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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: ANAD; CPTV; GILD; GPRO; HGSI; HYC; IMCL; KRON; MMSI; MYL; PRLS; STST; TXN; XLNX
On Monday and Wednesday we prepare full write-ups for choice plays that look ready to move. Complete discussions of the plays in the continuing plays table along with full reports issue Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 09/08/2003
ENCY (Encysive Pharma--$4.97; +0.57; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ency.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Biotechs continue to form up well, and Monday several were making the breakout moves. ENCY started to move out of a 9 week base on a solid volume surge. The base shows solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up a good foundation of buying for the breakout. Relative strength broke out as well, a good confirmation of the move. We looking for ENCY to continue the breakout move, following the surging money flow higher. We will move in on a continued rally higher through the buy point on more solid volume.
Volume: 264.35K Avg Volume: 204.818K
BUY POINT: $5.04 Volume=300K Target=$6.32 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ency.html
Play Date: 09/08/2003
OPLK (Oplink Communications--$1.92; +0.08; no options): Fiber optic subsystems to increase bandwidth
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oplk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. OPLK is making the breakout move from a 12 week base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. The past week volume has swelled to above average levels as it readied for the breakout, and Monday volume jumped as OPLK tapped the 10 day MVA (1.77) one more time and rallied sharply. A small stock but a solid pattern, and we are looking for another strong volume move through the buy point to enter.
Volume: 1.079M Avg Volume: 512.681K
BUY POINT: $1.98 Volume=769K Target=$2.58 Stop=$1.76
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/oplk.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/04/2003
HGSI (Human Genome Sciences--$16.15; +0.93; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Cup. If it was forming a handle it got tired of it and tried to make the breakout Monday with a nice price surge. Volume was up, but it was only average; needs more trade to really make the break higher. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 5 to 2 thus far in the pattern, a good sign. It could form a handle at 17, and if it does not get some more volume before then we will be inclined to let it form the handle first. Nice pattern and if the volume jumps we will open at leas a partial position.
Volume: 1.865M Avg Volume: 2.42M
BUY POINT: New: $16.32 (orig. $16.06) Volume=3M Target=$19.28 Stop=$14.48
POSITION: HQI AC - Jan. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hgsi.html
Play Date: 08/30/2003
MOBE (Mobility Electronics--$8.04; -0.06; no options): Mobile computing peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mobe.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a nice breakout test underway as MOBE holds over the 10 day MVA (7.77) with another tight doji. The doji is right over support at 8, and it can indicate a change in direction coming. Strong money flow, relative strength, and accumulation.
Volume: 594.043K Avg Volume: 540.954K
BUY POINT: $8.22 Volume=781K Target=$10.22 Stop=$7.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mobe.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$60.2; +1.48; no options): Employee planning, tracking systems. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. This date was a day after earnings were released. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was again above average Monday as KRON reached up the breakout point but could not hold it heading into the close. A very solid move, but we want to see the push through the breakout point and see it hold. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is excellent, and relative strength is ready to breakout. Looks ready.
Volume: 230.3K Avg Volume: 153.09K
BUY POINT: $60.62 Volume=248K Target=$70 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: - Stock (only Oct. options right now)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$64.21; -0.2; optionable): Online education. Forecast to announce a split on 9-22-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still in the very nice breakout test, showing a very tight doji right on top of the 10 day MVA (63.77) as it pulls back on below average volume. Strong, holding up very well as the education stocks, early leaders, take a short rest here. Looking for it to run higher on above average volume.
Volume: 179.764K Avg Volume: 235.5K
BUY POINT: New: 65.75 (orig. $61.78) Volume=300K Target=$74 Stop=$63.25
POSITION: UBY LM - Dec. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACV 08/04 Test 18 57.79 +0.04 58.45 67.45 130K 400K 56.58
Current.
ACV 07/19 BO 57.79 +0.04 54.8 65.85 130K 400K 56.58
Current.
AMT 08/16 Cup hdl 11.25 -0.02 10.64 12.77 1M 2.8M 10.76
Current.
