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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: ARIA; BKHM; LF; MERQ; NUFO; RBK (getting ready to breakout); TZA
Best Plays:
1) CRA: Volume is surging in the pattern.
2) TMWD: Nice test of the breakout.
3) CYMI: Tanking.
4) CVM: Nice, nice pattern.
5) MERQ: Nice volume surge as it comes off the 50 day MVA.
6) RBK: Getting the volume as it heads for the breakout.
7) INTL: Starting to roll back over.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/01/2003
CRA (Applera--$11.63; -0.06; optionable): Scientific & technical
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CRA is completing the formation of the right shoulder to its 4 month base sporting strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow to go with that accumulation. It has made the move up off the 50 day MVA (11) to start to close the right shoulder, bouncing down from 12.20 on the intraday highs the past two sessions as volume jumped up well above average. Looking for it to make the breakout move. That is where we step in.
Volume: 722.9K Avg Volume: 487.09K
BUY POINT: $12.68 Volume=731K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.72
POSITION: CRA AV - Jan. $12.50c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cra.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
TMWD (Tumbleweed Communication--$5.43; -0.14; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmwd.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA (5.39). TMWD has made a strong run up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) after a mid-August test of the 50 day (4.33). The past three sessions it has ocme to rest on this support on lower, below average volume. This is its third test of the short term MVA and we are looking for a solid rebound on rising volume. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off of these levels, so still plenty of upside and we are looking to pick it up off a stronger volume move off this level.
Volume: 360.075K Avg Volume: 417.727K
BUY POINT: $5.82 Volume=627K Target=$7.28 Stop=$5.37
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tmwd.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
TTWO (Take-Two Intera--$35.6; +1.44; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttwo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TTWO blasted out of an 11 month reverse head and shoulders base to start September. It spent the rest of September coming back to test the move, dropping to 33 and then finding some legs. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Started moving again on Wednesday with volume moving up and back above average. Want to see more volume and clear some late September highs to enter.
Volume: 1.187M Avg Volume: 1.043M
BUY POINT: $36.25 Volume=1.6M Target=$43 Stop=$34.38
POSITION: TUO AG - Jan. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ttwo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/01/2003
CYMI (Cymer--$39.81; -1.35; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cymi.html
STATUS: Put. Tanking on volume as the market rallied, CYMI continued its move below the 50 day MVA (42.23), tanking the past two sessions on rising, above average volume. Plenty of downside to 36, but after two farily hard days of selling CYMI might try to give a bounce here to test the 50 day before continuing the fall.
Volume: 2.3M Avg Volume: 1.425M
BUY POINT: Test $42, then 41.72 on the way back down. From here: $40.94 Volume=2.1M Target=$36.75 Stop=$42.38
POSITION: CQG WI - Nov. 45p (-37 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cymi.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
PIXR (Pixar--$68.3; +1.65; optionable): Animated movies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Put. PIXR borke the 50 day MVA (68.64) Friday, tanked to 65, and has made a lower volume bounce up to test the breakdown. When it crashed through the 50 day it also broke some support near 68. Looking for the stock to fail in this lower volume test for a move lower to next support near 62.50.
Volume: 402.809K Avg Volume: 537.954K
BUY POINT: $67.45 Volume=750K Target=$63.75 Stop=$68.82
POSITION: PQJ WN - Nov. $70p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pixr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/29/2003
CVM (Cel-Sci Corp.--$0.96; +0.03; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to a 4 month cup base that started in early June after a strong run higher. A very solid pattern with low, below average volume at the bottom of the pattern and surging volume as it moved up to form the right sidie of the base. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding at 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow to go along with the excellent accumulation. Waiting for the move.
Volume: 442.5K Avg Volume: 574.454K
BUY POINT: $1.11 Volume=900K Target=$1.48 Stop=$1.01
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvm.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
ENDP (Endo Pharmaceuticals--$21.84; +1.39; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/endp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. The 18 day MVA was enough to send it higher. After tapping that level (20.08) to start the week ENDP jumped higher Wednesday on solid, above average trade. Great money flow and a relative strength breakout to go with the solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) in the three month base.
Volume: 1.101M Avg Volume: 850.227K
BUY POINT: New: 22.05 (orig. $21.75) Volume=1.3M Target=$26.12 Stop=$20.23
POSITION: IUK AD - Jan. $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/endp.html
Play Date: 09/09/2003
IFLO (I-Flow--$10.45; -0.14; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A nice lateral and slightly lower move over 10 to test the breakout from its 7 week flat base. Volume has backed off to well below average this week, and Wednesday IFLO showed a doji right on the 18 day MVA (10.37). That typically signals the end of a pullback.
