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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: APOL; CECO; CELL; GS; HBIO; JCOM; MERQ; MROI; PLXS; QCOM; SEAC; UOPX; XLNX
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Post-Split
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$27.25; +0.61; optionable): Video poker, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. IGT is on of the market horses. It broke out of a nice 3.5 month base in March and rallied up the 10 and 18 day MVA, throwing in a split in early July. It peaked at 27 in mid-July and fell into the current 2 month base. It has used the 50 day MVA (25.59) as support, a very solid indication of the stock's big money support. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 to 1 (2 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume; it only takes positive accumulation to set the foundation for a breakout). After trying a breakout move two weeks back, it has dropped to test the 18 day MVA (26.32) and started to rebound, forming the right shoulder. Tuesday volume jumped back up to average as IGT started to move for a breakout. Strong money flow and this looks to be a good point to get in on IGT.
Volume: 2.291M Avg Volume: 3.137M
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=4.7M Target=$33.25 Stop=$26.29
POSITION: IGT AY - Jan. $27.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/16/2003
MIL (Millipore--$47.83; +1.79; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mil.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. Another stock showing this accumulation pattern. MILL is trying to make the breakout from a 3 month base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. It broke higher a week back but then fell right back as the market did the same. Volume was very low on the pullback as MIL eased lower to the 18 day MVA (45.93). That indicates there were very few sellers as the stock underwent some mild profit taking. Tuesday MIL was up off of the 18 day MVA on a strong shot of above average volume. Relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock.
Volume: 404.7K Avg Volume: 343.681K
BUY POINT: $48.06 Volume=516K Target=$55.28 Stop=$45.78
POSITION: MIL AI - Jan. $45c (70 delta) or MIL AJ - Jan. $50c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mil.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
SFE (Safeguard Scientific--$3.68; +0.36; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfe.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SFE just broke out of its second base after coming off the October low, a nice 3 month cup. Accumulation in the base was positive at 3 to 2 (3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) and the break higher was on some serious volume. It never formed a handle on the breakout, but ran to 3.75 on the high and then backed off to form a post-breakout handle that is also working as a breakout test. Volume on the pullback has been lower and below average. Then Tuesday it bounced up off the 10 day MVA (3.32) on a strong volume surge. We are looking to move in as SFE moves past the early September high at 3.77. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 1.198M Avg Volume: 491.863K
BUY POINT: $3.85 Volume=600K Target=$4.62 Stop=$3.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sfe.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/02/2003
CRUS (Cirrus Logic--$6.37; +0.13; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crus.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CRUS 8.5 month cup with handle in August and ran to 6.90 on the high. The past two weeks it has moved laterally over the 10 day MVA (6.19) making higher lows over that level while pressing up against resistance at 6.50. That builds pressure for the next upside move. Looking for a strong, above average volume breakout over 6.50 to take new positions.
Volume: 679.474K Avg Volume: 1.609M
BUY POINT: New: 6.55 (orig. $6.41) Volume=2.3M Target=$8 Stop=$5.82
POSITION: CUQ LA - Dec. $5c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crus.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$10.4; +0.3; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. EMBT just needs some volume as it works laterally just over 10. This move follow the breakout from its 8 month base in August as EMBT consolidates that strong break higher. Outstanding money flow and accumulation.
Volume: 165.06K Avg Volume: 230.272K
BUY POINT: New: $10.45 (orig. $9.33) Volume=400K Target=$11.12 Stop=$9.53
POSITION: MBQ KB - Nov. $10c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 09/04/2003
HGSI (Human Genome Sciences--$15.57; -0.08; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the lateral handle to its 3 month base, moving toward the 18 day MVA (15.06) on lower, below average volume. It is a very pretty picture, but it has to make the break higher on strong volume to complete it.
Volume: 1.427M Avg Volume: 2.441M
BUY POINT: $16.48 Volume=3M Target=$19.68 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: HQI AC - Jan. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hgsi.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
MND (Mindspeed Technologies--$4.42; +0.27; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mnd.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Started higher Tuesday on rising volume, but not enough to push it to the breakout. Still looks very nice, on the verge of a breakout. MND was a new issue in late June and immediately formed a 2 month cup base. It broke higher two weeks back and has since worked laterally over the 10 day MVA (4.15), tapping that on the lows and rebounding on the close. Money flow is outstanding, and relative strength broke out on the move and had held its own.
Volume: 584.7K Avg Volume: 1.2M
BUY POINT: $4.62 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.78 Stop=$3.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mnd.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
NTPA (Netopia--$7.2; 0; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntpa.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. NTPA did not participate in the Tuesday rally, instead holding steady in a tight range on very low, below average volume. The stock just broke out of a big, 21 month cup with handle base and surged from 5 to 7.51. After that strong move it has worked laterally for almost two weeks in a very tight, narrow range over the 10 day MVA (7.05). Money flow is outstanding and relative strength is ready for another breakout.