ANAD 08/16 Cup hdl 5.46 +0.34 4.27 5.32 692K 625K 4.48
Current.
APOL 08/14 Test 50 63.16 +0.79 65.88 75.45 1.3M 2M 63.35
Current.
ASKJ 08/26 Rv H&S 20.27 +0.23 19.34 23.25 1.9M 3M 18.16
Current.
ATML 08/26 Cup hdl 4.96 +0.05 4.36 5.28 12M 10M 4.32
Current.
AVP 08/14 Test 50 65.95 +0.67 66.68 76.32 1M 1.7M 63.42
Current.
BAC 08/23 Put 76.98 +0.83 79.25 76 5.8M 6M 78
BBBY 08/16 Cup 41.35 +0.47 43.68 50 2.7M 5.2M 42.22
Buy Not Issued.
BHE 08/12 FlyPlat 47.71 +0.07 42.95 49 311K 550K 44.55
Current.
BKST 08/30 Test 18 28.56 +0.41 28.88 33.42 51K 90K 27.68
Current.
BLUD 09/02 Cup hdl 26 +0.04 25.88 31.12 93K 304K 24.07
Buy Not Issued.
CCMP 08/13 Cup hdl 66.7 -0.22 65.5 74.88 690K 1.2M 64.81
Current.
CECO 07/31 FlyPlat 44.2 +0.21 42.86 47.62 625K 1M 42.25
Current.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 44.2 +0.21 37.88 43.28 625K 1.2M 42.25
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 44.2 +0.21 31.28 36.73 625K 1M 42.25
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 26.95 +0.17 19.25 23.25 352K 225K 24.98
Current.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 3.47 -0.21 3.22 4.05 381K 822K 3.34
Current.
CHS 07/23 Test BO 31.91 +0.02 27.05 31.25 841K 2.2M 30.24
Current.
CMTL 08/30 Cup hdl 24.93 -0.09 26.28 31.38 313K 600K 23.42
Current.
CMVT 09/02 Rv H&S 17.79 +0.06 17.92 21.42 5.1M 4M 16.51
Current.
COCO 08/27 Test 50 55.41 -0.04 56.95 65.55 672K 1M 55.72
Exited.
COH 08/16 PreSplt 57.11 -0.29 55.32 63.75 898K 950K 56.31
Current.
COH 07/10 BO 57.11 -0.29 55.79 65 898K 1.4M 56.31
Current.
COLM 08/14 Flat 52.48 +0.58 54.12 64.95 113K 475K 51.85
Buy Not Hit.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 7.37 +0.36 6.5 8.12 192K 200K 6.5
Current.
CPWM 07/31 Test 50 39.41 +0.59 40.06 48 171K 375K 37.94
Buy Not Issued.
CRUS 09/02 Cup hdl 6.38 +0.09 6.41 8 1.6M 2.3M 5.65
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 21.38 -0.01 19.85 23.88 2.8M 2.9M 20.88
Current.
DHR 08/07 DB hdl 77.58 +1.03 74.63 85.75 662K 1.6M 75.78
Current.
DSCO 09/04 Flat 8.18 +0.03 8.14 10.18 356K 742K 7.42
Buy Not Issued.
DST 08/28 Cup hdl 40 0 40.15 48 770K 1.3M 37.68
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 52.29 -0.56 53.78 60 9.4M 9M 53.02
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 52.29 -0.56 40.04 46 9.4M 8M 53.02
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 9.99 +0.13 9.33 11.12 288K 400K 9.42
Current.
ERICY 08/11 Test 18 17.32 +0.19 14.82 17.74 4.2M 5M 15.55
Current.
ETN 05/31 Cup hdl 93.91 +0.39 86 100 521K 650K 91.32
Current.
FDS 08/26 DB hdl 49.59 -0.32 50.38 59.88 240K 600K 48.52
Current.
FOSL 08/09 Test BO 27.83 +0.18 27.58 32.95 131K 362K 27.38
Current.
