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stock option, stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
9-8-03
Consumer credit, July (3:00): $5.0B expected -$0.4B June.
9-9-03
Wholesale inventories, July (10:00): 0.0% expected, 0.0% June.
911-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 395K expected, 413K prior.
Trade balance, July (8:30): -$40.5B expected, -$39.5B June.
9-12-03
PPI, August (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.1% July.
Core PPI: 0.1% expected, 0.2% July.
Retail sales, August (8:30): 1.2% expected, 1.4% July.
Retail ex-Autos (8:30): 0.7% expected, 0.8% July.
Michigan sentiment, September (9:45): 92.0 expected, 89.3 August.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: ATML; FFIV; ERICY; LIFC; MRVL; NFLX; NSM; NVAX; ONNN; STM; TSYS; TXN
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/06/2003
CBST (Cubist Pharmaceuticals--$13.51; +0.52; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbst.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. CBST is moving toward the breakout from its 11 week base showing excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). It is making a series of higher and higher lows as the top of the range holds near 13.75; the characteristic action that builds pressure from below. Breakouts can be explosive. Friday CBST was attempting the move on a big voluem blast, but it gave back much of the gain late in the sesion as the market stumbled. Just being patient and waiting for the next volume breakout move.
Volume: 1.055M Avg Volume: 459.09K
BUY POINT: $13.89 Volume=550K Target=$16.67 Stop=$12.88
POSITION: UTU AV - Jan. $12.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cbst.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
SFNT (Safenet--$38.33; -0.74; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Worms are digging through the internet and security software is enjoying the problems. SFNT has set up a base on base pattern, the first being a six month cup with handle that broke out in early July followed almost immediately but a 1.5 month triangle that broke out to start the month. It rallied up to 40 but is now coming back on nice, below average volume to test the move. Friday it tapped toward the 10 day MVA (37.19) on the low (37.50) and rebounded to recoup much of the loss. SFNT showed good 7 to 4 accumulation in the longer base and 2 to 0 accumulation in the second base. These base on base patterns do a very good job of getting rid of the sellers and typically set up much better moves heading forward. It may snug up a bit more toward the 10 day MVA before making the rebound move.
Volume: 187.547K Avg Volume: 352.227K
BUY POINT: $38.72 Volume=350K Target=$46.45 Stop=$37.15
POSITION: UUI LH - Dec. $40c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sfnt.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
SMTC (Semtech--$21.48; +0.95; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smtc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SMTC is testing the 10 day MVA (20.23) after the nice breakout two weeks back from its 3 month double bottom base. It tested that move quickly, rallied to 22, and is now making the first test of the short term MVA. Strong stocks that breakout typically make 4 to 5 bounces off of their 10 or 18 day MVA after that first test, and this first test makes a a good entry point. Friday SMCT jumped off the 10 day on continued above average volume after holding that level Thursday with a doji and a volume surge. Looks ready to continue the move and we want to get on board at this solid entry point.
Volume: 1.801M Avg Volume: 1.429M
BUY POINT: $21.94 Volume=2M Target=$26.32 Stop=$20.21
POSITION: QTU LD - Dec. $20c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smtc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/06/2003
TRB (Tribune Company--$45.52; -0.7; optionable): Newspapers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trb.html
STATUS: Put. The owner of the LA Times and Chicago Tribune is turning back down in its 4 month downtrend that started when it double topped in April and May. It has been more or less working down the 10 and 18 day MVA with occasional bumps up to the 50 day MVA (46.72) to test the air. After its latest rebound to the 18 day MVA (46.13), TRB moved laterally for three days and then dumped Friday on rising volume. Looks ready to make the move lower again, and it typically moves in $3 increments on each leg down. That is the move we are looking to capture here.
Volume: 949.6K Avg Volume: 1M
BUY POINT: $45.38 Volume=1M Target=$43 Stop=$46.28
POSITION: TRB WI - Nov. $45p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trb.html
Continuing plays that are ready:
Play Date: 09/02/2003
COGN (Cognos--$32.53; -0.62; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. COGN gapped higher Wednesday, exploding past the buy point on strong volume. It is now coming back to test the move and fill the gap, falling back on lower volume. We are looking for a test of 32 to finish the test. From there we want to see a bounce back up on rising volume for a successful test. Relative strength breakout, solid accumulation in the 2.5 month base.
Volume: 617.271K Avg Volume: 1.019M
BUY POINT: $32.02 Volume=1.2M Target=$38 Stop=$29.92
POSITION: CRQ BZ - Feb. $32.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cogn.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$34.42; +0.75; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice action, moving up off the 18 day MVA (33.02) late in the week on some rising volume. It is in the handle to a 7 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to make a breakout, a strong indication of breakout support. Being patient and looking for the breakout on strong trade.
Volume: 1.162M Avg Volume: 1.58M
BUY POINT: $35.32 Volume=2.7M Target=$42.38 Stop=$33.42
POSITION: IUY AG - Jan. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/icst.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
MOBE (Mobility Electronics--$8.1; +0.02; no options): Mobile computing peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mobe.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. This is a very pretty picture, one of our favorite entry points. MOBE blasted higher Tuesday on strong volume, carried higher Wednesday, but then tested the move late in the week. Volume dropped to below average on the test, and Friday the stock tapped toward the 10 day MVA (7.71) and rebounded to show a nice doji with tail that often indicates a rebound is coming. Nice test of the breakout and solid across the board with strong money flow, relative strength, and accumulation.
Volume: 530.14K Avg Volume: 540.954K
BUY POINT: $8.22 Volume=781K Target=$10.22 Stop=$7.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mobe.html
Play Date: 09/03/2003
ZGEN (Zymogenetics--$15.65; +0.8; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zgen.html
STATUS: Cup. Things got a bit rocky Thursday, but volume was lower and ZGEN recovered nicely Friday, rallying back on another voluem surge. That continues the solid price/volume action characterizing the 3 month base. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 6 to 1, a very good reading at this point. Money flow is super, leading higher even before the stock started to turn up. Again, it may form a handle near 17, but there is solid buying at this point and a good lead in to the play.
Volume: 143.877K Avg Volume: 66.545K
BUY POINT: $16.12 Volume=100K Target=$19.35 Stop=$14.78
POSITION: GZU KC - Nov. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zgen.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock option
stock market
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