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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
8-25-03
Existing home sales, July (10:00): 5.90M expected, 5.83M June.
8-26-03
Durable goods orders, July (8:30): 0.9% expected, 2.3% June.
Consumer confidence, August (10:00): 79.7 expected, 76.6 July.
New homes sales, July (10:00): 1.14M expected, 1.16M June.
8-28-03
Q2 GDP (8:30): 2.9% expected, 2.4% previously reported.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 391K expected, 386K prior.
8-29-03
Personal income, July (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% June.
Personal spending, July (8:30): 0.8% expected, 0.3% June.
Michigan sentiment revised, August (9:45): 90.2 expected, 90.2 first reported.
Chicago PMI, August (10:00): 55.8 expected, 55.9 prior.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Friday good movers: CHRD; JWN; TXN; MRVL
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
TSA (The Sports Authority--$31.5; +1.62; optionable): Sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsa.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. TSA is in the process of breaking out of a big 17 month double bottom with handle base. During the base accumulation is a solid 18 to 13 (18 up price weeks on rising volume to 13 down price weeks on rising volume). The company has completed its merger with Gart Sports and is set to announce results on Monday after the close. The pattern suggests that the results will be positive. Super money flow and relative strength is ready to make a breakout along with the stock, a good indication of a strong move. The aggressive play is to take positions before the announcement; aggressive because TSA has made a good two week move and powered ahead Friday on strong volume. We are looking at taking a partial position if it continues on strong volume and makes the breakout. It just might give us a stock split announcement to boot.
Volume: 669.1K Avg Volume: 153.318K
BUY POINT: $31.69 Volume=400K Target=$38 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: TSA AF - Jan. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsa.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
WONE (Wire One Technologies--$3.35; +0.25; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wone.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. WONE is testing the breakout from its first base off the low after peaking in November 2001. The base is 8.5 months long and accumulation is excellent at 9 to 2 (9 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Wednesday WONE made the breakout on strong volume, was all over the map Thursday, and then started back up Friday. Earnings are already out and the company subsequently made the breakout. Like that action along with the strong money flow and relative strength breakout.
Volume: 148.78K Avg Volume: 76.828K
BUY POINT: $3.53 Volume=150K Target=$4.25 Stop=$3.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wone.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
BAC (Bank of America--$78.38; -2.61; optionable): Big bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bac.html
STATUS: Put. BAC is one of those big bank names that had a really rough Friday. It plowed through the 50 day MVA (80.21) on a huge volume surge. It had been in a steady uptrend since the April breakout, and this is the first 50 day MVA breach since. Friday's break lower was sharp; stocks often bounce right back to test the breach, and that is our favorite downside entry point. We are looking for BAC to rebound up toward 80 and then fail and turn back down. That is the point we move in for a quick run lower and a nice return.
Volume: 9.161M Avg Volume: 5.532M
BUY POINT: Test 80 and then a move back down through $79.25. Volume=6M Target=$76 Stop=$80.35
POSITION: BAC WP - Nov. $80p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bac.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
SLM (SLM Corp.--$39.94; -0.8; optionable): Student loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Put. We are flipping SLM to a downside play as it failed its consolidation, dropping through the 50 day MVA (40.74) Friday on rising, average volume. Not a massive breakdown, but a common theme the past two days: stocks relying on credit services to make their money have been under pressure. We are going to let this one bounce up as well toward the 50 day MVA and then when it rolls over after failing we move in. That accomplishes two important goals: it helps avoid getting whipsawed if the stock makes a quick recovery and just keeps running, and it also sets up the most advantageous entry point as it gives us more room to the downside to work with.
Volume: 1.428M Avg Volume: 1.37M
BUY POINT: $40.35 Volume=1.5M Target=$38.25 Stop=$40.88
POSITION: SLM VY - Oct. 41.625p (-76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slm.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$8.48; +0.01; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is about as close as it can get without making the actual breakout. Friday EMBT was rallying but again gave the move back to hold just below 8.50. Volume was sharply higher, rising to average on the move. Still showing excellent accumulation at 9 to 3, and money flow is leading higher. EMBT is trying to follow, and we think it will.
Volume: 219.228K Avg Volume: 196.949K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=400K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$29.79; -0.85; no options): Wireless communications (Russia)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice test of the Tuesday breakout move. GLDN has come back to test the 10 day MVA (29.37), tapping at that support level on the Friday low and bouncing to recoup some of the losses. That indicates that some big money stepped in at this level to support the stock. Looking for a strong move back up off this level for a new entry point.
