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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: AVP; CFC; COLM; DCGN; HAR; KFX; MOBE; MYL; SYK
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/02/2003
ECIL (ECI Telecom--$3.94; +0.03; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecil.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ECIL broke from a 4 month flat base in September on explosive volume. The pattern sports strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent moneh flow and a relative strength breakout. ECIL has edged back to the 10 day MVA (3.88) on much lower, below average volume, showing a hammer doji at that level. Nice pullback in the selling and now it is ready to go.
Volume: 66.37K Avg Volume: 260.09K
BUY POINT: $4.08 Volume=300K Target=$5.12 Stop=$3.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecil.html
Play Date: 10/02/2003
CAND (Candies, Inc.--$2.2; -0.04; no options): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cand.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another stock that broke higher in late September on strong trade and is now coming back to test that move. Accumulation in the 4 month cup base is a solid 4 to 2. It peaked at 2.49 Tuesday and has since pulled back on very light volume. It rallied when the market sold, it tested when the market rallied. Looking for it to rally again on rising, above average volume. Great money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 157.83K Avg Volume: 159.636K
BUY POINT: $2.34 Volume=240K Target=$3.05 Stop=$2.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cand.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/02/2003
AVY (Avery Dennison--$52.40; +0.12; optionable): Paper & paper products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avy.html
STATUS: Put. AVY plowed through the 50 day MVA (52.83) two weeks back and tumbled to 48. The past week it has rebounded on above average but still lower volume until it showed a doji Thursday right below the 50 day. After a recovery, such a candlestick pattern at resistance can indicate a turn back down. On top of that the stock is in a continuing downtrend that started back in May of 2002. It has tumbled down time and again on this downtrend, and is now approaching the trendline at 54. The doji at the 50 day indicates it is ready to roll back down, but want to see strong volume.
Volume: 865.4K Avg Volume: 619.59K
BUY POINT: $52.04 Volume=1M Target=$49 Stop=$52.88
POSITION: AVY WK - Nov. $55p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avy.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 09/27/2003
QMM (Q Comm Intl.--$7.6; +0.02; no options): Telecom: purchase and resale of prepaid products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qmm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A new issue in June, QMM charged higher out of its reverse head and shoulders to end September, and is now working laterally over the 10 day MVA (7.47) on very low, below average volume. It is settling down nicely after this breakout and test. Accumulation in the base is a solid 5 to 2 accompanied by strong money flow and a relative strength breakout with the stock last week. Looking for that break higher on above average volume.
Volume: 16K Avg Volume: 31.272K
BUY POINT: $7.78 Volume=50K Target=$9.78 Stop=$7.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qmm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/30/2003
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$52.63; -0.15; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
STATUS: Put. KLAC continues to struggle below the 50 day MVA (53.69), rallying back up to tap that level on the Thursday high. As it has come back the past two sessions the volume has faded further below average. Looking for volume to increase as it rolls back down, something that could happen with a jobs disappointment. Want to see the stronger trade.
Volume: 7.727M Avg Volume: 8.73M
BUY POINT: $51.32 Volume=10M Target=$48 Stop=$53.82
POSITION: KCQ WK - Nov. 55p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/klac.html
Play Date: 10/01/2003
PIXR (Pixar--$68.26; -0.04; optionable): Animated movies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Put. After plunging through the 50 day MVA (68.62) last week, PIXR has rallied back to test that level on lower and lower volume. Thursday it showed a very tight doji below the 50 day on very, very light volume. This is a classic sign of a further fall coming as fewer and fewer buyers bought into the stock as it rallied. Now it looks ready to rollover, and on a turn backon rising volume is where we enter.
Volume: 181.442K Avg Volume: 523.863K
BUY POINT: $67.45 Volume=750K Target=$63.75 Stop=$68.82
POSITION: PQJ WN - Nov. $70p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pixr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
ACV: Forecast 10-23 with earnings or a board meeting 11-3.
APOL: Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 10-08-03.
AVP: Forecast 10-28 before the open with earnings.
CFC: Forecast 10-23-03.
COCO: Forecast 10-29 or on 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes.
CPWM: No announcement with the 9-30 board meeting.
DG: No split with earnings on 8-28-03. Looking to pinpoint another day.
DHR: No announcement with the 9-17-03 board meeting. Researching the next date.
ERES: Forecast 10-22-03.
ETN: Forecast 10-13 with earnings or 10-22 with a board meeting.
GDW: Forecast 10-15-03 in conjunction with earnings.
HAR: Announced its split Wednesday, ahead of schedule (forecast 10-29 with earnings). Moving well.
JAH: Forecast 10-27-03.
JBLU: Forecast 10-23 with a board meeting.
LM: Forecast 10-22 with earnings.
MERQ: Forecast to announce a split on 10-16-03 in conjunction with earnings.
NATI: Forecast 10-20-03.
ORLY: Forecast 10-21-03.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.=
SYK: Forecast 10-15-03.
UOPX: Forecast to announce a split on 10-7 before the market opens with earnings.
XRAY: Forecast to announce 10-21-03.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves. The following is a summary table of current pre-announcement plays.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$66.89; +0.99; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 10-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Flat. AVP is making the breakout from its month long flat base/flying plateau, moving well the past two sessions on stronger, above average volume. Closed off the high (67.52), but moving well and still a buy at this point for new positions or additional positions to current positions.
Volume: 1.061M Avg Volume: 945.272K
BUY POINT: $66.68 Volume=1.7M Target=$76.32 Stop=$64.42
POSITION: AVP AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$58.87; -0.38; optionable): Education & training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. COCO was hitting stride Wednesday, coming off the 50 day MVA test in the pattern of the 6 week base. Solid volume on the Wednesday move and then took a breather Thursday, racing ahead but coming back and showing a tight doji. Still in excellent shape and looking for another break higher for new or additional positions. Want to see the volume. This once can run like the wind when it gets going.