Volume: 87.45K Avg Volume: 319.272K
BUY POINT: New: $11.24 (orig. $9.62) Volume=426K Target=New positions: $13.27 (orig. positions: $11.52; will look at taking some gain there and letting the rest run). Stop=$9.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Play Date: 08/27/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$47.6; +2; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (45.11). After a strong move peaked at 52, MERQ slid back but found its feet Wednesday on a nice volume surge as it rallied sharply off the 50 day MVA, clearing the 10 and 18 day MVA (47.39) as it did. Got the trade it needed at this key level. Looking at aggressive positions on a further move on volume.
Volume: 4.136M Avg Volume: 3.113M
BUY POINT: New: 48.06 (orig. $45.76) Volume=4.5M Target=$53.95 Stop=$44.79
POSITION: RQB AI - Jan. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/merq.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
MTCH (Metron Technology--$4.9; +0.35; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtch.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MCTCH is still working on a breakout from its short 5 week base. It has tried a couple of breakouts, but got caught in the selling the last attempt. After a quick 50 day MVA (4.01) Tuesday, MTCH was moving toward a breakout Wednesday but did not have the volume. Looks solid in the pattern and we will wait for the breakout move on strong trade.
Volume: 53.555K Avg Volume: 95.136K
BUY POINT: New: $4.98 (orig. $4.78) Volume=127K Target=$5.98 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtch.html
Play Date: 09/29/2003
NUFO (New Focus--$4.65; +0.16; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nufo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NUFO is moving toward the breakout in its 11 week base. Accumulation in the base is a strong 3 to 1 with money flow screaming ahead of the of price. Relative strength is making the breakout. Wednesday NUFO rallied on stronger, above average volume, running up to the breakout point and closing near its high. Strong action and we are looking for NUFO to make the breakout move Thursday.
Volume: 1.212M Avg Volume: 770.909K
BUY POINT: $4.71 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.85 Stop=$4.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nufo.html
Play Date: 09/24/2003
RBK (Reebok--$34.29; +0.86; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbk.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. RBK is starting the breakout move, rallying sharply off of the 50 day MVA (33.28) on a shot of above average volume. Looks ready to make the breakout from the 11 week base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume) and outstanding money flow.
Volume: 962K Avg Volume: 732.363K
BUY POINT: $34.46 Volume=1.1M Target=$41.35 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: RBK AG - Jan. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rbk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/24/2003
ATMI (ATMI, Inc.--$25.52; +0.17; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atmi.html
STATUS: Put. ATMI rebounded from the crash through the 50 day MVA (26.57), but could only make it to the 10 day MVA (26.06) on the high the past three sessions. After a low volume attempt Tuesday, ATMI shows a very tight doji on huge trade. Looks as if it is ready to churn lower.
Volume: 1.233M Avg Volume: 345.5K
BUY POINT: New: Has tested 26, now 25.35. (orig. $25.35). Volume=488K Target=$23 Stop=$26.88
POSITION: ASQ WE - Nov. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atmi.html
Play Date: 09/25/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$15.01; +0.04; optionable): Telecom processiong systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Put. CMVT continues to struggle below the 50 day MVA (15.58), showing a tight doji Wednesday just below the 10 day MVA (15.34). CMVT peaked in early September near 18 and then rolled over. It broke through the 50 day MVA last Wednesday and has been unable to take it back. Looking for it to fail here and start to fall on rising volume.
Volume: 2.033M Avg Volume: 2.721M
BUY POINT: $15.15 Volume=3M Target=$13.05 Stop=$15.85
POSITION: CQV WW - Nov. $17.50p (-83 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmvt.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
INTL (Inter-Tel--$24.48; -0.07; optionable): Telecom processing systems.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intl.html
STATUS: Double top. INTL has been unable to break back through the 50 day MVA (25.20), turning back down belw the 50 day on Wednesday. Has been holding 24 on the lows, and we wanto it to break below that level on strong trade for new positions.
Volume: 197.276K Avg Volume: 267.727K
BUY POINT: New: $23.96 (orig. $24.74). Volume=310K Target=$22.05 Stop=$25.35
POSITION: TPQ WE - Nov. $25p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/intl.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
PLT (Plantronics--$24.45; +0.58; optionable): Telecom headsets, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: Put. PLT continues to try the 50 day MVA (24.69), rallying Wednesday on above average volume but still unable to take that level, even on the big Wednesday rally. Now we need to see it turn lower on continued strong trade.
Volume: 470.4K Avg Volume: 295.545K
BUY POINT: $24.25 (orig. 23.95) Volume=300K Target=$22 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: PLT WE - Nov. $25p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock recommendation
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