|
|
world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1810.45
Resistance: The August high 1812 and 1814. Then 1860 to 1865.
Support: 1776 and 1770 (10 day MVA). 1760 (May 2002) is some support down to 1740. The 18 day MVA (1750). 1700 (Feb 2002 low). The exponential 50 day MVA (1700).
S&P 500: Closed at 1008.01
Resistance: June closing high at 1011. The June intraday high at 1015. Then 1050.
Support: The 18 day MVA (995). The exponential 50 day MVA (985) and 975 (December 1997 peak). 965 (August 2002 peak). 951 (late May high) to the mid-May high (948).
Dow: Closed at 9415.82
Resistance: 9500 (June 2002 lows). 9735.
Support: 9361 the July intraday high down to 9353. The 10 day MVA (9356). The 18 day MVA (9320). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high. The exponential 50 day MVA (9185).
Economic Calendar
9-2-03
ISM, August (10:00): 53.5 expected, 51.8 July.
9-3-03
Construction spending, July (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.3% June.
Federal Reserve Beige Booke (2:00)
9-4-03
Q2 Productivity (8:30): 6.3% expected, 5.7% Q1.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 395K expected, 394K prior.
ISM Services, August (10:00): 62.0 expected, 65.1 July.
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 0.8% expected, 1.5% June.
9-5-03
Non-farm payrolls, August (8:30): 15K expected, -44K July.
Unemployment rate, August (8:30): 6.2% expected, 6.2% July.
Hourly earnings (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% July.
Average workweek (8:30): 33.6 expected, 33.6 July.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: CHS; ETN; HDTV; JBLU; JWN; KOOL; SBUX; TKLC; UOPX; UNTD
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/30/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$34.52; -0.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ICST is moving through a 7 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Last week it moved laterally over 34 and the 10 day MVA (33.47), showing nice, tight dojis on lower, below average volume. This base has formed after the May breakout from a 7 month base, a very nice short consolidation as the market overall took a breather. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. ICST is posed to make the breakout move.
Volume: 467.078K Avg Volume: 1.784M
BUY POINT: $35.32 Volume=2.7M Target=$42.38 Stop=$33.42
POSITION: IUY AG - Jan. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icst.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
MOBE (Mobility Electronics--$7.50; -0.11; no options): Power adaptors, etc. for mobile computing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mobe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The age of truly mobile computing is just starting to emerge, finally reaching some of the promise of the computer age. MOBE is one of those companies that is riding the wave. It is now forming the handle to a short 5 week base formed after a strong break higher in late May and a strong rally. Accumulation in the short base is 2 to 0, money flow is strong, and relative strength broke out. A very strong stock and a leader. Looking for the next chance to get into it.
Volume: 528.805K Avg Volume: 520.68K
BUY POINT: $8.04 Volume=781K Target=$10 Stop=$7.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mobe.html
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 08/30/2003
BKST (Brookstone--$28.25; -0.6; no options): Useful gadget stores. Splits 3:2 on 9-24-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkst.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. BKST is stair-stepping up the short term MVA after a big breakout in late June. It is making the third test of the 18 day, and stocks typically bounce 4 to 5 times up off of this level on their runs. As this is a pre-split, it still has plenty of upside for us to make some solid money. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout again on this last run. It has pulled back the past week, showing a loose hammer doji over the 18 day MVA (27.33) Friday. These are the tests we love to see on pre-splits, and we catch them as they make the rebound. The idea is to be ready for the move and make it quickly when it comes. This pattern helps a lot and is very conducive to a nice pre-split move.
Volume: 93.489K Avg Volume: 58.414K
BUY POINT: $28.65 Volume=90K Target=$33 Stop=$28.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bkst.html
New Post-Split:
Play Date: 08/30/2003
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$24.31; +0.25; optionable): Telecom equipment. Split 3:2 on 7-15-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CMTL has formed a 7 week base that started to form right before the split after CMTL raced ahead to that point. Stocks often fall back into bases shortly after a split as they need to consolidate their strong moves into the split. After testing back to 16 it has rallied sharply to 24 and is now working laterally on lower, below average volume. Accumulation in the short base is positive at 2 to 1, money flow is strong, and relative strength has broken out on this move as well. Solid action, and now we wait for the breakout to show itself. It should take a couple of sessions or so to form up really well and then deliver the move.
Volume: 451.304K Avg Volume: 338.11K
BUY POINT: $25.48 Volume=600K Target=$30.55 Stop=$23.42
POSITION: CQH AE - Jan. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/28/2003
ANEN (Anaren--$11.99; +0.48; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anen.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A nice price surge Friday, but died off, not backing the move. It still looks solid, however, in its 9 month base showing strong 11 to 4 accumulation (11 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is moving up ahead of price, action that often precedes a price breakout. It looks ready and we anticipate that volume will come into the stock early this week.
