stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 4

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PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
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CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$39.39; +2.43; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 6-21-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: CHBS got hammered last week, but is trying to hang on. After dipping back Monday to close below its 50 day MVA (38) on low volume, the stock made a move back over that level today, as volume swelled to 531,400 (average 460,200). It could take a while to recover from the severe drop, but it is still in split range and we will watch it carefully as it approaches the forecast date.

CHV (Chevron--$97.70; -0.33; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 before the open in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm the date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chv.html
BACKGROUND: The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: With Exxon Mobil announcing, we are looking at some other of the big oils to follow suit, and CHV looks prime. Monday the stock moved up to the high limits of its ascending wedge pattern (formed on top of the cup with handle from which it broke in April a bullish base on base), but could not break out today. CHV pulled back slightly and showed a tight doji on strong volume (2.78 million; average 2.44 million), and we could see the stock test near support. We would look for it to hold the 10 day MVA (96.31), continuing the pattern of higher lows, for another try at breaking out. The stock shows very strong money flow, and relative strength is above the level made on the prior highs in this pattern.
BUY POINT: A move over 98.59 on volume of 3.3 million.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $95 calls to buy (CHV IS).

FISV (Fiserv--$57.14; +0.76; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-25-99 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $52. FISV's last two splits were announced in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The company currently has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FISV had been in a large descending wedge since September, forming a cup with handle in the last part of the pattern since March. The handle formed as the stock, rather than dropping back to its recent lows in the mid-40's after falling back from its down trendline (currently at 53.25), caught support at the 200 day MVA (52.05) on its last trip down. From that point the stock ran back up, breaking out to a high of 57.49 before testing the trendline. The stock is trying to break out again, but does not have any volume behind it on this move. Today volume was at 682,600 (average 1.46 million) as the stock move up near the recent high at 57.49. We will see if the stock pulls back to support or if it can move up with some volume behind it. Excellent relative strength, which has broken out on this move.
BUY POINT: Over 57.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (FTQ IK).

ADVP (Advancepcs--$63.99; +2.25; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP is making a move back up after having dipped out of its uptrend along its short-term MVA's (10 day and 18 day at 62.47 and 62.14, respectively) to test its 50 day (at 58.46). It is not unusual for a stock that is trending up to occasionally test its 50 day MVA. While the volume has been weak of late on upward moves, and was rather strong on the recent move down, today we finally got a decent move up as the stock took out its short-term MVA's. Volume was still below average, however, (812,300; average 951,000), and the stock closed off of its intraday high at 65.30. The stock is going to have to show us a strong move back toward its high of 68.59.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move over 65.30 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (QVD FL).

FDC (First Data--$68.36; +0.57; optionable): Working on a forecast date. Earnings were announced on 4-12-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2 for 1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FDC found support at its 50 day MVA (64.32), which is in the range of the highs from its former cup pattern, but its steady move up is showing signs of topping. The stock has gapped up each of the last three sessions, showing dojis each day, today closing just below the high of 68.76 as volume rose but remained below the average at 1.4 million (average 1.7 million). We will see if it can hold the 10 day MVA (66.58) on a pullback, then try again to make a strong move up. The stock has failed twice in the 68 range since the breakout.
BUY POINT: Aggressive After holding the 10 day on a move back down, a move back over 68 on increased volume.
POSITION: Aggressive Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (FDC HM).

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.

OKE (Oneck--$42.04; -0.77; no options): Utility. Splits 2:1 effective June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oke.html
STATUS: The stock had been moving in a pennant, but sold back to its most recent low in the pattern last week, ending the pattern of making higher lows. It caught support at its 200 day MVA (41.62) on the last drop, but the move up stalled as the stock pulled back to test that level today. In so doing it closed below its 50 day MVA (42.47). It splits in a week, so we will see if it can make a move back up, looking hard at the May high of 44.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over 43, with stock.

SDS (Sungard Data--$61.50; -1.30; optionable): Announced a 2:1 split, effective June 18.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Has made a nice move up since testing the breakout (back at the 60 range) from a cup with handle, but pulled back today. The stock held the 10 day MVA (60.80) at its low of 61.07, but the drop was on strong volume (1.18 million; average 885,000). We will see if it holds and can give us another move going toward the split. The high (an intraday move from May), is at 64.50.
PLAY: After holding the 10 day MVA, a move back up, with stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (SDS GK). Breakout 63.13 on volume of 1.3 million, with stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (SDS GL).

