stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

CECO (Career Education--$51.90; +1.54; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: CECO made a strong move out of its pennant pattern (over its 50 day MVA at 49.16) earlier this week, but after pulling back Thursday the stock held support, this time at its 18 day MVA (50.43). It moved back off of that level, but as on Wednesday, closed well off of its intraday high of 53.05 as volume remained low (up slightly from Thursday's selling, at 171,100; average 266,000). We will see if it can continue the move this time, looking for good volume. The high on this move is 53.20, and the stock hit a high of 55 in late April.
BUY POINT: Aggressive Over 53.20 on increased volume near the average.
POSITION: Stock only.

GNTX (Gentex--$31.12; -0.18): No announcement, but the stock broke out.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gntx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-21-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting (the company has announced three splits with shareholder meetings). The stock price was $35. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 4:30 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: GNTX made another strong breakout move Thursday, and reached up again to 31.84 before closing with a tight doji. It tested back to 30.23 at its low, so we will see if GNTX, with broke out from a long handle to a cup in mid-May before testing that move, will again test back or if it will continue up from here. Volume dipped back on the action to 334,200 (average 450,700). The stock is steadily making its way back up into split range, and is still a buy up to 32.20.
BUY POINT: From here A move up on above average volume. Pullback A strong move up after a continued low-volume retreat that holds the 30 range.
POSITION: Both buy points Stock and/or September $25 calls to buy (GXQ IE).

ITG (Investment Tech Group--$52.25; +1.75; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itg.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 11-19-97 at a stock price of $70, and in December 1995 at $65. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 1:00 pm ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: We were looking at a possible put play after the stock took a strong drop from what was looking like a decent pattern (cup with handle). However, it caught support, holding its up trendline connecting March and April lows (at 50.50), and Friday move back up over that level, in the process taking out its 50 and 18 day MVA's (50.92 and 51.85, respectively). A good recovery, although it was marked with the low volume that was prevalent on Friday. We will see if the move can continue, but for an upside play we will need to be convinced.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over 54 on above average volume (233,800; Friday 187,900), with July $50 (ITG GJ) (next expiration is October).

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$71.40; -0.30):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has made a strong run, with two good surges after breaking out of a saucer pattern last month with a gap. It hit a high of 73.99 on the last move, and has retreated a bit from there to show several consecutive loose dojis over the 18 day MVA (71.03). Volume has been light in this consolidation, but spiked up a bit Friday to 150,600 (average 135,800), perhaps signaling something to come. Looking good for another leg up from here out of this flat, tight consolidation.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move back over 72.50 on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).

MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$60.15; +0.91; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: MERQ was punished with the big techs, and after gapping below the 50 day MVA (61.75) Wednesday the stock has tested that resistance with consecutive loose dojis. Volume has dipped back since the gap down, coming in Friday at 3.02 million (average 5.24 million). At its lows it is testing its mid-May lows in the 58 range. Looks susceptible to a fall back if it cannot crack back over the 50 day, and we will look at a put in a weak market.
BUY POINT: In a weak market, strong selling back below 58 on strong volume.
POSITION: July $65 or $70 puts to buy (RQB SM or RQB SN).

MMM (Minnesota Mining--$119.41; +0.83):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-15-94 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $102. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-8-01 at 10:00 am CT at which time no additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: Has been in a steady pullback from its breakout (from a cup with handle) high of 127. MMM tapped down to the 50 day MVA at its low of 115.84 Friday, but recovered to close back at its 10 day MVA, in the upper range of its former handle. Volume pulled up (2.14 million; average 2.4 million), and the increase is a good sign as the stock got support at the 50 day. We will see if it can make a move back up, breaking this short downtrend and moving out of the range of the handle.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move back over 122.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $120 calls to buy (MMM GD).

NVDA (Nvidia--$90.35; +4.74; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
BACKGROUND: The company last announced 5-16-00 after the close with earnings. Price was at $94, but the stock rose $8.74 that day in anticipation.
STATUS: NVDA is still looking pretty good, and remains high on the split radar screen. It held the range of its 18 day MVA (87.06) on its drop this week, and one of its possible up trendlines (connecting the March and May closing lows, at 88.50). The stock moved back up a bit Friday, moving on the lower volume characteristic of the session (4.26 million; average 5.6 million). The most recent drop came off of its new high (set intraday before a drop) at 100. It has made four moves up along this trendline, so we are careful with positions for upside moves at this point.
BUY POINT: Aggressive In a strong market, a move over 93.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $90 calls to buy (RVU HR).

OMC (Omnicom--$92.36; -0.72; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 12-16-97 at stock price of $70. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-22-01 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Testing the breakout of its cup with handle, and in a precarious position at the moment. It moved down to close below its 18 day MVA (92.65) Friday, not able to make a bounce up off of Thursday's doji. Volume was not strong (888,200; average 1.07 million), so we will see if it can hold here rather than continuing down to its 50 day MVA (90.09). Had been on a nice move out of a double bottom, but has not had the strongest volume on the move up, and the initial day of selling back from the high of 98.20 was quite strong. It needs to hold here.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move back over 94 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $90 calls to buy (OMC GR).

