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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Friday good movers: ADI; CDIC; INTC; MRVL; PFG; PMTI; TXN
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
INFA (Informatica--$8.36; -0.24; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infa.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. INFA exploded out of a 7.5 month flat base on Thursday, moving on very strong volume. After such a strong move a stock typically tests back quickly before starting to move back up again. Friday INFA was falling back to make that test on some lower though still above average volume. We will let it come back to test support at 8 and then rebound. That is when we move in. Accumulation in the base is solid at 6 to 3 (6 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). The key on breakout tests is to see the lower volume on the pullback and then expanding volume on the way back up.
Volume: 1.623M Avg Volume: 765.211K
BUY POINT: Test $8 and then rebound through $8.22. Volume=1.1M Target=$9.95 Stop=$7.92
POSITION: UYF LU - Dec. $7.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/infa.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
TSA (The Sports Authority--$31.5; +1.62; optionable): Sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsa.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. TSA is in the process of breaking out of a big 17 month double bottom with handle base. During the base accumulation is a solid 18 to 13 (18 up price weeks on rising volume to 13 down price weeks on rising volume). The company has completed its merger with Gart Sports and is set to announce results on Monday after the close. The pattern suggests that the results will be positive. Super money flow and relative strength is ready to make a breakout along with the stock, a good indication of a strong move. The aggressive play is to take positions before the announcement; aggressive because TSA has made a good two week move and powered ahead Friday on strong volume. We are looking at taking a partial position if it continues on strong volume and makes the breakout. It just might give us a stock split announcement to boot.
Volume: 669.1K Avg Volume: 153.318K
BUY POINT: $31.69 Volume=400K Target=$38 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: TSA AF - Jan. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tsa.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
WONE (Wire One Technologies--$3.35; +0.25; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wone.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. WONE is testing the breakout from its first base off the low after peaking in November 2001. The base is 8.5 months long and accumulation is excellent at 9 to 2 (9 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Wednesday WONE made the breakout on strong volume, was all over the map Thursday, and then started back up Friday. Earnings are already out and the company subsequently made the breakout. Like that action along with the strong money flow and relative strength breakout.
Volume: 148.78K Avg Volume: 76.828K
BUY POINT: $3.53 Volume=150K Target=$4.25 Stop=$3.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wone.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
NFI (Novastar Financial--$52.4; -2.11; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfi.html
STATUS: Downside. NFI is in a continuing downtrend now after peaking at 75 in July. By continuing we mean it is making bounces lower and lower from rallies to the 10 day MVA (55.53). It made a bounce up last week to test that level, showed a doji Thursday, and then turned back down Friday on some rising though still below average volume. Looks ready to make a further drive lower. Options are a bit pricey, but there is also plenty of downside. Given the price, we are also looking at selling some September calls to take the higher premium on this stock's options. They are in the money calls, so there is some risk of having the stock called, but with the stocks sstarting the trend lower already, we like the play.
Volume: 424K Avg Volume: 537.252K
BUY POINT: $52.15 Volume=500K Target=$48 Stop=$53.18
POSITION: NFI VK - Oct. $55p (-55 delta) to buy or NFI IJ - Sept. $50c (66 delta) to sell
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nfi.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
SLM (SLM Corp.--$39.94; -0.8; optionable): Student loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Put. We are flipping SLM to a downside play as it failed its consolidation, dropping through the 50 day MVA (40.74) Friday on rising, average volume. Not a massive breakdown, but a common theme the past two days: stocks relying on credit services to make their money have been under pressure. We are going to let this one bounce up as well toward the 50 day MVA and then when it rolls over after failing we move in. That accomplishes two important goals: it helps avoid getting whipsawed if the stock makes a quick recovery and just keeps running, and it also sets up the most advantageous entry point as it gives us more room to the downside to work with.
Volume: 1.428M Avg Volume: 1.37M
BUY POINT: $40.35 Volume=1.5M Target=$38.25 Stop=$40.88
POSITION: SLM VY - Oct. 41.625p (-76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slm.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Still look good: EMBT; CASY; MIPS; ZMH; HBIO; HYC; QCOM; SNIC
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADI 08/04 Cup 41.51 +1.01 40.43 47.65 6.9M 5M 39.98
Current. Gapped up on an excellent volume surge. Lost some of the gain but still made a great move.
