (Liveperson--$3.1; -0.1; no options): Customer service solutions for online companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lpsn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. LPSN exploded higher in late May , formed another base, and is now running up the short term MVA. It came back to test the 18 day MVA (2.87) last week on low, below average volume, and then jumped higher Tuesday on a sharp volume jump. After that move it is testing back the past two days on lower volume, showing a tight doji Thursday that tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (3.02). Strong money flow and a relative strenght breakout on the Tuesday move. Solid action, and the $3 level also I ssupport from the late July and early August top. Looking to move in as it comes up off the test on some rising volume.
Volume: 180.336K Avg Volume: 390.5K
BUY POINT: $3.22 Volume=425K Target=$4.05 Stop=$2.99
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lpsn.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$38.64; 0; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. We have been watching QCOM form up for awhile now as it tries to work back to the December high at 42. It tried a breakout in July but then fell back to form the current 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. The past two weeks it has rallied from 35 to 39 and then pulled back to test the 10 day MVA (38.01) the past three sessions, forming a short handle. It may take another session or two to snug up to the 10 day MVA more on the close, but it looks ready to try a breakout in the near future.
Volume: 8.504M Avg Volume: 25.921M
BUY POINT: $39.58 Volume=12M Target=$47.55 Stop=$37.58
POSITION: AAW AH - Jan. $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
TXN (Texas Instruments--$22.15; +1.35; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. TXN is making the breakout move from a nice 12 week base sporting solid 5 to 1 accumulation, moving through the breakout point Thursday on a very nice volume surge. Relative strength brokeout along with the stock price, a good sign of a solid breakout. Ready to pick up positions as it continues its breakout move.
Volume: 18.963M Avg Volume: 13.158M
BUY POINT: $22.28 Volume=15M Target=$26.72 Stop=$20.32
POSITION: TXN AT - Jan. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/txn.html
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 08/21/2003
SNPS (Synopsis--$68.87; +0.68; optionable): Technical software. Splits 2:1 on 9-4-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SNPS has been a market leader, and we missed a recent opportunity to get into it when it tested the 50 day MVA (62.37) in late July and early August. It rallied well off of that level, and when earnings and the split were announced Wednesday it was down but then recovered. Thursday it gapped lower but then recovered, basically running in place along with much of the market. We are going to watch for it to get some traction and continue the move higher and play some of this positive momentum from the split announcement and the earnings.
Volume: 4.069M Avg Volume: 1.616M
BUY POINT: $69.06 Volume=2.5M Target=$77.75 Stop=$65.12
POSITION: YPQ LN - Dec. $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snps.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$8.47; +0.07; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Straining right at the breakout point, EMBT is moving laterally just bleow 8.50 on below average volume. Thursday it tested the 10 day MVA on the low (8.17) and rebounded. It may make another test of that level, but we will just be patient and let it make the move. Accumulation is excellent at 9 to 3. oney flow is leading higher.
Volume: 97.795K Avg Volume: 196.636K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=400K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$30.65; -0.95; no options): Wireless communications (Russia)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. GLDN was shooting higher Tuesday, blasting out of a short 6 week flat base. It has pulled back toward support at 30 (the 10 day MVA is at 29.28) on lower though still strong volume. It may try to test the 10 day, but 30 looks to be solid support. We want to pick it up off another test toward 30 and a solid move back up on continued strong volume.
Volume: 427.563K Avg Volume: 146.727K
BUY POINT: New: Test 30, then $30.45 (orig. $30.40) Volume=200K Target=$36.48 Stop=$28.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gldn.html
Play Date: 08/18/2003
GS (Goldman Sachs--$88.1; +0.4; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. GS is working on very low volume, holding over the 10 day MVA (87.53) and showing a doji Thursday. Money flow is moving higher even as GS moves laterally. It is a lazy move, very good for a handle. Looking for a strong move higher on volume.
Volume: 2.17M Avg Volume: 4.076M
BUY POINT: $89.12 Volume=4M Target=$100 Stop=$86.38
POSITION: GS JR - Oct. $90c (42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gs.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$38.36; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductor integrrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MRVL beat the street after hours with a 61% sales increase. It was up sharply and it should make the breakout from the pattern tomorrow. Solid pattern.
Volume: 6.454M Avg Volume: 3.309M
BUY POINT: $38.5 Volume=4.9M Target=$46 Stop=$36.12
POSITION: UVM KG - Nov. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$15.82; +0.5; optionable): Telecom proceessing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TKLC jumped up last week on a good volume surge and is moving laterally below 16 on below average volume. It is building a good lateral move with solid money flow and relative strength edging toward a breakout as well. Looking to move in on the next strong volume surge as it moves through 16.
