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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: CELL; HDTV; HYC; JCOM; PTN
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 09/11/2003
CVNS (Covansys--$6; -0.02; no options): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvns.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CVNS is working on the handle of a nice little 2 month base sporting excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume), strong money flow, and relative strength ready to breakout. Volume has swelled the past four sessions as CVNS works laterally over the 10 day MVA (5.79) as it bangs its head against resistance at 6. An excellent base following the breakout from a 8 month cup with handle. A very nice base on base pattern that can lead to much stronger gains.
Volume: 71.25K Avg Volume: 91.5K
BUY POINT: $6.25 Volume=137K Target=$7.88 Stop=$5.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvns.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
DJO (DJ Orthopedics--$12.08; +0.33; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/djo.html
STATUS: Cup. Like the looks of DJO as it moves more or less laterally the past two weeks over the 18 day MVA (11.58), coming up off the 50 day MVA (11.04) as the bottom of the current 2 month base. It looks ready to start the move up to form the right side of the base. Accumulation thus far is solid at 3 to 1 (3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume) and money flow is running up sharply ahead of the price. We are expecting price to follow money flow, and are looking at positions on a move over the late August high on strong volume.
Volume: 46.4K Avg Volume: 72.681K
BUY POINT: $12.36 Volume=100K Target=$14.85 Stop=$11.56
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/djo.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
NTPA (Netopia--$7.2; +0.1; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntpa.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. NTPA just broke out of a big, 21 month cup with handle base and surged from 5 to 7.51. After that strong move it has worked laterally for almost two weeks in a very tight, narrow range over the 10 day MVA (6.88), testing the 18 day MVA (6.54) on the intraday lows and rebounding. The price/volume action in this lateral move has been solid: up on gains, down on losses. Money flow is outstanding and relative strength is ready to make another breakout. Volume was up sharply Thursday after a test of the 18 day MVA. Very solid action. NTPA looks ready so surge along with other net stocks.
Volume: 341.434K Avg Volume: 188K
BUY POINT: $7.35 Volume=325K Target=$9.35 Stop=$6.84
POSITION: NQD LU - Dec. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntpa.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
VECO (Veeco Instruments--$22.29; -0.11; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/veco.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. VECO broke out from a nice 3 month double bottom with handle base in late August and rallied up to 24. In the recent selling it has dropped to test the move, tapping the 18 day MVA (21.68) on the Thursday low and recovering to hold the 10 day MVA on the close. Excellent 4 to 2 accumulation in the prior base, and the blast higher Monday was on huge volume. Looking for it to hold here and start back up on strong trade.
Volume: 370.053K Avg Volume: 359.272K
BUY POINT: $23.06 Volume=539K Target=$27.68 Stop=$21.78
POSITION: QVC AX - Jan. $22.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/veco.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/04/2003
DSCO (Discovery Labs--$8.05; +0.08; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsco.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still looks solid in its 2 month flat base, forming a small handle here over the 10 day MVA (7.85) on very low, below average volume. Super money flow and relative strength. Accumulation is 2 to 0 in the base. Looks ready to make the move.
Volume: 202.681K Avg Volume: 574.727K
BUY POINT: $8.14 Volume=742K Target=$10.18 Stop=$7.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dsco.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$10.04; +0.1; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After the strong surge out of the 8 month base in August, EMBT is moving laterally and slightly lower to test the 10 day MVA (9.89) on lower volume. It is showing some volume spikes on up sessions (e.g., Tuesday), good signs that big money is working its way into the stock. Outstanding money flow and accumulation, holding up very well in the market pullback. Looks just about ready to start the next move, but want to see a definitive break higher on strong trade.
