stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

NVDA (Nvidia--$85.61; -0.69; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
BACKGROUND: The company last announced 5-16-00 after the close with earnings. Price was at $94, but the stock rose $8.74 that day in anticipation.
STATUS: NVDA is holding on rather well, although it has dropped back the past week from its new high (set intraday before a drop) at 100. It showed a 'shooting star' doji Wednesday on huge volume, but was just under resistance of its short-term MVA's (10 day at 88), and today it pulled back a bit on lighter, below average volume (5.26 million; average 5.53 million). We will see if NVDA continues down toward its 50 day MVA (78.35), or if it is able to rally if we get a decent market.
BUY POINT: Aggressive In a strong market, a move back over the 10 day MVA with increased volume, carefully protecting positions.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $85 calls to buy (RVU FP and RVU HQ).

OMC (Omnicom--$93.08; +0.23; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 12-16-97 at stock price of $70. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-22-01 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout of its cup with handle. The stock made a strong move out of that pattern a couple of weeks ago, but dropped abruptly after hitting a high of 98.20. It is now at the prior breakout point and over its 18 day MVA (92.68), showing a tight doji over that level today as volume picked up (1.14 million; average 1.06 million). We could get a bit of a move back up here, but we would be carefully protecting positions after the high-volume drop back on the first day of selling off of the breakout high.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move back over 94 on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $90 calls to buy (OMC GR).

RJR (RJ Reynolds--$59.48; +1.16; optionable): Tobacco.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rjr.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RJR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 4-25-01 at 9:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Trying a move up, but there is not much strength there. The stock pierced through its 18 day MVA (58.59) today, but volume remained tame at 291,000 (average 440,600). It had bled steadily back after having failed in its breakout from a saucer pattern, but held the 50 day MVA (57.58) for the current move. We will see if it can gain some strength and move over some resistance from former highs in its cup pattern.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move back over 61 on increased volume near the average.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (RJR HK).

SRCL (Stericycle--$42.83; +1.58; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that SRCL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: We were looking at this one as a put play, but after three dojis under the 50 day MVA (42.34) the stock broke back through that level today. It closed over a confluence of MVA's (18 day at 42.57), with big volume on the move (460,800; average 245,500). There could be something to this move, but we would need to see more. The stock broke from a cup with handle in late March, and after hitting a high of 50 it has pulled back, trying to hold the 50 day. We will see what it does, but are not looking at positions Friday.

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

BAX (Baxter International--$49.38; +0.33; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 5-30-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Broke from its ascending wedge pattern recently, and after testing that break the stock is showing some initial post-split strength. Today it closed back over the breakout high with a solid move the day after the split. Volume was up at 1.95 million (average 1.47 million), so after this breakout we will look for more. We are using care to protect positions, as we do with post-splits, which often have initial trouble moving.
PLAY: A move up from here, with stock and/or August $45 calls to buy (BAX HI).

BRCD (Brocade--$39.00; +2.03; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: BRCD tested back up toward its 50 day MVA (41.79), hitting up to 41.09 at its high before pulling back for a doji. From this pattern we will see if the stock cannot make a move back over resistance, and in a weak market we can continue to look to the downside with BRCD. The low Wednesday was 35.80, which we will watch on a move down that, depending on the weakness of the market, could take the stock near 30. Could be a quick play, because in a rally we know BRCD can move to the upside.
BUY POINT: In a continued weak market, a move down on continued strong volume (16.4 million today; average 14.5 million), perhaps after another failed test of the 50 day. July $50 puts to buy (UBF SJ).

EMLX (Emulex--$34.69; +1.60; optionable (UMQ): Computer Hardware: Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: EMLX has been treated roughly, Wednesday gapping below its 50 day MVA (37.75) and continuing down. Today the stock stopped the three-day sell-off, showing a doji on volume that continues to be above average (6.5 million; average 6.34 million). Off of the doji we will see if EMLX can try the 50 day, but on a failed move up to that level we can look for a strong sell back down, looking at the 28-30 level initially.
PLAY: After a failed test of the 50 day MVA, a drop back on continued strong selling volume, with July $40 or $45 puts to buy (UMQ SH or UMQ SI).

JNPR (Juniper--$42.53; +2.32; optionable (JUX): Computer Hardware http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Dropped out of its recent consolidation range below the 50 day MVA (56.86, and recently below the 18 day MVA at 51.66). The selling was severe, with Wednesday's gap down on big volume taking the stock down to our initial target of 40. Today saw a slight recovery, closing with a doji pattern. It is weak, and after a failed move up off of the doji it can be a continued downside play, with April lows back below 30.
PLAY: After a fall back through 40 on increased selling volume (29.4 million today; average 28.8 million), perhaps after a bounce up from the doji, July $50 puts to buy (JUX SJ).

SEBL (Siebel--$45.36; +1.72; optionable) (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: SEBL was not immune to the strong selling the past few days, but is trying to hold on. Today the stock inched back over its 50 day MVA (44.69), moving up with increased volume behind the move (20.7 million; average 18.5 million). It reached 47.20 at its high, just below the 10 day MVA, at 48.12. We are not looking at a put play, as we are with other techs, but we will keep a close eye on the stock to see if it holds support at the 50 day.
PLAY: In a strong market, a move back over the 10 day MVA, with stock and/or August $45 calls to buy (SGW HI).

STT (State Street--$54.97; +0.71; optionable): Banking. Split 2:1 effective 5-31-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Is testing its breakout from a pennant pattern handle (to a cup), moving back up to close over its 18 day MVA (54.55) on the split today. It is just above the former high in the pennant, so we will see if it holds here and can make a move back up. The recent high on the breakout was 57.87.
PLAY: A move over 56 on continued strong volume (up to 1.08 million; average 1.01 million), with stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (STT HJ).

STZ (Constellation Brands--$38.65; -0.85; optionable): Wineries. Split 2:1 May 15.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
STATUS: Broke out of its small cup on the split, and after testing the break made a nice move up Wednesday. However, the stock gapped up today to a new high at 40 but then retreated, moving back on continued below average volume (167,800; average 187,000). We will see if it holds the 10 day MVA (37.95) for another move, but we will not give it much time as the solid post-split move could be over if it does not.
PLAY: Aggressive A move up on increased volume after holding the 10 day MVA on a lower volume drop, with stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (STZ GG).

Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

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stock watch
stock split