RJR (RJ Reynolds--$59.74; +0.26; optionable): Tobacco.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rjr.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RJR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 4-25-01 at 9:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Trying a move up, but there is not much strength there. The stock pierced through its 18 day MVA (58.80) Thursday, and tested that level Friday before making a slight move and showing a loose doji. It had bled steadily back after having failed in its breakout from a saucer pattern, but held the 50 day MVA (57.66) for the current move. We will see if it can gain some strength and move over some resistance from former highs in its cup pattern.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move back over 61 on increased volume near the average (299,300 Friday; average 445,000).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (RJR HK).

SRCL (Stericycle--$42.20; -0.63; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that SRCL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: We were looking at this one as a put play, but after three dojis under the 50 day MVA (42.33) the stock broke back through that level Thursday. It dipped back Friday to show a doji back under that level, with lower volume (200,700; average 252,500). Not a whole lot going on here, as we will need to see a strong move up for upside positions, and it has some reluctance to move down (witness the big volume on Thursday's move up). We will see if it tips it hand, but will lay off for now.

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

BRCD (Brocade--$38.80; -0.20; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: BRCD again tested back up toward its 50 day MVA (41.68), but could not muster any strength as volume dipped to a weak 9.7 million (average 14.8 million). The stock gapped down through that support Wednesday, and after tapping up twice to that level we continue to watch for a possible put play in market selling back. The low Wednesday was 35.80, which we will watch on a move down that, depending on the weakness of the market, could take the stock near 30. Could be a quick play, because in a rally we know BRCD can move to the upside.
BUY POINT: In a continued weak market, a move down on stronger volume close to the average, with July $45 puts to buy (UBF SI).

EMLX (Emulex--$36.30; +1.61; optionable (UMQ): Computer Hardware: Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: EMLX, like BRCD, has made a couple of weak moves in response to its hard drop off, gapping below its 50 day MVA (37.69) Wednesday on strong volume near the average (6.4 million; Friday down to 4.8 million). Friday's tight doji under resistance signals a possible retreat, looking at the 28-30 level initially as a target.
PLAY: A drop back on increased selling volume in a weak market, with July $40 puts to buy (UMQ SH).

IVX (Ivax--$35.20; +1.50; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 5:4 on May 21.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivx.html
STATUS: Got some good news on a drug product and the stock blasted up Wednesday, and continued the move up going into the end of the week. However, the stock looks to be pulling back now, as it gapped up Friday and closed with a doji with big volume (3.48 million; average 1.19 million). We will see where the pullback lands, looking at the 32-33 range (10 day MVA at 31.82, near the late-April high) for a possible consolidation level.
PLAY: A move up on continued strong volume after holding 32 on a pullback, with stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (IVX IF).

JNPR (Juniper--$42.79; +0.26; optionable (JUX): Computer Hardware http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Has dropped back out of a recent consolidation (in the 50-60 range), and is now trying to hold onto support in the 40 range. The selling was severe, with Wednesday's gap down on big volume taking the stock down to our initial target of 40 on a put play. The stock has recovered only slightly the last two sessions, showing loose dojis each day on decreasing volume (24 million Friday; average 29.3 million). It is weak, and on a drop back from here we can look for a put play, with April lows back below 30.
PLAY: After a fall back through 40 on increased selling volume, perhaps after a bounce up from the doji, July $50 puts to buy (JUX SJ).

SEBL (Siebel--$45.88; +0.52; optionable) (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: SEBL was not immune to the strong selling this week, but is trying to hold on to support. The stock recovered Thursday to close back over the 50 day MVA (56.31) after breaching that level the day before, but could not do much Friday as it showed a doji under its short-term MVA's (10 day at 50.72). Volume cooled back after Thursday's fairly strong move, coming in at 10.6 million (average 18.8 million). We are not looking at a put play yet, as we are with other techs, but we will keep a close eye on the stock to see if it holds support at the 50 day.
PLAY: In a strong market, a move back over the 10 day MVA with increased volume near the average, with stock and/or August $45 calls to buy (SGW HI).

STT (State Street--$54.35; -0.62; optionable): Banking. Split 2:1 effective 5-31-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Is testing its breakout from a pennant pattern handle (to a cup), showing a doji Friday as the stock hugs its 18 day MVA (54.53). We will see if it can garner the strength to hold support here and make a move up. The recent high on the breakout was 57.87.
PLAY: A move over 56 on above average volume (1 million; Friday 823,000), with stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (STT HJ).

STZ (Constellation Brands--$39.83; +1.18; optionable): Wineries. Split 2:1 May 15.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
STATUS: Has been quite strong post split, breaking from its small cup on the split and then shooting up again after testing the break. The stock gapped up and reversed Thursday, but after that topping sign the stock held over its 10 day MVA (38.30) and turned it back up. Volume remained rather low, so we will see if it can make a stronger move to a new high, but we will be carefully protecting positions as the stock has made a substantial move already.
PLAY: A move over 40 on above average volume, with stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (STZ GG).

Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock watch
stock split