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Begin part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1905.70
Resistance: 1930 - 1935. 1975 is roughly 150 points on this 18 day MVA bounce. Then 2000 to 2050.
Support: 1889 (early September highs) may provide some support now. 1860 to 1865. The 10 day MVA (1873). The 18 day MVA (1847). The August high 1812 and 1814 held Thursday.
S&P 500: Closed at 1036.30
Resistance: 1050. Then 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 to 1150, the early 2002 double top.
Support: 1030 to 1032 (early September highs) may act as some support now. The 18 day MVA (1019) and the top of the range at 1015. The exponential 50 day MVA (1002) and 975 (December 1997 peak). 965 (August 2002 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9644.82
Resistance: 9735. 9800 (April and May 2002 lows).
Support: 9609 (early September highs) make act as some support. 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the recent range along with the 18 day MVA (9499). 9353 (top of summer range). The exponential 50 day MVA (9336). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high.
Economic Calendar
9-25-03
Durable goods orders, August (8:30): 0.6% expected, 1.0% July.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 410K expected, 399K prior.
Existing home sales, August (10:00): 6.07M expected, 6.12M July.
New home sales, August (10:00): 1.11M expected, 1.165M July.
9-26-03
Q2 GDP, final (8:30): 3.1% expected.
Michigan sentiment, final for September (9:45): 89.2 expected, 88.2 prior.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: SWIR; SSYS; SPRT; CKR; GLFD; NERX; NTOP; NVAX
Thursday night play results:
IMCO: Still testing the 10 day MVA on a very nice breakout test.
SCMR: The rebound took a day off Friday.
NEOF: Tried the big move but gave it all back. Still in good shape.
SBUX: Another one that tried to run but did not make it.
New Plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/20/2003
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$3.85; -0.14; no options): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. EGOV blasted higher Monday on a strong volume surge but then settled back the rest of the week to test the 10 day MVA (3.71) on lower volume and form the handle to the pattern. Thi handle is the move back off the high that frustrates those that bought at the old high and thought it was going higher again. They sell out, and once they are gone there is no more supply and the stock can make the breakout move. The base is a nice 10 week pattern excellent 40 to 0 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is up ahead of price even if it pulls back, and relative strength made the breakout on the Monday move, a good indication of the underlying stock strength. Looking for a rebound on rising, above average volume.
Volume: 143.9K Avg Volume: 175.68K
BUY POINT: $4.12 Volume=264K Target=$5.15 Stop=$3.83
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/egov.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
TXCC (Transwitch--$2.4; 0; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txcc.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. TXCC exploded out of an 11 week flat base to start the month, doubling in price on a huge volume surge. It peaked out at 3.19 and then fell to test the move, making almost a complete breakout test. Friday it tapped the 18 day MVA (2.30) on the low and rebounding on strong volume to finish flat and show a nice doji. After a run up or down a doji can indicate a momentum change. In other words it can indicate the selling is done and the stock is ready to move back up off this support. Positive accumulation in the base and strong money flow. Need to see a moe back up through some congestion at 2.50 on strong trade and tehn we catch it on the move back up.
Volume: 2.559M Avg Volume: 1.224M
BUY POINT: $2.65 Volume=2.8M Target=$3.44 Stop=$2.44
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/txcc.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
UPC (Union Planters--$33.11; +0.08; optionable): Southeast regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upc.html
STATUS: Flat base. UPC is trying the breakout move from a 3.5 month base showing outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation. Financial stocks have been quietly under accumulation, and UPC is an example of that buying. At the end of last week UPC started up on a strong volume surge, moving to the top of the range. Money flow is strong and leading the way, and we look for UPC to continue the move and make the breakout.
Volume: 777.1K Avg Volume: 537.429K
BUY POINT: $33.36 Volume=806K Target=$38.35 Stop=$32.32
POSITION: UPC BZ - Feb. $32.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/upc.html
Continuing plays that look ready:
Play Date: 08/20/2003
QRSI (QRS Corp.--$9.12; +0.22; no options): Computer software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qrsi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QRSI broke out of from its 8 month cup with handle base in late August, rested, and then broke higher once more. It reached 9.49 in early September and has since worked laterally over the 18 day MVA (8.75) on very low, below average volume, putting together a very nice consolidation of the breakout. Friday it was up on a sharp volume surge back up to average trade, a vast improvement. Money flow continues to lead higher and the stock looks ready to follow it from here.
Volume: 114.32K Avg Volume: 132.888K
BUY POINT: New: $9.28 (orig. $8.60) Volume=184K Target=$10.72 Stop=$8.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qrsi.html
Continuing plays that still look good: LNUX; LSI; NXTL; ORCC; SKYW; TQNT; WFR; WMGI
* * *
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
Not many of these stocks are in decent shape at the moment. KKD and UTSI are trying to set up downtrends while TGT, OCR, and GTRC trying to base. DIS is trying to hold on but has set up a toppy pattern with a head and shoulders.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 55.5 +0.68 0 0 576K 0 0
Bounced up off the 18 day MVA test on some good volume, but lost the stronger trade Friday as it tried to make the breakout. If volume comes back in, it is an aggressive buy. It is in the later stage bounces of a long run up the short term MVA and will need to test back lower toward the 50 day MVA.