AMEV 07/26 A Wedge 6.78 -0.11 5.75 6.88 11K 200K 5.89
Target Hit. Took the gain when stock hit the target. Slight pull back on extremely low volume.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 6.78 -0.11 4.75 6 11K 102K 5.89
Target Hit.
AMSC 08/19 Test BO 11.6 +0.15 12.06 14.48 623K 900K 10.98
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up on higher volume but lost most of the gain. Still closed up for the day.
AMT 08/16 Cup hdl 10.9 +0.08 10.64 12.77 913K 2.8M 10.36
Current. Continued to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
ANAD 08/16 Cup hdl 4.28 -0.11 4.27 5.32 297K 625K 3.99
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.2 +0.02 3.43 4.22 84K 350K 3.19
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and reached 3.30 to close slightly over the 10 day MVA. Volume was higher but still well below average.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.26 -0.11 2.26 2.72 473K 1M 2.15
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 8.1 -0.61 8.06 10.12 869K 791K 7.72
Current. Gapped up but lost all of yesterday's gain to hold at the 10 day MVA. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday. Volume was lower.
AVNX 08/14 Flat 4.86 -0.03 4.68 5.92 1.4M 2M 4.49
Current. Gapped up but lost its gain to close slightly down on higher volume. Still in good shape.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 24.28 -0.83 19.58 23.25 183K 376K 23.38
Current. Moved down on higher volume, but still below average. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday but held above.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 21.55 -0.04 20.9 24.95 126K 321K 21.62
Current. Moved slightly down on higher volume, but still below average. Tested the simple 50 day MVA. Must hold here or will look to exit.
BHE 08/12 FlyPlat 43.39 -0.11 42.95 49 401K 550K 41.94
Current. Gapped up but closed down on higher volume. Still in good shape.
CASY 08/19 DB hdl 14.95 -0.25 15.57 18.75 162K 218K 14.89
Buy Not Hit. Moved down on higher volume to rest on the 18 day MVA.
CB 08/09 Cup hdl 68 -0.85 66.06 75.97 1M 2.7M 63.04
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA. Needs to test and rally on volume to enter.
CCMP 08/13 Cup hdl 67 +1.01 65.5 74.88 750K 1.2M 64.94
Current. Gapped up, but lost most of the day's gain. Stock still closed up for the day with slightly lower volume.
CDIC 08/20 Cup hdl 4.74 +0.17 4.55 5.55 1.2M 271K 4.22
Current. Nice move up on strong volume.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 31.5 0 19.25 23.25 243K 225K 29.49
Current. Gapped up to close flat on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday.
CHS 07/23 Test BO 27.68 -0.59 27.05 31.25 757K 2.2M 27.18
Current. Gapped up but lost its gain to close holding the 10 day MVA. The volume was higher but still below average. Still in good shape but will need to hold at the 18 day MVA.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.09 -0.04 5.3 6.68 166K 200K 5.69
Current. Gapped up but closed slightly down on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA. Stock held above the 10 day MVA so still in good shape.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 12.32 -0.01 9.73 11.75 1.7M 1.4M 11.88
Current. Moved up intraday but lost most of the day's move to close slightly down on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still solid.
CSC 08/04 DB hdl 42.66 -0.8 43.42 48.45 991K 2.4M 42.12
Current. Gapped up but closed down on lower volume. Still above the 10 day MVA.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 35.69 -1.57 23.81 28.42 1.7M 225K 34.94
Current. Broke through the exponential 50 day MVA on continued strong volume. Want it to hold 35 support and recover the 50 day this week.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 35.69 -1.57 22.75 27.35 1.7M 225K 34.94
Current.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 24.3 -0.83 24.18 27.48 649K 1.7M 23.18
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Still in good shape.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 8.48 +0.01 8.75 10.48 219K 400K 8.14
Buy Not Hit. Moved slightly up on higher volume. Wide swing up and down to close up after losing most of the day's gain. Still in good shape.
ERICY 08/11 Test 18 15.21 -0.35 14.82 17.74 1.5M 5M 14.82
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
FARO 08/16 Test 50 10.2 -0.1 10.35 12.12 49K 220K 9.91
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
FFIV 08/18 Flat 19 -0.61 19.58 23.48 699K 745K 18.55
Current. Gapped up to close down on lower volume but still strong. Held above the 10 day MVA. If falls below the 10 day MVA on strong volume will look to exit.
