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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: BKHM; DRIV; FLSH; HPOL; KOMG; NUAN; NUFO; OPLK; OPSW; PPHM
Best Plays:
1) ABMD: Nice low volume breakout test.
2) EGOV: Another nice breakout test.
3) BRCM: Did not continue the move Monday, but still looks good.
4) IFLO: Ready to break higher out of the lateral consolidation.
5) MTCH: Starting toward the breakout on rising volume.
6) TWAV: Just needs some more volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2003
ABMD (Abiomed--$8.63; +0.04; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ABMD blasted from a 4 month cup with handle base in late September on a huge volume surge. It has moved laterally the past week, holding over the 10 day MVA (8.31) as volume backs off. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). ABMD may come back a bit more to test the 10 day MVA before starting higher, but it is a solid breakout and an orderly test. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout are the icing on the cake.
Volume: 36.442K Avg Volume: 101.727K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=175K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: IBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abmd.html
Play Date: 10/06/2003
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$4.62; -0.13; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Testing the break from a 9 week base sporting 2 to 1 accumulation. The short base was actually part of a larger16 month pattern. In any event, EGOV exploded on huge volume, racing up to 5 before starting the current below average volume pullback. It is holding 10 on the close (4.65) after testing 4.50 on the intraday lows. Looks as if 4.50 is the support level it will use to start the next leg higher. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 85.89K Avg Volume: 234.636K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=264K Target=$5.75 Stop=$4.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 10/06/2003
MER (Merrill Lynch--$56.74; +1.08; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Flat base. MER is working on the breakout from an 11 week base showing strong 5 to 2 accumulation. It has made a series of higher lows, using the 50 day MVA (53.59) as it makes those higher lows. Financial stocks are coming together, and we are looking for a high volume breakout from MER to start a position.
Volume: 3.999M Avg Volume: 5.467M
BUY POINT: $57.62 Volume=6.5M Target=$66.25 Stop=$54.98
POSITION: MER AK - Jan. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mer.html
Play Date: 10/06/2003
RETK (Retek--$8.11; +0.43; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/retk.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. RETK is reay to make the breakout from its 4 month pattern (there are a lot of 4 month bases right now, the second wave of bases). We like these triangles (higher and higher lows with a constant top that builds pressure from below) because the breakouts can be explosive. Accumulation is 3 to 2, indicating that there has been overall accumulaiton of the stock. It has rallied well off the bottom of the pattern the past week, starting the breakout move Monday. Volume has swelled above average the past three sessions, and we want to see a continued volume increase as it heads for the breakaway move.
Volume: 674.036K Avg Volume: 517.545K
BUY POINT: $8.22 Volume=776K Target=$9.95 Stop=$7.64
POSITION: QRD AU - Jan. $7.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/retk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/04/2003
BRCM (Broadcom--$29.16; +0.37; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BRCM continued Friday's move but volume fell well off pace, not even close to what we were looking for. Indeed it could not hold the move even though it made the buy point intraday. No problem; just need to be patient and let it resume on better trade, remembering it had a solid volume session Friday. Accumulation is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) in the solid 12 week base.
Volume: 7.607M Avg Volume: 12.78M
BUY POINT: $29.25 Volume=20M Target=$35.12 Stop=$27.15
POSITION: RCQ AY - Jan. $27.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
CHL (China Mobile--$13.8; +0.12; optionable): Mobile telecom services on mainland China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Worked a bit higher Monday in the pattern, but volume backed off to just below average. Still very nice as CHL puts together a nice 12 week base that is part of a larger 12 month reverse head and shoulders. Accumulation is solid at 3 to 1. Again we like these patterns because they tend to be explosive when they make the breakout. Excellent volume Friday, and looking for CHL to resume the move and provide the breakout on another strong volume session.
Volume: 483.5K Avg Volume: 491.09K
BUY POINT: $13.87 Volume=730K Target=$16.65 Stop=$13.21
POSITION: CHL LV - Dec. $12.50c (89 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chl.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$10.37; +0.02; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working laterally in the 5 week flat base after that nice surge in late August. Showed a doji Monday as it went nowhere on no volume. Money flow continues to surge up ahead of the stock as it moves laterally, and with that divergene we are looking for EMBT to make the next break higher for the next entry point.