Volume: 60.149K Avg Volume: 84.993K
BUY POINT: New: 12.08 (orig. $11.88) Volume=127K Target=$14.35 Stop=$11.05
POSITION: EVB AB - Jan. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anen.html
Play Date: 08/26/2003
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$18.21; -0.08; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still very tight in its lateral move over the 10 day MVA (17.71), tapping that level on the Friday low and rebounding yet again. A very nice 7 week base showing excellent accumulation at 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow continues to lead higher, and relative strength is ready for a breakout.
Volume: 783.632K Avg Volume: 2.515M
BUY POINT: $18.62 Volume=3M Target=$22.35 Stop=$17.25
POSITION: AUK LW - Dec. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/askj.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
DST (DST Systems--$39.6; +0.1; optionable): Information delivery software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a very nice handle to its 10 week base, moving laterally on very low, below average volume. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 4 to 0; it has been all steady accumulation as the stock has moved more or less laterally in the base. Money flow is excellent, breaking out as the stock moves laterally the past three sessions. Relative strength is excellent and ready to breakout as well. Still being patient and letting it form its handle.
Volume: 396.6K Avg Volume: 866.997K
BUY POINT: $40.15 Volume=1.3M Target=$48 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: DST KH - Nov. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dst.html
Play Date: 08/20/2003
HYC (Hypercom--$4.95; 0; no options): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hyc.html
STATUS: Flat. Attempted a breakout move Friday but did not have volume to make the buy point or hold the intraday high (5.10). Other than that, HYC is strong in its 5 month flat base, holding the 18 day MVA (4.75) on the lows. Strong volume last Thursday indicates it is ready to move. It just needs more volume. Strong money flow moving up as the stock moves laterally to form this handle.
Volume: 121.6K Avg Volume: 160.828K
BUY POINT: $5.21 Volume=225K Target=$6.55 Stop=$4.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hyc.html
Play Date: 08/25/2003
PLXT (PLX Technology--$5.5; 0; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plxt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up and above average Friday as PLXT held flat in the 8 week handle to its 9 month base. Volume hs jumped up above average two of the last four sessions after being very quiet in the middle of the handle. That is an indication it is ready to make a move. Solid money flow and excellent accumulation in the base set the foundation for a breakout.
Volume: 268.076K Avg Volume: 234.114K
BUY POINT: $5.55 Volume=325K Target=$6.93 Stop=$4.98
POSITION: PIU AA - Jan. $5c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plxt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/23/2003
BAC (Bank of America--$79.25; +0.95; optionable): Money central bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bac.html
STATUS: Put. BAC crashed through the 50 day MVA (79.84) six sessions back, held near 78, and then started to rebound Friday. Volume was stronger Friday but still well below average on that bounce. There is price resistance at 80 as well as the 50 day MVA. Looking for it to fail there and roll back down. It is set up to fail if the market rolls back or the financials continue to suffer.
Volume: 4.582M Avg Volume: 5.58M
BUY POINT: $79.25 Volume=6M Target=$76 Stop=$80.35
POSITION: BAC WP - Nov. $80p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bac.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
SLM (SLM Corp.--$40.18; -0.14; optionable): Student loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Put. SLM spend another session below the 50 day MVA (40.63) and the 10 day MVA (40.44), showing a second doji below those levels on below average volume. It broke the 50 day MVA six sessions back and has made this low volume rebound to test that breakdown. Looking for a higher volume fall.
Volume: 785.1K Avg Volume: 1.393M
BUY POINT: New: From the close on rising volume (orig. $40.22) Volume=1.5M Target=$38.25 Stop=$40.88
POSITION: SLM VY - Oct. 41.625p (-76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. Trying to make the next breakout but needs volume.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03. Back over the short term MVA on below average volume, but a nice recovery.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings. Volume is improving as AVP tests the prior highs from July and August. Need to see it break thru on strong trade.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings.
CLE: Board meeting 9-4-03 may produce the split announcement. Still moving laterally after that strong surge.
COCO: No announcement with earnings. Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting. Still bouncing back.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Not doing much, still holding the 10 day MVA.
CPWM: Forecast 9-30 with a board meeting.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03 but a very solid move and still working higher.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Starting up again but no real volume. Letting positions work.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. Huge move Friday. Just letting it run.
FDS: Forecast 9-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03 with earnings. Still struggling to get over 29.
GDW: Forecast 9-18 with a board meeting. Nice recovery from below the 18 day MVA Friday.
HAR: Forecast 10-29 with earnings. Moving yet higher on this run.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Running higher up the 10 day MVA, surging again Friday.
