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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: ASKJ; CMTL; CPTV; FDS; GS; JCOM; KSWS; MOBE; PTEK; RARE; SINA; UNTD; ZMH
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 09/02/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$17.19; +0.79; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CMVT is starting the breakout from a 2.5 month base. This is the second base following the October low. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is breaking out as well, a signal of the breakout strength. Want to see more volume on the breakout, but looks good here.
Volume: 3.161M Avg Volume: 2.979M
BUY POINT: $17.32 Volume=4M Target=$20.85 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: CQV AW - Jan. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
CRUS (Cirrus Logic--$6.01; +0.4; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crus.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CRUS is making the breakout from a nice 9 month base sporting excellent 10 to 5 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). It spent the last part of August pulling back to test the 18 day MVA (5.33) on lower volume to shake out the remaining sellers. It exploded higher Tuesday on an excellent volume surge. The move pushed it past the handle intraday highs (5.98), clearing that resistance. We are looking to move in on another move higher on volume.
Volume: 3.007M Avg Volume: 1.565M
BUY POINT: $6.22 Volume=2.3M Target=$7.78 Stop=$5.33
POSITION: CUQ LA - Dec. $5c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crus.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
SOHU (Sohu.com--$34.47; +4.55; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. SOHU was a huge winner for us on its run, but then topped in June and July and sold back to 30 where it held fast and moved laterally for the past 4 weeks. Tuesday money came pouring back into SOHU as it jumpe off 30 and through the 50 day MVA (32.07) and up to the simple 50 day MVA (34.40). We want to see SOHU break through some resistance at 35ish on strong volume and move in at that point.
Volume: 5.805M Avg Volume: 4.011M
BUY POINT: $35.12 Volume=5M Target=$41.88 Stop=$33.92
POSITION: UZK LG - Dec. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sohu.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/28/2003
DST (DST Systems--$40.15; +0.55; optionable): Information delivery software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started to make the breakout move Tuesday on rising volume, but the trade was not quite there as DST moved up to the buy point. Wanted the handle to form for another few sessions, but if it makes the breakout on volume we will move in. Accumulation in the 10 week base is an outstanding 4 to 0; it has been all steady accumulation as the stock has moved more or less laterally in the base. Money flow is excellent, breaking out as the stock moves laterally the past three sessions. Relative strength is excellent and ready to breakout as well.
Volume: 1.098M Avg Volume: 869.681K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=1.3M Target=$48 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: DST KH - Nov. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dst.html
Play Date: 08/20/2003
HYC (Hypercom--$5.08; +0.13; no options): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hyc.html
STATUS: Flat. Starting the breakout from its 5 month flat base on strong volume Tuesday. Money flow is leading higher and all we need to see is the break through the buy point on continued strong volume. Great volume Thursday and Tuesday. Looks ready.
Volume: 363.9K Avg Volume: 165.272K
BUY POINT: $5.21 Volume=225K Target=$6.55 Stop=$4.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hyc.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$34.11; -0.41; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle of its 7 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Tuesday it tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (33.47) and rebounded to recover most of the losses on rising though still below average volume. Nice handle shaking out the last sellers, and we anticipate a strong upside move over the next few sessions. Strong money flow and a relative strength ready to breakout.
Volume: 1.053M Avg Volume: 1.796M
BUY POINT: $35.32 Volume=2.7M Target=$42.38 Stop=$33.42
POSITION: IUY AG - Jan. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icst.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
MOBE (Mobility Electronics--$8.26; +0.76; no options): Power adaptors, etc. for mobile computing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mobe.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Breaking out of its 5 week base formed after a strong break higher in late May and a strong rally. Accumulation in the base is 2 to 0, money flow is strong, and relative strength broke out. Nice breakout and still a buy on this move as volume shot higher.
Volume: 1.421M Avg Volume: 526.727K
BUY POINT: New: $8.34 (orig. $8.04) Volume=781K Target=$10 Stop=$7.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mobe.html
Play Date: 08/25/2003
PLXT (PLX Technology--$5.5; 0; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plxt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of its 9 month base. Volume has been rising the past week, signaling a move up. Huge 13 to 2 accumulation and strong money flow. It is ripe for the breakout.
Volume: 118.078K Avg Volume: 233.136K
BUY POINT: $5.55 Volume=325K Target=$6.93 Stop=$4.98
POSITION: PIU AA - Jan. $5c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plxt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03. Doji after the recovery, but expecting it to hold up.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings.
CLE: Board meeting 9-4-03 may produce the split announcement. Still working higher on below average volume.
COCO: No announcement with earnings. Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and recovered. Holding up for now.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Up off the 50 day MVA on better volume. Starting to get there.
CPWM: Forecast 9-30 with a board meeting. Better volume on the move but not as strong as we want.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03 but a very solid move and still working higher. Moving laterally on lower volume.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Doji, taking a breather.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. Took a breather after the big move.
FDS: Forecast 9-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. Nice move on volume!
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03 with earnings. Volume was up as it tries the move over 29.
GDW: Forecast 9-18 with a board meeting. Up off the 18 day MVA on solid volume.
HAR: Forecast 10-29 with earnings. Doji. May be ready to take a breather toward 95.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Still moving up the 10 day MVA, and getting more volume.
KRON: Forecast 10-28-03 with earnings.
KSWS: Forecast 10-28. Nice volume move and we moved in.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03.
NDN: Forecast 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03.
PIXR: Forecast 9-5-03 in conjunction with the annual shareholders meeting at 10:00 a.m. PT.. Still moving higher. Got to be happy with this.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. Nice move on volume.
