stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 2 of 2

Economic Calendar

9-29-03
Personal income, August (8:30): 0.2% actual, 0.3% expected, 0.3% July (revised from 0.2%.
Personal spending: 0.8% actual, 0.8% expected, 0.9% August (revised from 0.8%).

9-30-03
Consumer confidence, September (10:00): 76.8 actual, 80.5 expected, 81.7 August (revised from 81.3).
Chicago PMI, September (10:00): 51.2 actual, 57.0 expected, 58.9 August.

10-1-03
ISM Index, September (10:00): 55.0 expected, 54.7 August.
Construction spending, August (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.2% July.

10-2-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 395K expected, 381K prior.
Factory orders, August (10:00): -0.5% expected, 1.6% July.

10-3-03
Non-farm payrolls, September (8:30): -25K expected, -93K August.
Unemployment rate, September: 6.2% expected, 6.1% August.
Hourly earnings, September: 0.2% expected, 0.1% August.
Average workweek, September: 33.7 expected, 33.6 August.
ISM Services, September (10:00): 63.0 expected, 65.1 August.

SEMINARS ON CD

http://www.stockseminarsonline.com

This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.

THE PLAYS

Good movers Tuesday: CTAS; PPHM; RHAT; TZA

NEW PLAYS:

Upside:

Play Date: 09/30/2003
MTIC (MTI Technology--$1.7; -0.04; no options): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtic.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Small and quietly moving, MTIC broke out of a 5 month flat base in September, rallied to $2, and is now testing that move. For the past week it has moved laterally over the 18 day MVA (1.62) on very low, below average volume. Excellent consolidation action where the short term profits are taken, getting rid of all of the short term sellers. Then demand outstrips supply and off the stock goes. Accumulation in the base is a strong 5 to 2 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is excellent and relative strength broke out on the breakout move, a good confirmation of the strength. Tuesday MTIC dipped below the 18 day MVA intraday and then shot back up to recover almost all of the loss. Volume edged higher. Looks ready to resume the breakout, but want to see it clear near resistance at 1.80 on strong volume.
Volume: 91.325K Avg Volume: 166.454K
BUY POINT: $1.83 Volume=250K Target=$2.28 Stop=$1.58
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtic.html

Downside:

Play Date: 09/30/2003
^SOXX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$13.77; -13.14; optionable): Philly semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^soxx.html
STATUS: Put. SOX tested the 50 day MVA (426.08) Friday, bounced Monday, and then was right back at it Tuesday, breaking through that important level. This is in spite of word from Intel things were solid in wireless. In any event, the chips were down again Tuesday, and we are looking for a further move lower. May try to test the 50 day MVA one more time; that would be an optimal entry point when it fails. Still, on further selling from here we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 2.218M Avg Volume: 820.227K
BUY POINT: $418.48 Target=$398 Stop=$423.75
POSITION: SXX WD - Nov. $500p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^soxx.html

Play Date: 09/30/2003
COH (Coach--$54.6; +0.44; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Double top. COH is a market leader, but it is struggling below the 50 day MVA (55.36) after double topping in September. COH broke the 50 day Friday and has made a rebound attempt this week, but Tuesday the volume was much lower as it posted a gain. Looking for it to fail in this test and roll over on another shot of above average volume.
Volume: 809.4K Avg Volume: 794.136K
BUY POINT: $53.96 Volume=850K Target=$50 Stop=$54.88
POSITION: COH WK - Nov. $55p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/coh.html

CONTINUING PLAYS:

Upside:

Play Date: 09/29/2003
NUFO (New Focus--$4.55; +0.22; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nufo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice 11 week base forming over the 200 day MVA (3.60), NUFO looks ready to make the breakout move. Accumulation in the base is a strong 3 to 1. Money flow is screaming ahead of the of price and relative strength has already broken out. While some of the overall larger chips are in trouble, NUFO is one of the smaller chip stocks that have been outperforming and forming excellent bases. Started back up Monday on volume, moving up off the 10 day MVA (4.34). Want to see even more volume as it makes a breakout move.
Volume: 1.401M Avg Volume: 741.818K
BUY POINT: $4.71 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.85 Stop=$4.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nufo.html

Downside:

Play Date: 09/24/2003
ATMI (ATMI, Inc.--$25.35; -0.46; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atmi.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 10 day MVA (26.18) on the high again and then fell back down, unable to capitalize on the stronger volume gain Monday. Very toppy pattern here and looking for it to fall on rising volume.
Volume: 359.757K Avg Volume: 344.272K
BUY POINT: New: Has tested 26, now $25.15 (orig. $25.35). Volume=488K Target=$23 Stop=$26.88
POSITION: ASQ WE - Nov. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atmi.html

WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:

LEGEND

DATE: date play first appeared on report.

PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);

PIVOT=Buy point

Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.

Vol=Volume for the most recent session.

TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.

Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

ACN 09/24 Test 50 22.34 +0.32 22.62 27.15 3M 3.4M 21.04
Current.

ARIA 09/11 Test BO 6.02 -0.27 5.08 6.28 353K 600K 5.48
Current.

ARTC 09/13 Test BO 17.82 -0.82 19.88 23.88 218K 210K 18.82
Buy Not Issued.

ATMI 09/24 Put 25.35 -0.46 25.35 23 320K 488K 26.88

AVO 09/25 Cup hdl 17.96 +0.36 18.48 22.22 274K 1M 17.45
Buy Not Hit.

BKHM 09/13 Cup hdl 2.14 -0.01 1.94 2.62 1.3M 825K 2.15
Current.

CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 32.78 -2.11 19.25 23.25 965K 225K 30.35
Current.

CMVT 09/25 Put 14.97 -0.47 15.15 13.05 2.6M 3M 15.85
Current.