Volume: 449.12K Avg Volume: 158.154K
BUY POINT: $30.45 (orig. $30.40) Volume=200K Target=$36.48 Stop=$29.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gldn.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
HBIO (Harvard Bioscience--$5.23; +0.18; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hbio.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong break higher on 8-12, HBIO has moved laterally on below average volume, holding just below 5.25 on the close and 5 on the lows. The 10 day MVA (5.03) has risen to meet the stock, and on these nice lateral consolidations, that tends to set off the next leg higher. Excellent money flow, and relative strength is right there, ready to breakout itself. We really like these patterns as the stock is squeezed from below with rising lows. When they break higher, the typically break big.
Volume: 58K Avg Volume: 104.517K
BUY POINT: New: aggressive: $5.28; Breakout: 5.42 (orig $5.10) Volume=153K Target=$6.54 Stop=$4.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hbio.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
HDTV (Spatialight--$3.77; +0.02; no options): Microdisplays for high res imaging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdtv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday HDTV was makign the move again, rallying to 3.95 on the high but then giving it back. Volume remained huge, holding well after the very strong Thursday move. We don't like that it pulled back Friday, but that looked to be a move in sympathy with the market. We still want to see another solid move from the 7 month base sporting excellent 10 to 4 accumulation (10 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 348.974K Avg Volume: 89.484K
BUY POINT: $3.88 Volume=125K Target=$4.85 Stop=$3.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdtv.html
Play Date: 08/20/2003
HYC (Hypercom--$5; +0.15; no options): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hyc.html
STATUS: Flat. HYC is still in the handle of its 4 month base that has banged around between 4 and 5. It looks to be making a higher low at the 10 day MVA (4.79), tapping that level on the Friday open and then rallying back right to the breakout point as volume jumped back above average. Excellent accumulation at 6 to 2 and money flow is heading higher ahead of the price. We expect HYC to make a breakout move to follow tha tmoney flow.
Volume: 275.9K Avg Volume: 154.957K
BUY POINT: $5.21 Volume=225K Target=$6.55 Stop=$4.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hyc.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
LPSN (Liveperson--$3; -0.1; no options): Customer service solutions for online companies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lpsn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. LPSN is still testing the breakout, closing at the 10 day MVA and support Friday on continued below average volume. LPSN exploded higher in late May , formed another base, and is now running up the short term MVA. Strong money flow and a relative strenght breakout on the strong move last Tuesday. Looking to move in as it comes up off the test on some rising volume.
Volume: 201.874K Avg Volume: 389.4K
BUY POINT: $3.22 Volume=425K Target=$4.05 Stop=$2.99
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lpsn.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$38.87; +0.23; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to make the breakout Friday, moving up to 39.60 on the high before fading back with the market. Volume was excellent, and we were still tempted to move in even though it fell back from the breakout point. We held off and will wait for the next breakout move. It tried a breakout in July but then fell back to form the current 7 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. After Friday it may come back toward the 10 day MVA (38.23) before starting up to try another breakout.
Volume: 16.786M Avg Volume: 11.581M
BUY POINT: $39.58 Volume=12M Target=$47.55 Stop=$37.58
POSITION: AAW AH - Jan. $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
ACV: Still researching a split date. Still at the 10 day MVA on low volume. Struggling to hold the 18 day MVA.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03. Gapped higher and it too turned over and solid off to the 18 day MVA. Volume remained low.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Had to exit and take the rest of the gain off the table as it broke the 50 day MVA.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings. Still edging higher on below average volume. At this stage we are going to let it form a handle and then make the breakout.
CLE: Forecast to announce a split 8-21 before the market with earnings. Held steady after the huge Thursday breakout. Ready for a test toward the gap up point as the next entry.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings. Testing the 10 day MVA on rising though still below average volume.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: No split announced 8-21-03, but a very nice handle forming.
DG: Forecast to announce a split on 8-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Still holding the move over 76.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Gave back some of the move Friday but on low volume.
FOSL: No split announced 8-12-03 but moving well.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings. Gapped higher but gave the move back. Finally got some volume, but went the wrong way.
HAR: Researching a date but making the move. Held steady with a higher volume doji Friday.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Turned back a big on rising, average volume. Still trending higher.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. Holding onto a strong Thursday move.
NDN: Forecast 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings. Holding up well, but needs to get over 36.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03. Still moving right up to the breakout point. Volume was better and it needs to be if it gives the breakout move.
PIXR: No split with earnings. Added a bit to the super Thursday move.
ROST: Still researching a new date. Gapped higher but turned and sold back to the 10 day MVA.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Got into some trouble Friday, breaking through the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings. Still holding up well, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low and recouping some of the losses on rising volume.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$37.6; -0.59; optionable): Athletic shoes. Forecast to announce a 2 for 1 split on 10-28-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2 for 1 split in June 2002 at $45. Before that it announced a 2:1 split on 2-8-99 at a stock price of $46.15. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We said we were looking at KSWS as a pre-announcement play, and with this low volume pullback we are looking to get in on the next move higher. It is currently forming a handle to a 6 week base that follows the breakout and run from a 6 month base spanning November to April. Late last week it pulled back to test the 18 day MVA (37.38) and rebounded some. Accumulation is positive at 2:1 in the short base, and this is on top of good buying all the way up. Looking for KSWS to break higher on volume off of this test and clear the August high for the buy point.