KSWS: Forecast 10-28.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings. Looking ready to breakout from its flat, lateral 2 month move.
NDN: Forecast 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03.
PIXR: Forecast 9-5-03 in conjunction with the annual shareholders meeting at 10:00 a.m. PT..
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. Churned on some higher volume after surging higher Thursday.
SYK: Forecast 10-15. Still trying to get over some price resistance at 76.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings. Another strong, high volume move up.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$57.71; -0.25; no options): Employee planning, tracking systems. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. This date was a day after earnings were released. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. KRON is a continued market winner, and it has formed a short two month base showing very solid 3 to 1 accumulation. It used the 50 day MVA (53.61) as the support for the bottom of the base and has rallied nicely off of that level. Money flow is excellent as is relative strength. It has just made a higher low at the 18 day MVA (56), a precursor to a breakout move we are anticipating. This short base has formed right at the top of a much larger base that started January 2002. A breakout here puts KRON in excellent position.
Volume: 52.426K Avg Volume: 155.776K
BUY POINT: $60.62 Volume=248K Target=$70 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: - Stock (only Oct. options right now)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
NATI (National Instruments--$39.61; +0.23; optionable): Measurement and automation products. Forecast to announce a split on 10/20/03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-22-99 in conjunction with earnings at a stock price of $31.52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NATI has used the lateral move in the market the past two months to form a nice, neat 7 week base. It rallied up to 40 to complete the cup and then spent the past two weeks moving lower and laterally on below average volume to test the 50 day MVA (37.94) and form the handle where the last of the sellers are shaken out. It held the 50 day early in the week and started higher to close out the month. It needs some volume as it makes the breakout move that we think is coming this week.
Volume: 135.537K Avg Volume: 236.899K
BUY POINT: $40.37 Volume=386K Target=$48.45 Stop=$38.15
POSITION: SJQ LH - Dec. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/16/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$43.13; -0.23; optionable): Home furnishings. Forecast to announce a split on 9-24-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $39. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BBBY continues to work more or less laterally in the handle that has formed the past week on low, below average volume. Friday BBBY tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (42.31) and then rebounded. Good action in the handle to its 3 month cup base. Accumulation is 3 to 2. Just waiting for the breakout move on a strong volume surge.
Volume: 2.221M Avg Volume: 3.424M
BUY POINT: Breakout: $43.68 Volume=5.2M Target=$50 Stop=$39.28
POSITION: BHQ KH - Nov. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CPWM (Cost Plus World Market--$40.24; +0.09; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 9-30-03 with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-20-99 at a stock price of $47.The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwm.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CPWM has turned into a 7 week head and shoulders, edging up to the breakout point Friday and showing a tight doji at that level. It may come back to test 10 day MVA (39.07) before it makes the breakout. Money flow is strong, moving up ahead of the stock and relative strength is breaking out.
Volume: 230.345K Avg Volume: 257.913K
BUY POINT: $40.72 Volume=375K Target=$48 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: CUS KH - Nov. $40c (37 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cpwm.html
Play Date: 08/26/2003
FDS (Factset Research--$48.55; +0.06; optionable): Computer software information and delivery. Forecast to announce a split on 9-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 at a stock price of $69.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FDS continues the lateral, low volume move over the 10 day MVA (48.05). A very tight, narrow range, very good action in the handle to the 7 week base that used the 50 day MVA (45.15) as support. Strong money flow is solid and relative strength. Just waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 150.7K Avg Volume: 384.102K
BUY POINT: $49.59 Volume=600K Target=$59 Stop=$47
POSITION: FDS LJ - Dec. $50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fds.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$35.83; +0.49; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 stock split on 3-12-02 at a stock price of $34.76. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Flat base. A strong volume surge Thursday started NDN up toward the top of its 11 week flat base. Friday it was rallying again, right up to the prior resistance near 36, but volume was not there to show the buyers were overwhelming. As with DJ30 and SP500 it is ready to make the breakout attempt, but it will need volume to push it out of the range.
Volume: 160.8K Avg Volume: 502.326K
BUY POINT: New: $36.06 (want to see it over recent resistance as the volume has been low (orig. $35.12) Volume=800K Target=$42.25 Stop=$4.08
POSITION: NDN LG - Dec. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndn.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$38.35; +1.16; optionable): Retail auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings or on 11-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events. BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. ORLY is working through a 7 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. This is the tail end of a much larger 20 month base. ORLY has been showing volume spiked the past few weeks, and Friday it had another good one as it moves up toward the buy point. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. Looks ready to make the move this week.
Volume: 373.274K Avg Volume: 270.733K
BUY POINT: $38.44 Volume=350K Target=$46.05 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: OQR KG - Nov. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
End part 2 of 3
|
world stock market
us stock market
|