CTAS 09/29 Dbl Top 37.01 -0.74 37.1 35 1.3M 1.1M 38.38
Current.

CVM 09/29 Cup hdl 0.93 -0.03 1.11 1.48 283K 900K 1.01
Buy Not Hit.

CY 09/22 FlyPlat 17.68 -0.3 19.05 22.86 3.1M 3.8M 17.78
Buy Not Issued.

DRIV 08/25 Cup hdl 27.37 -0.39 25.75 30.25 779K 1.7M 25.44
Current.

DRIV 08/06 Test 50 27.37 -0.39 24.18 27.48 779K 1.7M 25.44
Current.

EASY 09/22 Cup hdl 1.63 -0.12 2.14 2.74 495K 2M 1.96
Buy Not Issued.

EFII 09/15 FlyPlat 23.33 -0.37 24.25 29.15 954K 677K 23.55
Current.

EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 10.05 -0.2 9.33 11.12 121K 400K 9.54
Current.

ENDP 09/27 Test BO 20.45 +0.27 21.75 26.12 436K 1.3M 20.23
Buy Not Hit.

FLSH 09/16 Test 50 15.7 -0.5 16.85 19.75 245K 300K 15.34
Current.

GENZ 09/24 Put 46.31 +0.19 46.96 43 2.8M 3.5M 48
Buy Not Issued.

GLDN 08/25 Test BO 27.34 -0.62 30.55 36.55 124K 200K 29.36
Buy Not Issued.

GLDN 08/19 Test BO 27.34 -0.62 30.4 36.48 124K 200K 28.48
Current.

GRIC 09/22 Test BO 7.03 +0.03 8.18 10 401K 872K 6.87
Current.

GRIC 09/17 Flat 7.03 +0.03 7.44 9.25 401K 812K 6.87
Current.

HDTV 08/21 Cup hdl 4.8 +0.08 4.12 5.12 173K 125K 4.24
Current.

IFLO 09/22 Test BO 10.5 -0.35 11.06 13.26 149K 375K 10.26
Buy Not Issued.

IFLO 09/09 Flat 10.5 -0.35 9.62 11.52 149K 426K 9.72
Current.

INSP 09/06 Rv H&S 20.41 -1.13 18 21.55 481K 600K 19.84
Current.

INTL 09/27 Dbl Top 24.55 -0.12 24.74 22.05 238K 310K 25.35
Buy Not Hit.

INTV 09/29 Test BO 8.9 -0.14 9.38 11.28 424K 457K 8.68
Buy Not Issued.

IRM 09/10 Put 35.9 -0.25 34.55 32 312K 500K 35.55
Current.

KOMG 09/08 Test BO 17.52 +0.22 16.95 20.45 222K 332K 15.48
Current.

LF 08/20 Cup hdl 38 -0.82 35.34 42 351K 845K 37.77
Current.

LWSN 09/20 Cup hdl 7.09 -0.1 8.45 10.18 600K 750K 7.28
Current.

MATK 09/09 A Wedge 52.63 +0.11 52.25 59.85 524K 799K 49.64
Current.

MERQ 08/27 Cup hdl 45.6 -0.97 45.76 53.95 2.7M 4.5M 44.79
Current.

MTCH 09/20 A Wedge 4.55 -0.04 4.78 5.98 94K 127K 4.35
Buy Not Hit.

NUE 09/17 Dbl Top 45.88 -0.09 47.32 44.74 851K 700K 46.04
Current.

NUFO 09/29 Cup hdl 4.49 -0.06 4.71 5.85 784K 1.2M 4.32
Buy Not Hit.

OPLK 09/27 Test BO 2.53 -0.11 2.62 3.28 1.4M 978K 2.22
Current.

OPSW 08/30 DB hdl 7.3 -0.26 7 8.75 723K 1M 7.54
Current.

PLT 09/27 Put 23.87 -0.66 23.95 21.65 249K 300K 24.82
Current.

PPHM 09/20 Cup hdl 2.15 +0.15 2.24 2.95 2.8M 2.5M 1.94
Current.

PRSFD 09/22 Test BO 2.15 0 3.48 4.35 2.8M 2.4M 3.15
Buy Not Hit.

PRSFD 09/13 A Wedge 2.15 0 3.16 4.12 2.8M 2.8M 2.77
Current.

PTEK 08/26 Cup hdl 8.23 -0.08 6.74 8.65 941K 276K 7.72
Current.

RBK 09/24 DB hdl 33.43 +0.09 34.46 41.35 581K 1.1M 33.22
Buy Not Hit.

RHAT 09/18 Cup hdl 10 +0.37 10.03 12.22 5M 2.8M 9.33
Current.

RNDC 09/23 Cup hdl 2.76 -0.18 3.23 4.04 549K 559K 2.92
Current.

SNUS 09/20 Cup hdl 4.92 +0.01 5.62 6.75 57K 90K 5.16
Current.

SNUS 09/04 Cup hdl 4.92 +0.01 4.94 6.12 57K 90K 5.16
Current.

STCR 09/27 Test 50 33.76 -1.18 34.95 40.15 72K 121K 32.5
Current.

TGEN 09/22 Flat 2.63 +0.03 3 4.18 813K 1.6M 2.45
Current.

TPTH 09/16 Cup hdl 8.64 +0.12 8.37 10.18 212K 261K 7.72
Current.

TZA 07/31 Cup hdl 7.5 +0.16 7.1 8.72 1M 579K 6.97
Current.

UTSI 09/23 Put 31.8 -0.48 34.88 31.78 3.6M 5M 37.18

ZGEN 09/03 Cup 14.65 -0.15 16.62 19.95 40K 100K 15.46
Buy Not Issued.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock recommendation
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