FINL 08/16 Test BO 25 -0.04 26.25 31.54 447K 625K 24.38
Buy Not Issued. Pull back to rest just below the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Lost most of the day's gain to close slightly down. The stock will need to hold the 18 day MVA or we will exit.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 17.14 -0.05 10.55 12.75 238K 195K 16.12
Current. Pull back on slightly lower volume. Wide swing up and down intraday. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 17.14 -0.05 9.2 10.96 238K 195K 16.12
Current.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 59.11 -2.98 41.75 48 326K 766K 57.64
Current. Moved down sharply to test the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Stock will need to hold at the 18 day MVA.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 59.11 -2.98 26.5 30.75 326K 521K 57.62
Current.
HBIO 08/14 Test BO 5.23 +0.18 5.1 6.54 58K 153K 4.94
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Still in good shape and looks ready for more.
HDTV 08/21 Cup hdl 3.77 +0.02 3.88 4.85 349K 125K 3.44
Buy Not Issued. Moved up slightly on strong but lower volume.
HYC 08/20 Flat 5 +0.15 5.21 6.55 276K 225K 4.72
Buy Not Hit. Opened on the 10 day MVA and bounced off on strong volume to close up. Stock needs to continue to move up on strong volume, before we will enter the play but looks good.
IMA 07/28 A Wedge 20.81 +0.25 21.42 25.72 126K 115K 20.38
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on a volume surge. Looking for stock to continue its move up on strong volume to enter the play.
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 6.05 -0.19 5.52 7 312K 244K 5.48
Target Hit. Went ahead and took the gain as IWOV fell to the 200
day MVA and IMAN is tied to that stock via acquisition.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 27.39 +1 25.88 30.95 121M 75M 25.85
Current. Huge gap up on strong volume. Lost some of the day's gain, but still closed with a nice gain.
JNPR 08/20 Flat 15.48 -0.12 15.45 18.68 10M 15M 15.35
Current. Gapped up, but lost its gain to close down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
LAVA 08/07 DB hdl 20.83 -0.44 21.85 26.25 278K 1.2M 20.48
Current. Continued its low volume pull back to rest above the 18 day MVA. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday.
LF 08/20 Cup hdl 34.2 -1.1 35.34 42 446K 845K 32.08
Current. Gapped up at the open to close down on lower volume. Held Wednesday's gain. Still in good shape.
LLTC 07/23 Rv H&S 40.03 +0.13 37.35 44.85 6.3M 9M 39.45
Current. Gapped up at the open but lost most of the day's gain. The stock still close up on higher volume. Still in good shape.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 71.76 -0.09 58.5 67.78 508K 610K 69.88
Current. Moved slightly up on higher volume. Continue to let the stock work for us.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 12.24 +0.08 10.52 12.75 101K 248K 11.44
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Letting the stock make its run.
MIPS 08/13 Cup hdl 3.6 +0.05 3.69 4.65 80K 275K 3.28
Buy Not Hit. Opened on the 10 day MVA and bounced up on lower volume. We did not enter the play because the volume was not there.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 24.94 +0.17 22.25 27.95 612K 488K 22.88
Current. Moved up on higher volume. Continue to let the stock run.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 24.94 +0.17 22.8 27.95 612K 488K 22.88
Current.
MMSI 08/05 Test BO 21 -0.07 20.44 24.33 131K 183K 20.68
Current. Doji on higher volume, but still below average. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Looks very good here in the lateral move and test of support.
MRBA 08/14 Cup hdl 3.91 +0.16 3.85 4.85 90K 215K 3.54
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. We did not like yesterday's action and the volume was not there so we did not enter the play.
MRVL 08/02 Cup hdl 41.69 +3.33 38.5 46 9.1M 4.9M 39.88
Current. Huge gap up on strong volume.
MWD 08/12 A Wedge 48.28 -1 49.54 55 3.5M 5.8M 47.28
Buy Not Issued. Big drop to rest on the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to recover here and make the breakout or the pattern falls apart.
MXIM 08/18 Rv H&S 43.78 +0.13 42.6 50 9.2M 9M 42.60
Current. Big gap up at the open, but lost most of the day's gain. Continue to let the stock work for us.
MYL 08/19 Rv H&S 37.27 -0.18 36.71 43.74 1.4M 1.5M 35.65
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Still in good shape.
