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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
We apologize for the late delivery. We experienced severe internet problems this evening.
THE PLAYS
As the market sells we get more conservative upside and look to more downside plays. Even then we are not taking wholesale downside positions as the correction could be half way over point-wise already. We will look for the downside positions to set up a bit more aftertwo back to back downsessions. At that point they should be ready for the next downleg.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/25/2003
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics--$18.22; +0.3; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AVO is surging on strong volume, breaking out of its 10 week base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is shooting higher ahead of the stock. A very nice base that has formed after a strong run from November. It needed a breather and has taken it while the rest of the market rallied further. It is now ready to go as the other stocks fall back.
Volume: 1.13M Avg Volume: 288.545K
BUY POINT: $18.48 Volume=1M Target=$22.22 Stop=$17.45
POSITION: AVO AW - Jan. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/25/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$15.1; +0.41; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Put. AV is breaking out, CMVT is breaking down. After peaking at 18 in early September, CMVT reversed and sold off, falling throught he 50 day MVA (15.68) Wednesday on an above average volume spike. Thursday it rallied to tap at the 50 day MVA on the high (15.48) but then fell back. Volume jumped even higher on that tap at resistance. Looking for it to make another test of the 50 day MVA and then turn back over for a quick test toward the 200 day MVA down at 13.
Volume: 4.37M Avg Volume: 2.772M
BUY POINT: $15.15 Volume=3M Target=$13.05 Stop=$15.85
POSITION: CQV WW - Nov. $17.50p (-83 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmvt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/22/2003
EASY (Easylink Services--$1.83; -0.05; no options): Internet software & services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/easy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Fell back wedn and then showed a tight doji on the 10 day MVA (1.84) Thursday as volume backed off well below average. EASY has formed a 10 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. After forming the handle last week it has tried to make the breakout on rising volume this week but has not been able to hold the move yet. Forming another small handle here and we look for it to hold over the 10 day MVA and then provide a breakout move higher. Strong money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 495.71K Avg Volume: 1.364M
BUY POINT: $2.14 Volume=2M Target=$2.74 Stop=$1.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/easy.html
Play Date: 09/09/2003
IFLO (I-Flow--$11.12; +0.42; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A wild session Thursday saw it sell well below 10 on a few quick trades but then roar back for a gain on rising volume. Suspicious trading. In any even IFLOW still looks very good in the test of its 6 week double bottom/flat base. Looks very good in a stronger sector even as the rest of the market struggles.
Volume: 410.395K Avg Volume: 334.954K
BUY POINT: New: $11.06 (orig. $9.62) Volume=426K Target=New positions: $13.27 (orig. positions: $11.52; will look at taking some gain there and letting the rest run). Stop=$9.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/24/2003
GENZ (Genzyme--$46.75; -0.48; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Put. Thursday GENZ started lower again on rising, above average volume. It tapped 46 on the low and rebounded to recoup a part of the session losses. Still below the 50 day MVA (47.45) and looks ready to fall further. Money flow is falling ahead of the price. Again, plenty of room to the downside here, and we are looking at moving in on a further move lower on continued solid volume.
Volume: 3.751M Avg Volume: 2.919M
BUY POINT: New: $46.55 (orig. $46.96) Volume=3.5M Target=$43 Stop=$48
POSITION: GZQ WS - Nov. $47.50p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^SOXX 09/22 Put 431.91 -2.43 443.61 425 130K 0 449.25
Current. Rallied early to the 18 day MVA, but then sold back down and continued the selloff toward the 50 day MVA.
ACN 09/24 Test 50 22.6 +0.35 22.62 27.15 7.4M 3.4M 21.04
Current.
AGIL 09/08 Cup hdl 10.38 -0.42 11.12 13.28 1.2M 650K 10.45
Buy Not Issued.
AMLN 08/20 Cup 27.5 +0.18 26.69 31.88 772K 1.7M 28.58
Exited.
ARIA 09/11 Test BO 6.34 -0.81 5.08 6.28 1.3M 600K 5.42
Target Hit. Took half the gain & let the rest to work for us.