Volume: 686.825K Avg Volume: 687K
BUY POINT: New: $59.42 Volume=1.1M Target=$69 Stop=$55.78
POSITION: UCS BL - Feb. $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/14/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$54.97; +0.97; optionable): Sportswear. Forecast to announce a split on 10-23-03 after the market closes
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-2-01 at stock price of $21.84. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Flat base. COLM is heading for the breakout from its 4 month flat base. Volume surged Wednesday as it moved off the 50 day MVA (52.20) Wednesday. It was back down to average on the Thursday move, but still solid. The next buy point is when it clears the late September high (55.71).
Volume: 203.678K Avg Volume: 218.909K
BUY POINT: New: $55.81 (orig. $54.12) Volume=475K Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.88
POSITION: TQQ AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 09/27/2003
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$35.83; +1.11; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. ERES was moving in a nice flying plateau and then started to break higher the last week of September. It failed and became very volatile but looks to have settled down the past two sessions, holding over the 18 day MVA (34.52). Thursday it was up again though volume was not. After this volatile trading week we are looking for volume to rally on the next move up to take new or additional positions.
Volume: 497.686K Avg Volume: 691.909K
BUY POINT: $36.88 Volume=981K Target=$43.94 Stop=$35.26
POSITION: UDB AG - Jan. $35c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
Play Date: 09/06/2003
JAH (Jarden--$37.35; -0.08; no options): Rubber & Plastics. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 2 for1 split on 5-6-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $37.10. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. JAH continues to test, holding the 10 day MVA (37.32) in a very tight range on very low volume. It is just about as good a pullback as you could ask for. Just waiting for it to make the break on volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the prior base.
Volume: 115.8K Avg Volume: 193.954K
BUY POINT: $38.05 (orig. $33.72) Volume=270K Target=$44.45 Stop=$35.71
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 08/27/2003
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$48.09; +0.49; optionable): Technical software. Forecast 10-16 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $87. It has announced prior to that in the $45 to $50 range, so it is in the game. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company had sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (45.11). Continuing the solid move off the 50 day MVA (45.23), MERQ cleared the 18 day MVA (47.42) on a strong volume surge. Still a buy at this point on this solid rebound off the 50 day MVA, showing volume a lot of stocks are not.
Volume: 4.072M Avg Volume: 3.126M
BUY POINT: New: 48.22 (orig. $45.76) Volume=4.5M Target=$53.95 Stop=$44.79
POSITION: RQB AI - Jan. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/merq.html
Play Date: 09/30/2003
RI (Ruby Tuesday--$24.43; -0.07; optionable): Restaurants, casual dining. Forecast to announce a split on 10-7-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings and with annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-11-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $19.10. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 10-7-03 at 11:00 am CT at which time no additional shares are authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ri.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues in the tight handle to its 12 week base. RI is finding intraday support at 24 and rebounding, moving on rising, average volume Thursday. Accumulation in the base is a strong 5 to 2 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Volume has been edging higher, and we are just being patient and waiting to see if it delivers a nice breakout from this base.
Volume: 444.2K Avg Volume: 531.59K
BUY POINT: $25.28 Volume=750K Target=$30.35 Stop=$24.06
POSITION: RI AX - Jan. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ri.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
SYK (Stryker--$76.49; +1.68; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-15-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-19-00 at a stock price of $73.
The annual shareholder meeting was 4-22-03 no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Flat base. We have been waiting, and now SYK is starting the move after that higher volume test of the 50 day MVA (74.66) on Wednesday. Thursday SYK shot higher on lower but still solid above average trade. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the 7 week pattern, and we are ready to move in on the next move.
Volume: 821.3K Avg Volume: 734.5K
BUY POINT: $77.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$88.65 Stop=$75.05
POSITION: SYK AO - Jan. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
Play Date: 08/28/2003
XRAY (Dentsply--$45.41; +0.03; optionable): Dental supplies. Forecast to announce a split on 10-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: After a strong move two weeks back, XRAY made a quick 50 day MVA (43.77) test and bounced back to hold over the 18 day MVA (44.89) the past three sessions as volume has swelled to above average all three sessions. Strong money flow and relative strength has broken out. Nice, lateral move preparing for the next break higher.
Volume: 514.454K Avg Volume: 384.909K
BUY POINT: New: $46.05 (orig. $45.58) Volume=625K Target=$54.55 Stop=$43.38
POSITION: XEQ AI - Jan. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 09/20/2003
CELL (Brightpoint--$32.83; +1.68; optionable): Outsourcing services for global wireless telecom. Splits 3:2 on 10-16-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CELL has held 30 and is trying to make the rebound, rising Thursday on lower but still above average volume. Made the test and is now ready for the move.
Volume: 930.329K Avg Volume: 696.318K
BUY POINT: New: 33.05. Volume=538K Target=$36 initial Stop=$29.94
POSITION: ULN AG - Jan. 35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 08/09/2003
ZMH (Zimmer Holdings--$56.18; +0.48; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zmh.html
STATUS: Test 10 day MVA (54.74). ZMH moved off the 10 day MVA (55.15) Wednesday, trying to break over the recent resistance at 56. Volume, however, has dropped off on the move. Need to see more trade. ZMH is another medical appliance stock performing well despite the selling. Need to see more volume on the break higher.
Volume: 1.211M Avg Volume: 1.806M
BUY POINT: New: $56.45 (orig. $51.12) Volume=3M Target=$59.55 (initial positions). We will let ZMH run as long as it maintains the trend. Stop=$53.46
POSITION: ZMH LK - Dec. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zmh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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