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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1855.03
Resistance: 1860 to 1865 tried to hold a bit on the way down, but was not a major level of resistance. 1930 - 1935.
Support: The 18 day MVA (1816). The August high 1812 and 1814 held Thursday. 1776 the July high.
S&P 500: Closed at 1018.63
Resistance: 1030 to 1032. Then 1050.
Support: The top of the range at 1015 is weak support. June closing high at 1011 and the 18 day MVA (1011). The exponential 50 day MVA (996) and 975 (December 1997 peak). 965 (August 2002 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9471.55
Resistance: 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the recent range. 9735.
Support: The 18 day MVA (9436). 9361 the July intraday high down to 9353. The exponential 50 day MVA (9283). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high.
Economic Calendar
9-15-03
Business inventories, July (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.1% June.
Current account, Q2 (8:30): -$138.0B expected, -$136.1B Q1.
Industrial production, Aug. (9:15): 0.3% expected, 0.5% July.
Capacity utilization, Aug. (9:15): 74.7% expected, 74.5% July.
9-16-03
CPI, August (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% July.
Core CPI: 0.2% expected, 0.2% July.
FOMC meeting results (2:15)
9-17-03
Housing starts, August (8:30): 1.844M expected, 1.872M July
Permits, August (8:30): 1.800M expected, 1.800M July.
9-18-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 405K expected, 422K prior.
Leading economic indicators, August (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.4% July.
Philly Fed, September (12:00): 15.1 expected, 22.1 August.
FOMC minutes (2:00)
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: APOL; CECO; PRLS; PTEK; PTN; QCOM; TKLC; UOPX
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 09/13/2003
PLMD (Polymedica--$52.71; -0.4; optionable): Drugs. Splits 3:2 on 9/30/03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PLMD announced strong earnings and broke out of a 2 month cup with handle just 7 sessions back. It ahs been working laterally more or less, rising over the 10 day MVA (51.19), forming a flying plateau on low volume as it consolidates the breakout. Holding onto gains is a sign of excellent strength in a breakout, along with a relative strength breakout as well. We think PLMD may test the 10 day MVA (51.19) before continuing higher. We want to see a low volume test and then a strong break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 170.583K Avg Volume: 240.954K
BUY POINT: $51.45 Volume=325K Target=$60 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: PM LJ - Dec. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plmd.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
WERN (Werner Enterprises--$25.9; -0.12; optionable): Trucking. Splits 5:4 on 10/1/03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wern.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. WERN broke out of a 2.5 month cup with handle in July and is now moving up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA), rallying and then testing back to those levels before it rebounds again. It is making its second test, tapping the 10 day MVA (25.61) on the Friday low and showing a doji. In these tests on breakout runs, it is the doji on the 10 day MVA that we look for as the next entry point. Want to see a nice, strong volume surge off this level to enter.
Volume: 217.832K Avg Volume: 385.454K
BUY POINT: $26.25 Volume=400K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.18
POSITION: QEH KE - Nov. $25c &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wern.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/13/2003
MND (Mindspeed Technologies--$4.25; +0.02; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mnd.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. MND was a new issue in late June and immediately formed a 2 month cup base. It broke higher two weeks back and has since worked laterally over the 10 day MVA (4.07), tapping that on the lows and rebounding on the close. Money flow is outstanding, and relative strength broke out on the move and had held its own. We love new issues, and on a break higher on strong volume we will look to move in.
Volume: 468.1K Avg Volume: 1.2M
BUY POINT: $4.62 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.78 Stop=$3.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mnd.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
XRIT (X Rite--$12.02; +0.22; no options): Instrumentation for measuring color, light, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xrit.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. XRIT is ready to try the breakout from a 5 month triangle showing outstanding 9 to 1 accumulation (9 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume); that is about as solid as it comes. It has been using the 50 day MVA (10.96) as the support for the pattern, and has been bunching up over the 10 day MVA (11.67) the past two weeks, banging its head at 12 and attempting the breakout. Looks ready for the move.
Volume: 38.324K Avg Volume: 47.818K
BUY POINT: $12.22 Volume=72K Target=$14.66 Stop=$11.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xrit.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/11/2003
CVNS (Covansys--$6; 0; no options): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvns.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still in the handle of its 2 month base, holding flat Friday on extremely low volume. Low volume in the handle typically precedes the breakout. This is a nice base with excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume), strong money flow and relative strength. After volume rallied last week, the quiet trade, as noted, may presage the breakout move. An excellent base following the breakout from a 8 month cup with handle. A very nice base on base pattern that can lead to much stronger gains.
