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trade stock, stock option
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: CELL; DRIV; EMBT; OPLK; STCR
Best Plays:
1) CVM: Excellent accumulation in a nice base.
2) NUFO: Starting back up from the test on rising volume.
3) CTAS: Rolling over below the 200 day MVA.
4) ENDP: Nice breakout test.
5) PPHM: A doji right on the 18 day MVA.
6) RBK: Very nice handle still forming.
7) CMVT: Low volume rally to the 50 day MVA.
8) INTL: Lower volume test of the 50 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/29/2003
CVM (Cel-Sci Corp.--$0.96; +0.06; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CVM is working on a weeklong handle to a 4 month cup base that started in early June after a strong run higher. After surgeing up off the 50 day MVA (0.78) that acted as roughly the bottom of the pattern, CVM has moved laterally the past three sesions on lower volume. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding at 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow to go along with the excellent accumulation. Just waiting for CVM to provide the breakout on another strong volume.
Volume: 798.9K Avg Volume: 592.227K
BUY POINT: $1.11 Volume=900K Target=$1.48 Stop=$1.01
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvm.html
Play Date: 09/29/2003
INTV (Intervoice-Brite--$9.04; +0.61; no options): Telecom prcessing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. INTV came from the doldrums, breaking out of a 4 month base in May and rallying to 8. It has since formed its second base coming off the low, a 2.5 month pattern sporting solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). After breakign higher two weeks back and moving to 9, it came back in the market selling to test the breakout and the 18 day MVA (8.46), forming another handle. Monday INTV was up on strong, above average trade. Relative strength is already breaking out and we look for INTV to continue the move.
Volume: 330.59K Avg Volume: 304.818K
BUY POINT: $9.38 Volume=457K Target=$11.28 Stop=$8.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/intv.html
Play Date: 09/29/2003
NUFO (New Focus--$4.55; +0.22; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nufo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice 11 week base forming over the 200 day MVA (3.60), NUFO looks ready to make the breakout move. Accumulation in the base is a strong 3 to 1. Money flow is screaming ahead of the of price and relative strength has already broken out. While some of the overall larger chips are in trouble, NUFO is one of the smaller chip stocks that have been outperforming and forming excellent bases. Started back up Monday on volume, moving up off the 10 day MVA (4.34). Want to see even more volume as it makes a breakout move.
Volume: 1.401M Avg Volume: 741.818K
BUY POINT: $4.71 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.85 Stop=$4.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nufo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/29/2003
CTAS (Cintas--$37.75; -0.11; optionable): Uniform service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctas.html
STATUS: Double top. CTAS double topped in July and September then started the fall, breaking below the 200 day MVA (38.37) last Thursday on continued above average volume. Monday it gapped back over the 200 day on the open, but had no volume and rolled back down. It has held 37.40 on the intraday low the last two sessions, so we are looking for it to fall through that level on stronger trade to enter the downside position.
Volume: 686.41K Avg Volume: 1.128M
BUY POINT: $37.38 Volume=1.1M Target=$35 Stop=$38.48
POSITION: NQQ WH - Nov. $40p (-79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctas.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/24/2003
ACN (Accenture--$22.02; +0.01; optionable): Business management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acn.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. ACN jumped off the 50 day MVA (21.22) Wednesday on a nice volume spike, but in the subsequent selling found itslef heading lower again. Monday it reached way down intraday and tapped that level on the low and then rallied hsarply on rising, above average volume to recoup the losses and finish basically flat. Thus, the market selling slowed it but did not stop it. Strong money flow and accumulation. Looking for another volume move vor positions.
Volume: 4.438M Avg Volume: 2.753M
BUY POINT: $22.62 Volume=3.4M Target=$27.15 Stop=$21.04
POSITION: ACN BX - Feb. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acn.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
ENDP (Endo Pharmaceuticals--$20.18; -0.61; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/endp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Slipped below the 10 day MVA and touched the 18 day MVA (19.81) and bounced a bit to the close. Volume was up and above average as ENDP tests the breakout from the 3 month cup. The base sported solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). The breakout was on excellent trade, and the test has been orderly. Now looking for a retunr to the rally.
Volume: 775.558K Avg Volume: 854.772K
BUY POINT: $21.75 Volume=1.3M Target=$26.12 Stop=$20.23
POSITION: IUK AD - Jan. $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/endp.html
Play Date: 09/09/2003
IFLO (I-Flow--$10.85; -0.15; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (10.33) on very low volume, tapping that level on the low and again rebounding to the close. Very nice, holding up well, and we just wait for a strong break higher on a return of volume.
Volume: 115.823K Avg Volume: 338.5K
BUY POINT: New: $11.24 (orig. $9.62) Volume=426K Target=New positions: $13.27 (orig. positions: $11.52; will look at taking some gain there and letting the rest run). Stop=$9.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
MTCH (Metron Technology--$4.59; 0; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtch.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. After a strong move lat Tuesday, MTCH was caught in the late week selling. It fell to and held the 18 day MVA (4.47), however, on very low volume. Looks as if it is going to hold this level and start the rebound. We want to see above average volume as it starts back up. Still a very nice little 4 week ascending triangle.
