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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 4
THE PLAYS: Got yet another forecast split, with FCEL announcing after hours!!
BONUS PLAYS:
AMGN (Amgen--$66.38; +0.56; optionable (YAA): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amgn.html
STATUS: Still looks good as it ranges up and down above support of the 200 and 10 day MVAs on low volume (6.8 million; avg. 10.3 million). The stock needs to break over 67.60 to clear the recent consolidation, so look for stronger volume to boost it up. AMGN is in a cup base and has formed the recent pattern as a type of handle. The cup is part of a larger, 10-month base. First Target: $75 (previous highs in the smaller cup pattern). After that, 80.
BUY POINT: Over 67.62 on volume of 9 million or better. Stop: 63, below the 18 day MVA (64.43).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (YAA GL).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amgn.html
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$44.73; +0.30; optionable (QQQ):
STATUS: Hanging near yesterday's closing price, failing to break back over resistance at the 10, 18, and 50 day MVAs (pretty hefty resistance) as volume dropped back to 68 million (avg. 73 million). The doji shown is at the low (44.30), and suggests a move down if the market begins selling off again. If it breaks support (50 day MVA, simple, at 44.03), we will continue to look at playing it down. Target: $42.80, an interim high. Then $40.
BUY POINT: Below 44 (50 day MVA, simple is at 44.01) on rising volume in market selling, OR, on a move back down after again testing the upper resistance.
POSITION: June $53 puts to buy (QQQ RA). Please check with your broker in the morning for deltas; they are unavailable at the time of this writing).
SOX (Phili Semi--$598.71; +13.10; optionable (SOW):
STATUS: Sold below the 50 day MVA (624.35) the previous 2 days, but found support at today's low of 580.32 and bounced back to a high of 610.88 (the simple 50 day MVA). The index pulled back from there, and may try to move up to test that level again. On a failed test and move back down from there, we will look at playing the index down if the market is selling. Initial target: $575.
BUY POINT: On a move down after a failed test of 610-611, on strong selling volume.
POSITION: June $610 puts to buy (SJX RB).
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: FCEL announced its split as forecast! After a good day, it was rambling up after hours. It joins the three announcements last week.
BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Pre-Splits WFMI and FIC, and Continuing Candidates ACF, KMP and OMC.
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS:
1) FCEL - Announced the split as forecast!
2) BMET - Still strong
FCEL (Fuelcell--$73.97; +2.15; optionable): Announced a 2:1 stock split today, as forecast!
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcel.html
STATUS: After a very hard fall the preceding two sessions, FCEL made a bit of a move running into earnings, hitting up to 78.46 (just under its 10 day MVA, at 78.87) at its high before pulling back to close. As it pulled back before earnings we were getting ready to move in as described in the Team Trade. Showing the strength of split news even when the stock did not look good going into the event, FCEL was up again after hours by as much as three dollars. The stock is now back in the range of its former handle, from which it broke out with a big move mid-month, and we will see if it holds and can make a move back up on the strength of the announcement. The breakout high was way up over 90, but this stock can fly when it starts.
BUY POINT: A move back over the 10 day MVA, with continued strong volume (2.1 million; average 797,000).
POSITION: Stock and/or July (next expiration out is October) $75 calls to buy (FQG GP). Remember: option prices will be higher because of the news increasing volatility. If you are looking at those, let the stock pullback before it starts higher after the initial round of selling.
BMET (Biomet--$44.67; -0.83; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split with a board meeting 6-29-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-6-00 at a stock price of $29. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-16-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: The stock is bouncing around a bit, with support on the low end at the 18 day MVA (43.52) and at the high end at 46 (the stock's high). After the nice move up yesterday the stock pulled back on low volume Thursday, this time holding the 10 day MVA, which it tapped at its low of 44.35. Still looks good in this trading range formed since breaking from an ascending wedge, and we will look for the stock to hold here and make a move back up to a new high. It is forming another little one right now.
BUY POINT: Breakout A move over 46 on above average (1.82 million; today down to 995,400).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (BIQ GH).
PRE-SPLIT BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split. Not huge money, but it can be very steady.
1) WFMI - Good pattern and going into the split
2) ESRX - Nice pullback
3) SDS - Just a nice pattern
4) LOW - Could make a move off the doji
5) GENZ - Started a move
6) PKI - A bounce from support going into the split
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$57.27; +0.67; optionable): Grocery Stores. Splits 2:1 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Has formed a cup since early February, and as it approached the high in the left side it has pulled back to form a handle. It made a move out of its tight little range over its 10 day MVA (56) on volume that moved above average (557,500 today; average 528,500). We are looking at it from both the pre-split run it has started as well as a breakout of its cup with handle. The handle high is 58.83.
