stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 2 of 2

Support and Resistance

Nasdaq: Closed at 1858.24
Resistance: 1860 to 1865 is not relinquishing. Then 1930 - 1935.
Support: The August high 1812 and 1814. 1818 (10 day MVA) and 1776. The 18 day MVA (1788). 1760 (May 2002) is some support down to 1740. The exponential 50 day MVA (1723).

S&P 500: Closed at 1021.39
Resistance: 1050.
Support: The June intraday high at 1015. June closing high at 1011. The 10 day MVA (1012) and the 18 day MVA (1005). The exponential 50 day MVA (991) and 975 (December 1997 peak). 965 (August 2002 peak). 951 (late May high) to the mid-May high (948).

Dow: Closed at 9503.34
Resistance: 9735.
Support: 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the recent range. 9361 the July intraday high down to 9353. The 10 day MVA (9459). The 18 day MVA (9401). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high. The exponential 50 day MVA (9238).

Economic Calendar

9-8-03
Consumer credit, July (3:00): $5.0B expected -$0.4B June.

9-9-03
Wholesale inventories, July (10:00): 0.0% expected, 0.0% June.

911-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 395K expected, 413K prior.
Trade balance, July (8:30): -$40.5B expected, -$39.5B June.

9-12-03
PPI, August (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.1% July.
Core PPI: 0.1% expected, 0.2% July.
Retail sales, August (8:30): 1.2% expected, 1.4% July.
Retail ex-Autos (8:30): 0.7% expected, 0.8% July.
Michigan sentiment, September (9:45): 92.0 expected, 89.3 August.

SEMINARS ON CD

http://www.stockseminarsonline.com

This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.

THE PLAYS

Good movers Friday: AGRB; NSM; NVAX; ONNN; TQNT; AVNX

Thursday night play results:
DCLK: Could not continue the breakout Friday, but still in good shape.
SAPE: Good volume break, but closed off of the high so though we would wait until this week.
SINA: Looks ready to start anew, resting under 35.
YHOO: Big surge but could not hold it all. Still looks ready.

New Plays for Monday:

Upside:

Play Date: 09/06/2003
AUDC (Audiocodes--$7.01; +0.11; no options): Systems & hardware for information transfer over packet networks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/audc.html
STATUS: Cup. AUDC is moving through an 8-week cup base, starting up to form the right side of the base last week. Thursday it took a breather and then resumed the upward move Friday though on below average volume. It may have formed the worlds shortest handle Thursday, but that would be a stretch. Accumulation in the base is stellar 4 to 0 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to make a breakout, a good sign of underlying strength on a breakout. On a strong volume surge as it moves through the buy point we will move in.
Volume: 159.03K Avg Volume: 307.136K
BUY POINT: $7.16 Volume=461K Target=$9 Stop=$6.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/audc.html

Play Date: 09/06/2003
SKYW (Skywest--$19.09; -0.24; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skyw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Airlines are very strong, forming good patterns and preparing to breakout, a sign of the alternative pent up demand we discussed last week as Americans decide to say what the heck and get back to seeing the country via the air. SKYW is working on the handle to its 9 week base, the tail end of the pattern where the final sellers are shaken out, frustrated the stock has stalled back at the prior high. When they are gone the stock can make the breakout. Accumulation is a strong 3 to 0 on the base, money flow is strong, price/volume action is solid, and relative strength is ready to breakout. It may take a few more sessions to form the handle, but it could go off at anytime.
Volume: 398.923K Avg Volume: 526.09K
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=789K Target=$24.12 Stop=$18.54
POSITION: UWQ AD - Jan. $20c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/skyw.html

Play Date: 09/06/2003
SMTC (Semtech--$21.48; +0.95; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smtc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SMTC is testing the 10 day MVA (20.23) after the nice breakout two weeks back from its 3 month double bottom base. It tested that move quickly, rallied to 22, and is now making the first test of the short term MVA. Strong stocks that breakout typically make 4 to 5 bounces off of their 10 or 18 day MVA after that first test, and this first test makes a a good entry point. Friday SMCT jumped off the 10 day on continued above average volume after holding that level Thursday with a doji and a volume surge. Looks ready to continue the move and we want to get on board at this solid entry point.
Volume: 1.801M Avg Volume: 1.429M
BUY POINT: $21.94 Volume=2M Target=$26.32 Stop=$20.21
POSITION: QTU LD - Dec. $20c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/smtc.html

Continuing plays that look ready:

Play Date: 08/04/2003
ADI (Analog Devices--$41.78; +0.63; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ADI looks quite solid here, moving laterally over the 10 and 18 day MVA (40.81, 40.07) after breaking from a 2.5 month base in late August. Strong money flow and relative strength that broke out and is looking to do so again. Friday ADI bounced up off the 10 day on a very strong volume surge. It could not make the punch through the Tuesday high, but it looks solid along with many of the chips.
Volume: 4.364M Avg Volume: 3.648M
BUY POINT: $40.43 Volume=5M Target=$47.65 Stop=$39.98
POSITION: ADI LH - Dec. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adi.html

* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.

AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI

AVID 08/09 Test 18 52.43 +0.14 0 0 688K 0 0
AVID is edging up through resistance at 50, not putting together a strong move but rising on volume that is moved up above average the past week. Friday it reversed off of its high (53.68) to close flat. We would like to see it test 50 and then blast higher on stronger volume. That is our entry point.

* * *

CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:

LEGEND

DATE: date play first appeared on report.

PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);

PIVOT=Buy point

Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.

Vol=Volume for the most recent session.

TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.

Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.

Continuing plays that look ready: APCC; BLI; LNUX; NTOP; SAPE; SINA; YHOO

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

ADI 08/04 Cup 41.78 +0.63 40.43 47.65 4.4M 5M 39.98
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA to continue to move up for a nice gain on higher, above average volume.

AGRB 08/28 Rv H&S 3.4 +0.41 3.02 3.95 6.7M 6.7M 2.82
Great move up on strong volume.

AMSC 08/19 Test BO 13.3 +0.06 12.08 14.48 325K 900K 11.68
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.

AMZN 05/03 BO 46.52 -0.77 30.3 35.45 8.1M 12M 44.55
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound but still close lower on lower volume.

ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.85 +0.16 3.43 4.22 160K 350K 3.35
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.

APCC 08/27 Test BO 18.42 +0.01 18.12 21.88 1.9M 1.8M 17.25
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA to rebound and close fractionally higher on lower, but above average volume.

ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.5 -0.15 2.26 2.72 1.2M 1M 2.29
Current. Pull back on lower, but above average volume.

ASPT 08/09 Test BO 9.02 -0.14 8.06 10.12 310K 791K 8.28
Current. Pull back to form a tight doji on very low volume. Still in uptrend.

AVID 08/09 Test 18 52.43 +0.14 0 0 688K 0 0

AVNX 09/03 Cup hdl 5.94 +0.57 5.74 6.65 3.1M 1M 5.05
Current. Entered the play with an explosive move up with stronger volume.

AVNX 08/14 Flat 5.94 +0.57 4.68 5.92 3.1M 2M 5.05
Current.

BDY 07/16 Test BO 26.1 -0.83 19.58 23.25 207K 376K 24.52
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close down but above the 10 day MVA on low volume.

BEAS 08/04 Cup hdl 14.35 -0.42 14.38 17.05 16M 16M 13.72
Current. Gapped down at the open and then tested the 10 day MVA and rallied to form a tight doji on higher, but above average volume.

BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 14.35 -0.42 13.37 16.22 16M 16M 13.72
Current.

BEV 07/26 Test BO 6.37 -0.18 5.54 6.94 675K 1.4M 6.21
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA to rebound and close just below the 10 day MVA on slightly lower volume.

BLI 08/14 Cup hdl 18 -0.14 17.18 20.38 552K 750K 17.78
Current. Held at the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but above average volume.

CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.68 +0.15 3.22 4.05 663K 822K 3.34
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA to move up on higher, but still below average volume.

CMVT 09/02 Rv H&S 17.73 -0.13 17.92 21.42 3M 4M 16.51
Current. Volatile day tapping 18.09 at the day's high and 17.38 at the day's low. Closed forming a tight doji on lower volume.

COLT 07/24 BO 6.52 +0.07 5.3 6.68 106K 200K 6.18
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA to close on the 10 day MVA on lower, but above average volume.

CRDS 08/26 A Wedge 2.89 -0.16 2.18 3 343K 186K 2.56
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rally on close lower on much lower volume.

DCEL 08/21 Flat 9.01 +0.17 7.75 9.68 561K 800K 8
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close higher on slightly higher, but below average volume.

DCLK 09/04 BO 12.2 -0.36 12.68 15.22 3.2M 2.2M 11.72
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close down on slightly lower volume. Tapped 12.80 at the day's high but could not hold the gain.

