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Begin part 2 of 3
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1905.70
Resistance: 1930 - 1935. 1975 is roughly 150 points on this 18 day MVA bounce. Then 2000 to 2050.
Support: 1889 (early September highs) may provide some support now. 1860 to 1865. The 10 day MVA (1873). The 18 day MVA (1847). The August high 1812 and 1814 held Thursday.
S&P 500: Closed at 1036.30
Resistance: 1050. Then 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 to 1150, the early 2002 double top.
Support: 1030 to 1032 (early September highs) may act as some support now. The 18 day MVA (1019) and the top of the range at 1015. The exponential 50 day MVA (1002) and 975 (December 1997 peak). 965 (August 2002 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9644.82
Resistance: 9735. 9800 (April and May 2002 lows).
Support: 9609 (early September highs) make act as some support. 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the recent range along with the 18 day MVA (9499). 9353 (top of summer range). The exponential 50 day MVA (9336). 9250 to 9236, the early June intraday high.
Economic Calendar
9-25-03
Durable goods orders, August (8:30): 0.6% expected, 1.0% July.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 410K expected, 399K prior.
Existing home sales, August (10:00): 6.07M expected, 6.12M July.
New home sales, August (10:00): 1.11M expected, 1.165M July.
9-26-03
Q2 GDP, final (8:30): 3.1% expected.
Michigan sentiment, final for September (9:45): 89.2 expected, 88.2 prior.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: BKST; BLUD; COLM; ENCY; IT; MATK; MOBE; PTEK; SEAC
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Splits:
Play Date: 09/20/2003
CELL (Brightpoint--$32.01; +0.33; optionable): Wholesale electronics. Splits 3:2 on 10-16-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CELL is clicking off splits fast and furiously, announcing another 3:2 just 2 weeks after its first split became effective. It surged up to 32.50 and has moved laterally at that level the past three sessions as volume moved back below average. That is the volume you want to see as a strong stock consolidates a gain in this lateral, flat and tight pattern. Strong indicators across the board from this market leader. It may take a few more sessions to complete the lateral consolidation. A market leader and we just need to be patient and let it make the move on volume.
Volume: 452.131K Avg Volume: 358.511K
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=538K Target=$39.45 Stop=$30.94
POSITION: ULN AG - Jan. 35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COH (Coach--$58.68; +0.05; optionable): Handbags, etc. Splits 2:1 on 10-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: After a dip toward the 50 day MVA (55.22) a week back, COH has made a recovery though on lower, below average volume. After tapping back up at 59.65 and the early September high on Wednesday it has started a lateral move over the 50 day MVA (58.04) on lower volume. Friday volume did jump back up to average, however, as COH showed a nice, tight doji. We are looking for COH to complete this lateral rest stop after the rebound and then break through the old resistance on strong volume. The surge in volume Friday may indicate it is ready to make the move now.
Volume: 750.8K Avg Volume: 822.722K
BUY POINT: $59.49 Volume=1.2M Target=$68.45 Stop=$57.94
POSITION: COH KL - Nov. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/20/2003
ATCO (American Technology--$7.42; -0.17; no options): Listening devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ATCO broke from a 3 month cup base to start the month, rallied to 7.85, an is now test the move, falling ot the 10 day MVA (7.31) on mostly lower volume. Accumulation in the base was a solid 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That action shows big money moving into the stock slowly and surely in the base and then sending it higher on the high volume breakout. Money flow continues to rise as ATCO tests back. A solid breakout and a good looking test. Now we wait for ATCO to start back up on another volume surge.
Volume: 107.94K Avg Volume: 98.991K
BUY POINT: $7.62 Volume=148K Target=$9.22 Stop=$7.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atco.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
DCGN (Decode Genetics--$4.08; +0.06; no options): Gene based diagnostics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcgn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Many stocks are in the breakout test mode. DCGN broke out of its base a week back on strong volume and then came back to test that move last week. It tapped at the 18 day MVA (3.72) Friday and then rebounded for a gain on very strong trade. That is the characteristic action you like to see in a test that signals it is ready to make the move back up. Accumulation in the 3 month base is an outstanding 6 to 1. Strong across the board, and we are looking for DCGN to continue the move on volume and then move in.
Volume: 628.455K Avg Volume: 223.131K
BUY POINT: $4.18 Volume=315K Target=$5.22 Stop=$3.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dcgn.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
ELAB (Eon Labs--$39.26; +0.36; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elab.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. A new issue in May 2002, ELAB stormed higher to 40, and has now formed its third base, a reverse head and shoulders with a nice double bottom off some support at 30. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2. It rallied just over 40, right at the pattern high in July, and then backed off to end the week, tapping at the 10 day MVA (38.21) on very low, below average volume. We will watch for the breakout on strong trade and move in at that time.
