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us stock market, stock picking
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: CELL; CNXT; ECLG; NFLX; PPHM
Best Plays:
1) EASY: Starting the breakotu on surging volume.
2) TGEN: Good volume as it moves up off the 50 day MVA.
3) GRIC: Nice breakout test.
4) MTCH: Volume rising as it nears the breakout.
5) PWAV: Nice doji on rising volume at the 18 day MVA.
6) PRSF: Nice breakout test.
7) SOHU: Surging toward a breakout on volume.
8) NUE: Starting the break lower.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/22/2003
EASY (Easylink Services--$1.99; +0.19; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another good looking base in a small package. EASY has formed a 10 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. It has spent the past week forming a handle, i.e., moving laterally and slightly lower on below average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher. Monday EASY opened at the 10 day MVA (1.78) and rallied well on sharply higher, above average volume. Looks ready to make the breakout move. Small stocks have done well for us.
Volume: 2.347M Avg Volume: 1.292M
BUY POINT: $2.14 Volume=2M Target=$2.74 Stop=$1.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/easy.html
Play Date: 09/22/2003
CY (Cypress Semiconductor--$18.86; +0.51; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cy.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. CY is a chip that was moving up Monday as most moved lower, some sharply lower. After a strong run up off the 50 day MVA (now at 16.02), CY has moved laterally the past three weeks over the 18 day MVA (17.84). It has moved in an overall tight range and on very low volume the past week. Monday it broke higher on a big volume surge, moving over the highs in the short pattern. Strong money flow and relative strength making the breakout. Pretty aggressive, but it is moving well, one of the best movers in the chip market.
Volume: 4.862M Avg Volume: 2.512M
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=3.8M Target=$22.86 Stop=$17.78
POSITION: CY AW - Jan. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cy.html
Play Date: 09/22/2003
TGEN (Targeted Genetics--$2.66; +0.16; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgen.html
STATUS: Flat. TGEN is trying to make the breakout from a 13 week base that worked over the 50 day MVA (2.12). Volume dried up as it worked through July and August and then jumped this month as it moved up into the top of the range and over the 18 day MVA (2.36). Monday TGEN was up off the 18 day on the first above average volume in over a week. Looks ready to make the break higher over the early September high. This move will form the right side of a cup base and is a more aggressive position to take advantage of the run higher. That move, however, can give us a very nice return without having to break to a new recent high.
Volume: 1.302M Avg Volume: 1.036M
BUY POINT: $2.88 Volume=1.6M Target=$4 Stop=$2.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tgen.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/22/2003
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$449.14; -11.65; optionable): Philly semiconductor index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^soxx.html
STATUS: Put. This is an aggressive play, designed to take advantage of a turn down to the 50 day MVA (424) if the semiconductors break the 18 day MVA (449) in further market selling. Monday the index sold below the 18 day but managed to recover to hold that level on the close. Looking for it to take out the Tuesday low in further market selling. AS the trend is up this is an aggressive play.
BUY POINT: $446.25 Target=$425 Stop=$451
POSITION: SXX WI - Nov. $445p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^soxx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/15/2003
ALGN (Align Tech--$13.82; -0.12; optionable): Medical applicances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/algn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 11 week base, holding over the 10 day MVA (13.62) again Monday on continued low volume. Accumulation is solid at 3 to 1 and money flow is leading the way. Still just waiting for the volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 226.358K Avg Volume: 391.5K
BUY POINT: $14.28 Volume=605K Target=$16.88 Stop=$13.28
POSITION: CUA AV - Jan. $12.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/algn.html
Play Date: 09/17/2003
GRIC (Gric Communications--$7.25; -0.01; no options): Internet service providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gric.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. GRIC just made the breakout move last week from its 9 week double bottom with handle, surging on strong volume Wednesday and Thursday. It has made a very nice, low volume pullback to test the breakout, holding over 7 on the close. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on top of the very nice accumulation in the short base. Looking for a move back up from here on another shot of above average volume.
Volume: 282.955K Avg Volume: 581.227K
BUY POINT: $7.44 Volume=812K Target=$9.25 Stop=$6.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gric.html
Play Date: 09/09/2003
IFLO (I-Flow--$10.59; -0.65; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. IFLO blasted higher last week from its 6 week double bottom/flat base. Volume on the breakout was solid and surged all week long. It needed a quick breather, and that is what it is taking the past two sessions, falling back to the 10 day MVA (10.40) on the intreaday lows and bouncing back. Monday it showed a tight doji over the 10 day. This is the ideal spot to hold, and we are looking for a bounce up on above average volume to take new positions.