Volume: 12K Avg Volume: 91.5K
BUY POINT: $6.25 Volume=137K Target=$7.88 Stop=$5.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvns.html
Play Date: 09/04/2003
DSCO (Discovery Labs--$8.07; +0.02; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsco.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume edged higher Friday as DSCO showed another doji over the 10 day MVA (7.89), tapping that level on the low and bouncing up to show a hammer doji. Very good action in its 2 month flat base. Super money flow and relative strength. Accumulation is 2 to 0 in the base.
Volume: 274.059K Avg Volume: 574.727K
BUY POINT: $8.14 Volume=742K Target=$10.18 Stop=$7.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dsco.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$10.2; +0.16; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume was up Friday as EMBT tapped the 18 day MVA (9.60) on the low and rebounded for a modest gain. After the strong surge out of the 8 month base in August, EMBT has formed this nice lateral move to consolidate the break higher. It is now flexing its muscles, showing some volume spikes as it moves laterally. Outstanding money flow and accumulation. It looks ready.
Volume: 340.479K Avg Volume: 230.272K
BUY POINT: New: $10.45 (orig. $9.33) Volume=400K Target=$11.12 Stop=$9.42
POSITION: MBQ KB - Nov. $10c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 09/04/2003
HGSI (Human Genome Sciences--$15.62; -0.08; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HGIS has opted to form the handle to its 3 month base, edging back to the 10 day MVA (15.40) on the lows and showing consecutive dojis at that level. Volume has dropped below average on the pullback, something you want to see as the handle forms as it indicates no heavy selling, just a shakeout of the last weak holders that are ready to sell on any weakness. Now we just wait for this pullback to end and the stock to launch higher on a big volume spike.
Volume: 1.166M Avg Volume: 2.441M
BUY POINT: $16.48 Volume=3M Target=$19.68 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: HQI AC - Jan. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hgsi.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
NTPA (Netopia--$7.36; +0.16; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntpa.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Friday NTPA was trying to make the breakout move from the flying plateau but it did not have the volume to breakout and hold. The stock just broke out of a big, 21 month cup with handle base and surged from 5 to 7.51. After that strong move it has worked laterally for almost two weeks in a very tight, narrow range over the 10 day MVA (6.88), testing the 18 day MVA (6.54) on the intraday lows and rebounding. The price/volume action in this lateral move has been solid: up on gains, down on losses. Money flow is outstanding and relative strength is making another breakout.
Volume: 194.245K Avg Volume: 188K
BUY POINT: $7.35 Volume=325K Target=$9.35 Stop=$6.84
POSITION: NQD LU - Dec. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntpa.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03. Exploded higher on volume.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings. Doji at the 50 day MVA. We will see if it can rally.
BLUD: Forecast to announce a split on 10-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
CLE: No split announcement with board meeting 9-4-03. Doji at the 18 day MVA.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting. What a move off the 50 day MVA on volume. This little double bottom could lead to a big rush higher.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Hammer doji at the 50 day MVA.
CPWM: Forecast 9-30 with a board meeting. Still on the 50 day MVA.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03. Retailers are trying to recover with DG holding well at the 18 day MVA on the breakout test.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Has rallied back to the 18 day MVA, but not much volume.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. Will see if it can hold 90.
FDS: New information. Forecast 10-30-03 in conjunction with earnings.
FOSL: Forecast 11-11-03 with earnings. Doji did not hold it up as FOSL broke the 50 day MVA on volume. Dropping coverage for now.
GDW: Forecast 9-18 with a board meeting. Jumped off the 50 day MVA.
GILD: Forecast 10-30-03. Tapped the 50 day MVA and held. Will let it form back up and try another breakout move.
HAR: Forecast 10-29 with earnings. Flying plateau on the 10 day MVA. Looking for a break over 101.50.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03. Still working higher but low volume Friday.
JBLU: Forecast 10-23 with a board meeting. Started higher off the 10 day MVA but volume was low.
KRON: Forecast 10-28-03 with earnings. Down to the 50 day MVA. Disappointing.
KSWS: Forecast 10-28. Falling again below the 50 day MVA.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings. Held the 50 day MVA and now needs some stronger volume.
MERQ: Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03. Trying to hold support at 40.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03. Not much action at the 18 day MVA.
PIXR: No announcement with the shareholder meeting on 9-5-03. Doji at some support at 70.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. Still at the 18 day MVA.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings. Nice explosion higher on volume.
VRTS: Forecast 10-20-03 with earnings.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/13/2003
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$55.42; -0.07; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. PDCO is trying to shake off a year long base that saw it dip below 38 and then rally back to the old high near 55. It has spent the past six weeks working laterally below 56 and up the 18 day MVA (54.30), squeezing tighter between the two levels the past week. The range has narrowed, volume has calmed down. Now we just be patient and let PDCO make the breakout move.