ARTC 09/13 Test BO 18.4 -0.68 19.88 23.88 220K 210K 18.82
Buy Not Issued.
ATMI 09/24 Put 24.61 -0.9 25.35 23 445K 488K 26.88
Buy Not Hit.
BKHM 09/13 Cup hdl 2.06 -0.19 1.94 2.62 3.5M 825K 2.15
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 33.59 -1.96 19.25 23.25 1.3M 225K 29.34
Current.
CNXT 09/03 Rv H&S 5.81 -0.51 6.21 7.72 6.1M 6M 5.97
Exited.
CY 09/22 FlyPlat 18.4 -0.3 19.05 22.86 3.9M 3.8M 17.78
Buy Not Issued.
DRIV 08/25 Cup hdl 28.02 -1.92 25.75 30.25 826K 1.7M 28.55
Current.
DRIV 08/06 Test 50 28.02 -1.92 24.18 27.48 826K 1.7M 28.55
Current.
EASY 09/22 Cup hdl 1.83 -0.05 2.14 2.74 496K 2M 1.96
Buy Not Issued.
ECLG 09/13 A Wedge 21.65 -0.19 17.55 21.12 385K 342K 17.92
Current.
EFII 09/15 FlyPlat 24.1 -0.17 24.25 29.15 730K 677K 23.55
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 9.71 -0.71 9.33 11.12 157K 400K 9.86
Current.
EVOL 09/04 Test BO 13.1 -0.98 9.62 11.85 971K 440K 10.67
Current.
EVOL 08/16 Test BO 13.1 -0.98 8.65 10.38 971K 440K 10.67
Current.
FLEX 08/25 Test BO 13.9 -1.1 13.25 15.88 49M 13M 14.94
Exited.
FLSH 09/16 Test 50 16.24 +0.07 16.85 19.75 643K 300K 15.94
Current.
GENZ 09/24 Put 46.75 -0.48 46.96 43 3.7M 3.5M 48
Buy Not Issued.
GLDN 08/25 Test BO 29.82 -0.54 30.55 36.55 95K 200K 29.36
Buy Not Issued.
GLDN 08/19 Test BO 29.82 -0.54 30.4 36.48 95K 200K 29.72
Current.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 57.01 -6.52 41.75 48 1.7M 766K 60.55
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 57.01 -6.52 26.5 30.75 1.7M 521K 60.55
Current.
GRIC 09/22 Test BO 7.74 -0.36 8.18 10 546K 872K 7.36
Current.
GRIC 09/17 Flat 7.74 -0.36 7.44 9.25 546K 812K 7.36
Current.
HDTV 08/21 Cup hdl 4.79 -0.01 4.12 5.12 130K 125K 4.24
Current.
IFLO 09/22 Test BO 11.12 +0.42 11.06 13.26 409K 375K 10.26
Buy Not Issued.
IFLO 09/09 Flat 11.12 +0.42 9.62 11.52 409K 426K 9.72
Current.
IMA 07/28 A Wedge 23.75 -0.45 22.2 26.65 74K 115K 23.52
Current.
INSP 09/06 Rv H&S 21.48 -0.82 18 21.55 848K 600K 19.84
Current.
INTL 09/03 Rv H&S 25.84 -1.35 28.38 33.94 285K 444K 26.48
Buy Not Issued.
IRM 09/10 Put 36.26 +0.11 34.55 32 660K 500K 35.55
Current.
IVIL 09/15 Cup hdl 2.37 -0.22 2.74 3.48 208K 335K 2.49
Exited.
KOMG 09/08 Test BO 17.71 -0.29 16.95 20.45 264K 332K 15.82
Current.
LF 08/20 Cup hdl 39.17 -0.2 35.34 42 720K 845K 36.69
Current.
LIFC 09/17 Test BO 6.92 -0.14 6.65 8.45 134K 244K 6.32
Current.
LIFC 08/27 Cup hdl 6.92 -0.14 6.18 7.55 134K 210K 6.32
Current.
LWSN 09/20 Cup hdl 8.26 -0.01 8.45 10.18 853K 750K 7.86
Current.
MATK 09/09 A Wedge 55.82 -0.44 52.25 59.85 397K 799K 52.54
Current.