Volume: 284.24K Avg Volume: 343.954K
BUY POINT: New: $11.06 (orig. $9.62) Volume=426K Target=New positions: $13.27 (orig. positions: $11.52; will look at taking some gain there and letting the rest run). Stop=$9.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Play Date: 09/03/2003
INTL (Inter-Tel--$27.75; -0.22; optionable): Telcom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A bit wilder, testing to the 18 day MVA on the low (26.73) and rebounding on rising though still below average volume. The recovery puts INTL still right below the breakout point in its 9 week base that is part of a larger 10.5 month reverse head and shoulders. Volume has been picking up so we are looking for a breakout.
Volume: 242.961K Avg Volume: 267.272K
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=444K Target=$33.94 Stop=$26.48
POSITION: TPQ AE - Jan. $25c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/intl.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
MTCH (Metron Technology--$4.61; +0.04; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtch.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume was up again Monday as MTCH again moved toward the breakout from its short 4 week pattern showing 3 to 0 accumulation. Excellent price/volume action (up on positive sessions, down on negative days) and money flow running up ahead of price. Relative strength is also ready for a breakout to support the move. As noted over the weekend, these can be explosive patterns as the stock is squeezed from below (riding up the 18 day MVA at 4.29) beneath a constant high. The rising volume has us on the ready for a breakout.
Volume: 108.9K Avg Volume: 86.272K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=127K Target=$5.98 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtch.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
PWAV (Powerwave Technologies--$9.54; -0.12; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwav.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA (9.41). Still in a nice breakout test, holding the 18 day MVA on a very tight doji Monday as volume jumped well above average. PWAV exploded out of a 7 week cup base to start the month. Accumulation in the base was a strong 3 to 0. Looking for an above average volume rebound to enter.
Volume: 3.458M Avg Volume: 1.984M
BUY POINT: $10.02 Volume=2.3M Target=$12 Stop=$9.36
POSITION: VFQ BB - Feb. $10c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pwav.html
Play Date: 09/13/2003
PRSF (Portal Software--$3.3; -0.04; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prsf.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Really testing the breakout. PRSF dropped all the way to the 18 day MVA on the low (3.06) and then roared back for a very modest loss. Volume edged higher but was still below average on the move. Still a very nice test, and we are waiting for volume to kick back up above average as it moves over the next buy point.
Volume: 1.79M Avg Volume: 2.322M
BUY POINT: New: $3.48 (orig. $3.16) Volume=2.8M Target=$4.12 Stop=$3.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prsf.html
Play Date: 09/09/2003
SOHU (Sohu.com--$41.79; +1.81; optionable): Chinese internet provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
STATUS: Cup. SOHU is moving well. As the rest of the market pulls back it rallies on volume. Monday that is just what it was doing, blasting higher after gapping lower. Looking for the next entry point as it clears the recent high and resistance at 42.50.
Volume: 5.329M Avg Volume: 4.14M
BUY POINT: New: $42.62 (orig. $37.35) Volume=6.1M Target=New positions: $51.25 (orig. positions $42.55) Stop=$37.74
POSITION: UZK LG - Dec. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sohu.html
Play Date: 09/03/2003
ZGEN (Zymogenetics--$15.63; -0.05; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zgen.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ZGEN has formed a handle to its 14 week base, and Monday it tested 15 on the low and rebounded, holding the 18 day MVA (15.25) on the close. Accumulation in the pattern is 3 to 2. It continues to form the handle on lower volume and is getting close to the breakout move.
Volume: 28.879K Avg Volume: 67.772K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=100K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.46
POSITION: GZU KC - Nov. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zgen.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/17/2003
NUE (Nucor--$47.34; -0.97; optionable): Nucor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
STATUS: Put. NUE double topped in June and August and broke the 50 day MVA (49.18) to starte the month. It tried to hold at 48 but is giving way after a weak test of the 10 day MVA (48.39) failed. It started lower Monday and we started the play though volume was low. Looking for it to fall on rising volume to add to positoins.
Volume: 288.5K Avg Volume: 713.636K
BUY POINT: New: $47.12 (orig. $47.32) Volume=700K Target=$44.74 Stop=$48.55
POSITION: NUE VI - Oct. $50p (-73 delta) or NUE WJ - Nov. $50p (-68 delta).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nue.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock picking
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