NENG 08/04 Test BO 5.56 -0.09 5.12 6.35 777K 232K 5.25
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Still in good shape.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 4.19 +0.04 3 3.75 436K 900K 3.96
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Continue to let the stock run.
PFG 08/09 Put 31.39 -0.38 31.88 30 1.1M 1M 31.65
Current. Nice move down on higher volume.
PFSW 08/21 Test BO 1.6 0 1.68 2.25 262K 228K 1.44
Buy Not Issued. Very volatile intraday but managed to close flat on lower volume. Needs to clear 1.75 resistance that has formed.
PMTI 08/06 BO 7.55 +0.87 6.59 7.91 630K 200K 6.94
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge. Great move and we entered the play.
QCOM 08/21 DB hdl 38.87 +0.23 39.58 47.55 17M 12M 37.58
Buy Not Issued. Moved up on higher volume. Lost most of the day's gain. Will let it reload.
QRSI 08/20 Cup hdl 8.34 -0.29 8.6 10.72 219K 184K 7.92
Current. Gapped up but lost the day's gain to close slightly down on lower volume. Held above Wednesday's gain. Still in good shape.
RIMM 07/31 Cup hdl 28.74 -0.79 27.52 31.25 2M 2.5M 27.18
Current. Gapped up but lost most of the day's gain on lower volume. Still in good shape.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 31.55 -1.56 32.2 38.25 6.3M 10M 31.05
Current. Fell to rest on the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Want to see it hold the short term MVA and provide a strong bounce.
SNIC 08/11 Test BO 12.2 -0.28 12.15 14.55 661K 900K 11.79
Current. Gapped up at the open to close down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
SNWL 08/19 Test 50 6.09 -0.11 5.85 7.12 1.3M 800K 5.85
Current. Gapped up to close down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
SPIL 08/21 Test BO 4.17 -0.04 4.33 5.41 1.6M 904K 3.96
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up to close slightly down on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA. Wild action so waiting for the next clearer move.
SRA 08/04 Cup hdl 15.16 -0.23 16.74 20.12 40K 247K 15.57
Buy Not Hit. Dropping for now.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.65 0 4.06 5.65 53K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. Wide swings up and down to close flat on lower volume. Test the 18 day MVA. Looking for a bounce with higher volume before we will enter the play.
TKLC 08/02 Test BO 15.2 -0.62 15.96 18.95 450K 1M 14.96
Current. Gapped up to close down resting on the 10 day MVA. The volume was higher, but still below average. Will watch the stock to see if falls on higher volume. Will exit if it breaks the 18 day MVA with higher volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 32.41 +0.03 23.42 27.62 557K 603K 29.45
Current. Gapped up but lost most of the day's gain to close up on lower volume. Still in good shape.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 32.41 +0.03 21.88 26 557K 603K 29.45
Current.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 2.82 -0.1 3.15 4 36K 120K 2.93
Buy Not Issued. Stock broke through the 18 day MVA to close slightly above the exponential 50 day MVA on lower volume. Will let the stock test the 50 day MVA and see if it rebounds for an entry point if conditions are right.
TUES 08/06 Cup hdl 33.25 -0.18 30.68 36.78 570K 309K 30.98
Current. Pull back on strong volume. Wide swing up and down to close slightly down. Still in good shape.
TXN 08/21 DB hdl 22.81 +0.66 23.64 28.88 23M 15M 21.88
Current. Big gap up on strong volume. Lost some of the day's gain to close with a nice gain. Letting the stock run.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 32.78 -0.5 19.76 20 4.3M 8.5M 31.94
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.08 -0.27 16.95 20.45 115K 250K 15.96
Current. Moved slightly down on lower volume. Reached up to touch the 18 day MVA intraday but could not hold the move. If it fall thru this support we exit.
XICO 07/02 A Wedge 9.8 +0.09 7.25 8.65 82K 172K 9.06
Current. Gapped up on higher volume. Touched the 10 day MVA intraday. Continue to let the stock run.
XOMA 07/28 Test BO 9.45 -0.37 8.35 10.24 1.4M 1.5M 8.93
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Still in good shape.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 48.8 -0.27 50.62 59 1.9M 3M 47.88
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to rest on the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Touched the 18 day MVA intraday. Looking for stock to rebound off the 10 day MVA on higher volume before we will enter the play.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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