* * *
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGRB 08/28 Rv H&S 3.24 +0.06 3.02 3.95 2.7M 6.7M 2.96
AMZN 05/03 BO 47.58 -0.31 30.3 35.45 6.3M 12M 45.83
Current. Pull back on lower, below average volume.
ANSR 08/11 Cup hdl 3.8 -0.07 3.43 4.22 22K 350K 3.62
Current. Tested above the 10 day MVA but could not hold the gain to close under the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
ARTG 09/13 Cup hdl 2.78 +0.04 2.84 3.68 451K 1.3M 2.55
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and close higher on lower, below average volume.
ARTG 08/12 Test 50 2.78 +0.04 2.26 2.72 451K 1M 2.55
Current.
ASPT 08/09 Test BO 8.58 -0.03 8.06 10.12 387K 791K 8.42
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA to rally and close holding the 18 day MVA on higher, below average volume.
AUDC 09/06 Cup 8.4 +0.32 7.16 9 158K 461K 6.54
Buy Not Issued. Continue to ascend on low volume.
AVAN 09/17 Cup 2.68 -0.08 2.81 3.42 618K 658K 2.61
Current. Moved down on much lower, but below average volume.
AVNX 09/15 Test BO 6.25 -0.21 6.32 7.5 865K 1.3M 5.88
Current. Pull back to close above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
AVNX 09/03 Cup hdl 6.25 -0.21 5.74 6.65 865K 1M 5.95
Current.
AVNX 08/14 Flat 6.25 -0.21 4.68 5.92 865K 2M 5.95
Current.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 31.75 +0.23 19.58 23.25 153K 376K 28.85
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 6.67 +0.15 5.54 6.94 703K 1.4M 6.34
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA to rally and move up and close over the 10 day MVA on higher, below average volume.
CKR 09/15 Cup hdl 7.85 +0.16 7.45 9.38 875K 407K 7.18
Current. Nice move up on higher, above average volume.
CPST 09/10 Test BO 2.04 -0.03 2.48 3 1.3M 2M 2.16
Exited. Continued to move down so exited at the stop loss.
CYTO 09/13 Cup hdl 12.39 +0.03 11.14 13.32 163K 463K 11.05
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
DCEL 08/21 Flat 8.66 -0.03 7.75 9.68 1.7M 800K 8.62
Exited. Took the rest of the gain off the table with a trailing
stop.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 20.48 +0.03 22.06 26.48 8.8M 9M 21.12
DRIV 08/25 Cup hdl 30.15 -0.44 25.75 30.25 604K 1.7M 28.55
Current. Tapped 29.84 to rally and close down on lower, below average volume.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 30.15 -0.44 24.18 27.48 604K 1.7M 28.55
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 54.91 -0.69 34.72 46 8.9M 12M 53.02
Current. Could be starting a handle just below 56 to its 2.5
month double bottom that has been forming.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 54.91 -0.69 31.22 46 8.9M 12M 53.02
Current.
FSII 09/08 Cup hdl 5.05 +0.03 5.43 6.92 508K 320K 5.02
Current. Opened below the 18 day MVA to move up on close higher on above average volume.
GLFD 09/09 Cup hdl 7.04 +0.25 6.35 7.85 539K 800K 6.54
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rebound and move up for a nice gain on higher, but average volume.
HL 08/04 Cup hdl 6.67 +0.07 6.07 7.28 1.7M 1.7M 6.45
Current. Opened on the 18 day MVA to rebound and close on the 10 day MVA on higher, above average volume.
IMCO 09/18 Test BO 7.52 -0.11 7.88 9.85 90K 225K 7.33
Buy Not Hit. Pull back to close just above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 29.17 +0.01 25.88 30.95 54M 75M 28.18
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rally and close fractionally higher on higher, but slightly below average volume.
IRM 09/10 Put 35.76 +1.03 34.55 32 969K 500K 35.55
Current. Tapped 34.27 at the day's low to rebound and close on the 18 day MVA on higher, above average volume.
JNPR 08/20 Flat 16.41 -0.26 15.45 18.68 6.1M 15M 16.45
Exited. Took the rest of the money off the table with a trailing
stop.
LNUX 08/30 Test BO 5.59 +0.08 4.05 6.38 2.5M 3M 5.08
Current. Opened higher but could not maintain the entire gain to close slightly higher on higher, but average volume.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 25.08 -0.03 29.06 35 785K 1.3M 27.03
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA to rally and close fractionally lower forming a doji on higher, above average volume.
LSI 09/16 A Wedge 11.96 +0.21 11.99 14.38 4.7M 6M 11.18
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
LUV 09/11 Cup hdl 18.5 -0.17 18.54 22.25 3.2M 3.7M 18.02
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA to rally and close down on higher, above average volume.
MLHR 08/09 Test BO 24.19 +0.22 22.95 27.42 281K 325K 23.54
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA to rally and move up to close above the 10 day MVA on lower, but above average volume.