DIS 08/09 Test 50 21.19 -0.27 22.06 26.48 7.5M 9M 21.12

DKS 03/18 DB hdl 35.69 -0.35 23.81 28.42 409K 225K 34.94
Current. Tested the exponential 50 day MVA but could not hold the gain on lower volume.

DKS 02/19 DB hdl 35.69 -0.35 22.75 27.35 409K 225K 34.94
Current.

DRIV 08/25 Cup hdl 28.75 -0.05 25.75 30.25 671K 1.7M 25.81
Current. Fractional pull back on slightly higher volume.

DRIV 08/06 Test 50 28.75 -0.05 24.18 27.48 671K 1.7M 25.81
Current.

DRL 08/23 Put 42.6 +0.1 40.9 38 516K 500K 41.88
Current. Tapped exponential 50 day MVA but could not hold the gain to close slightly under the 50 day MVA on lower volume.

EBAY 12/12 Test 18 52.85 -0.77 34.72 46 9.2M 12M 53.02
Current. Tested below the exponential 50 day MVA to rebound and close under the 18 day MVA on lower volume.

EBAY 10/15 Test 50 52.85 -0.77 31.22 46 9.2M 12M 53.02
Current.

EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.61 -0.01 1.88 2.45 456K 210K 2.41
Current. Gapped up at the open to close fractionally down on slightly higher volume.

GTRC 08/09 Test 18 33.95 -0.95 33.4 41.48 546K 700K 33.02
Current. Pull back to hold just above the 10 day MVA on slightly higher volume.

HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.76 +0.01 6.07 7.28 1.4M 1.7M 6.28
Current. Tapped 6.65 at the day's low to rebound and close fractionally higher on higher volume. Tapped 6.90 at the day's high but could not hold the gain. Needs to break resistance at 6.80 on higher volume.

INFA 08/23 Test BO 8.76 -0.23 8.22 9.95 717K 1.1M 7.92
Buy Not Issued. Tested below the 10 day MVA to rebound and hold slightly above the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume.

INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 28.71 +0.11 25.88 30.95 68M 75M 27.14
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close higher on higher, above average volume.

IUSA 08/19 Flat 9.54 +0.07 9.54 11.48 510K 283K 8.86
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on much higher volume. If stock continues the move with strong volume will enter the play. Tapped 9.75 but could not hold the gain.

JNPR 08/20 Flat 17.4 -0.6 15.45 18.68 15M 15M 16.81
Current. Pull back on higher, above average volume. Still closed well above the 10 day MVA.

KKD 08/09 Cup hdl 42.06 -0.7 45.08 54.25 1M 1M 45.98
Current. Moved down on slightly higher volume. Holding support at 42 and waiting for a bounce from here to exit the play.

KYPH 08/30 Test 18 24.18 -0.81 24.42 29.45 448K 511K 23.44
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA to rebound and close slightly above the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.

LNUX 08/30 Test BO 3.67 +0.17 3.47 4.55 1.6M 3M 3.18
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on higher volume. Have not entered the play because the volume is not there.

LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.8 -0.77 29.06 35 489K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Issued. Pull back to hold at the 18 day MVA on lower volume.

MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 26.84 -0.05 22.25 27.95 237K 488K 25.15
Current. Fractional pull back on lower volume.

MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 26.84 -0.05 22.8 27.95 237K 488K 25.15
Current.

MLHR 08/09 Test BO 23.94 +0.42 22.95 27.42 239K 325K 23.18
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA to rally and close higher on much higher volume. Looks ready to break 24 resistance.

MPS 08/16 Cup hdl 9.91 +0.15 9.75 11.68 786K 677K 9.07
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA to rebound and close higher on much higher volume. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA and may now be ready to make a real move.

MROI 08/27 Cup hdl 14.4 +0.01 14.3 17.15 146K 163K 13.38
Current. Moved up slightly on lower volume.

MRVC 09/03 Cup 2.83 -0.03 2.65 3.68 2.3M 1M 2.56
Current. Tapped 2.62 at the day's low to rebound and close fractionally down forming a doji on lower, but still above average volume. Managed to hold most of yesterday's gain.

NEOF 08/25 Rv H&S 16.4 +0.21 14.22 16.97 471K 106K 14.96
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.

NSM 08/30 Test BO 33.32 +1.33 29.95 35.35 16M 5M 31.55
Current. Another strong move up on excellent volume.

