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Begin part 3 of 3
Again we apologize for the delay tonight. The power outages and cable outages caused by some powerful storms held us back.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: ANAD; ASKJ; BHE; CELL; PLXS; XLNX; DHR; ERICY
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 09/04/2003
DSCO (Discovery Labs--$7.95; +0.75; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsco.html
STATUS: Flat base. As noted, while techs have been moving higher, biotechs have been completing their bases. DSCO looks ready to make a breakout from its 2 month base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). The past three weeks it has traded in a narrow, tight range on low volume, holding just above the 50 day MVA (7.00). Strong money flow is leading the price higher, and relative strength is ready to breakout in support of the price move.
Volume: 996.7K Avg Volume: 495K
BUY POINT: $8.14 Volume=742K Target=$10.18 Stop=$7.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dsco.html
Play Date: 09/04/2003
HGSI (Human Genome Sciences--$15.51; +0.56; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Cup. HGSI is starting to run up to form the right side of a 3 month base, blasting higher Thursday as volume shot up well above average. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 5 to 2 just as HGSI starts up the right side of its base. It could form a handle at the 17 level, but we like how this sector is starting to move well and are looking at starting positions here and adding later on a further breakout from any handle or over the left side of the base.
Volume: 3.911M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $16.06 Volume=3M Target=$19.28 Stop=$14.48
POSITION: HQI AC - Jan. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hgsi.html
Play Date: 09/04/2003
NTN (NTN Communications--$2.63; -0.06; no options): Broadcast TV
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntn.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NTN has made us money before, and it looks ready to make another move now as it tests the breakout from a short 6 week cup w/handle base. It formed this base following the April breakout from a year long cup base. Accumulation in this short pattern is a strong 3 to 1, and relative strength broke out with the stock Wednesday as NTN rallied on strong volume. Money flow is excellent as well. After this test of the July high at 2.60 on the Thursday low, we look for NTN to maybe test a bit lower intraday and then rebound. That is where we move in.
Volume: 156.8K Avg Volume: 130K
BUY POINT: $2.75 Volume=195K Target=$3.55 Stop=$2.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntn.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/30/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$33.67; +0.59; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ICST continues to form the handle to its 7 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). It has fallen on lower volume to test the 18 day MVA (32.85) and then started higher Thursday on stronger trade. Looks solid, but need to see the breakout on strong volume.
Volume: 1.228M Avg Volume: 1.646M
BUY POINT: $35.32 Volume=2.7M Target=$42.38 Stop=$33.42
POSITION: IUY AG - Jan. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icst.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$41.28; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MRVL gapped higher two weeks back, rallied, and is now testing that move. Thursday it showed a very tight doji with a tail over the 10 day MVA (40.89) as volume started to move higher. On the low it tapped at the highs on the left side of the 2 month cup base and rebounded. Strong money flow to match the accumulation, and it looks as if MRVL is ready for more upside.
Volume: 2.64M Avg Volume: 3.153M
BUY POINT: New: $42.06 (orig. $38.50) Volume=4.9M Target=New positions: 49.50 (orig. positions $46) Stop=$39.88
POSITION: UVM KG - Nov. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
MYL (Mylan Labs--$36.2; 0; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MYL is forming the handle to the base it never formed before breaking out two weeks back. It has come back and held the 10 day MVA (36.12) in a very tight, narrow range. Money flow continues to rise as the stock moves laterally, a very positive sign. Tight doji on the 10 day Thursday as volume moved back up above average. Looks ready.
Volume: 1.468M Avg Volume: 1.399M
BUY POINT: $36.71 Volume=1.5M Target=$43.74 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: MYL AG - Jan $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/myl.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$41.1; +0.73; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QCOM broke higher a week back on very strong trade, breaking from a 2 month double bottom with handle. It has come back to test the breakout, holding at 40 on the lows the past two sessions, right at the highs of the left side of the base. As QCOM started higher again Thursday volume rose further above average. Strong money flow along with solid accumulation in the short base. Looks ready to continue the move. For new positions we will let it clear the recent highs.