Volume: 154.518K Avg Volume: 230.272K
BUY POINT: New: $10.45 (orig. $9.33) Volume=400K Target=$11.12 Stop=$9.42
POSITION: MBQ KB - Nov. $10c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 08/21/2003
HDTV (Spatialight--$4.27; +0.12; no options): Microdisplays
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdtv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HDTV looks ready to make the break from its 9.5 month pattern, working laterally the past week above the 10 day MVA (4.12) and below roughly 4.25. Volume started to edge up Wednesday, and Thursday HDTV tried to make the breakout but gave it back. Volume surged. It is strong across the board, and looking for another strong volume move higher that holds toward the close.
Volume: 172.264K Avg Volume: 82.863K
BUY POINT: New: 4.44 (orig. $4.12) Volume=125K Target=$5.12 Stop=$3.93
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdtv.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
IMCL (Imclone--$45.85; +0.18; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imcl.html
STATUS: Test breakout. IMCL shot up early in the week and has since come back to test the 10 day MVA (44.79), tapping that level on the Thursday intraday low and rebounding on rising, above average volume. The candlestick chart shows a doji after the pullback, often an indication that a test is over. Looking for another good surge here on strong volume to add to positions.
Volume: 1.58M Avg Volume: 2.291M
BUY POINT: New: $47.22 (orig. $48.12) Volume=3M Target=$58.62 Stop=$43.35
POSITION: QCI AI - Jany $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imcl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03. Doji at the 18 day MVA.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings. Nice test of the breakout still in progress.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings. Still 50 day MVA sitting.
BLUD: Forecast to announce a split on 10-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Trying to edge up for the breakout.
CLE: No split announcement with board meeting 9-4-03. Still in the 18 day MVA test.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting. Still holding at support at 55.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Still at the 50 day MVA.
CPWM: Forecast 9-30 with a board meeting. On the 50 day MVA.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03 but a very solid move and still working higher. Nice 18 day MVA test in progress.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Exited Wednesday on the break lower. Needs to get back over 76 with some authority to enter.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. Exited as it dumped lower and wanted to preserve the gain.
FDS: Forecast 9-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. Still testing the 18 day MVA on a nice pullback.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03 with earnings. Nice doji at the 50 day MVA.
GDW: Forecast 9-18 with a board meeting. Exited, but managed to hold the 50 day MVA.
GILD: Forecast 10-30-03. Back to the 18 day MVA on low volume, trying to reload for another move.
HAR: Forecast 10-29 with earnings. Nice, quiet test of the 10 day MVA and showing a doji. May be ready to try again.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03
JBLU: Forecast 10-23 with a board meeting.
KRON: Forecast 10-28-03 with earnings. Starting to struggle in the pattern. Needs to get back under control.
KSWS: Forecast 10-28. Below the 50 day MVA and we exited for now.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings. Testing the 50 day MVA.
MERQ: Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03. Testing the 18 day MVA after the big breakout.
NDN: Forecast 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings. Below the 50 day MVA.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03. Still trading around the 18 day MVA.
PIXR: No announcement with the shareholder meeting on 9-5-03. Trying to hold the breakout with a low volume test.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. Trying to recover over the 18 day MVA.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA on low volume.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/11/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$33.48; +1; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (31.47). After a nice run from 18 to 36 from April to early September, VRTS is making a test of the 50 day MVA. This is pretty normal action for a stock after it breaks out from a base. This pullback allows it to consolidate that run, and if it can bounce back over the August high at 34 on strong volume, we will open positions and see how it develops from there.
Volume: 6.982M Avg Volume: 675K
BUY POINT: $36.64 Volume=1M Target=$41.55 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/04/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$56.82; -0.23; optionable): Personal products. Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. ACV blasted out of a short 5 week base early this month following the breakout from a 6 month base in July. A market leader, ACV is making a nice, orderly pullback to test the trend. Thursday it showed a hammer doji on the 18 day MVA (56.93) as volume spiked higher. Looking for a strong turn back up on continued strong volume to enter new positions.
