stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 4

POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) DGX - Big move up on the split
2) BAX - Broke out!

DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$66.20; +4.39; optionable): Health services. Splits 2:1 effective June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Was in a nice lateral pattern over its 18 day MVA (60.96) going into Friday's split, and the stock went ahead with a strong move, gapping up and closing just below the recent breakout high of 66.75. A strong move, with volume moving up to 743,800 (average 364,000), and we will see if it can continue. Because of the nature of post-splits, which often experience a slump after the split, we are exercising care with stops on positions.
PLAY: A move up on continued strong volume, with stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (DGX HL low open interest).

BAX (Baxter International--$50.11; +0.73; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 5-30-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Broke from its ascending wedge pattern recently, and after testing that break the stock has made a strong move back up post-split. Friday saw the move continue as BAX hit a new high, moving on volume that was sharply higher at 2.84 million (average 1.5 million). It hit a high of 50.53 before pulling back to close. We will see if it can continue up, but if it takes a rest we will see if it can hold the prior breakout high of 49.85. We are of course using care to protect positions, but BAX has shown solid movement in a solid pattern.
PLAY: A move up from here, with stock and/or August $45 calls to buy (BAX HI).
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PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
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CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$39.00; +0.44; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 6-21-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: CHBS got hammered on Thursday, and Friday dipped to 35.75 before recovering to close back over its 50 day MVA (38). We would expect a bounce after such a fall, so now we will see if it holds support or tanks. It had been looking pretty good, but we will wait and see.

ADVP (Advancepcs--$60.99; +0.08; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has dropped back into the range of its recent consolidation, holding support at the 50 day MVA (58.09). It bounced up from that level Thursday, but could not get past its 10 day MVA (62.22) Friday, gapping up to that level before pulling back. Volume was back down at 663,700 (average 943,400), which is the below-average levels we have seen from ADVP on its steady move up in May before showing some volume on the drop back this week. It is not unusual for stocks in strong uptrends to visit their 50 day MVA, but we will see if the stock can hold onto that support and make a move up again with stronger volume behind it. The high, made last week, is 68.59.
BUY POINT: Aggressive After holding support at the 50 day, a move back over the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (QVD FL).

FDC (First Data--$67.01; +1.40; optionable): Working on a forecast date. Earnings were announced on 4-12-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2 for 1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FDC found support at its 50 day MVA (64), which is in the range of the highs from its former cup pattern, and made a nice move up this week. However, after gapping up Friday the stock showed a doji, tapping the 10 day MVA at its low of 65.93 and stretching up as high as 67.75. The pattern indicates a pull back, so we will see if it can hold the 10 day and try to move back up toward the breakout high of 68.76. The stock has failed twice since the breakout in the 68 range.
BUY POINT: Aggressive After holding 66 on a move back down on lower volume (up to 1.59 million Friday; average 1.73 million), a move back over 68 on increased volume.
POSITION: Aggressive Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (FDC HM).

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.

New Pre-Split Plays:

LH (Laboratory Corp--$148.35; +8.09; optionable): Health Services. Splits 2:1 effective June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Has been moving in a large pennant pattern stretching back early March, and Friday made a big move up. The stock cleared it most recent high at 141.55, and now faces the March high at 151.12. Volume went through the roof (2.89 million; average 411,600) as Roche announced it would be selling part of its stake in the company. We will see if the momentum can continue, watching for the stock to take out the March high and look forward to February high of 162.
PLAY: A continued move on strong volume, with stock and/or July $145 calls to buy (LH GI).

JNJ (Johnson&Johnson--$98.00; +1.05; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 effective June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: JNJ broke from a cup with handle in mid-May, but the breakout, which hit a high of 102, has failed as the stock has pulled back to consolidate back in the range of the former handle. The stock has been struggling with its 10 day MVA (97.82; holding over its 50 day at 95.91), but managed to move up and close over that level Friday. Volume has been consistently below average in the consolidation (there was not very good volume on its breakout), coming in at 4 million (average 5.3 million). Looking for a strong move back up out of this consolidation. Relative strength is moving back up toward its breakout levels.
PLAY: A move over 99, with stock and/or July $95 calls to buy (JNJ GS).

SHFL (Shuffle Master--$32.80; +0.35; optionable): Manufacturing. Splits 2:1 effective June 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: The stock has been a steady mover, running up from the 12 range since last December, riding its short-term MVA's with the occasional visit to the 50 day MVA. It recently made a strong move up to a high of 34.95, but has made a nice, steady, low-volume pullback to the 10 day MVA (32.40), over which it showed a loose doji Friday. Volume was slightly up to 179,600 (average 268,800), and the stock looks like it is in a position to spring. Solid relative strength, with excellent money flow and buying.
PLAY: On a move up from here, stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (SFQ GF low open interest).

Continuing Pre-Split Plays:

GENZ (Genzyme--$109.01; +2.07; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Biotechnology. Made a nice little move going into the split, holding support above its 50 day MVA (101.28) and moving back over the short-term MVA's (106.54). The stock is now near its recent highs at 110 and the all-time high of 111.50, which it hit before it fell back hard when it announced the issuance of some convertible securities early last month. We will see if it can maintain some strength post-split, but volume has been low and below average on this move.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over 110 on increased volume near the average (2.8 million; Friday 14.6 million), with stock and/or July (next expiration is October) $105 calls to buy (GZQ GA). Breakout Over 111.50 on above average volume, with stock and/or July $105 calls to buy (GZQ GA).