Volume: 379.084K Avg Volume: 503.045K
BUY POINT: $56.78 Volume=755K Target=$68 Stop=$54.22
POSITION: DOU AK - Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/04/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$56.82; -0.23; optionable): Personal products. Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. ACV blasted out of a short 5 week base early this month following the breakout from a 6 month base in July. A market leader, ACV is making a nice, orderly pullback to test the trend. Thursday it showed a hammer doji on the 18 day MVA (56.93) as volume spiked higher. Looking for a strong turn back up on continued strong volume to enter new positions.
Volume: 297.6K Avg Volume: 248.227K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $57.88; breakout: $58.45 Volume=400K Target=$67.45 Stop=$56.58
POSITION: ACV JK - Oct. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$64.57; +0.01; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-23-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AVP undercut the 50 day MVA (63.19) in late August and then exploded higher as the buyers rushed back in. After reaching 67.25 it has drifted back during the market selling on mostly lower, below average volume. It has held the 18 day MVA (64.22) on the pullback, a level that is also marked by support from July and August tops. It is showing a nice, tight doji at that level, an indication the pullback is over. Want to see a strong volume break upside from here to enter this market leader.
Volume: 1.061M Avg Volume: 1.065M
BUY POINT: $66.05 Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 08/26/2003
FDS (Factset Research--$49.7; +0.1; optionable): Computer software information and delivery. Forecast to announce a split on 10-30-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 at a stock price of $69.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FDS blasted out of a 2 month double bottom with handle early in the month on solid volume. In the recent selling it has pulled back to test the move, holding the 18 day MVA (49) on the intraday lows. Friday FDS tapped the 18 day MVA and then rebounded on stronger, above average volume, showing a doji. A solid market leader, on a rebound move on continued strong volume it is an entry point.
Volume: 353.7K Avg Volume: 377.636K
BUY POINT: $50.38 Volume=600K Target=$59.88 Stop=$48.52
POSITION: FDS LJ - Dec. $50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fds.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$48.16; +0.72; optionable): Technical software. No announcement with 9-4 board meeting. Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $87. It has announced prior to that in the $45 to $50 range, so it is in the game. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company had sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Friday MERQ gapped down to the 18 day MVA (45.85) but then rallied back on a strong volume surge. It filled the gap that tested the breakout and started the rebound all in one move. The test is of the breakout from a 3 month reverse head and shoulder base. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the base. Now that it has filled the gap and sellers have rushed back in we will look to add to our positions on a further volume move.
Volume: 4.074M Avg Volume: 3.144M
BUY POINT: New: $48.45 (orig. $45.95) Volume=4.5M Target=$58 Stop=$42.73
POSITION: RQB AI - Jan. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/merq.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
XRAY (Dentsply--$44.29; +0.39; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Flat base. XRAY continues to move laterally over the simple 50 day MVA (43.24) in its 2 month base. Volume is mostly below average as it edges laterally. Accumulation is outstanding at 5 to 1, and money flow has now rallied up ahead of price. Friday XRAY was starting to rally off the 18 day MVA, but it could not get the volume. It looks ready to follow the money flow now.
Volume: 230.441K Avg Volume: 421.409K
BUY POINT: $44.65 Volume=625K Target=$53.55 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: XEQ AI - Jan. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 08/30/2003
BKST (Brookstone--$29.1; +0.27; no options): Splits 3:2 on 9-24-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkst.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. Moving laterally along the 18 day MVA (28.23), BKST is gathering its strength as volume jumps above average Thursday and Friday. It is getting its legs under it ahead of the split, and we are looking for another break higher on volume for additional or new positions. Money flow is racing up ahead of the price, and we expect price to follow.
Volume: 85.899K Avg Volume: 60.272K
BUY POINT: New: $29.55 (orig. $28.88) Volume=90K Target=$33.42 Stop=$27.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bkst.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 07/30/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$29.16; +0.11; optionable): Expensive coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally right at 29 and above the 10 day MVA (28.68). It is squeezing up between the 10 day and the 10 day and this resistance, and money flow is leading higher. Now all we need to see is SBUX follow it on some volume.
Volume: 1.952M Avg Volume: 3.147M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=6M Target=$35.45 Stop=$28.28
POSITION: SQX AF - Jan. $30c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$52.38; +0.29; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ZMH launched higher for us in late August in a strong breakout. It is a leader that needed a base, formed it, and then made the next breakout move. It has come back to test that move, tapping at the 18 day MVA (51.51) and rebounding Friday. Strong money flow and accumulation in the base, so all we need to see is volume jump back above average on the rebound for new positions.
Volume: 1.082M Avg Volume: 1.882M
BUY POINT: New: $52.62 (orig. $51.12) Volume=3M Target=$59.55 Stop=$51.42
POSITION: ZMH LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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