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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
8-25-03
Existing home sales, July (10:00): 5.90M expected, 5.83M June.
8-26-03
Durable goods orders, July (8:30): 0.9% expected, 2.3% June.
Consumer confidence, August (10:00): 79.7 expected, 76.6 July.
New homes sales, July (10:00): 1.14M expected, 1.16M June.
8-28-03
Q2 GDP (8:30): 2.9% expected, 2.4% previously reported.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 391K expected, 386K prior.
8-29-03
Personal income, July (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% June.
Personal spending, July (8:30): 0.8% expected, 0.3% June.
Michigan sentiment revised, August (9:45): 90.2 expected, 90.2 first reported.
Chicago PMI, August (10:00): 55.8 expected, 55.9 prior.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: ADI; CHRD; PMTI; JWN
Thursday night play results:
DCEL: Edged back to the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
QCOM: Strong volume and surged higher, but as with most stocks, could not make it stick.
SPIL: Gapped higher and volume was good, but gave the move back. Still in good shape.
New Plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
INFA (Informatica--$8.36; -0.24; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infa.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. INFA exploded out of a 7.5 month flat base on Thursday, moving on very strong volume. After such a strong move a stock typically tests back quickly before starting to move back up again. Friday INFA was falling back to make that test on some lower though still above average volume. We will let it come back to test support at 8 and then rebound. That is when we move in. Accumulation in the base is solid at 6 to 3 (6 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). The key on breakout tests is to see the lower volume on the pullback and then expanding volume on the way back up.
Volume: 1.623M Avg Volume: 765.211K
BUY POINT: Test $8 and then rebound through $8.22. Volume=1.1M Target=$9.95 Stop=$7.92
POSITION: UYF LU - Dec. $7.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/infa.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
PTEC (Phoenix Technologies--$6.74; +0.29; no options): Applicatoin software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday PTEC was up on stronger, average volume trying to make the breakout from its 7.5 month base. PTEC rallied in mid-July, trying to break out but fell back to the 200 day MVA right at 5.50. It has since managed to rebound, forming another handle that is basically a small cup with handle pattern itself. Accumulation in the base is a solid 6 to 3. This base is the first one off the bottom of the long decline; a breakout from here on strong volume is a great place to enter
Volume: 137.639K Avg Volume: 132.148K
BUY POINT: $7.01 Volume=195K Target=$8.45 Stop=$6.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ptec.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
C (Citigroup--$43.1; -0.81; optionable): Major bank, financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Almost hate to bet against C in a recoverying economy, but it has formed a 2 month head and shoulders pattern and broke lower Friday on rising, above average volume. The move took it through the 50 day MVA (43.95) on that strong, above average trade. On such a strong break we look for a stock to rebound to test the move. When it fails that is when we move in and take positions. The price of the options and the delta don't require a huge downside move for us to book a nice gain.
Volume: 15.028M Avg Volume: 13.397M
BUY POINT: Bounce up to test 44, then $43.74 on the move back down. Volume=13M Target=$41.25 Stop=$44.42
POSITION: C VI - Oct. $45c (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/c.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
DRL (Doral Financial--$41.15; -0.57; optionable): Mortgage investment services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drl.html
STATUS: Put. Looking at DRL again after it made us a nice gain earlier in the month. DRL is in a continuing downtrend now, having bounced up off of 40 on its last move lower and coming back up to test the 18 day MVA (42.34) on a lower volume bounce. That is the usual resistance point as a stock continues its downtrend. Thursday DRL showed a doji at the 18 day on strong volume and Friday was falling again. Looking to move in here for a run down to 38.
Volume: 295.4K Avg Volume: 506.144K
BUY POINT: $41.03 Volume=500K Target=$38 Stop=$42.38
POSITION: DRL VI - Oct. $45p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/drl.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
DIS 08/09 Test 50 21.41 -0.19 22.06 26.48 9.6M 9M 21.12
Testing the 50 day MVA on above average volume. This is where we see if the buyers come back in. If they do we look for a move over the short term MVA on strong volume.
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Still looking good: ANSR; CRAY looks ready to make the next bounce higher; GEMS is making a nice 10 day MVA test.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABRX 08/14 A Wedge 22.87 -0.54 24.87 29.88 189K 600K 23.13
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up to close below the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Stock showing signs of volatility will need to recover and move up on higher volume before it will be a viable play.
ADI 08/04 Cup 41.51 +1.01 40.43 47.65 6.9M 5M 39.98
Current. Gapped up at the open but lost some of the gain to close with still a good move. Movement was with strong volume.
AMSC 08/19 Test BO 11.6 +0.15 12.06 14.48 623K 900K 10.98
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up on higher volume but lost most of the gain. Still closed up for the day.