Volume: 3.8K Avg Volume: 94.363K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=127K Target=$5.98 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtch.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
PPHM (Peregrine Pharma--$2; -0.01; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pphm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PPHM is sitting right on top of the 18 day MVA (1.97) on very low, below average volume. This test comses after PPHM blasted higher to start last week, breaking out of its short double bottom with handle pattern. This is a very orderly test, and now we just look for the break higher on rising volume. Excellent accumulation and money flwo remains very strong.
Volume: 951.676K Avg Volume: 1.666M
BUY POINT: $2.24 Volume=2.5M Target=$2.95 Stop=$1.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pphm.html
Play Date: 09/24/2003
RBK (Reebok--$33.34; -0.18; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbk.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. One more test lower in the handle of its 9 week base, tapping the 50 day MVA (33.23) on the low and rebounding on rising, above average volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume) and outstanding money flow. Just waiting for the break higher.
Volume: 865.7K Avg Volume: 735.136K
BUY POINT: $34.46 Volume=1.1M Target=$41.35 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: RBK AG - Jan. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rbk.html
Play Date: 09/18/2003
RHAT (Red Hat--$9.63; +0.02; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still holding the 10 day MVA (9.50) on low, average volume after a strong break higher a week back. Solid money flow, relative strength and accumulation. Just waiting for the next rally higher on volume.
Volume: 2.488M Avg Volume: 2.336M
BUY POINT: $9.82 Volume=2.8M Target=$12 Stop=$9.24
POSITION: RCV LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhat.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
STCR (Starcraft--$34.94; +0.96; no options): Boats, trailers, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stcr.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Started higher on continued strong volume, clearing the 10 day MVA (34.63) in the process. It has been a good surge off of the 50 day MVA (31.62) and it is still a buy at this point. Money flow is surging sharply ahead of price and relative strength is solid.
Volume: 142.392K Avg Volume: 82.181K
BUY POINT: New: $35.35 (orig. $34.88) Volume=121K Target=$40.15 Stop=$31.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stcr.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
TPTH (Tripath Imaging--$8.52; +0.2; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tpth.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TPTH broke from a 4 month flat base two weeks back and is tseting that breakout, coming back to the 10 day MVA (8.28) Monday on lower, average volume. Looked ready to start the move back up Monday, and just needs some more volume. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 211.081K Avg Volume: 187.045K
BUY POINT: New: $8.68 (orig. $8.37) Volume=261K Target=$10.18 Stop=$7.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tpth.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/24/2003
ATMI (ATMI, Inc.--$25.81; +0.89; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atmi.html
STATUS: Put. Making the rebound test toward 26 (50 day MVA at 26.67), but volume really spiked higher as it did. We typically want volume to fall as the stock rallies to test the breakdown as that shows fewer buyers stepping in on the rebound. We will have to see if volume backs way off and it turns and falls on then increasing volume in order to move into positions.
Volume: 718.988K Avg Volume: 336.363K
BUY POINT: New: Test 26, then $25.65 on the way back down (orig. $25.35). Volume=488K Target=$23 Stop=$26.88
POSITION: ASQ WE - Nov. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atmi.html
Play Date: 09/25/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$15.44; +0.8; optionable): Telecom processiong systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Put. CMVT peaked in early September near 18 and then rolled over. It broke through the 50 day MVA (15.63) last Wednesday and has tried twice to take it back, but faield. Monday CMVT rallied back to the 50 day but on declining, below average volume. The lower volume indicates there was not a lot of interest as it moved back up. What we want to see now is a rollover on higher volume as that will show the sellers jumping on it once again. That is when we move in.
Volume: 2.334M Avg Volume: 2.758M
BUY POINT: $15.15 Volume=3M Target=$13.05 Stop=$15.85
POSITION: CQV WW - Nov. $17.50p (-83 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmvt.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
INTL (Inter-Tel--$24.67; +0.26; optionable): Telecom processing systems.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Double top. INTL held 24 on the intraday low again and then bounced to test the 50 day MVA (25.26) on the high before slipping back on lower volume. Now we look for INTL to turn over on rising volume here for additional positions.
Volume: 230.499K Avg Volume: 271.09K
BUY POINT: Has tested 25. New: $23.96 (orig. $24.74). Volume=310K Target=$22.05 Stop=$25.35
POSITION: TPQ WE - Nov. $25p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/intl.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
PLT (Plantronics--$24.53; +0.7; optionable): Telecom headsets, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: Put. After tanking below the 50 day MVA (24.73) Friday PLT turned and rallied on a sharp volume surge. It is coming back up to test the 50 day MVA (24.73), and this is where it needs to roll over on continued strong trade. Need to see it turn and show signs of faltering, such as a doji. Then when it moves down from there is when we enter.
Volume: 511.6K Avg Volume: 292.909K
BUY POINT: $24.25 Volume=300K Target=$22 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: PLT WE - Nov. $25p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plt.html
End part 2 of 3
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