Volume: 96.939K Avg Volume: 188K
BUY POINT: $7.35 Volume=325K Target=$9.35 Stop=$6.84
POSITION: NQD LU - Dec. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntpa.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
SEAC (Seachange Intl.--$12.30; 0.00; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/seac.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SEAC broke form a 14 week base to start the month and has now moved laterally the past week on below average volume, consolidating that gain. Tuesday volume jumped back up above average as SEAC posted a solid price move. Looks ready to make the continued move higher, proving up the base with this nice test and volume rebound.
Volume: 360.292K Avg Volume: 224.954K
BUY POINT: $12.37 Volume=345K Target=$14.85 Stop=$11.28
POSITION: UEG AV - Jan. $12.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/seac.html
Play Date: 09/10/2003
SRA (Serono--$16.7; 0; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sra.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SRA has spent the past week forming a handle to its 3 month base. The handle is a lateral, lower move on low volume that frustrates the impatient holders. They sell out after the stock has almost completed its base. That gets rid of the excess supply and then demand outstrips supply and the stock makes the breakout. Money flow is excellent. Just need to see the strong breakout on volume. Volume has spiked higher the past two sessions as SRA has held steady. It may be flexing a bit here ahead of a breakout.
Volume: 216K Avg Volume: 174.045K
BUY POINT: $16.85 Volume=261K Target=$20.25 Stop=$16.18
POSITION: SRA KC - Nov. $15c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sra.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03. Another big move higher on volume.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings. Trying to move off the 50 day MVA but low volume.
BLUD: Forecast to announce a split on 10-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
CLE: No split announcement with board meeting 9-4-03. Trying to rise off the 18 day MVA but no volume.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting. Another strong surge on above average volume.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Still working laterally at the 50 day MVA.
CPWM: Forecast 9-30 with a board meeting. Up off the 50 day MVA on better though still below average volume.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03. Still working in a flat range over the 18 day MVA.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. Over the short term MVA but still below average volume.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. Held support at 90 and rallying on much better volume.
FDS: New information. Forecast 10-30-03 in conjunction with earnings.
GDW: Forecast 9-18 with a board meeting. Trying to break over resistance at 88.
GILD: Forecast 10-30-03. Exited Monday and then it collapsed Tuesday.
HAR: Forecast 10-29 with earnings. Still in the flying plateau on the 10 day MVA. Looking for a break over 101.50.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03. Still working laterally over 34.
JBLU: Forecast 10-23 with a board meeting. Lateral move over the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
KRON: Forecast 10-28-03 with earnings. Needs to form back up.
KSWS: Forecast 10-28. Still struggling with the 50 day MVA.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings. Still working along the short term MVA.
MERQ: Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. Excellent move higher but on no volume.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03. Bounced off 40 but no volume.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03. Trying to form up at the 18 day MVA as it moves laterally between 36 and 38.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
PIXR: No announcement with the shareholder meeting on 9-5-03. Held support at 70, bouncing on low volume. Resistance at 72.50.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings. Another strong move on expanding volume.
VRTS: Forecast 10-20-03 with earnings.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/04/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$57.44; +0.02; optionable): Personal products. Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. After the quick intraday test toward the 50 day MVA (55.68) Friday, ACV has held over the 10 day MVA (57.29) on lower, below average volume. ACV blasted out of a short 5 week base early this month following the breakout from a 6 month base in July. It has tested toward the 50 day MVA on this move but we need to see it rally from here on strong volume. A good sign that it held over the July and August interim highs at 57.
Volume: 132.7K Avg Volume: 248.227K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $57.88; breakout: $58.45 Volume=400K Target=$67.45 Stop=$56.88
POSITION: ACV JK - Oct. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$64.75; +0.09; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-23-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Retail is starting to recover from the recent attempt to dump it, and AVP is doing it very well. After a run to 67 it has come back to hold support at 64 and the 18 day MVA (64.31), moving in a tight range. It is still showing tight dojis at that level. Looking for it to start back up on volume form this market leader.
Volume: 705.4K Avg Volume: 1.065M
BUY POINT: $66.05 Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
BLUD (Immucor--$27.11; +0.6; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Forecast to announce a split on 10-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-24-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a price of $24.45. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-15-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. BLUD broke from its flying plateau this week, but volume has not rallied with the move. The low volume typically results in another test as there are not enough buyers to push it higher. We will look for a test of the 10 day MVA (26.18) and then a volume move higher. Strong money flow and relative strength making the breakout.