Volume: 12.701M Avg Volume: 25.655M
BUY POINT: New: $48.86 (orig. $40.52) Volume=12M Target=$48.65 Stop=$39.62
POSITION: AAW AH - Jan. $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 08/18/2003
SINA (Sina.com--$34.04; +1.27; optionable): China internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Cup. SINA is in the process of forming a 6 week cup, testing its recent move over the 18 day MVA (31.75) and rebounding Thursday. Looks ready to make the next move toward the top of the base at 38 where it may form a handle, and we will look at adding some positions as it clears the recent highs.
Volume: 7.673M Avg Volume: 7.781M
BUY POINT: New: $34.76 (orig. $32.20). Volume=10M Target=$38.25 Stop=$31.22
POSITION: NOQ LF - Dec. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sina.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
SOHU (Sohu.com--$35.06; +1.01; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. SOHU was on the move Wednesday but then fell back to close. Thursday it was moving again, clearing the simple 50 day MVA (34.72) on the close. Volume was back below average, but if SOHU can clear the recent highs on volume it is ready to resum the move up toward 42.
Volume: 3.918M Avg Volume: 4.06M
BUY POINT: New: $36.38 (orig. $35.12) Volume=5M Target=$41.88 Stop=$33.92
POSITION: UZK LG - Dec. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sohu.html
Play Date: 07/28/2003
XOMA (Xoma LTD--$9.08; -0.02; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xoma.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong break higher in mid-August that continued the breakout from its June and July base, XOMA is making a nice, orderly pullback to test the 18 day MVA (8.96), showing a very tight doji at that level Thursday as volume rose back above average. Biotechs are forming up well, and XOMA is giving us the next entry point.
Volume: 1.498M Avg Volume: 1.143M
BUY POINT: New: $9.38 (orig. $8.35) Volume=1.5M Target=New positions: 11.85 (orig. $10.24) Stop=$8.93
POSITION: MBU KU - Nov. $7.50c (45 delta) &/or Stock)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xoma.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. Nice volume break higher as ACV runs higher.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings. Gave back some of the move but still a solid breakout.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings. Gapped down to the 18 day MVA on the retail sales news. Needs to bounce here.
BLUD: Forecast to announce a split on 10-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
CLE: Board meeting 9-4-03 may produce the split announcement. No split announcement with the board meeting as CLE continues higher.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Volume continues to improve and COLM may be ready next week.
CPWM: Forecast 9-30 with a board meeting. Sold back to test the 18 day MVA.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03 but a very solid move and still working higher. Testing the nice breakout.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. And now moving back up!
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. Moving laterally, holding the nice breakout gains.
FDS: Forecast 9-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. Gave some of the move back. Looks to test 50 before resuming.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03 with earnings. Tight lateral move over the 10 day MVA at 28. Looks ready for the next move.
GDW: Forecast 9-18 with a board meeting. Moving laterally over the 10 day MVA.
HAR: Forecast 10-29 with earnings. Continues its strong move higher though running out of some gas.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Showing a doji after the strong move Wednesday. May need to come back some to test.
KRON: Forecast 10-28-03 with earnings.
KSWS: Forecast 10-28. Edging back on very low volume to test the breakout.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings. Volume has swelled as LM edges higher.
MERQ: Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03. Just has not shown the breakaway volume yet.
NDN: Forecast 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings. Testing back toward the 50 day MVA at 34 on rising volume.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03. Huge volume but all over the map. Was too wild for us to move into on Thursday.
PIXR: Forecast 9-5-03 in conjunction with the annual shareholders meeting at 10:00 a.m. PT.. Moving laterally after the strong move.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. Back down to the 10 day MVA on strong volume on the retail sales numbers.