Volume: 123.093K Avg Volume: 272.769K
BUY POINT: $40.88 Volume=409K Target=$49 Stop=$38.12
POSITION: ESQ AH - Jan. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/elab.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/18/2003
ET (E-Trade Group--$10.1; -0.06; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/et.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. After the strong surge up to the July high ET is now moving laterally just over 10. Friday it held its ground on very low, below average volume after trade had surged early in the week. Still looks ready for the breakout from its 10 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 3.442M Avg Volume: 4.773M
BUY POINT: $10.48 Volume=7M Target=$12.58 Stop=$9.75
POSITION: ET AB - Jan. $10c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/et.html
Play Date: 09/04/2003
HGSI (Human Genome Sciences--$15.75; +0.17; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Friday and then tapped the 18 day MVA (15.22) on the low in a wild session. Volume remained low and below average, however, as HGSI continues to work on the handle to its 3 month base. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation. Still being patient and waiting for a strong volume breakout move.
Volume: 1.232M Avg Volume: 2.16M
BUY POINT: $16.48 Volume=3M Target=$19.68 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: HQI AC - Jan. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hgsi.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
SFE (Safeguard Scientific--$3.79; -0.07; no options): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfe.html
STATUS: Testing the brekaout. SFE surged to a breakout in early September, tested the 10 day MVA, and then started up again on strong volume. It fizzled out some to end the week, showing a tight doji with a long tail Friday, tapping the 10 day MVA (3.55) on the low and rebounding to recover most all of the loss. Excellent accumulation and money flow along with a relative strength breakout. Looking for the rebound on some rising volume and then moving in at the next buy point.
Volume: 794.9K Avg Volume: 625.037K
BUY POINT: New: $3.98 (orig. $3.85) Volume=600K Target=$4.62 Stop=$3.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sfe.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3. Up again Friday but lower volume and showing a doji just over the early Sept. high.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 9-22-03. Wild action Friday, tapping the 10 day MVA but recovering. Set for Monday and we are going to let APOL makes its announcement. We can look for further positions on the news.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
BBBY: Forecast to announce a split 9-24 with earnings. Still working laterally at the 50 day MVA on below average volume.
BLUD: Announced early with after hours after posting its second consecutive strong session. Surging well the past two sessions.
CLE: No split announcement with board meeting 9-4-03. Running out of steam on low volume below the early September high at 36.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes. Rallying well to end the week.
CPWM: Forecast 9-30 with a board meeting. Volume is rallying as CPWM moves up to the July high. Needs to break here on strong volume.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03. Continues to work laterally over the 18 day MVA as volume dries up.
DHR: Forecast 9-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. No announcement with a board meeting.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting. A doji on continued low volume after breaking to a new high.
FDS: New information. Forecast 10-30-03 in conjunction with earnings. Unable to break over the 50 day.
GDW: Forecast 9-18 with a board meeting. The low volume move up was hit with higher volume selling Friday.
HAR: Forecast 10-29 with earnings.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03. Finally took a breather after surgin higher.
JBLU: Forecast 10-23 with a board meeting. Continues its climb up the 10 day MVA though flattening out at 59.
KRON: Forecast 10-28-03 with earnings. Up over the 50 day on better volume but still a big question mark.
KSWS: Forecast 10-28. Back over the 50 day on rising, above average volume. Trying to recover on the NKE news.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings. Moving very well, breaking to a new high on volume after turning in a higher low and a 50 day MVA test.
MERQ: Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings. Took a breather Friday after a strong move.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03. Moving well but still no volume.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03. Continues to rally up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
PIXR: No announcement with the shareholder meeting on 9-5-03. Trying to get over resistance at 72.50. Need to see it move on volume.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. Gapped higher but sold back to the 10 day MVA on much stronger volume.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 9-22 with earnings. Nice lateral move at 70 after making the move higher.
VRTS: Forecast 10-20-03 with earnings. Up off the 50 day MVA and now moving laterally, taking a breather.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03. Gapped higher yet again, traded in a wild range on stronger volume, and then rallied back to hold the gain.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$60; -0.3; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 in conjunction with earnings or 11-20-03 at its shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. COCO is setting up well again, having formed a double bottom over the past 5 weeks, using the 50 day MVA (55.04) as the bottom. After a strong surge off the 50 day MVA the past two weeks it is drifting laterally the past two sessions on below average volume. 2 to 0 accumulation in the short base, strong money flow, and relative strength ready for another breakout. It looks as if it will need a few more sessions to form up, testing back toward the 10 day MVA (58.39) in the process. We look for the test and then strong breakout to jump all over this one.
