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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1810.45
Resistance: The August high 1812 and 1814. Then 1860 to 1865.
Support: 1776 and 1770 (10 day MVA). 1760 (May 2002) is some support down to 1740. The 18 day MVA (1750). 1700 (Feb 2002 low). The exponential 50 day MVA (1700).
S&P 500: Closed at 1008.01
Resistance: June closing high at 1011. The June intraday high at 1015. Then 1050.
Support: The 18 day MVA (995). The exponential 50 day MVA (985) and 975 (December 1997 peak). 965 (August 2002 peak). 951 (late May high) to the mid-May high (948).
Dow: Closed at 9415.82
Resistance: 9500 (June 2002 lows). 9735.
Support: 9361 the July intraday high down to 9353. The 10 day MVA (9356). The 18 day MVA (9320). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high. The exponential 50 day MVA (9185).
Economic Calendar
9-2-03
ISM, August (10:00): 53.5 expected, 51.8 July.
9-3-03
Construction spending, July (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.3% June.
Federal Reserve Beige Booke (2:00)
9-4-03
Q2 Productivity (8:30): 6.3% expected, 5.7% Q1.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 395K expected, 394K prior.
ISM Services, August (10:00): 62.0 expected, 65.1 July.
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 0.8% expected, 1.5% June.
9-5-03
Non-farm payrolls, August (8:30): 15K expected, -44K July.
Unemployment rate, August (8:30): 6.2% expected, 6.2% July.
Hourly earnings (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% July.
Average workweek (8:30): 33.6 expected, 33.6 July.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: BDY; EGO; SBUX; SPIL; TQNT
Thursday night play results:
SPRT: Tried the move but fell back on the close.
AGRB: Still moving but volume was back below average. Still looks ready to go.
BEAS: Edged higher but could not hold the high as volume fell back to well below average levels.
New Plays for Tuesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/30/2003
KYPH (Kyphon--$23.74; -0.1; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kyph.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. KYPH blasted out of a 11 month base in late July, and has rallied to near 25 from 16 on that move. It is right now making its second test of the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA at 23.53 and 22.79 respectively). Stocks tend to make 4 to 5 runs up off of the short term MVA after a strong breakout. KYPH is there right now and that gives us plenty of upside left. It is showing a very tight intraday range as it works laterally, holding the 10 day MVA on the close on below average volume. This is a very nice test, setting the stage for the next leg. Accumulation in the long base was a solid 17 to 7 (14 up weeks on rising volume to 7 down weeks on rising volume), laying the foundation for this move. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is rady for another breakout, a good measure of the strength of the move. KYPH was a new issue in May 2002, and this is the run on the breakout from its first real base. That is where we like to catch new issues (e.g., DKS).
Volume: 274.333K Avg Volume: 340.983K
BUY POINT: $24.18 Volume=511K Target=$29 Stop=$22.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kyph.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
LNUX (VA Software--$3.35; -0.03; no options): Software development tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. LNUX beat the street and shot higher Thursday, moving out of a three week lateral test along the 10 day MVA (3.13) on a gap higher on strong trade. This move put LNUX back up to highs it hit in December of 2001. It is now edging back for a test of the breakout over 3.25, coming back on lower, below average volume. We are looking for it to hold at or near 3.25 and then start a rally back up. A strong volume move back up through the breakout point is the entry point.
Volume: 990.031K Avg Volume: 2.234M
BUY POINT: Test 3.25ish then back up through $3.47. Volume=3M Target=$4.55 Stop=$3.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lnux.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
NSM (National Semiconductor--$29.14; +0.5; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NSM made us some money earlier, and we took some gain when the market looked a bit iffy after the Friday reversal two weeks back. That turned out to be too cautious as NSM tapped the 10 day MVA and bounced right back up. It has moved between 28 and 29 the past three sessions, holding up well and setting up for the next move. NSM just broke from a 3 month base showing excellent 6 to 1 accumulation (6 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume), has strong money flow, and relative strength has broken out on the move. NSM was an early leader in the chip sector, and after this little 10 day MVA test it looks ready to continue the move. That is where we want to hook up with it again.
Volume: 2.423M Avg Volume: 3.496M
BUY POINT: $29.72 Volume=5M Target=$35 Stop=$27.38
POSITION: NSM AF - Jan. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nsm.html
Continuing plays that look ready:
Play Date: 08/25/2003
PLL (Pall Corp.--$25; +0.61; optionable): Filtration systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pll.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PLL is trying to make the break higher from its 2 month base, moving through the buy point Friday on rising but below average volume. Excellent money flow and relative strength is breaking out on the move. Need to see more volume on a further breakout move.
Volume: 465.6K Avg Volume: 674.108K
BUY POINT: New: 25.18 (orig. $24.60) Volume=800K Target=$29.35 Stop=$23.47
POSITION: PLL LX - Dec. $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pll.html
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
AVID 08/09 Test 18 49.7 +2.19 50.45 60 932K 1M 47.35
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABRX 08/14 A Wedge 23.79 +0.07 24.87 29.88 111K 600K 23.13
Buy Not Issued. Tested below the 18 day MVA to rebound and close higher forming a tight doji on very low volume. Continues to make a low volume lateral move.