Volume: 288.352K Avg Volume: 687.727K
BUY POINT: New: $16.22 (orig. $15.96) Volume=1M Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.74
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tklc.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$49.07; +0.8; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has jumped up the past two sessions as ZMH tested the 18 day MVA (48.45) and started higher Thursday. Very solid 5 month base with strong 7 to 3 accumulation. Excellent money flow supporting the base.
Volume: 5.552M Avg Volume: 2.088M
BUY POINT: $50.62 Volume=3M Target=$59 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: ZMH LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Many of our plays have been running well, and we are letting them work for us and set up the next entry point. There are still some stocks in good position if they make the next move while we wait for the other plays to set up the next move. Not a bad situation to be in.
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
ACV: Still researching a split date. Still at the 10 day MVA on low volume. Needs to break 57 on volume.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Down to the 50 day MVA. Will let it test there and see if it can rally if big money comes in.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings. Not getting the volume on the move up. May have to let it rally and then form the handle.
CLE: Forecast to announce a split 8-21 before the market with earnings. No split announcement but exploded higher with the earnings.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Getting a bit volatile, testing the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounding.
CPWM: No split announced 8-21-03, but a very nice handle forming.
DG: Forecast to announce a split on 8-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Nice move Tuesday and letting it work higher for us.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Tried the next move Thursday on huge volume but fell back. Still looks solid.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. And up again, this time with some volume.
FOSL: No split announced 8-12-03 but moving well. Nice test of the 10 day MVA in progress. Just letting current positions work for us.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings. Finally got some volume on a nice breakout.
HAR: Researching a date but making the move. Not getting the volume as it slowly works higher.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. JBLU keeps on flying higher.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. Starting to get the volume on the move.
NDN: Forecast 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03. Edging up to the breakout point but no volume and a doji. May need another test.
PIXR: No split with earnings. Exploded higher in a great move.
ROST: No split announced but making a better move. Getting some volume finally on a move off the 10 day MVA.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Still moving laterally at the 18 day MVA as volume edges higher.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings. Still trying to add onto the big move higher.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$65.74; +0.25; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 9-22-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Flat. APOL is working laterally between 61.25 and 66, moving on mostly lower volume the past 7 weeks. It blasted higher early this week on stronger volume but ran out of gas the past tow days. It was ready to run again Thursday but fell back from the high at 67.28. This stock can fly, so we are looking for another break higher on volume to move into more positions.
Volume: 1.26M Avg Volume: 1.947M
BUY POINT: New: $66.45 (orig. $65.88) Volume=2M Target=$75.45 Stop=$63.58
POSITION: OAQ KL - Nov. $60c (72 delta) or OAQ KM - Nov. $65c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$58.2; +0.03; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 8-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Test breakout. A very nice breakout test is in progress. COCO blasted higher Monday on strong volume and is now sliding back orderly to test that move. Thursday it showed a very tight doji on very low volume. This is just the kind of test we were looking for to get in on this strong stock that drifted higher on us on low volume and then made the big move Monday.
Volume: 276.152K Avg Volume: 666.227K
BUY POINT: New: $58.78 (orig. $54.15) Volume=1.2M Target=$69.75 Stop=$53.84
POSITION: UCS KJ - Nov. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$35.39; +0.49; optionable): Discount variety retail. No split announced with the 8/13 board meeting so looking to 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 stock split on 3-12-02 at a stock price of $34.76. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Flat base. NDN is trying to make a breakout move from the 10 week flat base that formed on the heels of the breakout from the earlier 13 month double bottom base. Tuesday NDN was up on some stronger volume, but then it started to move laterally below 35.50. Did not give us the strong volume we were looking for on the first try, so we are looking for more strength on this move.
Volume: 285.8K Avg Volume: 521.863K
BUY POINT: New: $35.88 (orig. $35.12) Volume=800K Target=$42.25 Stop=$4.08
POSITION: NDN LG - Dec. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndn.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/18/2003
RARE (Rare Hospitality--$37.5; -0.88; optionable): Restaurants. Splits 3:2 on 9-3-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
STATUS: Breakout. RARE was up sharply and on good volume Wednesday. RARE then was downgraded Thursday morning by Wachovia and it had a rougher session, giving back some of the gain but on lower volume and it managed to recoup some of the losses on the close. Looks as if this will provide another entry point for the play. After a quick 50 day MVA test (33.59) two weeks back, RARE resumed its otherwise nice flat 6 week consolidation. It looks as if the 50 day MVA test shook out the last sellers, at least until this downgrade. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Accumulation in the short lateral base is a solid 3 to 1.
Volume: 421.154K Avg Volume: 270.545K
BUY POINT: New: $37.88 (orig. $36.82) Volume=300K Target=$42.25 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: QRH KG - Nov. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rare.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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