PKI (Perkinelmer--$70.04; +1.01; optionable): Technical Services. Splits 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
STATUS: Splitting Monday, but could not make much of a move going into that event. It gave us a nice move off of the 50 day MVA (66.46) earlier in the month, but after starting back up from that level Thursday it could only follow up with a doji, closing just over the 10 day MVA (69.73). That is some topping action. Watch for that gap higher Monday, and if it starts to sell back, we are out of current positions. We will see if it can hold this level post-split, looking for it to continue the move back up toward the recent high (on the breakout of a pennant pattern) at 76.25.
PLAY: Holding the 10 day, then a strong move up from here, with stock and/or July (next expiration is September) $65 calls to buy (PKI GM). We will want to see more volume, which came in at 264,900 Friday (average 654,600).

APPB (Applebee's--$40.03; +0.25; optionable): Splits 3:2 effective June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/a/appb.html
STATUS: Has really fallen hard, so we are dropping but will keep an eye on it.

OKE (Oneck--$42.04; -0.06; no options): Utility. Splits 2:1 effective June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oke.html
STATUS: The stock had been moving in a pennant, but sold back below its most recent low, destroying the pattern of making higher lows. However, it did hold support at the 200 day MVA (41.51), but is now encountering trouble with resistance from a confluence of MVA's (50 day at 42.48). Friday saw a doij under the resistance after the stock tapped the 200 day at its low. There is some time, so we will see if it can garner the strength to move over the 50 day. From there we would look at the recent high of 44.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over the 50 day MVA with increased volume (down to 102,700 Friday; average 132,000), with stock.

FCEL (Fuelcell--$77.98; +4.01; optionable): Announced a stock split Thursday, as forecast! Splits 2:1 effective June 20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcel.html
STATUS: Gapped up on the split, tapping 80 at its high before retreating slightly to close just below its 10 day MVA (78.71) with a doji. The stock is trying to move back up after a very hard fall earlier this week, a fall that took the stock back down from the breakout high (93.44) on a move out of its cup with handle. Volume on the rebound the last two days eclipsed the volume on the selling down (slightly down to 1.95 million Friday; average 829,200), but off of this doji the stock might test near the 70 range (in the range of its former handle; the 50 day MVA is at 67.87) or consolidate a bit before making a sustained move up.
BUY POINT: From here A move over 80 on continued strong volume (we will use care with stops to protect profits), with stock and/or July $75 calls to buy (FQG GO).

FHCC (First Health Group--$50.55; +0.35; no options): The 2:1 split is effective June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/f/fhcc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-19-98 at a stock price of $29.57. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-22-01.
STATUS: Since breaking from a cup in April FHCC has been bouncing around a bit, pulling back since announcing its split and currently holding at the lows in its recent range. After dipping back below its 18 day MVA (50.67) last week, the stock has pulled laterally, moving up slightly Friday to close just below the 18 day. This is key support, so we will see if it can hold; with the announcement behind it, that could add strength to it after it rests from its recent strong run. We often see stocks that have been very strong going into an announcement rest a big back on support and then make a move.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A strong move back over 52, with above average volume (340,600 Friday; average 435,000).
POSITION: Stock.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$55.61; -0.29; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 9:30 ET.
STATUS: ASFC broke from a saucer in late April, and was gradually forming a handle consolidation from it breakout high of 58.50 until the selling got a little more severe last week. The stock fell to the 50 day MVA (55.83), and Friday gave up that level. It needs to do something now; it has been plagued with low volume on its attempted moves up, and the drop here is not encouraging after several dojis on support. This level also represents some support from some highs in the middle of the stock's former cup pattern, so we will see if it can hang on and finally make a move up. We are not going to give it much more time.
BUY POINT: Aggressive Over 57 on increased volume near the average (380,000; Friday up to 276,500). Breakout Over 58.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: Both buy points Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (AQR GK).

BBT (BB&T--$36.01; -0.14; optionable): Banking.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbt.html
BACKGROUND: The company has declared 21:20 splits in 1996 and 1997. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but just enough for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Is hanging on at the 50 day MVA (35.88), still moving in the range of January-March consolidation. It has been back in that range for over a month after having recovered from a dip back near 31, but it is having a tough time with the 37 level, on which it banged its head several times recently. It is now faced with its short-term MVA's (10 day at 36.20) as it tries to move up off of Friday's doji.
BUY POINT: A move over 37.25 on above average volume (804,000; Friday 648,800).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (BBT FG).

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$69.50; +0.90; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Did not show us much on the recent breakout from its cup with handle, pulling back below the breakout point (70.40) last week. It has now made a lateral move under its short-term MVA's, Friday making a bit of a move up to close just over the 10 day (at 69.39). Volume was, as typical for Friday, weak at 85,600 (average 164,600), so we will have to see much more before being interested again. The breakout high was 72.90.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A strong move back over 72 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (CBH FN).

End Part 3 of 4

stock watch
stock split