NTOP 08/20 A Wedge 5.77 +0.05 5.9 7 488K 300K 5.46
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA to rebound and close above the 10 day MVA on much stronger volume. Looks ready to start again.

NVAX 09/03 DB hdl 6.75 +0.46 6.75 8.39 527K 302K 6.08
Current. Entered the play as the stock shot up on volume surge.

OCR 08/09 Test 50 33.32 -0.78 0 0 911K 0 0

ONNN 06/21 Test BO 5.28 +0.58 3 3.75 3.2M 900K 4.72
Current. Exploded higher on excellent volume surge.

ONT 09/02 Test 50 2.86 +0.02 2.92 4 985K 1.6M 2.72
Buy Not Issued. Fractionally higher forming a tight doji on lower volume.

PCOR 08/13 Cup hdl 2.3 +0.02 2.46 3.12 47K 225K 2.18
Buy Not Hit. Moved up on slightly higher, but still well below average volume.

PLL 08/25 Cup hdl 23.76 -1.99 25.25 29.75 2.3M 800K 24.12
Exited. Reversed the breakout on strong volume so we closed it.

QCOM 08/21 DB hdl 41.21 +0.11 40.52 48.65 13M 12M 39.62
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on higher volume.

QRSI 08/20 Cup hdl 9.1 -0.01 8.6 10.72 65K 184K 8.55
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close fractionally lower on very low volume. Tapped 9.46 at the day's high but could not hold the gain.

SAPE 09/04 Cup hdl 3.8 +0.2 3.78 4.75 1.7M 1.1M 3.39
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound to close higher on higher, above average volume. Tapped 3.98 at the day's high but could not hold the entire gain.

SBUX 07/30 Cup 28.81 -0.38 27.55 33 3.2M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.

SBUX 07/01 Cup 28.81 -0.38 26.3 30.94 3.2M 6M 27.94
Current. Pull back on slightly lower volume.

SINA 08/18 Test 50 34.32 +0.28 32.2 38.25 7.7M 10M 31.88
Current. Moved up on slightly lower volume. Needs to break 35 on strong volume to continue the move up.

SPIL 08/21 Test BO 4.35 +0.03 4.33 5.41 331K 904K 4.22
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and hold above the 10 day MVA on lower volume.

SPRT 08/28 A Wedge 8.84 -0.2 9.18 11.25 366K 910K 8.15
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA to rally and close slightly down, but above the 10 day MVA on higher, but still well below average volume.

SSYS 09/02 BO 44.15 -1.2 47 56 413K 629K 42.68
Current. Pull back on lower but average volume.

TGT 08/09 Flat 40.01 -0.74 41.45 50 3.6M 5.7M 39.28
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA to rebound and close just below the 10 day MVA on slightly lower volume.

TQNT 08/27 A Wedge 5.97 +0.24 5.27 6.58 4.2M 2.2M 5.32
Current. Great move up on much higher volume.

TSCO 07/29 Test BO 34.77 -0.43 28.06 31.44 434K 494K 32.42
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close lower on lower volume. Still holding above the 10 day MVA.

TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 34.77 -0.43 23.42 27.62 434K 603K 32.42
Current.

TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 34.77 -0.43 21.88 26 434K 603K 32.42
Current.

TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 34.77 -0.43 19.3 22.19 434K 577K 32.42
Current.

TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.23 -0.16 7.7 9.45 195K 200K 7.22
Current. Gapped up at the open, but could not hold the gain to close below the 18 day MVA on much higher volume.

UNTD 07/12 Test BO 38.61 -1.59 28.8 34.12 1.6M 2.1M 36.32
Current. Moved down on much higher volume to close just above the 10 day MVA.

UNTD 05/29 Flat 38.61 -1.59 23.45 28 1.6M 2M 36.32
Current.

VRTS 08/19 CCall 35.32 -0.62 19.76 20 7.1M 8.5M 33.38
Current. Pull back on higher volume. Still holding above the 10 day MVA.

VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.85 +0.03 16.95 20.45 115K 250K 16.48
Current. Volatile session with 17.20 for the day's high and 16.46 at the day's low. Closed slightly above the 10 day MVA on higher but below average volume.

WEBX 08/26 Cup hdl 19.29 -0.04 18.55 22.25 806K 1.5M 18.22
Current. Fractional pull back on very low volume.

YHOO 09/04 Rv H&S 34.89 +0.06 34.9 42 17M 20M 32.46
Current. Continue to move up on higher volume. Tapped 35.95 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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