stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers Tuesday: ISIL; LRCX; NERX; PDYN

Monday night play results:
PDYN: Nice breakout on volume.
UNTD: Fell back to the 50 day MVA, unable to make the bounce.
SIAL: Up and down on rising volume. Looking for another test higher and then a failure to enter.

New Plays for Wednesday:

Upside:

Play Date: 09/30/2003
TELM (Tellium--$1.37; +0.08; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/telm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TELM broke out from a 3.5 month double bottom with handle pattern sporting strong 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). A huge break higher two weeks back on very strong volume. Money flow is still surging higher and a relative strength breakout on the move. It has tested the breakout, dropping to the 18 day MVA (1.26) on lower, below average volume. It tapped at that level on the Tuesday low and posted a solid gain. Looking for volume to come in as it clears last week's highs.
Volume: 4.516M Avg Volume: 4.98M
BUY POINT: $1.49 Volume=7M Target=$2 Stop=$1.29
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/telm.html

Downside:

Play Date: 09/30/2003
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$13.77; -13.14; optionable): Philly semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^soxx.html
STATUS: Put. SOX tested the 50 day MVA (426.08) Friday, bounced Monday, and then was right back at it Tuesday, breaking through that important level. This is in spite of word from Intel things were solid in wireless. In any event, the chips were down again Tuesday, and we are looking for a further move lower. May try to test the 50 day MVA one more time; that would be an optimal entry point when it fails. Still, on further selling from here we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 2.218M Avg Volume: 820.227K
BUY POINT: $418.48 Target=$398 Stop=$423.75
POSITION: SXX WD - Nov. $500p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^soxx.html

Continuing plays that look ready:

Play Date: 09/10/2003
WMGI (Wright Medical--$25.24; +0.3; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wmgi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. WMGI tapped at the 50 day MVA (24.01) on the Tuesday low and then rebounded to post a gain on the strongest shot of volume in three weeks. Money flow is still running up ahead of the stock. A nice 9 week base showing strong 4 to 0 accumulation. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 389.3K Avg Volume: 256.636K
BUY POINT: $26.04 Volume=400K Target=$31.25 Stop=$24.68
POSITION: QWM KE - Nov. $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wmgi.html

Continuing that also look solid: NYB; NXTL; ORCC; SWIR (Nice pullback!); TLCV; VSV

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SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well. Right now they are not performing too well with the exception of AVID.

AVID, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI

DIS 08/09 Test 50 20.17 -0.11 22.06 26.48 12M 9M 21.12
Announced that 2004 would be stronger than expected. Volume was up but the stock was not. It is still below the 50 and short term MVA, trying to hold some price support at 20, but getting pushed lower.

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Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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