ADI 08/04 Cup 41 +0.04 40.43 47.65 1.6M 5M 39.98
Current. Formed a doji closing slightly higher on lower volume. Stock needs to rise on more volume or it will not break through the high.
AGRB 08/28 Rv H&S 2.85 +0.06 3.02 3.95 4.3M 6.7M 2.74
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move higher up the 10 day MVA on lower but average volume.
AMSC 08/19 Test BO 12.19 -0.17 12.08 14.48 411K 900K 11.68
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close slightly down on higher volume.
AMZN 05/03 BO 46.32 +0.38 30.3 35.45 6.2M 12M 43.25
Current. Moved up higher on lower volume.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.5 +0.25 3.43 4.22 79K 350K 3.19
Current. Nice bounce off the 10 day MVA on higher volume, but still below average volume. Did not enter the play because the volume was not there.
APCC 08/27 Test BO 17.92 +0.01 18.12 21.88 1.3M 1.8M 17.25
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close fractionally up on lower, but average volume.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.26 +0.04 2.26 2.72 454K 1M 2.15
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA to close above the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 8.23 +0.09 8.06 10.12 211K 791K 8.10
Current. Ready to exit if it does not move early this week.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 49.7 +2.19 0 0 932K 0 0
AVNX 08/14 Flat 4.74 -0.06 4.68 5.92 533K 2M 4.49
Current. Tested 10 day MVA to rebound and close fractionally lower on very low volume. Still solid but needs to clear 5 on volume.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 26 +1.5 19.58 23.25 294K 376K 24.18
Current. Gapped up and made a nice move on much higher volume.
BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 13.51 +0.14 13.88 16.65 6.7M 16M 12.91
Buy Not Hit.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 13.51 +0.14 13.37 16.22 6.7M 16M 12.95
Current. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 6.5 +0.06 5.54 6.94 778K 1.4M 6.12
Current. Continues to climb the 10 day MVA on slightly lower volume.
BLI 08/14 Cup hdl 18.3 +0.36 17.18 20.38 512K 750K 17.38
Current. Nice move up on lower, but still average volume.
C 08/23 Put 43.35 +0.26 42.95 39.75 7.6M 13M 44.15
Current. Low volume rally to close just under the 10 day MVA.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.6 +0.08 3.22 4.05 232K 822K 3.34
Current. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
COLT 07/24 BO 6.93 +0.48 5.3 6.68 203K 200K 5.69
Target Hit. Took part of the gain as COLT rallied higher off the
10 day MVA on strong volume. Letting the rest work for us.
CRDS 08/26 A Wedge 3.2 +0.67 2.18 3 1.9M 186K 1.99
Target Hit. Exploding higher on once again strong volume. Took
some gain and let the rest run to work more for us.
Explosive moves.
DCEL 08/21 Flat 9.2 +0.25 7.75 9.68 2.3M 800K 7.40
Current. Gapped down at the open to recover and move even higher on much lower, but still strong volume.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 20.5 +0.2 22.06 26.48 9.1M 9M 21.12
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 37.82 +0.57 23.81 28.42 372K 225K 34.94
Current. Moved higher off the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Volume needs to increase so that the stock can move through resistance.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 37.82 +0.57 22.75 27.35 372K 225K 34.94
Current.
DRIV 08/25 Cup hdl 26.68 -0.46 25.75 30.25 877K 1.7M 24.15
Current.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 26.68 -0.46 24.18 27.48 877K 1.7M 23.48
Target Hit. Took some gain as DRIV moved higher again early, left
half to work with other existing positions.
DRL 08/23 Put 41.05 -0.09 40.9 38 171K 500K 41.88
Current. Moved slightly lower to form a tight doji under the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 55.41 +0.65 34.72 46 9.2M 12M 53.02
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA to rebound and close above the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 55.41 +0.65 31.22 46 9.2M 12M 53.02
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.62 +0.15 1.88 2.45 689K 210K 2.32
Current. Gapped higher on very strong volume. Enjoying the move.
ESA 08/05 Cup hdl 15.27 -0.01 15.34 18.45 83K 405K 14.44
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we are looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
FARO 08/16 Test 50 11.5 -0.15 10.35 12.12 98K 220K 10.32
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Managed to hold most of Wednesday's gain. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
GEMS 08/18 Dbl btm 1.96 -0.03 1.82 2.32 308K 300K 1.79
Current. Tapped 1.91 at the low to rebound and close fractionally lower on slightly lower volume. Managed to hold most of Tuesday's gain.
GTRC 08/09 Test 18 33.54 +0.2 33.4 41.48 285K 700K 32.02
Current. Continued to move higher on lower volume.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.7 +0.02 6.07 7.28 1.7M 1.7M 6.22
Current. Tapped 6.95 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain. Closed fractionally up on higher volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
INFA 08/23 Test BO 8.9 -0.1 8.22 9.95 1.3M 1.1M 7.92
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we are looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 28.59 +0.29 25.88 30.95 42M 75M 26.68
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA as we continue to let the stock work for us.
