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stock watch, stock trading
Begin Part 3 of 4
Check out LNCR. It looks ready for the move back up.
KRB (MBNA Corp--$35.92; -1.06; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-10-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm an earnings date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-14-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $40. KRB is a holding company and does not hold annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has formed a cup with handle since January, but today dipped back for the second time in the handle to test its 50 day MVA (35.84). The stock had been holding the 10 day MVA (36.71) with consecutive dojis, but gapped down to another doji today. Volume was sharply higher at 2.66 million (average 2.47 million), and the pattern and volume indicate a bounce, but we will need to see a move up that is sustained back up toward the handle high of 38.45.
BUY POINT: 38.58 on volume of 3.7 million.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (KRB IG).
CEFT (Concord EFS--$53.52; +0.48; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-24-01 at 9:30 am CST at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: Broke out last week from a lateral consolidation it had formed after breaking from an ascending wedge and then a larger cup pattern (from early March, with highs at 50). It tested the 10 day MVA at its low of 51.60 Tuesday, rebounding well on increased volume that approached the average (3.69 million; average 3.83 million) as it hit a high of 54.20. We will see if the stock can continue up with increased volume, or if it tests the 10 day again. Relative strength has broken out, and buying is solid. Looking at the 60 range on a continued move.
BUY POINT: From here A move over 54.20 on above average volume. Pullback A move up after holding the 52 range on a pullback.
POSITION: Both buy points Stock and/or September $50 calls to buy (EQF IJ).
FISV (Fiserv--$56.80; +0.50; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-25-99 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $52. FISV's last two splits were announced in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The company currently has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FISV is trying to make its way back up after having tested its breakout from a cup with handle (formed out of a large descending wedge). It is making some pretty wild intraday price swings in the process, but holding its 10 day MVA (55.93) to close. Today the stock touched all the way down to recent lows at 54 before rallying back hard, still on rather weak volume (876,300; average 1.44 million). An encouraging turnaround, and the stock is forming something of a pennant pattern, but we are looking for a break over the recent high for positions, watching for volume to kick in.
BUY POINT: A move over 58 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (FTQ IK).
ADVP (Advancepcs--$61.52; -1.23; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has been trending up this year, and has recently dipped back below its short-term MVA's (10 day at 62.67) to visit the 50 day MVA (59.27). It gapped back below the 10 day today, but after tapping up to that level at its high the stock pulled back to close. ADVP has suffered from low volume on attempted moves up on the recent run (536,200 today; average 949,000). Strong stocks often test their 50 day MVA's occasionally after trending along the short-term MVA's. We will see if ADVP make a strong recovery. The high is 68.59.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move over 65 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (QVD FL).
FDC (First Data--$66.99; -0.06; optionable): Working on a forecast date. Earnings were announced on 4-12-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2 for 1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FDC has been struggling to make a new high, but this week has retreated for the fourth time from the 69 range. The stock broke from a cup with handle in April, and after testing the break has made efforts but cannot hold a strong move up, trading in a range from 64 to 68. These can be a prelude to a big move in the stock as it consolidates again after a breakout. Today it hit 68.85 at its intraday high Monday before retreating, tapping the 50 day MVA at its low of 64.78 today before recovering. Volume dipped, however (1.2 million; average 1.65 million), and we will need to see a solid move up for positions.
BUY POINT: Breakout A new high on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (FDC HM).
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.
New Pre-Split Plays:
KKD (Krispy Kreme--$71.03; +2.08; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective June 15.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kkd.html
STATUS: Has been quite a story, surging up after its March split, and then announcing another split as it moved to the NYSE. The stock's move hit 77.09 before pulling back, and it has caught support at its 18 day MVA (66.97) on its last two moves down. Today its gapped down to that support, pushing back up intraday. The high on the last move was 72, and we will see if the stock can make a last run into the split.
PLAY: A move over 72, with stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (KKD HN).
DP (Diagnostic Products--$78.20; -0.40; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 6-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dp.html
STATUS: Broke out in April, then made another move in May out of a lateral consolidation. The stock hit a high of 83.55 before pulling back, today testing its 18 day MVA (76.80, with some late-May lows) at its low before pulling back up for a tight doji. Volume increased to 56,500 (average 62,500), and we will see if the stock can make a move from here going into the split next week. Solid relative strength, money flow and buying.
PLAY: A move over 79, with stock and/or September $75 calls to buy (DP IO - low open interest).
Continuing Pre-Split Plays:
SDS (Sungard Data--$58.25; +0.28; optionable): Announced a 2:1 split, effective June 18.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Suffered a downgrade and dropped out of its fine pattern (cup with handle) last week. The stock is holding its 50 day MVA (56.92), tapping that level at its lows the last two sessions before closing with dojis. We will look for a move back up, but we will have to see something significant before we are interested again. It is a strong stock, so we will see if it can weather this storm.
PLAY: Aggressive A move back over 60, with stock and/or July or October $55 calls to buy (SDS GK or SDS JK) to buy.