Volume: 79.152K Avg Volume: 189.578K
BUY POINT: $39.19 Volume=284K Target=$47 Stop=$37.32
POSITION: SWU AH - Jan. $40c (39 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$63.81; -1.93; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 9-22-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Flat. Still moving laterally between 61.25 and 66, falling back Friday from the top of the range. Volume was higher but still below average. This move has been ongoing for 7 weeks, and this pullback to the simple 50 day MVA (63.53) may present the next good entry point.
Volume: 1.471M Avg Volume: 1.945M
BUY POINT: New: $66.45 (orig. $65.88) Volume=2M Target=$75.45 Stop=$63.58
POSITION: OAQ KL - Nov. $60c (72 delta) or OAQ KM - Nov. $65c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$51.5; -0.33; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 at stock price of $21.84. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Flat base. COLM has edged back to test the 50 day MVA (51.01) to end the week, showing a very nice, tight doji Friday right on that level. One of our favorite apparel stocks, we are just going to be patient and let it make the breakout move. The nice pullback to the key support level is a place where buying should come in if it is time to make the move.
Volume: 73.47K Avg Volume: 274.851K
BUY POINT: $54.12 Volume=475K Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.85
POSITION: TQQ JK - Oct. $55c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CPWM (Cost Plus World Market--$38.66; -0.3; optionable): Discount variety stores. No announcement on 8-21-03 with earnings. Trying to pinpoint the next possible date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-20-99 at a stock price of $47.The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the handle to a short 7 week base. CPWM tried to make the breakout Friday, hitting 40.34 on the high before giving it all back and more. Still a solid pattern, and we just sit back, be patient, and let it show us the breakout move for us to move in and start building positions.
Volume: 291.146K Avg Volume: 261.147K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=375K Target=$48 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: CUS KH - Nov. $40c (37 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cpwm.html
Play Date: 08/12/2003
DG (Dollar General--$20.09; -0.21; optionable): Discount variety. Forecast to announce a split on 8-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 4-25-00 at a stock price of $23. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-2-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. DG provided a strong breakout last week and then came back Friday, but on low, below average volume and holding the breakout on the test back. This is the area we want it to hold, and then break higher on strong volume. That is the next entry point.
Volume: 1.229M Avg Volume: 1.9M
BUY POINT: New: $20.55 (orig. $19.85) Volume=2.9M Target=$23.88 Stop=$19.58
POSITION: DG KW - Nov. $17.50c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dg.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$27.65; -0.41; optionable): Watches and other fashion accessories. No split announced on 8-12-03 with earnings. Looking for the next date, but a nice, low volume pullback here.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FOSL made the breakout moves over the past two weeks, rallying to 29 before making the current lower volume test of the 10 day MVA (27.53). It is moving up the 10 day MVA, and this test looks like a very good as it tests the breakout on low volume, a natural launching point for the next leg higher.
Volume: 149.955K Avg Volume: 263.738K
BUY POINT: New: $28.25 (orig. $27.58) Volume=362K Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.38
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/16/2003
COH (Coach--$55.49; -1.05; optionable): Handbags and such. Splits 2:1 on 10-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Flat base. Giving us another chance here with a low volume test back Friday toward the 10 day MVA (54.91) after a nice volume break higher Wednesday and Thursday. The Friday selling sent it back, but it is holding up well, and the low volume shows no big money selling the stock. Looking for it to hold the 10 day and then starting back up on volume. That provides another great entry point.
Volume: 715.3K Avg Volume: 886.034K
BUY POINT: Test 55, then $55.32 on the way back up. Volume=950K Target=$63.75 Stop=$54.88
POSITION: COH KK - Nov. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 08/12/2003
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$57.98; -3.62; optionable): Splits 2:1 on 9-2.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Believe it or not, we got into our first shares of JCOM back in 2001. It has been a great run, and now we are going to have twice as many shares. A great way to build wealth because now we can use those shares to write calls against each time the stock tops and starts down. Right now, however, we are looking at the stock as a pre-split, and the way it can run, we don't want to risk selling calls against our positions right now. We have already taken some gain from our option position on this play already, and Friday JCOM was falling sharply though on low volume. It looks as if it is going to test the 10 day MVA (56.74) or down to price support at 65. From there it will be primed for the next move and that is when we jump in when it starts back up.
Volume: 423.853K Avg Volume: 825.88K
BUY POINT: New: Test 57, then 57.45 on the way back up (orig. $51.95) Volume=1.4M Target=$58 Stop=$56.68
POSITION: JQF IJ - Sept. $50c (53 delta) or JQF LK - Dec. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
End part 2 of 3
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