Volume: 297.6K Avg Volume: 248.227K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $57.88; breakout: $58.45 Volume=400K Target=$67.45 Stop=$56.58
POSITION: ACV JK - Oct. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
JAH (Jarden--$34.1; +0.69; no options): Rubber & plastics. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 2 for1 split on 5-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $37.10. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started the breakout from the 4 month base Thursday, rallying on a strong shot of volume. Accumulation in the base is a strong 4 to 1. Still a buy at this point on the breakout.
Volume: 264.1K Avg Volume: 167.136K
BUY POINT: New: $34.28 (orig. $33.72) Volume=270K Target=$40.45 Stop=$32.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$57.15; +0.05; optionable): Regional airline. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 in conjunction with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-24-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA (56.20). JBLU has been one of the strongest plays in the market, giving us a strong surge from the July breakout. It is now coming back for a nice, orderly pullback to the 10 day MVA after a strong surge higher to start the month. Thursday the stock showed a nice doji right on the 10 day MVA as volume spiked back up to well above average. Looking to add to some positions here on a bounce higher on continued volume as JBLU continues to run higher in a much improved airline sector.
Volume: 1.301M Avg Volume: 1.072M
BUY POINT: $46.32 Volume=1.5M Target=$55.64 Stop=$55.65
POSITION: JGQ LI - Dec. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$47.44; +0.58; optionable): Technical software. No announcement with 9-4 board meeting. Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $87. It has announced prior to that in the $45 to $50 range, so it is in the game. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company had sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Before we could even get in, MERQ blasted higher out of a 3 month reverse head and shoulder base. It rallied hard up to 50 and then the past week has started testing that move, pulling back to 10 day MVA (47.01) on mostly lower volume. That is an important point as it is the high on the left side of the base as well. MERQ showed a doji at that level. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the base. Looking for a strong move up here to prove up the breakout and enter.
Volume: 2.708M Avg Volume: 3.144M
BUY POINT: New: $48.25 (orig. $45.95) Volume=4.5M Target=$58 Stop=$42.73
POSITION: RQB AI - Jan. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/merq.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$65.26; +1.12; optionable): Online education. Forecast to announce a split on 9-22-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (64.34) and right at 65 as it tests the recent blast higher. This is very good action as UOPX has not given it back even in the market selling. This stock can run like the wind once it catches its breath.
Volume: 152.038K Avg Volume: 234.363K
BUY POINT: New: 66.35 (orig. $61.78) Volume=300K Target=$74 Stop=$63.25
POSITION: UBY LM - Dec. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 08/30/2003
BKST (Brookstone--$28.83; +0.24; no options): Splits 3:2 on 9-24-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkst.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. Volume shot higher Tuesday as BKST continued its lateral move over the 18 day MVA (28.13). A very tight lateral move with volume again jumping back above average Thursday as it showed another doji. Outstanding money flow and we really like the solid price/volume action.
Volume: 90.094K Avg Volume: 60.272K
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=90K Target=$33.42 Stop=$27.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bkst.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 08/30/2003
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$24.41; -0.17; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CMTL blasted higher in late August, rallied to 26 and is now testing that move on low, below average volume. Thursday it reached all the way down to the 18 day MVA on the low (22.36) and rebounded to close at the 10 day MVA on a strong volume shot. Looks as if the test could be over.
Volume: 662.645K Avg Volume: 505.272K
BUY POINT: $26.28 Volume=600K Target=$31.38 Stop=$23.42
POSITION: CQH AE - Jan. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 07/30/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$29.05; +0.53; optionable): Expensive coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SBUX has worked laterally the past two weeks after reporting a strong increase in same store sales shot it higher. It has worked between 29.50 and the 10 day MVA on the low (28.57). Volume is excellent, holding near average. It looks ready to make the break higher for the next buy.
Volume: 3.724M Avg Volume: 3.147M
BUY POINT: New: $29.55 (orig. $27.55) Volume=6M Target=$33 Stop=$25.94
POSITION: SQX AF - Jan. $30c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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