FRED (Fred's--$29.35; +0.20; no options): Retail. Splits 2:1 effective 6-19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fred.html
STATUS: Has made a decent push back up the last couple of sessions, but could be ready to test its short-term MVA's again (10 and 18 day at 28.32 and 27.64, respectively). The stock broke from a cup pattern in May, and since has made four surges off of the short-term MVA's. The doji pattern today suggests a pullback on this move, and if it can hold the 10 day we will look for it to make another move going into the split. Protect existing positions and then prepare for the next entry point. The recent high is 30.20.
PLAY: Pullback A move up after another test of the 10 day MVA, with stock.
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$29.45; -1.60; optionable): Manufacturing. Splits 2:1 effective June 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Last week's bounce from the 50 day MVA (28.31) gave us a good move, but did not last, as SHFL has dropped back the last two sessions. Today it hit 27 at its low but managed to make a strong recovery as volume shot up to 494,300 (average is 285,100). The stock has made some solid moves up from the 50 day, and the aggressive can try to play another such move. The recent high is 32.78 (last Friday), with the all-time high ahead at 34.95.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over 31 (10 day MVA), with stock and/or August $25 calls to buy (SFQ HE low open interest), protecting positions carefully as it move up.
FCEL (Fuelcell--$68.75; -11.83; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective June 20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcel.html
STATUS: Tanked today on news that it was conducting a public offering, and the stock closed back below its 50 day MVA (70.49). The 200 day is just below at 65.85, so we will see if we get a bounce to get a better exit point, and we will carefully watch to see if it can make it back over the 50 day MVA.
ESRX (Express Scripts--$105.16; -1.64; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective on or about June 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX has made a great move since its split announcement, and hit as high as 108.03 last week. The stock continues to impress by holding firm over its 10 day MVA (102.68), and today gapped down slightly but showed a doji on lower volume (539,300; average 737,000). We will see if it visits the 10 day again, or if it can make a move back up to a new high.
PLAY: Pullback After showing on a move down that it can hold support at the 10 day MVA, a move back up on strong volume, with stock and/or August $100 calls to buy (XTQ HT). From here The aggressive can play a strong move up from here, carefully watching the high of 108.03 as resistance, with stock and/or August $105 calls to buy (XTQ HA).
LNCR (Lincare Holdings--$61.44; -0.21; optionable): Health Services. Splits 2:1 effective 6-25-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Made a nice breakout last week, but has pulled back from the high of 65.88. The stock has dropped on low volume (432,500 today; average 599,000), and looks to have found support at the 10 day MVA (60.89). Today the stock showed a tight doji pattern over that support, and off of that pattern we could see a strong move back up.
PLAY: A strong move over 62, with stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (LQN HL).
DAKT (Daktronics--$32.80; +1.38; no options): Scientific & Technical Instruments. Splits 2:1 effective June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dakt.html
STATUS: Made an outstanding move from its 50 day MVA (25.64) the last few sessions, but could be topping. The stock surged up today as volume took off to 391,600 (average 72,800), but it closed well off of the intraday high of 34.50. That usually indicates a pullback, and we will look for it to hold the 30 range on the move down. We may get a gap higher in the morning, and if it starts to sell off from there, we will exit current positions. After pulling back to 30, we can look at another pre-split move. Good relative strength, money flow and buying.
PLAY: A move back up after a lower-volume pullback to the 30 range, with stock.
FHCC (First Health Group--$47.90; -0.46; no options): The 2:1 split is effective June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/f/fhcc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-19-98 at a stock price of $29.57. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-22-01.
STATUS: Since pulling back from its breakout in early May, FHCC has done nothing, not even being able to capitalize very much on its split announcement. Monday it crashed back through its 50 day MVA (93.09). Dropping, but will keep an eye on it.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
ACF (Americredit--$48.03; -2.14; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ACF has fallen back out of the fine consolidation it had formed. Today it dropped heavily and on big volume (2.84 million; average 737,000), tapping its 50 day MVA at its low of 46.40 but recovering a bit from that point. The stock has made a very strong run for us on the report, making a great move mid-May and establishing a high of 55. Not a play from here, so we will see if it can recover.
ASFC (Astoria Financial--$56.65; -0.41; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 9:30 ET.
STATUS: ASFC has not been able to keep anything going. It is not collapsing, however, holding its 50 day MVA (56.08) on the drop back from its handle consolidation (formed after its broke from a saucer pattern in late April), but again fell back to test that level at its low of 56.25 today. It managed to close at its short-term MVA's as volume has been strengthening, so we will see if it can hold this support and try a move back up. The high on this move was 57.50, with the all-time high at 58.50. We have to be patient with this one.
BUY POINT: Aggressive Over 57.50 with continued strong volume (430,300; average 360,700). Breakout Over 58.50 on increased volume.
POSITION: Both buy points Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (AQR GK).
End Part 3 of 4
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stock watch
stock trading
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