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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Many current plays are setting up very nicely with breakout tests.
Good movers Monday: NERX; SINA; SSYS
Weekendplay results:
EGOV: Still in the nice handle on low volume.
TXCC: Again tapping the 18 day MVA and rebounding on a big spike in volume. Looks ready.
UPC: Gapped lower to the 18 day MVA. Low volume but not the action we wanted.
QRSI: Gapped higher bug gave it back to close flat. Still there.
New Plays for Tuesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/22/2003
ASTM (Aastrom Biosciences--$1.64; 0; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/astm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low priced but looking very solid in a sector that has been putting together strong bases and making good moves. ASTM is working on its own 14 week base, a very nice base with the right price/volume action (very low at the lows, rallying on the run up to form the right side of the base, and then lower as it formes the handle the past week). Accumulation is outstanding at 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is rallying up ahead of price and relative strength broke out. After forming a handle along the 10 day MVA (1.54), tapping that level on the Monday low and rebounding on much better volume, showing a doji right over that level. On these patterns we just let the stock complete the base and provide the strong breakout move through the buy point.
Volume: 2.486M Avg Volume: 2.752M
BUY POINT: $1.86 Volume=4.1M Target=$2.38 Stop=$1.64
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/astm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/22/2003
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$449.14; -11.65; optionable): Philly semiconductor index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^soxx.html
STATUS: Put. This is an aggressive play, designed to take advantage of a turn down to the 50 day MVA (424) if the semiconductors break the 18 day MVA (449) in further market selling. Monday the index sold below the 18 day but managed to recover to hold that level on the close. Looking for it to take out the Tuesday low in further market selling. AS the trend is up this is an aggressive play.
BUY POINT: $446.25 Target=$425 Stop=$451
POSITION: SXX WI - Nov. $445p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^soxx.html
Continuing plays that look ready:
Play Date: 09/18/2003
IMCO (Impco Technologies--$7.7; +0.18; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After surging on the breakout from the 10 week cup with handle base 8 sessions back, IMCO rallied over 8 and is now testing the move on low volume. Monday it tapped the 18 day MVA (7.21) on the low and rebounded on rising, above average volume for a nice gain. It looks ready to make the move and give us a nice entry point after it proved up the breakout with a good test.
Volume: 120.745K Avg Volume: 143.09K
BUY POINT: $7.88 Volume=225K Target=$9.85 Stop=$7.33
POSITION: IQZ KU - Nov. $7.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/imco.html
Play Date: 09/18/2003
SCMR (Sycamore Networks--$4.96; -0.04; optionable): Networking hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scmr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SCMR blasted higher a week back, breaking out from flat base from June to August (matching the overall market's lateral move during that time). Accumulation was solid at 3 to 1, setting the foundation for a good breakout. After the breakout SCMR has come back on lower volume, now testing the 18 day MVA on the Monday low (4.74) and rebounding to recover most of the gain. It is still showing very good resilience as it holds the breakout. Looking for a bounce back up on a return to strong volume.
Volume: 2.148M Avg Volume: 1.884M
BUY POINT: $5.22 Volume=2M Target=$6.55 Stop=$4.79
POSITION: SMZ AA - Jan. $5c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/scmr.html
Play Date: 09/04/2003
YHOO (Yahoo!--$36.58; -0.66; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
STATUS: Testing the brekaout. YHOO is in a very nice test of the Thursday breakout, edging back to test the 10 day MVA, tapping at it on the Monday low (36.02) and rebounding to recover much of the gain. Volume remains lower and average on the pullback. The candlestick pattern showed a doji on the pullback Friday. A very nice test, and looking for a rebound on stronger volume to add to positions.
Volume: 11.564M Avg Volume: 11.764M
BUY POINT: New: $37.35 (orig. $34.90) Volume=20M Target=New positions: $44.85 (orig. positiosn $42) Stop=$34.54
POSITION: YHQ AG - Jan. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/yhoo.html
Continuing plays that still look good: NXTL; ORCC; LNUS; TQNT; WMGI
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SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: Here is the revamped portfolio. A very good mix of stocks that will provide some very interesting plays in the weeks and months ahead. Right now we are just putting them in, and when they provide a buy point that is when we will start to move into positions. That is the key to any purchases, i.e., wiaitng for them to provide the entry points and not just a shotgun buy.
AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI
TGT 08/09 Flat 38.1 -1.14 41.45 50 4.6M 5.7M 38.74
Exited. Exited the play when stock tanked below the 50 day MVA on higher volume. Held some support at 50, but did not like the rising volume on the breach.
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Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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