AMZN 05/03 BO 45.22 -0.48 30.3 35.45 10M 12M 41.55
Current. Gapped up to close slightly down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.2 +0.02 3.43 4.22 84K 350K 3.19
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and reached 3.30 to close slightly over the 10 day MVA. Volume was higher but still well below average.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.26 -0.11 2.26 2.72 473K 1M 2.15
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 8.1 -0.61 8.06 10.12 869K 791K 7.72
Current. Gapped up but lost all of yesterday's gain to hold at the 10 day MVA. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday. Volume was lower.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 8.11 -0.15 6.5 8.25 291K 500K 7.42
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Still in good shape.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 48.59 -1.41 0 0 312K 0 0
AVNX 08/14 Flat 4.86 -0.03 4.68 5.92 1.4M 2M 4.49
Current. Gapped up but lost its gain to close slightly down on higher volume. Still in good shape.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 24.28 -0.83 19.58 23.25 183K 376K 23.38
Current. Moved down on higher volume, but still below average. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday but held that support.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 12.81 +0.07 13.88 16.65 6M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit. Opened higher but closed down to rest on the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Looking for the bounce off the 10 day MVA on higher volume before we will enter the play. Still holding the handle.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 12.81 +0.07 13.37 16.22 6M 16M 12.72
Current.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 6.13 -0.07 5.54 6.94 1000 1.4M 5.72
Current. Pull back on higher volume, but still below average. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
BLI 08/14 Cup hdl 17.6 -0.2 17.18 20.38 881K 750K 16.85
Current. Pull back slightly on higher volume. Still in good shape.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.69 +0.14 3.22 4.05 1.3M 822K 3.22
Current. Good move up on higher volume.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.09 -0.04 5.3 6.68 166K 200K 5.69
Current. Gapped up to close slightly down on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA. Stock held above the 10 day MVA.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 12.32 -0.01 9.73 11.75 1.7M 1.4M 11.88
Current. Moved up intraday but lost most of the day's move to close slightly down on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Good test of the last big move higher.
CY 08/16 A Wedge 17.15 +0.24 15.68 18.78 2.7M 3M 16.98
Current. Gapped up to move higher intraday on lower volume, but lost the move, showing a doji. The doji indicates a pullback.
DCEL 08/21 Flat 6.84 -0.26 7.58 9.45 365K 800K 6.88
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to rest on the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Looking for a bounce off the 18 day MVA up to the buy point on higher volume to enter the play.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 21.41 -0.19 22.06 26.48 9.6M 9M 21.12
Testing the 50 day MVA on above average volume. This is where we see if the buyers come back in.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 35.69 -1.57 23.81 28.42 1.7M 225K 34.94
Current. Broke through the exponential 50 day MVA on continued strong volume. Want it to hold 35 support and recover the 50 day this week.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 35.69 -1.57 22.75 27.35 1.7M 225K 34.94
Current.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 24.3 -0.83 24.18 27.48 649K 1.7M 23.18
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Still in good shape.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 110.98 -1.62 69.45 92 6.5M 12M 107
Current. Gapped up to close down on lower volume. Still in good shape but want to see it hold 110.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 110.98 -1.62 62.45 92 6.5M 12M 107
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.28 -0.02 1.88 2.45 421K 210K 2.18
Current. Pull back to rest on the 18 day MVA on lower volume, but still above average. Continuing its march up the 18 day MVA.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 15.35 -0.02 15.34 18.45 417K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Issued. Drifted up on low volume all week. Even though volume was higher Friday, it ran in place. Need to see the breakout.
FARO 08/16 Test 50 10.2 -0.1 10.35 12.12 49K 220K 9.91
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 17.14 -0.05 10.55 12.75 238K 195K 16.12
Current. Another doji as it moves laterally on low volume at 17. Still in good shape.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 17.14 -0.05 9.2 10.96 238K 195K 16.12
Current.
GEMS 08/18 Dbl btm 1.62 -0.01 1.74 2.22 331K 300K 1.54
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down at the open but a test of the 10 day bounced it back. Still looks good.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.26 -0.04 12.14 14.45 62K 218K 11.98
Current. Pull back slightly on lower volume. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
GTRC 08/09 Test 18 31.48 -0.78 33.06 41 350K 700K 31.75
Buy Not Issued. Fell through the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.23 -0.14 6.07 7.28 2.3M 1.7M 6.06
Current. Gapped down to hold at the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Big money came in to hold the stock at the 10 day MVA. Want it to hold here and continue the move.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 27.39 +1 25.88 30.95 121M 75M 25.85
Current. Huge gap up on strong volume. Lost some of the day's gain, but still closed with a nice gain.
IUSA 08/19 Flat 9.01 -0.21 9.54 11.48 148K 283K 8.86
Buy Not Hit. Holding the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Look for a rebound on higher volume before we enter the play.