SYK: Forecast 10-15. Holding the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Needs to make its move here.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$64.19; +0.45; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-18-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $51. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Flat base. APOL is moving through a 2 month flat trading range from 61 to 66, moving laterally on mostly lower volume. It tested down to support at 60 last week and then rallied back on some strong volume after a stir in the sector when COCO did not blow out earnings more than it did. APOL is now resting on the 18 day MVA (63.61), looking to make a higher low here. If it does that is a very good sign. Strong money flow continues.
Volume: 1.648M Avg Volume: 1.982M
BUY POINT: $65.88 Volume=2M Target=$75.45 Stop=$63.35
POSITION: OAQ KL - Nov. $60c (72 delta) or OAQ KM - Nov. $65c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 08/27/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$57.85; +0.09; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 with earnings or at the 11-20 shareholder meeting. Trying to pinpoint which one.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. COCO is moving laterally after surging off the 50 day MVA last week after it tested to that level when earnings were not as huge as some hoped. It recovered well and is now moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (57.04) in a flat, tight range on below average volume. A good lateral move that is holding the gain. Looking for a strong move higher over the recent tops on a return to above average volume.
Volume: 527.294K Avg Volume: 712.363K
BUY POINT: New: 58.48 (orig. $56.95) Volume=1M Target=$65.55 Stop=$55.72
POSITION: UCS KK - Nov. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$28.55; +0.19; optionable): Watches and other fashion accessories. Forecast to announce a split on 11-11-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Test breakout. FOSL is moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (28.15), tapping that level on the lows and always closing above it. A nice, lateral three week move, and we are looking for positions on a clean break higher on very strong trade. Solid money flow and relative strength is ready for the breakout.
Volume: 147.621K Avg Volume: 275.818K
BUY POINT: New: 29.12 (orig. $27.58) Volume=362K Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.38
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$57.4; -0.31; no options): Employee planning, tracking systems. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. This date was a day after earnings were released. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very nice action in the handle, holding basically steady as volume starts higher. KRON continues its very nice two month base showing very solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is excellent as is relative strength. It has just made a higher low at the 18 day MVA (56), a precursor to a breakout move we are anticipating. Just being patient for the breakout.
Volume: 127.428K Avg Volume: 159.409K
BUY POINT: $60.62 Volume=248K Target=$70 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: - Stock (only Oct. options right now)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$65.15; +0.24; optionable): Online education. Forecast to announce a split on 9-22-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. UOPX keeps surging higher, blasting off last Thursday on excellent volume and now drifting back this week on lower trade. Thursday it tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (63.61) and then rebounded for a slight gain on a solid jump in above average volume. As we have noted before, UOPX can fly like the wind as it did last week, and it looks ready again. If nothing else this is a new entry point for the split play and an option play for the next 10 point run.
Volume: 286.903K Avg Volume: 232.59K
BUY POINT: New: 65.75 (orig. $61.78) Volume=300K Target=$74 Stop=$63.25
POSITION: UBY LM - Dec. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
XRAY (Dentsply--$43.9; -0.07; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still in a nice lateral move, holding the 10 day MVA (43.64) on the lows this week on mostly below average volume. Very good action in the 7 week flat base. Money flow continues to work higher ahead of price and XRAY showed a nice, tight doji Thursday. It is ready; we are just being patient and waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 240.115K Avg Volume: 425K
BUY POINT: $44.65 Volume=625K Target=$53.55 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: XEQ AI - Jan. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-SPLITS
Play Date: 08/21/2003
SNPS (Synopsis--$68.95; +0.57; optionable): Technical software. Splits 2:1 on 9-24
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SNPS continues to move laterally over the 10 day MVA (67.91), holding that level on the intraday lows. It looks as if it is gathering its strength here to try another move. This is another stock that can run like the wind.
Volume: 764.059K Avg Volume: 1.294M
BUY POINT: $69.60 Volume=2.5M Target=$77.75 Stop=$66.28
POSITION: YPQ LN - Dec. $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snps.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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