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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: DAKT squeezed out another 2 points today, and OCLR tried to make its move as volume shot higher, but continues to "doji" at support. ESRX is trying to break out of its base, and NVDA is in a good-looking pullback. Keep an eye on BRCD it is ready to move. ORLY looks pretty good in its most recent pullback, and showed a tight doji on low volume today.
Best Plays:
1) VAR: Looking for a move back up.
2) TTEK: Ready to head back up in its handle.
3) SEBL: A looming 50 day bounce if the market rallies.
New Play: An interesting twist that may offer an opportunity.
VAR (Varian Medical--$74.60; -2.19; optionable): Scientific & Technical Instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: VAR has been strong, recently testing a breakout (out of its third base) and moving back up the last couple of weeks. Today we saw an interesting phenomenon, as VAR dropped back on low volume (101,700; average 195,000) on no news. It is possible that it was confused with Varian Semi (VSEA), which warned with respect to earnings today. We suspect that this was the case, and we are going to at least make a short term trade out of this, though VAR is a leading stock of late. We will see if it tests the 18 day MVA (73.45), and look for a rapid move back up toward the high of 77.25. Strong money flow, buying and relative strength.
BUY POINT: A move back up on increased volume, perhaps after a test of the 18 day MVA.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (VAR HN; low open interest).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/var.html
Update:
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$28.61; +0.10; optionable (TQI): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
STATUS: The stock is in a fine shakeout as volume drops ever lower below average (122,200; avg. 521,454). TTEK tried to break out of a 6-month cup with handle last month but has instead pulled back from that attempt (June breakout high is 31.32) in what we consider a continuing handle (the June high is the handle high). Monday the stock closed just under the 18 day MVA (28.73), the high tapping resistance at the 10 day MVA (29.10). After a 4-day pullback and showing the doji here on the low volume, we are looking for the move back up. Money flow and buying look great. Target: $36.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over the 10 day MVA (29.10) on rising volume. Stop: 27.06 (just above the 200 day MVA). Breakout: 31.45, on volume of 782,000 or better. Stop: 29.25.
POSITION: Both: Stock and/or September $25 calls to buy (TQI IE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ttek.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS:
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
LLL found support as expected and looks ready to move back up. NVDA is in a good-looking pullback, and we're looking for support around 90 on the pullback after the breakout (has moved below the buy point).
ESRX (Express Scripts--$106.80; +3.27; optionable (XTQ): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX is trying to break out to an all-time high (high at the start of the base is 107), making it to 107.42 Thursday. It pulled back next day to test the 10 day MVA, bounced, then tested that support again Monday, bouncing back up for a tidy gain. It has a pattern of rising two sessions, pulling back a session, and then bounding higher another two sessions. A tremendous run and we may only get another rotation or two on this move up the 10 day MVA before it has to pullback to the next lower support at 100 or so unless it gives us a real strong volume break to the new high. Volume was lower at 642,500 (avg. 818,727), so that needs to top the high volume of last week (840,000) for a strong breakout. If unable to do that, the stock can settle down into a more stable consolidation around the support of the 10 day (102). Good money flow and buying, and relative strength has broken out ahead of price, which is a bullish indicator. Target: $111-116.
BUY POINT: Over 108.03 (Thursday's high) if it gives us a really high volume break to that new high (867,000 or better). Stop: 100.47. Pullback: Otherwise, we will look for a move back up from 102 (10 day MVA) or better, on strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $100 calls to buy (XTQ HT).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/esrx.html
Previous Leaders: BRCD tested the 50 day MVA on its low and on stronger volume looks ready to power up; see the weekend report for buy point, etc.
A potential 50 day MVA bounce play:
SEBL (Siebel--$46.87; -1.74; optionable (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: Heading for the 50 day MVA (45.76) on slightly stronger volume (8.8 million; avg. 17.1 million) the remains below average. It tapped just above that level today on the low (46.10) before it recovered to close higher. We are looking for a strong bounce back in the market rally from the 50 day MVA; in other words we think we might see it try that level again before it moves higher. The stock has rallied from the 50 day MVA the last three times it has pulled back to the support. Its last run was not as strong the previous, and the stock needs to take out the May high (55.90), but while the market is in the trading range, we will look at playing a potential move up when we see it. Money flow and buying look good. Initial target: $55-56, at the May highs.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a strong bounce back over 49.20 (intraday high). Stop:
45.76.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $40 calls to buy (SGW HH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sebl.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: Newer members of the portfolio are LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. Currently existing members are EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST.
THQI is holding support as volume drops off. It continues to look strong.
Testing the breakout:
LNCR (Lincare--$61.65; -1.30; optionable (LQN): Specialized Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout, dropping back toward the buy point of 61.38 as volume fell back since Thursday, increasing just slightly Monday (485,000; avg. 608,277). That is still below average, so we are looking for a bounce here if the stock pulls back to the 10 day MVA (60.77) which is likely. The low of 61.30 tested that pivot (buy) point, so we'd like to see the stock head back up from here, though if it bounces from the 10 day MVA and heads back up we can sure live with that. Target: $71.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a bounce from the 10 day MVA (61) on average or better volume. Stop: At or near the 50 day MVA (56.72).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (LQN HK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lncr.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
No reports on stocks in this portfolio tonight.
Put: May see more selling before the indexes find support.
DJX (1/100 Dj--$109.28; -0.49; optionable (DJV):
STATUS: Hit a low of 108.71 but pulled back up a bit on stronger volume of 855,400 (avg. 1.2 million). The index may try a test of the 18 day MVA (110.09) and if it fails to break over that, we will look for a put down to the 50 day MVA (108). On a move down from here, we will look at the play on a break of the 50 day, for a target of the 200 day MVA at 106.41 range.
BUY POINT: From the 110 range, or, on a break of the 50 day MVA (108). If the index breaks the 50 day, look for a move back up to test the level. Entry point is on a move down from there.
POSITION: From 110: August $110 puts to buy (DJV TF). From 108: August $108 puts to buy (DJV TD).
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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