IUSA 08/19 Flat 9.33 +0.08 9.54 11.48 104K 283K 8.86
Buy Not Issued. The stock did not make the move we were looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
JNPR 08/20 Flat 17.21 -0.24 15.45 18.68 7.9M 15M 16.02
Target Hit. Took our gain when the stock hit the target.
KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 44.13 -0.29 45.08 54.25 740K 1M 45.98
Current. Tested the simple 50 day MVA to rebound and close down on lower volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 28.81 -0.2 29.06 35 508K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Issued. Slight pull back on lower volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 12.01 0 10.52 12.75 38K 248K 11.48
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound to form a tight doji on very low volume. Continues to make the low volume lateral move.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 27.52 +0.37 22.25 27.95 617K 488K 24.12
Current. Continued to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 27.52 +0.37 22.8 27.95 617K 488K 24.12
Current.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 23.38 -0.04 22.95 27.42 256K 325K 22.55
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower volume to close fractionally down. Continues to make a lateral move.
MPS 08/16 Cup hdl 9.55 -0.1 9.75 11.68 316K 677K 9.07
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
MROI 08/27 Cup hdl 12.96 -0.11 14.03 16.85 55K 163K 12.94
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close slightly above the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
NEOF 08/25 Rv H&S 13.03 +0.03 13.95 16.74 23K 106K 12.72
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
NTOP 08/20 A Wedge 5.53 -0.13 5.9 7 64K 300K 5.46
Current. Moved down to hold at the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.9 +0.17 0 0 256K 0 0
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 4.79 +0.04 3 3.75 486K 900K 4.22
Current. Continued to move up the 10 day MVA on higher volume.
PCOR 08/13 Cup hdl 2.2 -0.02 2.46 3.12 34K 225K 2.18
Buy Not Hit. Tested the simple 50 day MVA to rebound and close just under the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
PLL 08/25 Cup hdl 25 +0.61 24.6 28.88 466K 800K 23.47
Buy Not Issued. Explosive move up on higher, but still below average volume.
PMTI 08/06 BO 7.32 +0.1 6.59 7.91 53K 200K 6.94
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
PTEC 08/23 Cup hdl 6.29 +0.03 7.01 8.45 16K 195K 6.48
Buy Not Hit. The stock did not make the move we were looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep an eye on it.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 17.35 +0.11 17.75 21.35 94K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. The stock did not make the move we were looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep an eye on it.
QCOM 08/21 DB hdl 41.33 +0.36 40.52 48.65 9.3M 12M 39.62
Current. Continued to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
QRSI 08/20 Cup hdl 8.55 +0.27 8.6 10.72 172K 184K 7.98
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to close higher on above average volume. Still in uptrend.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 28.39 +0.75 27.55 33 4.4M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 28.39 +0.75 26.3 30.94 4.4M 6M 27.32
Current. Great move up on volume surge.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 31.02 -0.13 32.2 38.25 2.9M 10M 29.95
Current. Continue to move laterally on lower volume. Formed a tight doji on the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
SPIL 08/21 Test BO 4.3 +0.31 4.33 5.41 2.1M 904K 4.03
Current. Entered the play as the stock surged higher on excellent volume.
SPRT 08/28 A Wedge 8.91 -0.04 9.18 11.25 970K 910K 8.15
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session. Broke through resistance at 9 at the day's high but gave up the gain to close fractionally lower but above average volume.
TGT 08/09 Flat 40.6 +0.38 40.12 48 3.4M 5.7M 37.31
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
TIWI 08/07 A Wedge 3.8 -0.01 4.06 5.65 49K 689K 3.75
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we are looking for so we will drop for now, but will keep our eye on it.
TQNT 08/27 A Wedge 5.52 +0.19 5.27 6.58 3.4M 2.2M 4.97
Current. Another great move up on strong volume.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 34.5 -0.21 28.06 31.44 493K 494K 31.48
Current. Moved down on much lower, but still above average volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 34.5 -0.21 23.42 27.62 493K 603K 31.48
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 34.5 -0.21 21.88 26 493K 603K 31.48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 34.5 -0.21 19.3 22.19 493K 577K 31.48
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.23 -0.14 7.7 9.45 49K 200K 6.96
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA to rebound and hold at the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 37.87 +1.29 28.8 34.12 689K 2.1M 34.89
Current. Bounced up off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on higher, but below average volume.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 37.87 +1.29 23.45 28 689K 2M 34.89
Current.
UTSI 08/09 Test 50 43.02 +0.7 41.72 50 1.4M 4.5M 42.45
Current. Opened below the 18 day MVA to close slightly above the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 34.52 +0.23 19.76 20 3.4M 8.5M 31.94
Current. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.56 +0.02 16.95 20.45 87K 250K 16.48
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA to rally and close on the 10 day MVA forming a tight doji.
WEBX 08/26 Cup hdl 19.1 +0.13 18.55 22.25 1.1M 1.5M 17.68
Current. Moved up on much lower volume. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
WTW 08/09 Put 43.35 -0.15 42.54 39.68 366K 800K 43.28
Current. Moved down on lower volume. Tested the 18 day MVA to rebound and close just above the 18 day MVA on lower volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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