Volume: 57.334K Avg Volume: 199.09K
BUY POINT: New: Test toward 26.25, then $26.55 on the rebound (orig. $25.88) Volume=304K Target=$31.12 Stop=$25.14
POSITION: QMQ LE - Dec. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 08/26/2003
FDS (Factset Research--$50.2; -0.78; optionable): Computer software information and delivery. Forecast to announce a split on 10-30-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 at a stock price of $69.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FDS tried to start the rebound from the breakout test Monday, moving higher on rising volume. It could not continue the move Tuesday, however, and taped back to the 18 day MVA (49.31) on the low. It managed to rebound and recoup most of the losses as volume spiked higher. FDS still looks solid, but it needs to hold the break higher into the close.
Volume: 572K Avg Volume: 377.636K
BUY POINT: $50.38 Volume=600K Target=$59.88 Stop=$48.52
POSITION: FDS LJ - Dec. $50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fds.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$58.31; +1.81; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 11-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $53. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-8-803 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After an attempted breakout on lower volume Monday PDCO started back up Tuesday on rising, average volume. We were tempted to move in, but wanted to see more trade. It may test back again toward the 10 day MVA (55.85) and then rebound, but if it continues the move on stronger volume we will take a partial position and then wait for the test to complete the buy.
Volume: 537.096K Avg Volume: 503.045K
BUY POINT: $56.78 Volume=755K Target=$68 Stop=$54.22
POSITION: DOU AK - Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
Play Date: 09/11/2003
VRTS (Veritas--$33.71; +1.09; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. VRTS continues to move laterally just below the 18 day MVA (33.49) on lower volume. Tuesday it started higher on a strong shot of above average trade. We still want to see it over 34 for aggressive positions, but would prefer a breakout over the September high.
Volume: 8.684M Avg Volume: 7.177M
BUY POINT: $36.64 Volume=1M Target=$41.55 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: VIV AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
XRAY (Dentsply--$44.6; +0.76; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Flat base. After the low volume lateral move, XRAY started higher Tuesday on a nice shot of above average volume. It is trying to make the breakout move from its 2 month base sporting outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation and money flow. Just want to see more of a breakaway move.
Volume: 438.475K Avg Volume: 421.409K
BUY POINT: New: $44.88 (orig. $44.65) Volume=625K Target=$53.55 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: XEQ AI - Jan. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 08/30/2003
BKST (Brookstone--$29.18; +0.77; no options): Splits 3:2 on 9-24-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bkst.html
STATUS: 18 day MVA test. BKST continues to move laterally over the 18 day MVA (28.35) as it consolidates its last break higher. It tends to rally, move laterally for two weeks, then rally again. Volume is starting to edge back up, and BKST was up off the 18 day MVA and looking solid Tuesday. Now we just need to see a breakaway move. Money flow continues to work higher as the stock moves laterally, a positive indication.
Volume: 88.323K Avg Volume: 60.272K
BUY POINT: New: $29.55 (orig. $28.88) Volume=90K Target=$33.42 Stop=$27.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bkst.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
PLMD (Polymedica--$55.3; +2.65; optionable): Drugs. Splits 3:2 on 9/30/03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a nice pullback to the 10 day MVA (52.16), PLMD jumped higher Tuesday on a nice surge in above average volume. PLMD broke out of a 2 month cup with handle then formed the current lateral move the past two weeks. Strong earnings along with the split helped break it higher. It never did test back as far as we wanted, but given the strength of the stock we are willing to move into some positions from here.
Volume: 332.254K Avg Volume: 240.954K
BUY POINT: New: 55.68 (orig. $51.45) Volume=325K Target=$63 Stop=$49.95
POSITION: PM LJ - Dec. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plmd.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
WERN (Werner Enterprises--$26.01; -0.01; optionable): Trucking. Splits 5:4 on 10/1/03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wern.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After reversing on the breakout attempt last week, WERN has shown excellent strength, moving laterally at 26, just over the 10 day MVA (25.74). After failing a break higher, the ability to continue to consolidate is a sign of strength. Tuesday volume was up but WERN went nowhere as it held a tight range. That can sometimes mean it is ready to make the next move. Volume has started to turn up, now we just need to see WERN do the same.
Volume: 414.675K Avg Volume: 385.454K
BUY POINT: New: $26.38 Volume=400K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.18
POSITION: QEH KE - Nov. $25c &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wern.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 07/30/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$29.41; +0.54; optionable): Expensive coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting to show life as it works laterally over the 10 day MVA (28.84) after the strong surge higher to end August. Volume is edging higher, but we want to see stronger trade as it continues. Very solid pattern.
Volume: 2.567M Avg Volume: 3.147M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=6M Target=$35.45 Stop=$28.28
POSITION: SQX AF - Jan. $30c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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