GDW 08/09 A Wedge 87.48 +1.28 86.95 100 388K 923K 85.55
Current.
GILD 09/06 Flat 69.23 +2.37 69.09 80.62 3.3M 5M 65.68
Current.
GLDN 08/25 Test BO 30.61 +0.71 30.55 36.55 84K 200K 29.36
Buy Not Issued.
GLDN 08/19 Test BO 30.61 +0.71 30.4 36.48 84K 200K 29.72
Current.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 62.57 +3.06 41.75 48 594K 766K 58.92
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 62.57 +3.06 26.5 30.75 594K 521K 58.92
Current.
GS 08/18 Dbl btm 91.35 +0.39 90.12 100 4.1M 4M 89.12
Current.
HBIO 08/14 Test BO 6.05 -0.09 5.1 6.54 73K 153K 5.34
Current.
HDTV 08/21 Cup hdl 4.25 +0.06 4.12 5.12 56K 125K 3.93
Current.
HGSI 09/04 Cup 16.15 +0.93 16.06 19.28 1.8M 3M 14.48
Buy Not Hit.
HYC 08/20 Flat 5.51 +0.12 5.22 6.55 297K 225K 4.97
Current.
ICST 08/30 Cup hdl 35.63 +1.21 35.32 42.38 1.4M 2.7M 33.42
Buy Not Issued.
IMCL 09/06 A Wedge 48.13 +1.57 48.12 58.62 2.8M 3M 43.35
Current.
IT 08/09 Cup hdl 11.61 +0.16 10.13 12.95 242K 421K 10.74
Current.
JAH 09/06 Cup hdl 33.36 +0.11 33.72 40.45 121K 270K 32.12
New.
JBLU 07/26 BO 57.9 -1.72 46.32 55.64 1.7M 1.5M 55.65
Current.
JCOM 08/12 PreSplt 38 +2.42 25.98 29 1.4M 1.4M 32.55
Current.
JWN 08/04 Cup hdl 25.23 -0.26 22.48 27 856K 1.4M 25.22
Current.
KOOL 08/26 Flat 3.88 -0.02 3.67 4.48 215K 105K 3.58
Current.
KRON 08/28 Cup hdl 60.2 +1.48 60.62 70 228K 248K 56.55
Buy Not Issued.
KSWS 08/23 Cup hdl 39.3 -0.92 41.2 49.22 292K 284K 39.08
Current.
KSWS 07/12 Test 50 39.3 -0.92 37.85 44.95 292K 312K 39.08
Current.
LM 07/12 Test 18 73.86 +0.41 72.48 82 361K 700K 70.45
Buy Not Issued.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 73.86 +0.41 58.5 67.78 361K 610K 71.55
Current.
LPSN 08/21 Test 18 3.75 +0.08 3.22 4.05 716K 425K 2.99
Buy Not Issued.
MERQ 09/02 Rv H&S 49.36 -0.05 45.95 55 3.9M 4.5M 42.73
Buy Not Issued.
MMSI 08/05 Test BO 22.8 +1.59 20.44 24.33 506K 183K 20.76
Current.
MOBE 08/30 Cup hdl 8.04 -0.06 8.22 10.22 594K 781K 7.64
Current.
MROI 08/27 Cup hdl 14.28 -0.12 14.3 17.15 181K 163K 13.38
Current.
MRVL 09/04 Test BO 41.97 -0.56 42.63 49.5 3.7M 4.9M 39.86
Current.
MXIM 08/27 Test BO 43.75 +1.05 45.04 51.85 5.5M 9.5M 41.89
Buy Not Issued.
MYL 08/19 Rv H&S 37.48 +0.94 36.71 43.74 2M 1.5M 35.65
Current.
NATI 09/02 DB hdl 43.45 +0.68 40.48 48.45 148K 386K 38.74
Buy Not Issued.
NDN 08/02 DB hdl 33.76 -0.24 35.75 42.25 253K 800K 33.25
Buy Not Issued.
NTN 09/04 Test BO 2.76 +0.05 2.75 3.55 227K 195K 2.54
Current.