Volume: 109.994K Avg Volume: 233K
BUY POINT: New: $10.88 (orig. $9.33) Volume=400K Target=New positions: 13 (orig. positions: $11.12) Stop=$9.78
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/embt.html
Play Date: 09/22/2003
IFLO (I-Flow--$11; +0.58; no options): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still a nice flat move over the 18 day MVA (10.49) on very low volume as IFLO sets up for the next leg higher. It broke from a 6 week base in early September, and has formed a nice consolidation. Great accumuation and money flow. A good session Monday off the 18 day, and now just needs some volume.
Volume: 174.563K Avg Volume: 305.909K
BUY POINT: $11.06 Volume=375K Target=$13.26 Stop=$10.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
MTCH (Metron Technology--$5; +0.09; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtch.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MTCH continues to bang its head at 5, rallying back to that level Monday on rising though still below average volume after it gapped to the 10 day MVA (4.77) to open the session. Looks ready to make the move. A nice 6 week base sporting solid 4 to 0 accumulation.
Volume: 41.775K Avg Volume: 94.863K
BUY POINT: New: $5.08 (orig. $4.78) Volume=127K Target=$5.98 Stop=$4.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtch.html
Play Date: 09/20/2003
PPHM (Peregrine Pharma--$2.33; +0.14; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pphm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting the next leg but did not get any better volume Monday. PPHM broke from its 4 month cup with handle base in September and has made a nice test down to the 18 day MVA (2.06). Strong money flow to match the solid 4 to 0 accumulation in the base. Just waiting for a bit more volume.
Volume: 1.362M Avg Volume: 1.631M
BUY POINT: New: $2.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$2.95 Stop=$2.01
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pphm.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
SCMR (Sycamore Networks--$5.1; +0.19; optionable): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scmr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice jump Monday but not enough volume. A former high flier that crashed and burned ($200 in January 2000 to $2 in September 2002), SCMR has been slowly putting the pieces back together. It formed a 3 month cup base in June to September, broke out, and rallied to 5.50 and then tested back to the 50 day at 4.50. Money flow remains very strong as it does, a nice addition to the stellar 7 to 1 accumulation in the base. Need to see some stronger volume, but looks solid.
Volume: 2.004M Avg Volume: 2.098M
BUY POINT: $5.12 Volume=3.1M Target=$6.41 Stop=$4.76
POSITION: SMZ AA - Jan. $5c (52 delta) &.or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scmr.html
Play Date: 10/02/2003
TWAV (Therma-Wave--$3.61; +0.15; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twav.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting to move up off the 18 day MVA (3.20) after the strong breakout from its 3 month cup with handle base in mid-September. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 4 to 1 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume) as money flow continues to rise. Not bad volume Monday, but want to see it above average as it makes the move.
Volume: 469.429K Avg Volume: 490.772K
BUY POINT: $3.65 Volume=600K Target=$4.75 Stop=$3.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/twav.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/02/2003
AVY (Avery Dennison--$52.45; -0.1; optionable): Paper & paper products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avy.html
STATUS: Put. Still faltering at the 50 day MVA (52.80) for the third session as volume fades even lower. Falling money flow and under distribution, but need to see it roll over and through the 18 day MVA (51.95) on rising volume.
Volume: 357.7K Avg Volume: 604.045K
BUY POINT: New: $51.88 (orig. $52.04) Volume=1M Target=$49 Stop=$52.88
POSITION: AVY WK - Nov. $55p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avy.html
Play Date: 10/04/2003
DGIN (Digital Insight--$19.71; -0.34; optionable): Consumer services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgin.html
STATUS: Put. Starting to roll over after tapping the 10 day MVA (20.59) on the Friday high and falling back. Just want to see volume rise on the further move lower. After peaking on a nice move through September, DGIN bounced off a 50 day MVA test, but then could not hold the move and plowed through the 50 day (21.29) two weeks back.
Volume: 413.221K Avg Volume: 514.909K
BUY POINT: New: $19.62 (orig. $19.85) Volume=783K Target=$17.85 Stop=$20.85
POSITION: UGU WD - Nov. $20p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dgin.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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