Volume: 661.751K Avg Volume: 742.446K
BUY POINT: $59.55 Volume=1.1M Target=$69 Stop=$58.22
POSITION: UCS BL - Jan. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$99.93; -0.07; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 10-29-03 in conjunction with earnings or on 11-3-03 in conjunction with a board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-16-00 at a stock price of $33. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-8-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. HAR has been on a tear. It rallied up the short term MVA all summer, then came back and tested the 50 day MVA (90.37) before announcing that business was booming. The stock boomed with it up to 100. Now 100 is a magnet for stocks, but once there it also becomes a barrier. This month HAR has ridden that barrier laterally on lower and lower volume, holding over the 10 day MVA (99.58) in a very tight range. We may see a shakeout, i.e., a dip lower intraday toward the 18 day MVA (97.64) and then a rebound. That would signal the break higher is ahead. As always we will wait to see the move and then move in ourselves.
Volume: 234.4K Avg Volume: 249.414K
BUY POINT: $101.68 Volume=374K Target=$117 Stop=$99.42
POSITION: HAR AT - Jan. $100c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$76.12; -0.58; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Flat base. A market leader, SYK has fallen into a 7 week base that is using the 50 day MVA (74.19) as support. This base comes after a strong surge from the May low. SYK needed a bit of time to rest, and it is getting it. Accumulation in the base is a solid 2 to 0. Money flow is still strong, leading nicely ahead of price. SYK rallied the past week nicely off the 50 day MVA, has made it up to the early September high (77.05), and is taking a breather, moving back Friday on lower, average volume. Looks just like a day of rest and we are looking for a volume move over the early September highs to enter.
Volume: 771.1K Avg Volume: 741.304K
BUY POINT: $77.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$88.65 Stop=$75.05
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$65.13; -0.1; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-23-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AVP continues to work along the short term MVA, now using the 10 day MVA (64.84) as support. Volume has started to swell Thursday and Friday, moving up to average as the week ended. Showed a doji at the 10 day as volume rose. Looking for it to make the break higher on even better volume.
Volume: 975K Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: $66.05 Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 09/02/2003
NATI (National Instruments--$43.08; +0.45; optionable): Measurement and automation products. Forecast to announce a split on 10/20/03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-22-99 in conjunction with earnings at a stock price of $31.52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. NATI broke out of a short 7 week base in early September, but it did not have any volume on the move. It fell back and tested the 18 day MVA (41.25) and has since moved up that moving average on continued low volume. Friday it showed better volume (though still below average) as it surged up toward the early September high (43.64). Looking for a volume breakout over that level to enter.
Volume: 155.061K Avg Volume: 228.835K
BUY POINT: $43.74 Volume=386K Target=$51.78 Stop=$41.22
POSITION: SJQ LH - Dec. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
Play Date: 08/19/2003
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$38.45; +0.39; optionable): Retail auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings or on 11-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events. BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45.
The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Friday ORLY moved up off the doji at the 10 day MVA (38.01) on rising though still below average volume. ORLY made a higher low in its pattern that has moved up the 50 day MVA (36.65) on the lows and is now ready to once again try the resistance at the top of the pattern. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the 10 week base, so it ahs the foundation to make the move.
Volume: 264.025K Avg Volume: 342.844K
BUY POINT: New buy point: $39.12 (orig. $38.44) Volume=350K Target=$46.05 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: OQR BH - Feb. $40c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 09/13/2003
PLMD (Polymedica--$54.79; -1.72; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on 10-1-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PLMD gapped out of a 2 month cup with handle to start the month, moved laterally in a flying plateau and then broke higher again Tuesday on solid, above average volume. It has had a lot of success and it needed a breather, and at the end of the week it fell back pretty hard on lower, average volume. That is what you want to see. It is just over the 10 day MVA (53.88) and may undercut that on the low intraday, but we look for it to hold right around that level and above the recent lows (52.50ish). On a rebound on volume we will enter.
Volume: 216.975K Avg Volume: 264.505K
BUY POINT: $55.06 Volume=325K Target=$63.45 Stop=$53.62
POSITION: PM LK - Dec. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plmd.html
End part 2 of 3
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