SYK: Forecast 10-15. Over 76 but no volume.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings. Tough session as it turned back from 68 after the huge days Thursday and Friday. A test of 62.50 and it may be ready to go again. It can run like the wind.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/02/2003
BLUD (Immucor--$25.68; +0.68; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Forecast to announce a split on 10-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-24-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-15-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting the breakout from its 8 month base on rising, above average volume. Accumulation is outstanding at 12 to 4 (12 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume). Very nice surge off the 18 day MVA (24) on above average volume. Looks solid.
Volume: 273.352K Avg Volume: 202.681K
BUY POINT: $25.88 Volume=304K Target=$31.12 Stop=$24.07
POSITION: QMQ LE - Dec. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$45.87; +2.04; optionable): Technical software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $87. It has announced prior to that in the $45 to $50 range, so it is in the game. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company had sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MERQ is making the breakout from a 12 week base showing strong 4 to 1 accumulation. Volume was strong and above average Tuesday, and we are looking for continued strong volume on a further move. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is making the breakout, a good sign of the strength of the move.
Volume: 3.69M Avg Volume: 3.103M
BUY POINT: $45.95 Volume=4.5M Target=$55 Stop=$42.73
POSITION: RQB AI - Jan. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/merq.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$65.1; +1; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Breakout. AVP undercut the 50 day MVA (62.44) last week and rallied back to resistance at 64. This was a continuation of its 2.5 month flat base. Often the quick test lower and recovery shakes out the last sellers, allowing the stock to make the breakout move. It looks to be doing just that with a storng volume surge Tuesday. Looking to start additional positions from here.
Volume: 1.611M Avg Volume: 1.058M
BUY POINT: New: $65.28 (orig. $64.78) Volume=1.7M Target=$74.5 Stop=$62.75
POSITION: AVP JL - Oct. $60c (89 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 08/16/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$43.08; -0.05; optionable): Home furnishings. Forecast to announce a split on 9-24-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $39. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the handle to its 3 month base, tapping the 10 day MVA on the Tuesday low (42.33) and rebounding to recoup most of the losses. Volume was up but still below average as it made the move back. Accumulation is solid at 3 to 2. BBBY is taking its time, and it looks ready to make the breakout move. Just need to be patient.
Volume: 2.69M Avg Volume: 3.451M
BUY POINT: Breakout: $43.68 Volume=5.2M Target=$50 Stop=$39.28
POSITION: BHQ KH - Nov. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$57.4; -0.31; no options): Employee planning, tracking systems. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. This date was a day after earnings were released. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very nice action in the handle, holding basically steady as volume starts higher. KRON continues its very nice two month base showing very solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is excellent as is relative strength. It has just made a higher low at the 18 day MVA (56), a precursor to a breakout move we are anticipating. Just being patient for the breakout.
Volume: 127.428K Avg Volume: 159.409K
BUY POINT: $60.62 Volume=248K Target=$70 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: - Stock (only Oct. options right now)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LM (Legg Mason--$72.97; +1.14; optionable): Investment brokerage. Forecast to announce a split 10-22-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Flat. After a nice lateral 2 month move with the major averages, LM is starting the breakout on a strong surge of above average volume. The financials, particularly investment related financials, are showing renewed life this week. LM is a market leader and looks ready to lead further. Strong money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 591.8K Avg Volume: 429.545K
BUY POINT: New: $73.25 (orig. $72.48) Volume=700K Target=$82 Stop=$70.45
POSITION: LM KN - Nov. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 08/23/2003
NATI (National Instruments--$40.24; +0.63; optionable): Measurement and automation products. Forecast to announce a split on 10/20/03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-22-99 in conjunction with earnings at a stock price of $31.52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After testing the 50 day MVA (38.03) last week, NATI is trying to make the breakout move but volume is not there. A very nice 7 week base, using that 50 day MVA as support in the handle.
Volume: 185.425K Avg Volume: 236.318K
BUY POINT: $40.37 Volume=386K Target=$48.45 Stop=$38.15
POSITION: SJQ LH - Dec. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
XRAY (Dentsply--$44.22; +0.47; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume jumped up Friday to average as XRAY moved laterally again in its 7 week flat base over the 50 day MVA (42.27). This short base follows the breakout from a 9 month base in July. Money flow is moving up ahead of price as it moves laterally. Being patient with it, but the good volume surge is getting us ready to move in if it makes the break.
Volume: 419.672K Avg Volume: 431.318K
BUY POINT: $44.65 Volume=625K Target=$53.55 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: XEQ AI - Jan. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 08/21/2003
SNPS (Synopsis--$68.48; +0.27; optionable): Technical software. Splits 2:1 on 9-24
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Very nice test of the 10 day MVA (67.53) on the Tuesday low and then rebounding on rising though still just below average volume. This is a nice laterally move on lower volume, a good rest for the stock after the move up off of 65. Now we just wait for it to break higher on a strong volume surge. Super money flow and relative strength ready to breakout again.
Volume: 1.044M Avg Volume: 1.373M
BUY POINT: $69.60 Volume=2.5M Target=$77.75 Stop=$66.28
POSITION: YPQ LN - Dec. $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snps.html
POST-SPLITS
Play Date: 08/30/2003
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$25.85; +1.54; optionable): Telecom equipment. Split 3:2 on 7-15-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CMTL is making the breakout from its nice 7 week base that started formed right before the split. Accumulation in the short base is positive at 2 to 1, money flow is strong, and relative strength has broken out on this move. It was a buy Tuesday, and it is still in good shape to buy here on a further move.
Volume: 727.065K Avg Volume: 498.545K
BUY POINT: New: $26.22 (orig. $25.48) Volume=600K Target=$30.55 Stop=$23.42
POSITION: CQH AE - Jan. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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