PLAY: From here A continued move up, with stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (FMQ HK (no open interest for July). Breakout 58.96 on volume of 800,000, with stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (FMQ HK).
ESRX (Express Scripts--$96.54; -0.76; optionable): Announced a 2:1 stock split as forecast! Splits 2:1 effective on or about June 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Has made a very strong move off of its split, and after a very strong move Tuesday the stock has pulled back a bit. The inevitable pullback after the split announcement run. The move looks good, as the pullback was on much lower volume (292,600 today; average 784,300). Also, it is still holding over the former handle high of 96.34, and we will see if it can continue to hold that level (10 day MVA is below at 94.70) for a continuation of the surge. The breakout high was 100.84, with the recent high at 101 (the left side of its recent cup-with-handle pattern; the late-December high is 107).
BUY POINT: After holding here at support, a strong move back up on increased volume near the average.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $90 calls to buy (XTQ HR low open interest).
SDS (Sungard Data--$59.48; +0.43; optionable): Announced a 2:1 split, effective June 18.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Broke out of its cup with handle recently, and after hitting a high of 64.50 the stock has pulled back into the range of the handle. It is still looking good, however, holding over its 18 day MVA (59.05), with the 10 day just above at 59.77. Thursday saw the second consecutive doji for the stock as volume continued to be at rather low levels (390,300; average 887,000). From this support we will look for the stock to make a strong move up.
BUY POINT: A move back over 61 on increased volume near the average, with stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (SDS GK).
LOW (Lowe's--$69.53; +0.03): Announced a split last Friday before the open, as forecast! The split will be effective on or about June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: LOW has leveled out a bit since announcing its split, which came after the stock made a break from a cup with handle. The stock pulled back Tuesday but it has shown consecutive dojis on the 10 day MVA (69.43), which could indicate another move up. There is resistance from the high at 73.70, but that is a decent move in and of itself, and with some volume we can see if it will break out to a new high.
BUY POINT: A strong move over 70.50 with increased volume near the average (up to 2.79 million; average 3.35 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (LOW GM).
GENZ (Genzyme--$106.94; +3.52; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Biotechnology. Finally got it in the right place, and GENZ made a bit of a move today off of Wednesday's doji. Going toward the split we will see if the stock can continue to show some strength, improving back toward recent highs at 110 and the all-time high of 111.50, which it hit before it fell back hard when it announced the issuance of some convertible securities. Today was encouraging, and we will see if the run can continue through Friday.
PLAY: A move up from here, with stock and/or July $100 calls to buy (GZQ GT).
PKI (Perkinelmer--$69.03; +2.02; optionable): Technical Services. Splits 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
STATUS: Splitting Monday, but caught support at the 50 day MVA (66.32) after having dropped back from its breakout of a pennant pattern (breakout high 76.25). It is now just under the 10 day MVA (69.66), and we will look for a strong run up and over that level Friday.
PLAY: A strong move up from here, with stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (PKI GM).
CONTINUING CANDIDATE BEST PLAYS: Some puts in here.
1) ACF - Could be ready for another move
2) IFIN - Tested resistance
3) IGT - Strong move
4) KMI - Still weak
5) GNTX - Breakout move!
6) ITG - Unlike IGT, a put
7) MIKE - No announcement this week, but still a good pattern
ACF (Americredit--$52.20; +0.30; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ACF is one of the stocks that have made a very strong run for us on the reportj. The stock made a great move mid-month, and from the high established at 55 the stock has gradually pulled back. It appears to have support at its 10 day MVA (51.86), showing a shooting star doji on that level today with sharply higher volume (1.33 million; average 952,000). May be ready to make yet another move off of this bullish pattern, and although it has come a long way, it is poised to move again. We will be careful in using stops as the stock makes its move, protecting profits, and watching the action as it approaches the resistance at 55.
BUY POINT: A move up from here on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (ACF HJ).
IFIN (Investors Fin Services--$65.13; +0.13; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ifin.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-15-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $82. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 2-18-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $40.76. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has been in a very long handle to a double bottom, but gave up support of the 200 day MVA (68.63) this week. After a strong drop Tuesday, the stock has shown consecutive dojis, today testing back up to the 10 day MVA (67.67) at its high before pulling back. Volume has dipped back but is still strong, today at 414,100 (average 359,300), and we could get another move upward off of this pattern; however, we will again watch for it to fail and drop back through this support level at 65. We will watch the April gap up point (and center of the former double bottom pattern at 61.50, with an initial target of 60.
BUY POINT: After a bit of a move up that fails, a move back down and through 65 on increased volume.
POSITION: July $75 puts to buy (FLQ SO).