MROI 08/27 Cup hdl 14.52 -0.01 14.3 17.15 237K 163K 13.88
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA to rally and close fractionally lower forming a tight doji on higher, above average volume.
MRVC 09/11 Test 18 3.4 +0.01 2.81 3.68 1.9M 1.3M 2.98
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, above average volume.
MRVC 09/03 Cup 3.4 +0.01 2.65 3.68 1.9M 1M 2.98
Current.
NEOF 08/25 Rv H&S 16.49 +0.04 14.22 16.97 275K 106K 15.96
Current. Fractional move up on higher, above average volume. Tapped 17.19 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain.
NERX 09/16 Cup hdl 5.47 +0.72 4.05 5.12 605K 156K 5.12
Current. Hit the target in another super move. We did not,
however, want to stand in its way and are letting it run.
NTOP 08/20 A Wedge 7.42 +0.45 5.9 7 1.9M 300K 6.78
Current. Nice move up on excellent volume surge.
NVAX 09/03 DB hdl 7.38 +0.32 6.75 8.39 242K 302K 6.88
Current. Gapped up at the open and moved higher on higher above average volume.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 19.98 +0.13 20.28 24.35 20M 24M 19.02
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA to rally and move up on slightly lower, but above average volume.
OCR 08/09 Test 50 32.94 -0.74 0 0 1.2M 0 0
ORCC 09/15 Cup hdl 7.39 0 6.99 8.81 48K 165K 6.88
Current. Tapped 7.49 at the day's high to rebound and close flat forming a tight doji on much lower, below average volume.
PTN 09/09 Rv H&S 4.65 -0.11 4.15 5.25 201K 329K 4.29
Current. Tapped 4.50 at the day's low to rebound and close down on higher, average volume.
QCOM 08/21 DB hdl 45.05 -0.68 40.52 48.65 12M 12M 43.32
Current. Pull back on lower, but average volume.
QRSI 08/20 Cup hdl 9.12 +0.22 8.6 10.72 114K 184K 8.68
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA to move up and close above the 10 day MVA on higher, but average volume.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 29.19 -0.39 29.77 36 3.3M 6M 28.55
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 29.19 -0.39 26.3 30.94 3.3M 6M 28.52
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA to rally and close down, but above the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, above average volume.
SCMR 09/18 Test BO 5 -0.07 5.22 6.55 3.3M 2M 4.79
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on lower, but above average volume.
SINA 09/09 Cup 40.23 -0.72 36.15 41 5.3M 12M 37.22
Current. Pull back on lower, below average volume.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 40.23 -0.72 32.2 38.25 5.3M 10M 37.22
Current.
SKYW 09/06 Cup hdl 19.68 -0.27 20.75 24.88 289K 789K 19.18
Current. Tested below 10 day MVA to rebound and close on the 10 day MVA forming a doji on lower, below average volume.
SPRT 08/28 A Wedge 11.5 +1.19 10.28 12.35 1.5M 910K 9.83
Current. Explosive move up on strong volume surge.
SSYS 09/02 BO 49.83 +4.11 47 56 1.1M 629K 44.76
Current. Made the breakout from a new cup with handle on some
huge volume!
STEL 09/13 Cup hdl 9.01 -0.18 8.97 10.82 192K 280K 8.48
Current. Pull back on lower, but slightly above average volume.
SWIR 09/08 Test BO 13.67 +1.68 12.29 14.65 2.2M 425K 12.25
Current. Moved off the 10 day MVA with an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
TGT 08/09 Flat 39.24 -0.36 41.45 50 2.9M 5.7M 38.74
Current. Tested the simple 50 day MVA to rally and close below the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume.
TQNT 08/27 A Wedge 6.61 +0.03 5.27 6.58 1.3M 2.2M 6.22
Current. Fractional move up on lower, below average volume. Stock continue to make a low volume lateral move.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 36.76 +0.03 28.06 31.44 289K 494K 34.25
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA to rally and close fractionally higher on much lower, below average volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 36.76 +0.03 23.42 27.62 289K 603K 34.25
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 36.76 +0.03 21.88 26 289K 603K 34.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 36.76 +0.03 19.3 22.19 289K 577K 34.25
Current.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 41.8 +0.44 28.8 34.12 1.1M 2.1M 38.12
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 41.8 +0.44 23.45 28 1.1M 2M 38.12
Current.
VRSN 09/11 Rv H&S 15.33 -0.51 16.29 19.55 3.8M 5.5M 15.15
Buy Not Hit. Tested support at 15 to rebound and close above the 18 day MVA on higher, above average volume.
WFR 09/13 Test BO 13.08 +0.08 14.05 16.88 213K 750K 13.07
Buy Not Hit. Tested below the 18 day MVA to rally and close higher above the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Tested above the 10 day MVA at the day's high but could not hold the gain.
WMGI 09/10 Flat 25.28 -0.1 26.04 31.25 88K 400K 24.68
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA to rally and close fractionally lower, but above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
YHOO 09/04 Rv H&S 37.24 -0.34 34.9 42 12M 20M 34.54
Current. Volatile session with 37.80 at the day's high and 36.80 at the day's low. Pull back on lower, but average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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