JNPR 08/20 Flat 15.48 -0.12 15.45 18.68 10M 15M 15.35
Current. Gapped up, but lost its gain to close down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 46.17 -1.33 45.08 54.25 2.3M 1M 45.98
Current. Gapped higher but gave it back on lower volume. Want it to hold 15.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.46 -0.54 29.06 35 359K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to hold at 10 day MVA on lower volume. Look for a bounce on higher volume before we will enter the play.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 12.24 +0.08 10.52 12.75 101K 248K 11.44
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Letting the stock make its run.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 24.94 +0.17 22.25 27.95 612K 488K 22.88
Current. Gapped higher, showing a doji on very strong trade. Letting it work for us but may test support at 24.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 24.94 +0.17 22.8 27.95 612K 488K 22.88
Current.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 23.29 -0.09 22.95 27.42 240K 325K 22.12
Current. Gapped up but gave it back on lower volume. Still in good shape.
MPS 08/16 Cup hdl 9.35 -0.3 9.75 11.68 699K 677K 9.07
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up to close down on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
NSM 08/13 Cup hdl 28.13 +0.39 24.94 29.94 5.9M 5.3M 27.94
Current. Gapped up on higher volume. Closed well off the high but a strong move and letting it run for us.
NTOP 08/20 A Wedge 5.63 -0.23 5.9 7 180K 300K 5.46
Current. Gapped up but rolled over to close down on lower volume. Held Wednesday's gain but needs to hold 5.50.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.45 -0.52 0 0 582K 0 0
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 4.19 +0.04 3 3.75 436K 900K 3.96
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Continue to let the stock run
PCOR 08/13 Cup hdl 2.24 +0.01 2.46 3.12 92K 225K 2.18
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on lower volume. Volume needs to increase before we will enter the play.
PMTI 08/06 BO 7.55 +0.87 6.59 7.91 630K 200K 6.94
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge. Great move and we entered the play.
PWER 08/12 Test BO 11.56 -0.69 11 13.45 586K 675K 11.25
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 16.64 -0.35 17.75 21.35 151K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up but then gave it back to close down on lower volume. Stock held at the 10 day MVA. Looking for the stock to bounce off the 10 day MVA on higher volume before we will enter the play.
QCOM 08/21 DB hdl 38.87 +0.23 39.58 47.55 17M 12M 37.58
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on higher volume. Lost most of the day's gain. Will let it reload.
QRSI 08/20 Cup hdl 8.34 -0.29 8.6 10.72 219K 184K 7.92
Current. Gapped up but lost the day's gain to close slightly down on lower volume. Held above Wednesday's gain. Still in good shape.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 26.8 -0.33 27.55 33 2.3M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.8 -0.33 26.3 30.94 2.3M 6M 26.75
Current. Moved down to hold the 18 day MVA on higher volume. Fell through the 18 day MVA intraday. Will watch the stock to see if holds at the 18 day MVA.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 31.55 -1.56 32.2 38.25 6.3M 10M 31.05
Current. Fell to rest on the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Want to see it hold the short term MVA and provide a strong bounce.
SPIL 08/21 Test BO 4.17 -0.04 4.33 5.41 1.6M 904K 3.96
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up to close slightly down on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA. Wild action so waiting for the next clearer move.
TGT 08/09 Flat 38.4 -0.61 40.12 48 2.6M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up to close down on lower volume. Stock held at the simple 50 day MVA. Will watch to see if stock rebounds on higher volume to enter the play.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.65 0 4.06 5.65 53K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Wide swings up and down to close flat on lower volume. Test the 18 day MVA. Looking for a bounce with higher volume before we will enter the play.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 32.41 +0.03 28.06 31.44 557K 494K 29.45
Current. Gapped up but lost most of the day's gain to close up on lower volume. Still in good shape.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 32.41 +0.03 23.42 27.62 557K 603K 29.45
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 32.41 +0.03 21.88 26 557K 603K 29.45
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 32.41 +0.03 19.3 22.19 557K 577K 29.45
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.12 -0.25 7.7 9.45 60K 200K 6.96
Current. Fell through the 18 day MVA to hold above the exponential 50 day MVA on higher volume. Volume was still below average. Will watch to see if the stock tests the 50 day MVA on lower volume.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 36.45 -0.98 28.8 34.12 1.1M 2.1M 33.52
Current. Gapped higher but gave it back and more. Still in the uptrend over the 10 day MVA.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 36.45 -0.98 23.45 28 1.1M 2M 33.52
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 45.21 -0.15 41.72 50 2M 4.5M 42.12
Current. Gapped up but gave it back to close slightly down on lower volume. Still in good shape but would really like to see it hold here at 45.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 32.78 -0.5 19.76 20 4.3M 8.5M 31.94
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.08 -0.27 16.95 20.45 115K 250K 15.96
Current. Moved slightly down on lower volume. Reached up to touch the 18 day MVA intraday but could not hold the move. If it fall thru this support we exit.
WTW 08/09 Put 43.15 -0.41 42.84 39.68 215K 800K 43.74
Buy Not Issued. Moved down on lower volume, but rolling over at the 50 day. Looks ready to fall but needs to show some higher volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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