IGT (International Game Technology--$61.45; +1.93; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Made a good move back up today. The stock had eased back from a great breakout move from a cup with a long handle, closing on the 10 day MVA (59.89) Wednesday before moving back up today on increased volume (708,300; average 769,000). The breakout high was 63.50, and we can look at aggressive positions on a move up toward that level on increased volume.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move up from here on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (IGT GJ).
KMI (Kinder Morgan--$55.25; -0.36; optionable): Gas Utility.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmi.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in October 1998 at a stock price of $50. It also split 3:2 in the $40 range in 1993. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-9-00. We are currently unable to determine if any additional shares were increased.
STATUS: Fell last week out of what was shaping up as an ascending wedge, and dropped Tuesday though its 50 day MVA (55.25). Since then the stock has tried to hold on, showing a doji and then a looser doji as volume declines (500,800 today; average 650,400). Looks weak, and we could get a test back up to the 50 day MVA, or a drop from here. In either scenario we can look at a put play. There is potential support from some January-February levels in the 54 range, but our target initially will be 50-52 (200 day MVA and March lows at 48).
BUY POINT: After a failed move up to test the 50 day MVA, selling back down on increased volume. From here A move below 55 on increased volume.
POSITION: Both buy points July $60 or $65 puts to buy (KMI SL or KMI SM).
GNTX (Gentex--$31.30; +2.09): No announcement, but the stock broke out.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gntx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-21-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting (the company has announced three splits with shareholder meetings). The stock price was $35. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 4:30 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: GNTX broke out again, blasting up today from the support of its 10 day MVA (29.54). The stock has made a nice pullback to that level after breaking out of its long handle (almost as long as its cup, which started in early March) recently, and after that rest was ready to go. Volume spiked way up to 956,000 (average 436,200), and the stock is steadily making its way back up into split range. Still a buy up to 32.20.
BUY POINT: A continued move up on strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $25 calls to buy (GXQ IE).
ITG (Investment Tech Group--$50.50; +0.47; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 11-19-97 at a stock price of $70, and in December 1995 at $65. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 1:00 pm ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has taken a strong drop from what was looking like a decent pattern (cup with handle). The stock gave up the 50 day MVA (50.87) Wednesday, and has landed on its up trendline connecting March and April lows. Today the stock showed a loose doji after testing the 50 day at its high of 51.09. Volume was still high (241,800; average 230,200), and after this test we will look for the stock to run back down and through the trendline with strong selling. Our initial target is 46 (200 day MVA at 44.51).
PLAY: A drop back below 49.75 on increased selling volume, with July $55 puts to buy (ITG SK).
MIKE (Michaels Stores--$37.20; +1.21; optionable): No announcement, but in a good pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Still in its handle to a cup pattern, making a move back up today after dropping back to its 18 day MVA (35.96) Wednesday. Volume was sharply up on the move up today, at 334,200 (average 241,000). Looking for a breakout. Relative strength has broken out ahead of the price, a solid sign.
BUY POINT: 38.35 on volume of 360,000. Stop Loss: 35.66
POSITION: Both buy points Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IF).
POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) IVX - Big move and breakout on news
IVX (Ivax--$33.70; +1.13; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 5:4 on May 21.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivx.html
STATUS: Got some good news on a drug product and the stock blasted up Wednesday. The stock had been moving in a somewhat lateral consolidation since pulling back from its recent high at 32.56 before the move. The stock pulled back a bit yesterday, making a move back up Thursday. Volume was down a bit but was still strong at 1.56 million (average 1.17 million). It has some resistance here from December highs (34.40), so we will see if the strong move can continue. If we get a pullback, we will look for it to hold the 32 range for another move.
PLAY: From here A continued run on increased volume, using care with stops, and stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (IVX IF). Pullback A move up after holding 32 on a pullback, with stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (IVX IF).
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PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
* * *
CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$38.56; -5.39; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 6-21-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: CHBS got blasted today, falling back through its 18 day MVA (41.92), closing just above its 50 day MVA (37.96). Volume was huge at 1.29 million (average 427,400), as there did not appear to be company-specific news. It had been looking pretty good in a lateral consolidation, but we will not see if it can hang on.
CEFT (Concord EFS--$50.70; -0.02; optionable): NEW INFORMATION Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-24-01 at 9:30 am CST at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: Has pulled laterally since breaking from its cup last Friday. The move was on below average volume, but it is hanging on. The breakout level was 50, with the 10 day MVA at 49.23. We will look for the stock to hold support in the 50 range, watching for a move up with volume behind the move. It has been a steady, solid move up from the 42 level, so perhaps it will rest and from a consolidation.
BUY POINT: Pullback A move up on above average volume (3.8 million; today 3.6 million) after a low volume pullback that holds 49-50.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $45 calls to buy (EQF II).
End Part 2 of 4
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us stock market
stock watch
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