MERQ 08/27 Cup hdl 46.19 -0.85 45.76 53.95 3.8M 4.5M 47.62
Current.
MIPS 09/24 Test 18 4.46 -0.1 4.78 6 97K 298K 4.45
Buy Not Hit.
MRBA 08/14 Cup hdl 3.9 -0.09 4.12 5.12 43K 215K 3.83
Current.
MTCH 09/20 A Wedge 4.65 -0.26 4.78 5.98 81K 127K 4.35
Buy Not Hit.
NANO 09/08 Cup hdl 12.81 -0.25 9.22 11.68 911K 253K 12.68
Exited.
NENG 08/04 Test BO 6.87 -0.15 5.12 6.35 536K 232K 6.94
Current.
NFLX 08/26 DB hdl 34.81 -3.19 30.62 36.65 1.5M 1.5M 34.98
Current.
NMGC 09/18 Test BO 2.58 -0.13 2.92 3.65 193K 250K 2.62
Buy Not Hit.
NUAN 09/23 Cup hdl 6.15 -0.23 6.77 8 373K 309K 6.04
Current.
NUE 09/17 Dbl Top 45.69 -1.41 47.32 44.74 1.2M 700K 48.55
Current.
OPSW 08/30 DB hdl 7.8 -0.35 7 8.75 856K 1M 7.75
Current.
PPHM 09/20 Cup hdl 2.13 -0.01 2.24 2.95 1.7M 2.5M 1.96
Current.
PRSF 09/22 Test BO 2.85 -0.06 3.48 4.35 2.7M 2.4M 3.15
Buy Not Hit.
PRSF 09/13 A Wedge 2.85 -0.06 3.16 4.12 2.7M 2.8M 3.12
Current.
PTEK 08/26 Cup hdl 8.08 -0.51 6.74 8.65 2.5M 276K 8.28
Current.
RBK 09/24 DB hdl 33.62 -0.31 34.46 41.35 594K 1.1M 33.22
Buy Not Hit.
RHAT 09/18 Cup hdl 9.78 -0.39 9.06 11.32 4M 2.8M 8.43
Buy Not Issued.
RNDC 09/23 Cup hdl 2.96 -0.07 3.23 4.04 514K 559K 2.92
Current.
SCON 09/05 Cup 4.31 -0.09 3.45 4.25 1.3M 735K 4.28
Current.
SNIC 08/11 Test BO 14.46 -0.54 12.15 14.55 709K 900K 15.12
Current.
SNUS 09/20 Cup hdl 5.22 -0.68 5.62 6.75 166K 90K 5.16
Current.
SNUS 09/04 Cup hdl 5.22 -0.68 4.94 6.12 166K 90K 5.16
Current.
SOHU 09/22 Cup 35.15 -4.08 42.62 51.25 11M 6.1M 40.25
Buy Not Hit.
SOHU 09/09 Cup 35.15 -4.08 37.35 42.55 11M 6.1M 37.74
Current.
SOHU 09/02 Cup 35.15 -4.08 36.14 42.92 11M 5M 37.74
Current.
TGEN 09/22 Flat 2.68 -0.09 4 4.18 1.1M 1.6M 2.55
Current.
TPTH 09/16 Cup hdl 8.39 -0.66 8.37 10.18 251K 261K 7.65
Current.
TRB 09/06 Put 47.01 +1.14 45.38 43 2.3M 1M 46.28
TRKN 09/17 Cup hdl 5.97 -0.53 7.22 9 173K 165K 6.45
Buy Not Issued.
TZA 07/31 Cup hdl 7.26 0 7.1 8.72 963K 579K 7.06
Current.
UTEK 06/28 Test BO 28.15 -1.66 23.15 27.35 344K 615K 29.38
Exited.
UTSI 09/23 Put 32.99 -2.09 34.88 31.78 15M 5M 37.18
Buy Not Issued. Tanked fast & we waited for a bounce. Stock closed
well off low so looking for a bit more rebound for
another good entry point.
ZGEN 09/03 Cup 15.31 -0.15 16.62 19.95 60K 100K 15.46
Buy Not Issued.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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