SHFL (Shuffle Master--$29.60; +0.35; optionable): Manufacturing. Splits 2:1 effective June 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: The stock has been a steady mover, running up from the 12 range since last December, but fell abruptly last week and Monday, testing the 50 day MVA (27.77). The stock gapped down today to that level, but pushed back up intraday. We will need to see more evidence of a strong move up, but there are two weeks to go before the split. Its recent move before the drop was up to 34.95.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over 32, with stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (SFQ GF low open interest).

FCEL (Fuelcell--$80.05; +0.05; optionable): Announced a stock split Thursday, as forecast! Splits 2:1 effective June 20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcel.html
STATUS: After a good move on the announcement the stock is holding its short-term MVA's (79.15 and 77.52, respectively), with consecutive dojis over the 10 day this week. Volume has dipped way back (473,000; average 846,300), but holding this support is encouraging after recovering from selling that had taken it back into the range of its handle to its former cup with handle pattern. We will see if it can continue to hold here and build strength for a pre-split run back toward the breakout high of 93.44.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over 82, with stock and/or July $75 calls to buy (FQG GO).

ESRX (Express Scripts--$100.26; -3.49; optionable): Announced a 2:1 stock split as forecast! Splits 2:1 effective on or about June 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Has made a very strong move off of its split announcement, and after a pullback to test the 10 day MVA (97.72), the stock ran back up to break over its february high. It pulled back today, showing a 'tweezer' pattern last two days, indicating a pullback. However, we will see if it can hold this level (the 10 day MVA is at 97.72), perhaps consolidating a bit before a move back up. The late December high is at 107.
PLAY: After showing it can hold here, a strong move back up, with stock and/or August $95 calls to buy (XTQ HS low open interest).

FHCC (First Health Group--$51.04; +0.54; no options): The 2:1 split is effective June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/f/fhcc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-19-98 at a stock price of $29.57. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-22-01.
STATUS: Since breaking from a cup in April FHCC has been bouncing around a bit. The stock held its May lows in the 50 range on its recent pullback, edging up since then. The stock moved back over its short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 50.72 and 50.69, respectively) today, as volume picked up to 517,500 (average 437,000). The move is not looking strong at this point.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A strong move back over 52, with continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock.

LOW (Lowe's--$71.18; +1.09): Splits 2:1 on or about June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: LOW made a great move going into it announcement, breaking from a cup with handle. Since then the stock has pulled back to its 10 day MVA (69.83), consolidating a bit before inching up today. Volume was up at 2.9 million (average 3.36 million), but the stock could only manage a doji. We will see if the stock pulls back or if it can move to a new high, over 73.70. Excellent money flow and relative strength.
BUY POINT: Pullback A move up on increased volume after pulling back and holding the 10 day MVA, with stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (LOW GM). New high To a new high on increased volume, with stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (LOW GN).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$56.88; +0.53; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 9:30 ET.
STATUS: ASFC held the 50 day MVA (55.89) on the drop back from its handle consolidation (formed after its broke from a saucer pattern in late April). It has moved up the last two sessions, taking out the short-term MVA's today (18 day at 56.52), but it is again suffering from the problem it has had every time it tries to make a move up: lack of volume. We need to see some volume behind a move back up toward the high of 58.50.
BUY POINT: Breakout Over 58.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (AQR GK).

BBT (BB&T--$36.40; +0.07; optionable): Banking.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbt.html
BACKGROUND: The company has declared 21:20 splits in 1996 and 1997. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but just enough for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Held on at the 50 day MVA (35.91) but is having trouble mounting a move back up. It is still moving in the range of January-March consolidation, back in that range for over a month after having recovered from a dip back near 31. It has had a tough time with the 37 level, on which it banged its head several times recently. Today's doji over the 10 day MVA (36.25) does not hint at a big move coming, but we will see if it holds and is finally able to make a move.
BUY POINT: A move over 37.25 on above average volume (801,000; today 501,900).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (BBT FG).

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$69.91; +0.21; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Did not show us much on the recent breakout from its cup with handle, pulling back below the breakout point (70.40) before finding support at 68. The stock has inched back over its short-term MVA's (10 day at 69.54), showing a doji as volume continues to be low (72,300; average 162,500). We will need to see a strong move up, but the breakout high was 72.90.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A strong move back over 72 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (CBH FN).

CECO (Career Education--$54.65; +1.94; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: CECO has been trying to make a move, and today reached up to 56.10 before pulling back to close. Volume was high at 472,200 (average 267,000), and the close well off of the intraday high indicates a pullback is coming. We will see if it can hold the 52 level (10 day MVA at 51.69), and have a more orderly, sustained move up. On this run it has been all over the place, with inconsistent volume.
BUY POINT: A move back over 54 on continued strong volume after a lower volume pullback to the 52 level.
POSITION: Stock only.

Ens Part 3 of 4

stock watch
stock split