OLGC 09/03 DB hdl 5.1 +0.09 5.45 6.84 114K 207K 5.11
Buy Not Hit.
ORLY 08/19 Flat 38.57 +0.02 38.44 46.05 234K 350K 35.88
Buy Not Issued.
PIXR 08/19 Flat 73.7 +0.52 70.68 81 464K 1.1M 71.08
Current.
PLXS 08/19 Cup hdl 17.84 +0.39 16.12 19.38 544K 400K 16.38
Current.
PLXT 08/25 Cup hdl 5.7 +0.25 5.55 6.93 141K 325K 4.98
Buy Not Issued.
PRLS 08/11 A Wedge 3.53 +0.23 3.44 4.29 242K 110K 3.21
Current.
PTEK 08/26 Cup hdl 7.36 +0.07 6.74 8.65 479K 276K 6.95
Current.
QCOM 08/21 DB hdl 42.48 +1.27 40.52 48.65 10M 12M 39.62
Current.
RARE 08/18 BO 25.95 +0.4 25.15 28.85 185K 300K 24.88
Current.
SAFE 09/06 PreSplt 23.87 +0.27 23.75 26.75 64K 40K 22.25
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 28.99 +0.18 27.55 33 4.5M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 28.99 +0.18 26.3 30.94 4.5M 6M 27.94
Current.
SEAC 09/06 Cup 12.12 0 12.12 14.45 253K 345K 11.27
Buy Not Issued.
SFNT 09/06 Test BO 39.38 +1.05 38.72 46.45 95K 350K 37.15
Buy Not Issued.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 34.21 -0.11 32.2 38.25 5.5M 10M 31.88
Current.
SLM 08/23 Put 39.26 -0.78 40.35 38.25 3.6M 1.5M 40.88
SNPS 08/21 PreSplt 67.84 +0.09 69.6 77.75 1.1M 2.5M 66.28
Current.
SNWL 08/19 Test 50 6.71 +0.21 5.85 7.12 866K 800K 6.18
Current.
SOHU 09/02 Cup 35.29 +0.25 36.14 42.92 2.8M 5M 32.12
Current.
STST 09/03 Flat 20.21 +1.64 20.18 24 230K 175K 18.36
Current.
TKLC 08/02 Test BO 17.31 +0.38 15.96 18.95 615K 1M 15.85
Current.
TRB 09/06 Put 46.11 +0.59 45.38 43 992K 1M 46.28
Buy Not Hit.
TSA 08/23 DB hdl 32.7 +0.22 31.69 38 106K 400K 31.72
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 35.05 +0.28 28.06 31.44 494K 494K 32.42
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 35.05 +0.28 26.62 30 494K 500K 32.42
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 35.05 +0.28 23.42 27.62 494K 603K 32.42
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 35.05 +0.28 21.88 26 494K 603K 32.42
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 35.05 +0.28 19.3 22.19 494K 577K 32.42
Current.
TSYS 08/14 Test BO 4.06 -0.01 3.54 4.45 327K 120K 3.55
Current.
TUES 08/06 Cup hdl 31.5 -0.6 30.68 36.78 658K 309K 32.68
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as it broke the 18 day MVA.
TXN 08/21 DB hdl 26.03 +0.9 23.64 28.88 16M 15M 23.88
Current.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 39.35 +0.74 28.8 34.12 748K 2.1M 36.32
Current.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 39.35 +0.74 23.45 28 748K 2M 36.32
Current.
UOPX 08/14 BO 64.21 -0.2 61.78 74 179K 300K 63.25
Current.
XLNX 08/30 Cup hdl 32.29 +1.21 31.12 37 7.4M 11M 29.15
Current.
XOMA 07/28 Test BO 9.4 +1 8.35 10.24 5.1M 1.5M 8.93
Exited.
XRAY 08/28 Flat 43.85 +0.64 44.65 53.55 278K 625K 43.05
Buy Not Issued.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 53.7 +0.65 51.12 59.55 1.1M 3M 51.42
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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